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Big McLargehuge

Fragile Traveler
May 9, 2002
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Alright, well, due to requests here's a return of my Top 2021 Prospects List...

Adopting the standard 2-8 rating system this time around while adding the Hockey's Future letter grade for risk factor.
How the 2-8 rating system works: 8 - Elite (potential HoF), 7 - All-Star, 6 - Above Average/Middle of the Rotation, 5 - Average Starter/Bottom of the Rotation, 4 - Bench/Bullpen, 3 - Call-Up, 2 - Organizational Depth
The letters are as expected - A for a lock, B for likely, C for possible, D for low floor/higher ceiling, F for total darkhorse. Baseball scouting does not use these letter grades, so expect my scores to be slightly higher than the pros will say for prospects in the low minors as I get to use those D & F grades...and baseball prospects are absurdly volatile, so an A grade is basically impossible. The gap between a 6B and a 5.5F is much larger than it'd appear...I'd just prefer this system to having the latter half of the list being nothing but 4.5s.
Oh, and the West Virginia Black Bears (low A NY/Penn League) will be referred to as Morgantown below to avoid confusion with the SALLY (South Atlantic League) West Virginia Power (Charleston).

Rank. Player, Position Height, Weight, DoB, Bats/Hits, How Acquired, Projected Opening Day Team Grade
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP 6'7", 213, 8.23.93, L/R, 2011 Draft - 5th Round, 152nd Overall, Altoona (AA), 7C
Well now, that was unexpected. Given Glasnow's meteoric rise to prominence in his first couple years in the system the best that could have been hoped of him going into A+ as a 20 year-old was that his numbers wouldn't fall off too much...but Glasnow put up some Dominek Hasek numbers in Bradenton. A 1.74 ERA in 124.1 innings, 157 Ks/57 BB, 1.05 WHIP, the lowest batting average against in all of the minors (.174)...and this came after missing most of the first month of the season with a back injury.
AA will be another transition, but unlike last year there is the possibility of a late season promotion if all goes well. He's earned his reputation as a Top 3 pitching prospect in baseball with his stuff, and if he further refines his control he could end the season #1 there, with him and Lucas Giolito being the clear leaders of the pack at this stage of their development (Giolito being a year behind Glasnow, but coming with a 1st round pedigree...as if the Nationals need more pitching).
2014: Bradenton (A+): 23 G/GS, 12-5, 1.74 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 124.1 IP, 157/57 SO/BB
2015 Outlook: AA Altoona for the first 4 months of the season and a potential promotion to Indianapolis over the final weeks of the season.

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP 6'5", 245, 11.18.91, R/R, 2010 Draft - 1st Round, 2nd Overall, DNP, 6B
Sometimes the script and reality just don't align. Taillon was a potential June call-up entering last season, but instead he missed the entire season after having Tommy John Surgery. The good news is that the recovery is going well and he's on target to return to the mound in the first couple months of the season, the bad news is that he isn't likely to be a factor in the Majors until September because of it, and I wouldn't be against keeping him in AAA all year unless he's blowing everyone away.
2014: DNP
2015 Outlook: AAA Indianapolis upon returning from injury and for at least 15 starts. A potential September call-up; August if things go better than expected.

3. Austin Meadows, OF, 6'3", 200, 5.3.95, L/L, 2013 Draft - 1st Round, 9th Overall, West Virginia (A), 6C
Meadows is what you could call a luxury, an outfielder with the athleticism to play center and the bat to play the corners. That package means that the Pirates won't be rushing Meadows through the system, which should help the 19 year-old reach the Majors with a running start. The only thing that is preventing Meadows from being a potential 5-tool player is an average arm, but otherwise he has the bat to provide a solid average and 20 home runs to go with good defense and great baserunning. Meadows only played a handful of games in rookie ball before jumping straight to A-Ball and will likely remain at that level for 2015 as there is no reason to be aggressive with him.
2014: Bristol (Rk): 5 G/17 PA .071/.235/.071, .307 OPS, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB
Pirates (Rk): 2 G/6 PA 1.000/1.000/2.000, 3.000 OPS, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB
West Virginia (A): 38 G/165 PA, .322/.388/.486, .874 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB
2015 Outlook: A return to West Virginia that could last the entire season, with a chance at a promotion to Bradenton at the end of the season. The Pirates are historically very conservative at the A levels and Meadows won't be rushed. Expect the running game to be played with this year, as he largely had a red light last year.

