OT: Raise of the Jolly Roger: We goin' tankin'

[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts:

Is there a consensus must-have #1 prospect for next year or will be another cluster of possibilities?

Elijah Green is currently considered the clear #1 guy. Probably the most clear #1 since Harper.

Would be kind of amusing if the Pirates ultimately end up drafting Rocker, who like Green, was the sure-fire #1 prospect around this time last season

As President of the Tank Crew - and I heartily endorse this message.

Was. He's had some K-rate issues this year, and there's a bunch of high end guys at the top of this draft.

I think the best scenario for the first pick next year is going to be a college hitter – often the safest top pick, next year features a deeper group, and obviously it lines up well with having double-tapped Gonzales and Davis if you can get another guy who moves pretty quickly. That said, it's never a good idea to speak in absolutes about the draft so far out. The prep hitter group is very good, with Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones (Andrew's son) also in the mix with Greene, and there are a couple of pitchers in the mix too.

It's pretty much a certainty that we won't pick lower than 3rd IMO. The pitching depth just doesn't exist, so we're going to keep losing a ton of games.

For shits and giggles, let's say the Pirates pick #4 overall next year. Do you take Rocker assuming his elbow is fine?

There are way too many variables to know the answer to that this far out. But if healthy I certainly would have him on the board.

The rumor I keep seeing is that there's an issue with a shoulder, but I don't see a scenario where you would take him. The top tier of the draft next year is stronger than this year's was, so I think that alone would eliminate the possibility. It's hard to say for sure, since a healthy Rocker is probably somewhere in the top half of the first round mix, but I don't think anyone is is going to take him over premium college bats or a even the prep guys. One way to look at it is that the Mets have already signaled they'd take pick 11 in next year's draft ahead of him, so it'd be surprising if he went before that pick.

Blind guess, but he seems like someone who would get picked once it moves into the consensus second tier of the draft and a team's turn comes up who lacks a consensus top guy on their board. I don't think anyone is going to take him extremely high, but once it gets into the second tier where more preferences come in, someone could still grab him. The obvious caveat is that it's a pretty unprecedented situation and in theory you can have pitch data/showcases which could calm any worries.

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[cookthebooks]

i thought about it for a while and i am at a loss how rocker could ever go higher than where he went this past draft

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's really a BS situation for him. Financially, the best decision would probably be to just sign professionally in Japan and delay an MLB attempt several years down the road, but that's not exactly a fair option assuming he'd rather play in MLB.

From a team perspective, I think some of the issue would be that he won't really be pitching competitively (from what I have seen he is just taking the year off and presumably having a showcase, and likely won't have any kind of eye popping metrics on his fastball in the showcases he does.

It does seem to me that the first round of an MLB draft becomes something of a crapshoot once you start getting out of the top tier of players, so at that point it could make sense for a team to take him. But then you get into a question of what his number is and also, frankly, how much leverage he is going to have next year. I think he would be attractive to teams who think he can move relatively quickly and get to the majors.


I don't think anyone disagrees with this but there really needs to be some kind of failsafe in place for these situations. The current system is just set up to rip amateur players off, and although radical solutions people kick around like fully eliminating the draft would probably create a better scenario for them, it's obviously a nonstarter and would probably hurt teams who do not/will not/can not spend huge amounts in all facets of the game. I don't really know a practical solution that could address this situation, though, since in theory any loophole that would allow him to sign now could be exploited in the future for an amateur player to push themselves where they want to go. The current goofy slotting system is pretty weird, so maybe something will shift in the next CBA (though iirc draft rules are one of the lowest priority items discussed and in the past they have announced completed deals before even actually working them out, so I wouldn't hold my breath).


tldr; imo is that Rocker becomes a viable option once it gets into the amorphous post-top 1/2 tiers or however it shakes out. If I were looking at it from the Pirates perspective my thought would be how it might be possible to meet his number as the second pick, i.e., cost-save some up front and behind our pick and then be able to offer mid-first round money. I don't think that's very likely but I'd also be lying if I said I had any inclination about where he'll be drafted next year. I have seen a few people throw around the idea that he's still sort of in that close to top tier mix, so maybe the 8-15 range is viable (I'm thinking more like 12-30). There are just so many variables as Mr. B said on the last page of the old thread.

