Quick References: Median PTS by type for different lines/pairs

Black Gold Extractor · Jan 24, 2020

This is the companion thread to the one about non-PP GF/GA. It's easy to measure offensive contributions in general (the more points, the better), but it's also handy to have tables allowing one to assess whether a player is performing above or below expectation. (e.g. Was Shawn Horcoff a legit NHL first-line player?)

Using skater data from Hockey-Reference.com (e.g. 1959-60), I sorted data for forwards and defensemen and found the medians for each expected lines/pairs. For the current 32-team NHL, the median of the top 96 forwards would represent line 1, the next 96 forwards would represent line 2, etc.

For now, breakdown by points by type are limited to the post-expansion era. Total points go back all the way to 1926-27. Note that the expectation value for shorthanded goals/points is assumed to be negligible. The sum of median EV and PP points may add up to more than the median total points, but this is likely due to line shuffling or "unique" deployments (e.g. Evgeni Malkin, who is usually deployed as 2nd-line center at evens but on the first PP unit in PIT).

Forward total points:

Season	# teams	1st line	2nd line	3rd line	4th line	extras
1917-18	3.27	30.0	7.0	0.0
1918-19	3	18.0	11.0
1919-20	4	29.0	13.5
1920-21	4	27.0	9.0
1921-22	4	26.0	8.0
1922-23	4	25.0	8.0
1923-24	4	18.0	3.5	0.0
1924-25	6	25.0	4.5	0.0
1925-26	7	24.0	6.0	0.0
1926-27	10	22.0	8.5	0.5
1927-28	10	19.5	9.0	1.0
1928-29	10	18.5	8.0	1.0
1929-30	10	35.0	18.0	7.0
1930-31	10	30.0	17.0	7.0
1931-32	8	38.0	21.0	8.0	1.0
1932-33	9	33.0	20.0	11.0	2.0
1933-34	9	31.0	22.0	13.0	1.0
1934-35	9	37.0	24.0	12.0	4.0
1935-36	8	32.0	21.0	12.0	3.0
1936-37	8	33.5	22.0	15.0	4.5
1937-38	8	34.0	24.5	16.5	4.0
1938-39	7	37.0	26.0	16.0	7.0	0.0
1939-40	7	36.0	24.0	17.0	8.0	0.0
1940-41	7	38.0	25.0	18.0	8.0	2.0
1941-42	7	38.0	30.0	23.0	12.0	2.0
1942-43	6	58.0	36.0	23.5	10.5	3.0
1943-44	6	65.5	42.0	21.0	6.0	1.0
1944-45	6	53.5	34.5	20.5	7.0	0.0
1945-46	6	43.5	29.0	18.0	10.0	1.5
1946-47	6	52.0	35.5	23.0	10.5	1.0
1947-48	6	50.5	32.5	21.0	10.0	1.0
1948-49	6	44.0	31.0	20.5	10.0	1.0
1949-50	6	51.0	38.5	26.5	9.0	1.0
1950-51	6	51.0	34.5	24.5	12.5	1.0
1951-52	6	51.0	38.0	23.5	8.5	2.0
1952-53	6	44.0	32.0	22.0	9.0	2.5
1953-54	6	46.0	32.0	23.0	8.0	1.0
1954-55	6	53.5	33.5	23.5	7.0	1.0
1955-56	6	51.0	34.0	22.0	11.0	0.0