4. Josh Bell, 1B, 6'2", 233, 8.8.92, S/R, 2011 Draft - 2nd Round, 61st Overall, Altoona (AA), 6C
Built like a bull, Bell's $5 million bonus for a 2nd rounder was, unfortunately, a catalyst in baseball 'fixing' their draft bonus system because they just can't have a team like Pittsburgh throwing money at draftees when they can't do the same in free agency...a different gripe for a different thread, Bell is Pirates' property and he made the expected move to first last year and was recently listed as the top 1B prospect in baseball...which is both telling of Bell and the dearth of 1B prospects out there. Bell has a bat that can hit for average and power from both sides, something sorely missing from the Pirates current build, and he comes with the fielding capabilities of a pure RF...something that is far more valuable for basically any other team than the Pirates, thanks to PNC Park's dimensions. Missing the bulk of a year, after not playing professionally in his draft year (okay, that part did have to be fixed), has delayed his progress somewhat, but he was advanced enough out of high school to blow past the rookie/A- levels out of the draft to begin with. The hope for 2015 is that the transition to 1B works (he was named the top 1B prospect despite not playing a game at the position yet) and that he shows some more of that power he had in high school.
2014: Bradenton (A+): 84/363, .335/.384/.502, .886 OPS, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB
Altoona (AA): 24/102, .287/.343/.309, .652 OPS, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 4 SB

5. Nick Kingham, RHP, 6'5", 227, 11.8.91, R/R, 2010 Draft - 4th Round, 117th Overall, Indianapolis (AAA), 6C
Kingham was a mess at the start of 2014, which could have been a result of over-confidence given that he'd already shown what he could do in AA for half a season. Regardless of what the reasoning was for his slow start, Kingham rebounded and put together a solid split season between Altoona & Indianapolis. As it stands Kingham looks like the rich man's middle-of-the-rotation starter - he already has 3 + pitches (fastball, changeup, curve) and has good speed (sitting 92-95; hitting 98), while projecting to be a workhorse type. I don't like making player comparisons, but Kingham reminds me of James Shields with a bit more speed and a bit less control.
2014: Altoona (AA): 12 G/GS, 1-7, 3.04 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 71 IP, 54 K/25 BB
Indianapolis (AAA): 14 G/GS, 5-4, 3.58 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 88 IP, 65 K/27 BB
2015 Outlook: Kingham will open the season in Indianapolis and could potentially be a June call-up, but the log-jam of potential starters may push him back. A full season in AAA wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen.

6. Alen Hanson, 2B/SS, 5'11", 170, 10.22.92, 2009 IFA - Dominican Republic, Altoona (AA), 6C
The question with Hanson has always been if his defense could improve to the point where he could stay at short. At this stage of his development that appears unlikely, but thankfully for the Pirates he’s no longer the lone SS prospect in the system and there isn’t a need for the position in the Majors at the moment. As a 2B prospect he carries less value, but he jumps into the elite tier of 2B prospects with only Atlanta’s Jose Peraza being above him at this point. The switch will also help in the regard that Hanson’s range is going to be significantly above average at the position and the arm strength issues will cease being an issue. If Walker isn’t retained then expect Hanson to be our second baseman of the future. Hanson profiles to be a lead-off type with good speed and decent pop. Hanson's 12 triples blew past the competition in the Eastern League last year (teammate Keon Broxton had 9, no one else had more than 7) and his 11 home runs were 3rd amongst middle infielders.
2014: Altoona (AA): 118/482, .280/.326/.442, .786 OPS, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 25 SB
2015 Outlook: A full season in AAA waits ahead for Hanson, who could potentially join the Pirates once Indy's season ends. The transition to second base is only ~20 games in, so that'll be the primary focus.

7. Reese McGuire, C, 6'0", 211, 3.2.95, L/R, 2013 Draft - 1st Round, 14th Overall, West Virginia (A), 6C
McGuire rounds out the 2nd tier of Pirates prospects for one reason and one reason only - he's a 19 year-old catcher while the rest are closer to the Majors. McGuire's transition into the minors has gone smoother than anyone could have hoped and his defense has shown through - including one stat that'll make Pirates fans salivate, a 39% caught stealing rate last year despite that skill being de-emphasized by coaches in the low minors. His hitting stats are unimpressive, but he's holding his own despite playing full-season ball as a 19 year-old. The result in all of this is McGuire being a full 2 years younger than any other catching prospects on MLB.com's Top 10 catcher prospects lists (and one of the younger players in the Top 100). The question of what will his bat be isn't something that's going to be answered anytime soon, especially with him playing above his age bracket.
2014: West Virginia (A): 98/427, .262/.307/.334, .642 OPS, 3 HR, 45 RBI, 7 SB
2015 Outlook: Given how well McGuire adapted to the SALLY last year McGuire is a candidate to open up with Bradenton. If not he'll end up there before long.