 

[MrBrightside]

Speaking of tanking. In their last 10 games each, the Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, and Orioles are a combined 2-38.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Speaking of tanking. In their last 10 games each, the Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, and Orioles are a combined 2-38.

I have enjoyed listening to local DC sports talk and their spoiled fan base. They literally said they were turning into the Pittsburgh Pirates. I am like yeah Pittsburgh would never sign Strauss to 35 million a year and Corbin to 24 million. They got taken to cleaners on the max trade by giving away turner.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If I were guessing right now, I'd say we'll end up finishing with pick 3. I think the Orioles will end up with the top pick, though maybe the Diamondbacks will edge them out. The Rangers' competition is weak enough that I think they will end up winning more than us, whereas both of those two teams are in very tough divisions (though maybe there should be some kind of pause over the NL West, as the Rockies have played pretty well against everyone and on paper are as bad as us and these other three IMO) with playoff races and jockeying for the division win.

That said, we could be in for a really brutal stretch between now and September 1st, and a lot could ride on how the Diamondbacks series goes a week from today. Also depends on whether or not Hayes gets shut down, or Moran struggles / gets hurt again, but I think if neither of those things happen, we may just win enough to end up with pick 3.

I really do think it's a 4-team "race" at this point, as some of these other teams are also pretty bad, but 8-10 games is a big gap this late in the season. Only way it's going to change is if the bottom falls out for a team and one of these 4 teams gets absolutely white hot.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Gallatin]

Speaking of tanking. In their last 10 games each, the Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, and Orioles are a combined 2-38.

And after utterly sucking through the All-star Game, Arizona is now into the 2nd half of their rebuild. They've got some good young players up - trying hard and making things happen in the 2nd half. And of course the schedule is favorable.

The D-Backs won't draft higher than 3rd IMO. That's basically the model for the Pirates - be utter dogs in the 1st half (if there even is one) and than the kids start leading the charge back to respectability late in the year. That's kinda "best case scenario" for me in 22.

 

[TNT87]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Nogowski was also DFA'd so it's possible that another 40-man move is incoming. The White Sox DFA'd Zach Burdi so we could try him for the pen.

Yoshi is a pretty decent power bat gamble, IMO. I didn't hate Tom as much as people randomly seemed to, but outside of looking competent in his ABs, I'm not sure there's much there -- doesn't really have the profile of a 4th OF type to get a longer look at.

Similarly, as fun as the Nogowski thing was for a couple of weeks, he simply doesn't hit for power and subjectively it looked like he was pretty mediocre at 1B defensively. Just not the kind of guys to give longer looks to. It seems like some of the fanbase has soured on Alford, but at least with Alford you are getting speed and very good OF defense. (I'm not so sure I'd keep him around on a 40-man spot, but the OF depth is paper thin unless we are going to give Mitchell or Smith-Njigba a chance to win a job out of spring training, which honestly might not be a terrible idea...getting ahead of myself but I think they both have good approaches at the plate).

 

[ChaosAgent]

Nogowski was also DFA'd so it's possible that another 40-man move is incoming. The White Sox DFA'd Zach Burdi so we could try him for the pen.

Yoshi is a pretty decent power bat gamble, IMO. I didn't hate Tom as much as people randomly seemed to, but outside of looking competent in his ABs, I'm not sure there's much there -- doesn't really have the profile of a 4th OF type to get a longer look at.

Similarly, as fun as the Nogowski thing was for a couple of weeks, he simply doesn't hit for power and subjectively it looked like he was pretty mediocre at 1B defensively. Just not the kind of guys to give longer looks to. It seems like some of the fanbase has soured on Alford, but at least with Alford you are getting speed and very good OF defense. (I'm not so sure I'd keep him around on a 40-man spot, but the OF depth is paper thin unless we are going to give Mitchell or Smith-Njigba a chance to win a job out of spring training, which honestly might not be a terrible idea...getting ahead of myself but I think they both have good approaches at the plate).

After seeing how little power Nogo had, I'm almost inclined to make every big league position player take a test where they have to hit a ball >x feet. 425 or 430 or something. You can have 100 tries. But ya gotta get one out there.

With the shifting, positioning and defense so good these days it is so difficult to get hits if you aren't capable of hitting the ball hard.