1956-57	6	53.0	38.5	23.0	15.0	1.0
1957-58	6	58.5	41.0	27.5	11.5	1.0
1958-59	6	62.0	40.0	26.0	12.5	1.0
1959-60	6	67.0	39.5	29.0	15.5	3.0
1960-61	6	65.0	40.5	30.0	13.5	2.0
1961-62	6	62.5	44.0	28.0	12.0	1.0
1962-63	6	62.0	42.0	26.5	14.5	0.0
1963-64	6	62.0	38.0	23.0	10.0	2.0
1964-65	6	55.0	40.5	27.5	16.5	2.0
1965-66	6	60.5	44.5	29.0	10.0	2.0
1966-67	6	55.0	40.0	31.0	16.0	1.5
1967-68	12	58.5	40.5	28.0	13.0	2.0
1968-69	12	66.0	44.5	28.5	14.0	1.0
1969-70	12	63.0	44.0	29.5	14.0	1.0
1970-71	14	65.0	46.0	32.0	16.0	3.0
1971-72	14	68.0	45.0	29.0	15.0	2.5
1972-73	16	76.5	49.0	34.0	17.5	1.0
1973-74	16	69.5	47.0	32.0	16.0	3.0
1974-75	18	74.0	49.0	35.5	18.5	2.5
1975-76	18	75.5	49.5	35.0	19.0	2.0
1976-77	18	67.0	47.0	33.0	21.0	3.5
1977-78	18	70.5	48.5	32.0	18.0	4.0
1978-79	17	74.0	50.0	33.0	19.0	7.0
1979-80	21	75.0	49.0	33.0	18.0	5.0
1980-81	21	75.0	57.0	36.0	22.0	8.0
1981-82	21	86.0	57.0	39.0	22.0	8.0
1982-83	21	79.0	54.0	37.0	21.0	9.0
1983-84	21	83.0	54.0	36.0	21.0	8.0
1984-85	21	81.0	54.0	35.0	22.0	9.0
1985-86	21	78.0	56.0	38.0	23.0	7.0
1986-87	21	75.0	51.0	36.0	20.0	7.0
1987-88	21	79.0	51.0	30.0	19.0	8.0
1988-89	21	81.0	51.0	35.0	17.0	8.0
1989-90	21	80.0	50.0	32.0	18.0	7.0
1990-91	21	71.0	45.0	30.0	17.0	9.0
1991-92	22	76.5	47.0	29.5	17.0	8.0
1992-93	24	86.5	51.0	30.0	18.0	8.0
1993-94	26	75.0	45.0	29.0	16.5	7.0
1994-95	26	40.0	25.0	16.0	9.0	3.0
1995-96	26	72.5	45.0	27.0	15.0	7.0
1996-97	26	63.5	41.0	27.0	15.5	7.0
1997-98	26	60.0	36.5	23.5	14.0	6.0
1998-99	27	58.0	40.0	26.0	14.0	5.0
1999-00	28	63.0	39.5	26.0	16.0	6.5
2000-01	30	69.5	38.5	26.0	14.0	5.0
2001-02	30	62.0	41.0	24.5	14.0	5.0
2002-03	30	61.0	39.0	25.0	14.0	6.0
2003-04	30	55.5	37.0	25.0	13.0	5.0
2005-06	30	71.0	44.5	28.0	16.0	6.0
2006-07	30	69.0	42.0	27.0	14.0	4.0
2007-08	30	65.0	40.0	26.0	13.0	5.0
2008-09	30	66.0	43.0	27.0	15.0	5.5
2009-10	30	63.0	41.0	26.0	14.0	6.0
2010-11	30	61.0	41.0	27.0	15.0	5.0
2011-12	30	62.0	41.0	24.0	12.0	5.0
2012-13	30	36.0	23.0	14.0	8.0	3.0
2013-14	30	60.0	39.0	25.0	14.0	5.0
2014-15	30	61.0	38.0	26.0	15.0	6.0
2015-16	30	59.0	40.0	24.0	13.0	5.0
2016-17	30	58.0	41.0	25.0	14.0	6.0
2017-18	31	65.0	43.0	27.0	15.0	6.0
2018-19	31	72.0	40.0	27.0	17.0	6.0
2019-20	31	57.0	36.0	23.0	13.0	5.0
2020-21	31	44.0	28.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
2021-22	32	68.5	43.0	27.0	17.0	7.0
2022-23	32	72.5	43.0	28.0	17.0	8.0

Forward even strength points:

Season	# teams	1st line	2nd line	3rd line	4th line	extras
1933-34	9	24.0	18.0	10.0	1.0
1934-35	9	27.0	20.0	10.0	4.0
1935-36	8	25.0	17.0	10.0	3.0
1936-37	8	27.5	19.0	13.5	3.0
1937-38	8	29.0	21.0	14.5	3.5
1938-39	7	29.0	22.0	14.0	6.0	0.0
1939-40	7	29.0	19.0	15.0	7.0	0.0
1940-41	7	34.0	23.0	16.0	6.0	2.0
1941-42	7	33.0	26.0	19.0	11.0	2.0
1942-43	6	46.5	33.5	19.0	8.0	3.0
1943-44	6	58.0	40.5	19.5	6.0	1.0
1944-45	6	43.0	31.0	19.5	6.5	0.0
1945-46	6	37.0	26.0	16.0	9.0	1.5
1946-47	6	40.0	30.0	20.5	10.0	1.0
1947-48	6	38.5	26.5	18.0	8.5	1.0
1948-49	6	33.5	23.0	15.5	8.0	1.0
1949-50	6	41.5	31.5	21.5	8.0	1.0
1950-51	6	36.5	28.5	22.0	11.0	1.0
1951-52	6	36.0	29.0	18.0	8.0	2.0
1952-53	6	34.5	24.5	17.0	6.5	1.5
1953-54	6	34.0	24.0	15.0	6.5	1.0
1954-55	6	36.0	26.0	16.5	5.0	1.0
1955-56	6	38.5	27.0	18.0	8.5	0.0
1956-57	6	39.0	26.0	17.5	12.0	1.0
1957-58	6	43.5	28.5	23.0	9.0	1.0
1958-59	6	43.5	32.0	20.0	7.5	1.0
1959-60	6	47.5	31.5	24.5	12.5	2.5
1960-61	6	45.0	33.5	24.0	11.5	1.5
1961-62	6	45.0	32.5	22.0	10.5	0.5
1962-63	6	45.5	32.0	22.5	11.0	0.5
1963-64	6	45.5	27.5	19.0	8.5	1.0
1964-65	6	39.5	26.5	18.5	11.5	1.0
1965-66	6	42.5	34.5	22.0	7.5	1.0
1966-67	6	40.5	32.0	23.0	10.0	1.0
1967-68	12	44.5	32.0	23.0	10.0	2.0
1968-69	12	51.5	34.5	23.5	11.0	1.0
1969-70	12	43.5	30.5	21.0	12.5	1.0
1970-71	14	47.0	34.5	24.0	13.5	2.0
1971-72	14	47.0	35.0	23.0	11.0	2.0
1972-73	16	58.5	38.5	28.0	14.0	1.0
1973-74	16	48.5	36.0	26.0	14.0	2.0
1974-75	18	55.0	37.0	28.0	15.0	2.0
1975-76	18	53.5	37.0	27.5	14.0	1.0
1976-77	18	48.0	38.0	27.0	17.0	3.0
1977-78	18	52.0	37.0	27.0	15.5	3.0
1978-79	17	53.0	38.0	26.0	16.0	5.0
1979-80	21	54.0	38.0	27.0	15.0	4.0
1980-81	21	55.0	41.0	27.0	17.0	6.0
1981-82	21	62.0	44.0	31.0	18.0	7.0
1982-83	21	56.0	39.0	28.0	18.0	8.0
1983-84	21	55.0	39.0	28.0	18.0	7.0
1984-85	21	57.0	39.0	28.0	18.0	8.0
1985-86	21	53.0	40.0	29.0	19.0	6.0
1986-87	21	49.0	38.0	28.0	16.0	6.0
1987-88	21	48.0	35.0	23.0	15.0	7.0
1988-89	21	51.0	36.0	26.0	15.0	7.0
1989-90	21	55.0	36.0	25.0	16.0	7.0
1990-91	21	48.0	32.0	24.0	15.0	7.0
1991-92	22	49.0	34.0	23.0	12.5	6.0
1992-93	24	54.0	35.0	23.5	14.5	7.0
1993-94	26	47.0	32.0	23.0	13.0	6.0
1994-95	26	25.0	18.0	13.0	7.0	3.0
1995-96	26	46.0	29.5	20.5	12.5	6.0
1996-97	26	44.5	31.0	21.5	13.0	6.0
1997-98	26	38.5	25.0	18.0	12.0	5.0
1998-99	27	38.0	28.0	19.0	12.0	4.0
1999-00	28	41.0	30.0	21.0	13.0	6.0
2000-01	30	41.5	28.0	20.0	11.0	4.0
2001-02	30	41.0	29.0	20.0	11.5	4.0
2002-03	30	40.0	28.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
2003-04	30	38.0	26.0	19.0	10.0	5.0
2005-06	30	40.0	28.0	19.0	12.0	5.0
2006-07	30	41.5	28.0	20.0	12.0	4.0
2007-08	30	41.0	28.0	19.0	11.0	5.0
2008-09	30	42.0	29.0	20.0	12.0	5.0
2009-10	30	42.0	29.0	21.0	12.0	5.0
2010-11	30	42.0	31.0	20.5	13.0	4.0
2011-12	30	44.0	30.0	20.0	10.0	5.0
2012-13	30	25.0	17.0	12.0	7.0	3.0
2013-14	30	42.0	29.0	20.0	12.0	5.0
2014-15	30	42.0	29.0	21.0	13.0	5.0
2015-16	30	40.0	29.5	20.0	11.0	5.0
2016-17	30	40.5	30.0	20.5	12.0	5.0
2017-18	31	47.0	31.0	22.0	13.0	5.0
2018-19	31	49.0	31.0	22.0	14.0	6.0
2019-20	31	39.0	27.0	19.0	11.0	5.0
2020-21	31	31.0	21.0	15.0	10.0	4.0
2021-22	32	50.0	33.0	23.0	15,0	6.0