8. Mitch Keller, RHP, 6'3", 195, 4.4.96, R/R, 2014 Draft - 2nd Round, 64th Overall, GCL Pirates (Rk), 6F
95 MPH. If you're a starter that can hit 95 in the Majors you're in a good place. Keller hits 95 with regularity as an 18 year-old. Keller has the build that to sustain that and more, but he suffers from the same issues that anyone that young who can throw that fast has - control issues are there. Keller also has something rare for 18 year-olds who can hit 95 - he has a decent changeup. High school kids who can hit that speed typically come out with only one or two pitches, but Keller has three with the chance his curveball can be a plus pitch. Of course all there really can be said about someone Keller's age is pure upside because the floor is minimal and his development can go in any one of a million directions...but Keller looks to have the highest upside of our 2014 draft class.
2014: GCL Pirates (Rk): 9 G, 8 GS, 0-0, 1.98 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 27.1 IP, 29 K/13 BB
2015 Outlook: Depending on how things shake out the Pirates can be either conservative or aggressive with Keller this year - either extended Spring Training followed by the half-season in Morgantown or he goes right to the other West Virginia team in Charleston for the full season (or after a month or so of ESP). Keller is advanced for his age, so my money would be on Keller ending up in Charleston by Memorial Day.

9. Harold Ramirez, OF, 5'10", 211, 9.6.94, R/R, 2011 IFA - Colombia, West Virginia (A), 5.5D
Ramirez had a hitting streak stretching 23 games before he went down for the season on July 1 with a shin injury, ruining a potential breakout season. Ramirez's ability to put the bat on the ball is really the only outstanding thing with him, but he profiles to be average or above average at just about everything and he's played all 3 outfield positions roughly equally thus far. After the false start Ramirez is a candidate for a breakout again this year, especially if he can start drawing some walks or hitting for power.
2014: West Virginia (A): 49/226, .309/.364/.402, .766, 1 HR, 24 RBI, 12 SB
2015 Outlook: After missing more than half the season last year and Ramirez only turning 20 in September the odds are Ramirez will start in West Virginia again, but he could find himself in Bradenton before long if he's not too rusty.

10. Cole Tucker, SS, 6'3", 185, 7.3.96, S/R, 2014 Draft - 1st Round, 24th Overall, GCL Pirates (Rk), 5.5D
Like most people I was dumbfounded by this pick at the time, but that stance changed quickly once it became clear that the Pirates actually sniped the A's by taking Tucker (the A's having the next pick and him being atop their draft board as well) while two other teams were likely to nab Tucker before the Pirates would pick again at #39. The reason? Tucker was one of the youngest players in the draft, actually being 17 at the time of the selection. Let's call that the Alex Killorn factor. Aside from having fantastic defense and a build that will allow Tucker to stay at short, Tucker's upside is still largely a question mark. Tucker also comes with glowing character reviews and a tireless work ethic, which is always nice. What he can do with the bat is an unknown, and the fact that he played most of last year's minimal GCL season with a torn UCL in his left thumb didn't help make that picture any clearer. Tucker had surgery on the thumb and will be ready in time for Spring Training.
2014: GCL Pirates (Rk): 48/217, .267/.368/.356, .724, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13 SB
2015 Outlook: Extended Spring Training awaits Tucker, with him likely ending up in Morgantown in June. For those of you in the area there's your reason to see the new West Virginia Black Bears.

11. Elias Diaz, C, 6'0", 205, 11.17.90, R/R, 2008 IFA - Venezuela, Indianapolis (AAA), 5B
Diaz bat exploded onto the prospect scene last year after a quietly solid season in 2013 (eventually overtaking Jacob Stallings for the starting job by the end of the season). Before that Diaz was known solely for his glove, but now that the bat has joined his glove's level Diaz is looking like a solid bet to be a Major Leaguer at catcher in some capacity. Diaz putting together solid numbers with the bat is huge for his Major League chances because his defense was already there and he has a good eye at the plate. The question is if Diaz can continue the progression with the bat in AAA and eventually the Majors, that'll be the key between him being a starter and being a back-up.
2014: Altoona (AA): 91/367, .328/.378/.445, .823 OPS, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 3 SB
Indianapolis (AAA): 10/37, .152/.243/.182, .425 OPS, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB
2015 Outlook: Starting catcher for AAA Indianapolis. Ideally the Pirates won't need him this year, but he's a September call-up candidate.