Mitchell has not impressed at all in his second half and he is regressing towards his minor league profile the last couple years - of maxing out as a AAAA guy/Jason Martin. He is the least exciting of the upper minors outfield prospects to me.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I absolutely cannot wait until this worthless f***ing yokel is fired.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I absolutely cannot wait until this worthless f***ing yokel is fired.

Don’t hate on the tank commander and chief

 

[DanielPlainview]

Have to love minor league baseball team names

 

[Gallatin]

Any of you guys follow Piratesprospects? Williams has started it back up as part of his PBN - a future monopoly of the Internet Buccos baseball community IMO.

Think he's really going places the next several years - like the new model in it's infancy - and the wisdom of the now grizzled vet that Williams has transformed to.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Any of you guys follow Piratesprospects? Williams has started it back up as part of his PBN - a future monopoly of the Internet Buccos baseball community IMO.

Think he's really going places the next several years - like the new model in it's infancy - and the wisdom of the now grizzled vet that Williams has transformed to.

I stopped because it's subscription model and I'm cheap. Or like, I already have so dang many subscriptions that I can't let it keep proliferating.

This is the right time to do it. There is a straightline correlation between the strength of the Pirates MILB system and the PiratesProspects business. With the Penguins definitely headed towards the twilight there will be a larger eyeball share for the Buccos, too.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[Empoleon8771]

My math may be wrong but I'm pretty sure Davis is OPS'ing like 1.500 so far in the pros.

2 doubles, 1 triple and 2 homers at 15 plate appearances is pretty damn good.

 

[Gallatin]

My math may be wrong but I'm pretty sure Davis is OPS'ing like 1.500 so far in the pros.

2 doubles, 1 triple and 2 homers at 15 plate appearances is pretty damn good.

Loving his opposite field power. This kid is going to hit.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, seems like he's going to have no problems being plopped right into that #4/5 RBI situation and excelling. I'm sort of inclined to just toss out the FCL games and treat these ones with Greensboro as the proper debut, since it's more appropriate competition etc., but that's splitting hairs. Obviously early for any kind of worry, especially with not much video, but he has also had some more Ks than expected in his handful of games.

It'll be interesting to see how he's handled. The obvious comparison is Rutschman but he was a better prospect who has only gotten better in pro ball, and he had a minor league season wiped out so it's hard to gauge. I could see having him start in Altoona, but that might be extremely aggreessive given that he'll really only have a cup of coffee in pro ball. But then you might also want to weigh something like having him stick to one level all year, and in any case the DH option will help the bat get reps while staying fresh.

I don't really think there is any magic bullet to the defense other than hard work (which obviously isn't going to be an issue) and reps. It's hard to know exactly how much the latter might slow him down -- what I am thinking is that if he did start in AA, then an early 2023 MLB debut probably isn't out of the question. But that could be more of a slow roll type thing, where he plays most of the year in AAA that year and gets a cup of coffee at the end of it, depending on lots of things. Way too early to even really speculation. Just nice that the bat seemingly hasn't skipped a beat.

 

[cookthebooks]

there’s so much to be mad about in the world but waking up and checking box scores and seeing newman/polanco doesn’t have to be one. gmbc put an end to this madness

 

[Goalie_Bob]

If the aim is to suck, who cares?

 

[cookthebooks]

If the aim is to suck, who cares?

that isnt the aim! the aim is to unearth hidden gems while sucking

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I've actually softened the Newman take over the last week or so, as there has clearly been a mandate to play other guys regularly. From watching the games, it seems pretty evident to me that while Park and Castro should play regularly, they are still inexperienced and it probably benefits them to get a blow once or twice a week. There's enough flexibility that they can still get a majority of starts in a week and I think there's actually something to earning starts on a game-by-game/series-by-series/week-by-week basis.

The only two position players I can really see entering the mix are Tucker and Chavis, and it's not a slam dunk for me in either case (I might be off base here but taking a gamble on Yoshi tells me that we may want Chavis to finish out the season in AAA). The only other real long shot could be Cruz, who was having the kind of season where he may have earned the cup of coffee but now has missed 6 weeks. Marcano and Oliva are also on the 40-man but I think should play out the season in AAA.