Defenseman total points:

Season	# teams	1st pair	2nd pair	3rd pair	extras
1917-18	3.27	15.0	1.0
1918-19	3	7.0	0.0
1919-20	4	15.0	0.5
1920-21	4	14.0	1.0
1921-22	4	16.5	0.0
1922-23	4	15.5
1923-24	4	12.0	0.0
1924-25	6	9.0	1.5
1925-26	7	10.5	0.0
1926-27	10	12.0	3.5
1927-28	10	12.0	2.0
1928-29	10	6.5	0.5
1929-30	10	13.0	5.0
1930-31	10	11.0	2.5	0.0
1931-32	8	13.5	5.5
1932-33	9	11.5	5.0
1933-34	9	12.5	4.0	0.0
1934-35	9	13.0	3.5
1935-36	8	13.5	4.5	0.0
1936-37	8	14.0	4.0	0.0
1937-38	8	17.0	4.5	0.0
1938-39	7	13.0	6.0	0.0
1939-40	7	12.0	5.0	0.0
1940-41	7	16.0	5.0	0.0
1941-42	7	16.0	7.5	1.0
1942-43	6	18.0	4.5	0.0
1943-44	6	28.5	7.5	0.0
1944-45	6	21.5	8.0	0.0
1945-46	6	16.0	6.5	1.0
1946-47	6	18.0	10.0	2.5
1947-48	6	19.0	13.5	0.5
1948-49	6	16.0	10.0	3.0
1949-50	6	20.0	12.0	4.5	0.0
1950-51	6	21.0	10.5	5.5	0.5
1951-52	6	20.5	11.0	5.0	0.0
1952-53	6	22.0	11.0	3.0
1953-54	6	20.5	14.0	4.5
1954-55	6	23.0	15.5	2.5
1955-56	6	20.0	13.0	4.0	0.0
1956-57	6	24.0	12.0	4.0
1957-58	6	26.0	11.0	2.0	0.0
1958-59	6	25.5	12.5	2.0
1959-60	6	29.0	14.5	3.0
1960-61	6	32.0	13.0	6.0
1961-62	6	32.5	15.5	7.0	0.0
1962-63	6	25.5	16.0	8.0	1.0
1963-64	6	28.0	14.0	2.5	0.5
1964-65	6	26.5	13.0	7.0	0.0
1965-66	6	28.0	16.5	8.5	2.0
1966-67	6	34.0	15.0	6.0	1.0
1967-68	12	28.0	15.0	5.0	0.0
1968-69	12	31.0	18.0	7.5	0.0
1969-70	12	31.0	16.5	7.5	0.0
1970-71	14	31.5	18.5	10.5	2.0
1971-72	14	36.0	18.5	10.0	0.0
1972-73	16	33.5	19.0	10.0	1.0
1973-74	16	33.5	18.0	10.0	1.5
1974-75	18	36.5	20.5	12.0	1.5
1975-76	18	38.5	19.5	10.0	2.0
1976-77	18	41.5	21.5	11.0	2.0
1977-78	18	41.0	19.0	11.0	3.0
1978-79	17	43.5	25.0	11.0	4.0
1979-80	21	40.5	22.0	13.0	3.5