12. Jung-Ho Kang, SS/IF, 6'0", 180, 4.5.87, R/R, 2015 IFA - South Korea, Nexen (Korea), 6C
Kang is a tough one to rate as he's 27 and has never played a professional game in North America, but in the eyes of Major League Baseball he is a rookie and he really is all potential because we just don't know what he's going to bring. The best case scenario is that Kang adopts quickly to the Majors and we have a 20+ home run run producer in the middle infield...worst case scenario is we have an infielder version of Jose Tabata without the attitude problems. His swing really is beautiful, so I don't think he's going to be a complete bust in this league, but again it's impossible to take any stats coming out of Korea at anything near face value, our old friend Yamaico Navarro hit 31 home runs there last year. The score doesn't align with the rating, but I barely consider Kang a prospect so...yeah.
2014: Nexen (KBO): 117/501, .356/.459/.739, 1.198 OPS, 40 HR, 117 RBI, 3 SB
2015 Outlook: Pirates' bench to start the year. Kang won't be thrown to the wolves right off the bat, but how quickly and how often he makes it into the line-up depends on how he adapts. He's a real wild card.

13. Adrian Sampson, RHP, 6'2", 210, 10.7.91, R/R, 2012 Draft - 5th Round, 166th Overall, Indianapolis (AAA), 5B
There will be no jokes about his hair. Sampson is your standard Pirates bottom-of-the-rotation pitching prospect - good frame, good fastball, an out-pitch (curveball), good control, and the potential to be an innings eater (179 innings thrown in 2014 with the AFL included). When I look at Sampson I see a very efficient pitcher who should be able to carve out a niche in the Majors if he's able to continue to develop his changeup.
2014: Altoona (AA): 24 G/GS, 10-5, 2.55 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 148 IP, 99 K/30 BB
Indianapolis (AAA): 4 G/GS, 1-1, 6.16 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.89 WHIP, 19 IP, 10 K/7 BB
2015: Sampson is set for a full season in AAA barring emergency or absurd break-out with the potential to be a September call-up. He's in an awkward spot as the third best pitching prospect in Indianapolis (once Taillon returns), so Sampson will have an uphill battle to make it into the Pirates' rotation in the near future.

14. Gage Hinsz, RHP, 6'4", 210, 4.20.96, R/R, 2014 Draft - 11th Round, 341st Overall, GCL Pirates (Rk), 5.5F
Well, if the stupid new draft rules were good for anything, it'd be the bonus pick of Gage Hinsz - who the Pirates wanted to draft in the 2nd round but felt was going to be too hard to sign away from Oregon State...ultimately Hinsz was taken in the first round he could be taken without leaving the Pirates with dead cap space and signed for little more than half of what he'd have received if he had been taken in the 2nd. Signing Hinsz put the Pirates into a taxable situation, basically meaning the Pirates will pay as much as if he'd been taken in the 2nd round, but no picks were lost and Hinsz only cost an 11th rounder. I'll be upfront here - the very thing that makes Hinsz such a hard prospect to project is the same reason why I'm going to constantly overrate the hell out of him - he was drafted out of a Montana, where high school baseball literally isn't a thing (he pitched in British Columbia and American Legion ball prior to being drafted), and even with the 9 round draft slip due to signability concerns he was one of the highest drafted players out of Montana ever...and with his 0 WAR for the Pirates he's tied for first amongst those drafted out of the state (there are decent players from the state, but none were drafted...and it really won't take much for Hinsz to be the best ever to come out of the state).
Anyway... Hinsz does have a projectable frame and already throws a 93 MPH fastball with regularity, so there is the potential for him to gain speed and keep it. Hinsz is pure upside because he's about as unrefined as an American-born prospect as you can find in baseball...but that upside could see Hinsz rocket his way through the prospect charts...or flame out before even making it to Altoona.
2014: GCL Pirates (Rk): 3 G, 2 GS, 0-0, 3.28 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.5 WHIP, 8 IP, 7 K/4 BB
2015 Outlook: With how raw Hinsz is, which wasn't made better by him being the last draftee signed (8 innings pitched!), it is completely possible that Hinsz returns to the GCL this year, but I think that fastball of his will at least grade him into the Appalachian League, making him the only prospect on this list that I expect to play in Bristol (a half-step ahead of the GCL and a half-step behind the NY-Penn League).

15. Clay Holmes, RHP, 6'5", 231, 3.27.93, R/R, 2011 Draft - 9th Round, 272nd Overall, DNP, 5.5F
Taillon wasn't the only top Pirate pitching prospect to go down to Tommy John Surgery last year, as Holmes was another Spring Training casualty. Holmes was primed for a move to the SALLY and was a fringe top 10 prospect who was seen as a potential break-out candidate this time last year, so the potential is there...but of course you always have to be wary of TJS and a lost year of development is never a good thing. The good news is that Holmes is on track to be able to play on Opening Day, so hopefully he will get his full season in Bradenton in this time around.
Holmes, like Hinsz, hit 93 upon being drafted and he was hitting 95 in 2013. He's had endurance issues in the past with retaining that fastball, but his curveball gives me hope of him being a two-pitch reliever if things don't work out completely. His changeup was to be his project last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up some rough numbers to start the season this year.
Bonus pointless trivia: Holmes was scouted by former Mariners draft pick Darren Mazeroski, son of some guy named Bill.
2014: DNP
2015 Outlook: Full season in Bradenton (A+). Thanks to the TJS I doubt the Pirates will want to push Holmes this year and he's likely looking at an innings cap that'll prevent him from getting a late-season push to AA. With the double-whammy of learning a third pitch and missing a year I doubt Holmes will have great stats this year, but little should/can be read into that.

16. JaCoby Jones, SS, 6'3", 200, 5.10.92, R/R, 2013 Draft - 3rd Round, 87th Overall, West Virginia (A), 5.5F
*Breakout Alert* Alright, that shouldn't surprise anyone, Jones was a boom/bust project from the start, but the results thus far have been very promising. The move to short (words that are almost never said together) has generally been good and it certainly didn't affect his bat, his 23 home runs led the notorious pitcher-friendly SALLY...but as a college player Jones was overage for the SALLY (which can be attributed to the rough position change) so the offensive numbers are to be taken very lightly. This will be a huge year for Jones as this could show if he can stay at short or will have to move elsewhere (the good news is that he's absurdly athletic and was drafted as a center fielder...he could land at basically any position other than pitcher or catcher) and if the bat is for real or a mirage, though that latter part depends more on earning a mid-season promotion to Altoona. The strikeout rate is also slightly worrying.
2014: West Virginia (A): 117/501, .288/.347/.503, .851 OPS, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 17 SB
2015 Outlook: Jones will start the season in Bradenton with the eye to a promotion to Altoona by the end of the season. The positional change kept him in West Virginia longer than what would be expected of a player his age, but that will remain a major point of emphasis this year.

17. Cody Dickson, LHP, 6'3", 180, 4.27.92, L/L, 2013 Draft - 4th Round, 119th Overall, Wst Virginia (A), 5F
Dickson is under much the same path as Jones is, but as a pitcher. As a lefty who hits 95 with regularity there is a ton of potential value - but it's in a raw package that played a full season in the SALLY as a collegiate player. One question with Dickson is with his control as he shows good stuff with all three pitches, even with the changeup being a new pitch, but he showed consistent improvement in that regard last season. The key for Dickson will be adding muscle to his frame as he's worn down throughout games and the season. The work on the changeup coupled with the necessity to add to his frame means Dickson is likely pegged for a full season in Bradenton.
2014: West Virginia (A): 27 G/GS, 7-9, 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 1.515 WHIP, 129.1 IP, 104 K, 58 BB
2015 Outlook: Dickson is looking at a full season in Bradenton with a slight chance of moving up to Altoona at the end of the year.

18. Trey Supak, RHP, 6'5", 210, 5.31.96, R/R, 2014 Draft - 2nd Round, 73rd Overall, GCL Pirates (Rk), 5F
The difference between Supak and fellow $1 million 2nd rounder Mitch Keller is much smaller than the 10 spot difference would lead you to think, but Supak is generally seen as the lesser of the two because of having less speed despite the larger frame. Supak has hit 94, but he generally sits closer to 90 and loses velocity as the game goes on. Supak needs to add muscle to his frame so he can retain speed later into the game, until then he's pure projection. He's also shown (very correctable) control issues, which has resulted in too many fastballs up in the zone. The upside is there, but his floor is very low...which isn't exactly a concern considering he doesn't turn 19 until after Memorial Day.
2014: GCL Pirates (Rk): 8G, 6 GS, 1-3, 4.88 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 1.58 WHIP, 24 IP, 21 K, 11 BB
2015 Outlook: I may be pushing things, but I think Supak opens (and ends) in Morgantown, though there is a chance he starts in Bristol (with the potential to move to Morgantown quickly). Either way it's short-season ball for Supak before moving to West Virginia next year.

19. Stephen Tarpley, LHP, 6'1", 180, 2.17.93, L/R, 2015 Trade (from Baltimore for Travis Snider), Aberdeen (A), 5F
Tarpley is the newest of the low-minors upside pitchers, being acquired just recently for Travis Snider...which means I have even less knowledge of Tarpley as I do the others. From what I can gather he hits 94 with a good mound presence with two okay secondary pitches and a solid strikeout rate coming from the left side of the mound. Tarpley was drafted in the 8th round by Arizona in 2011 and in the 3rd round by Baltimore two years later.
2014: Aberdeen (A-): 13 G, 12 GS, 3-5, 3.66 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 66 IP, 60 K, 24 BB
2015 Outlook: Bradenton? Tarpley coming from outside makes projecting where he'll start out a little more difficult given where he is in his development. He's a candidate for extended Spring Training leading into a Bradenton call-up before the short-season starts...or he could just flat-out start in Bradenton. Seriously, I'm just guessing here.

20. John Holdzkom, RHP, 6'7", 225, 10.19.87, R/R, 2014 MLFA, 4.5B
Let me put this right out there - I don't like including Holdzkom on this list. That isn't to say that I don't see the potential for him being an impact player moving forward, it's just that...you know, he's a 27 year-old whose value is based on a small sample size...but if Kang is on this list then Holdzkom has to be as they're both rookies in the eyes of Major League Baseball. That said I don't think I need to say anything here as we're all familiar with his story and the fact that he's a former bust who cleaned up his life and has shown success...it's saccharine Disney movie material. Let's all hope there's a saccharine Disney movie to be made in a couple years. The talent is there to be a dominant closer, but with what he's shown it's hard to imagine him not carving out a decent career as a middle reliever at least. Either way, when you go from being cut by the Laredo Lemurs without getting so much as a phone call to being even a temporary folk hero for a team in a playoff hunt you have a good story to tell the grand-kids...also I'm throwing a bonus 21st ranked player into this list because of my reservations in even including Holdzkom.
2014: Altoona (AA): 4 G, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.87 FIP, 0.5 WHIP, 6 IP, 10 K, 2 BB
Indianapolis (AAA): 18 G, 2-0, 2 SV, 2.49 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 21.2 IP, 27 K, 10 BB
Pittsburgh: 9 G, 1-0, 1 SV, 2.00 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 0.67 WHIP, 9 IP, 14 K, 2 BB
2015 Outlook: A lock for the bullpen to start the season and a favorite for the 7th inning role. The question with Holdzkom is more of how long will it last than if he has the stuff to do it. Please throw the palmball more, John.

21. Luis Heredia, RHP, 6'6", 240, 8.10.94, R/R, IFA - Mexico (2010), 5F
The thing with Heredia is that he's too easy to write off, he's been in the system for 4 years and has shown little...but then we also have to realize that he only turned 20 last year and still has a ton of upside. Heredia fetched the highest IFA bonus from the Pirates (by a large amount) due to him being able to hit 98 at the age of 16, but control was a huge issue. He's been unable to throw that pitch with both speed and accuracy, but he still has a plus fastball after changing his delivery slot and losing weight. His future largely depends on his slurve, and the changeup will be a mandatory focus in Bradenton this year.
The results with Heredia may be somewhat frustrating to this point, but the talent is there and his age does have to be considered, he will be one of the youngest pitchers in the Florida State League this season. Heredia could end the season 15 spots higher or out of the top 30.
2014: West Virginia (A): 18 G/GS, 2-4, 4.15 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 89 IP, 43 K, 33 BB
2015 Outlook: Bradenton for the entire season. Heredia has two pitches in need of developing thanks to the new arm slot, so promotion is out of the question and beautiful stats shouldn't be expected.

I get my info from a lot of places, but I'd be completely remiss if I didn't throw Pirates Prospects a big credit here, and I highly suggest buying their prospect guide if you're interested in such a thing.
 
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cheesedanish87

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
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Nice write up big, lots of good info there.


Diaz is a guy that intrigues me, i'v heard lots of good things about him, its nice to see hes got the defense working for him since that's a catchers number 1 priority.
 

penguins2946*

Guest
Great job on the prospect ranking. One question, is Taillon ending up an above average starter a disappointment for a #2 overall pick? I don't understand baseball drafts as well as hockey drafts, but it's a little disappointing to see that Taillon is still in the minors and doesn't project to be a star while Harper (1st overall) and Machado (3rd overall) both are stars at their respective positions.
 

clefty

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- Neither Harper nor Machado are pitchers. Development time/process is vastly different.
- On top of that, Harper was drafted out of college. Taillon was taken out of high school.
- Look at the other high school arms who were drafted that year and where they're at right now. Even other highly rated prospects from that year like Aaron Sanchez only just broke into the majors late last season.
- Taillon almost certainly would have pitched in the majors also last season if not for TJ surgery
- Baseball Prospectus just rated him 2 1/2 weeks ago as the 19th best prospect in all of baseball, only dropping six spots despite not throwing a ball in anger once all last season. Nothing is for certain but, "doesn't project to be a star" isn't a common opinion at this stage.
 
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Winger for Hire

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Dec 9, 2013
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I would like to say the Harper is extremely overrated. He's not a generational talent like the publications touted.

He has above average tools across the board and a motor that goes forever, but he has a $.05 head, which I think is really holding back his development. He doesn't have a good batting eye. He has to work on laying off junk pitches to force pitchers to make mistakes and throw strikes. He could also benefit from not always having the most agressive plate approach every at bat. From the limited amount I've seen him, he's the kind of guy who takes his glove to the plate and his bat to the field (carries over a bad fielding play into his at bat and tried too hard to make up for it there, and visa versa).

I'm not saying he's a terrible player, but not a Ken Griffey/Barry Bonds type every was projecting. I see a Starling Matre with more power and less wheels (and more attraction to running head first into outfield walls).


In all that I forgot to praise Big for his awesome rundown of the Pirates' prospects. Awesome work Big!

It's kind of sad to see Heredia so far down when he was part of the big retooling of the Pirates' farm system. I know he's still young and his ranking is partly due to so much high end talent being added and weight problems. I still have decent hopes for him.
 

TNT87

Registered User
Jun 23, 2010
21,440
8,195
PA
Excellent read. Thanks for doing this. It's nice to see the minors stocked with some promising prospects. The present and future continues to look bright for the Bucs. I'm really going to pay attention to Bell this year. I think he's going to have a monster season and will be up in Pittsburgh sooner rather than later.
 

Big McLargehuge

Fragile Traveler
May 9, 2002
72,188
7,742
S. Pasadena, CA
Great job on the prospect ranking. One question, is Taillon ending up an above average starter a disappointment for a #2 overall pick? I don't understand baseball drafts as well as hockey drafts, but it's a little disappointing to see that Taillon is still in the minors and doesn't project to be a star while Harper (1st overall) and Machado (3rd overall) both are stars at their respective positions.

The 2nd Overall Pick from 2000-Taillon
2000: Adam Johnson, RHP, Twins - 10.25 career ERA in limited action, -1.1 career WAR.
2001: Mark Pryor, RHP, Cubs - Was en route to being one of the best pitchers of his era before his career was destroyed by injuries, 16.5 WAR.
2002: B.J. Upton, SS, Devil Rays - Sometimes hype is more important than results...Upton's current contract means he'll make more than $88 million in the majors despite a fairly unspectacular 13.8 WAR, which has taken a hit with two consecutive negative WAR seasons.
2003: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers - Hard to imagine a 2B going this high today, but Weeks lived up to the spot for most of his time in Milwaukee...but he's fallen off a cliff of late and just signed a 1-year, $2 million deal with the Mariners yesterday, 12.3 WAR.
2004: Justin Verlander, RHP, Tigers - Yeah, this one worked out...until that new contract was signed, at least. 41.4 WAR.
2005: Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals - Gordon is proof that you can't write off a player too soon, as he wasn't able to completely put things together until 2011. Almost all of his value has come in the past 4 seasons. 28.6 WAR.
2006: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Rockies - To put Reynolds' career in perspective let it sink in that he failed in Japan last year and presently is is unsigned. -1.6 WAR.
2007: Mike Moustakas, SS, Royals - Moustakas is yet to put things together and is an occasional liability, but his sophomore season was pretty good. 4.5 WAR.
2008: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates - Oh hi Pedro. 5.5 WAR.
2009: Dustin Ackley, OF, Mariners - Despite a very promising rookie season, Ackley has provided little with the bat in his 3 full seasons in the Majors...but still has a 8.9 WAR somehow.

Taillon in 2010 and none of the picks after him have made it to the Majors yet, either.

I project Taillon as a good #2, which would be a very good value for #2. The MLB Draft is always a crapshoot, especially when talking about prep players.
 

wheelz87

LGP
Jun 28, 2011
9,252
2,808
Pittsburgh
Fixed that for you...

I blame Dusty for both Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.

I really despise the Cubs and I take so much joy year after year in seeing them come up short. It's one of my things. Anyways, those teams they had with those two, Zambrano, Maddux, Dempster.. gosh could they pitch! I thought for sure they were going to get their ring. They really missed an opportunity.

I still remember a Summer day in 98/99, I was at my Grandma's house. I went into the back room to watch a little mid-day baseball on about a 15 inch tv. All that was going on was Kerry Wood mowing down 20 guys like nothing. His curveball.. I think half the time wasn't on the screen then bam it was back. It was just unfair. I was just thinking, "Holy **** this guy is going to be good!"

Anyways, thanks for the rankings Big! :yo:
 

Winger for Hire

Praise Beebo
Dec 9, 2013
13,058
1,692
Quarantine Zone 5
I really despise the Cubs and I take so much joy year after year in seeing them come up short. It's one of my things. Anyways, those teams they had with those two, Zambrano, Maddux, Dempster.. gosh could they pitch! I thought for sure they were going to get their ring. They really missed an opportunity.

I still remember a Summer day in 98/99, I was at my Grandma's house. I went into the back room to watch a little mid-day baseball on about a 15 inch tv. All that was going on was Kerry Wood mowing down 20 guys like nothing. His curveball.. I think half the time wasn't on the screen then bam it was back. It was just unfair. I was just thinking, "Holy **** this guy is going to be good!"

Anyways, thanks for the rankings Big! :yo:

I found a Kerry Wood jersey at JCPenny's about a week after watching that game (live... it was amazing). Still have it and wear it to this day. It's the only exception I make in rooting for the enemy (just Kerry Wood, not the Cubs... eff the Cubs).
 

gtpeli2

Registered User
Feb 5, 2014
443
19
It's so weird expecting the Pirates to be legitimately good as we start ST. Really a strange feeling. And an awesome one. Probably my favorite of all the Pittsburgh teams right now.
 

penguins2946*

Guest


Kang with some batting practice at Pirate City. His swing seems to be very smooth.
 

djt153

Registered User
Dec 26, 2003
3,616
0
Tarpley definitely is an interesting arm and have to trust the fo on this one. Good article, but that Wes freeman comeback blurb is pretty depressing
 

Xavier Laflamme*

Guest
Awesome write up, Big. I remember telling anyone that would listen to me that Luis Heredia would be our next ace...yeahhhh..no
 

Winger for Hire

Praise Beebo
Dec 9, 2013
13,058
1,692
Quarantine Zone 5
Pitchers and Catchers report today. Happy baseball season everyone!

080514_dunn_skims_elvis_tw_3rc7tnu3.gif


Clint Hurdle on what "Pitchers and Catchers Report" mean to him-

"For me, it's the most wonderful time of the year. It's a dress rehearsal. It's 'lights, camera, action.' Those clichés -- hope springs eternal. But the smell, the resin, the pine tar, the sound, the bat and the ball, the crack, leather poppin' -- for me, it's so special."
 

cheesedanish87

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
10,797
2,157
Pittsburgh
I wish the Pirates could add another reliever before the season, if you end up needing another reliever during the year they are expansive to acquire around the deadline.
 

Gallatin

A Banksy of Goonism
Mar 4, 2010
2,951
541
Pittsburgh
I wish the Pirates could add another reliever before the season, if you end up needing another reliever during the year they are expansive to acquire around the deadline.

Not sure if serious.

Is this not the deepest pen in like - forever for the Bucks?

I mean, there's a legit chance Hughes gets optioned back to Indi this spring...
 
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