1980-81	21	52.0	23.0	13.0	4.0
1981-82	21	49.0	24.0	13.0	7.0
1982-83	21	48.0	25.5	13.0	5.0
1983-84	21	49.0	24.0	15.5	6.0
1984-85	21	48.5	26.0	13.0	6.0
1985-86	21	48.5	26.0	14.5	5.0
1986-87	21	44.0	24.5	13.5	6.0
1987-88	21	48.0	25.0	13.0	6.0
1988-89	21	46.5	21.5	14.0	5.5
1989-90	21	47.5	21.0	13.0	5.5
1990-91	21	43.0	23.0	12.0	5.0
1991-92	22	46.0	21.0	12.0	5.0
1992-93	24	49.0	23.5	14.0	6.0
1993-94	26	45.0	22.0	12.0	5.0
1994-95	26	22.5	12.0	6.0	3.0
1995-96	26	36.5	20.0	10.0	4.0
1996-97	26	35.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
1997-98	26	37.0	17.0	9.0	4.0
1998-99	27	33.5	15.0	8.5	4.0
1999-00	28	35.0	18.0	9.5	4.0
2000-01	30	32.5	18.0	10.0	4.5
2001-02	30	33.0	18.0	9.5	3.0
2002-03	30	33.5	16.0	9.0	3.0
2003-04	30	32.5	19.0	8.5	4.0
2005-06	30	39.5	21.0	11.0	5.0
2006-07	30	38.0	21.0	11.0	4.0
2007-08	30	35.0	18.0	10.5	5.0
2008-09	30	39.0	21.0	11.0	5.0
2009-10	30	37.5	20.5	11.0	4.0
2010-11	30	37.5	18.0	10.0	5.0
2011-12	30	33.5	20.0	11.5	5.0
2012-13	30	22.0	11.0	6.0	2.5
2013-14	30	37.0	19.0	11.0	5.0
2014-15	30	38.5	20.0	11.0	4.0
2015-16	30	37.0	19.0	10.0	4.0
2016-17	30	39.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
2017-18	31	38.0	21.0	12.0	5.0
2018-19	31	39.0	22.0	12.0	5.0
2019-20	31	34.0	18.0	9.0	4.0
2020-21	31	27.0	14.0	7.5	3.0
2021-22	32	40.5	22.0	13.0	5.5
2022-23	32	41.0	22.5	13.0	4.0

Defensemen even strength points:

Season	# teams	1st pair	2nd pair	3rd pair	extras
1933-34	9	10.5	3.5	0.0
1934-35	9	11.0	3.0
1935-36	8	10.0	3.5	0.0
1936-37	8	11.0	3.5	0.0
1937-38	8	15.0	3.0	0.0
1938-39	7	11.0	5.5	0.0
1939-40	7	10.0	4.5	0.0
1940-41	7	14.5	5.0	0.0
1941-42	7	13.5	6.5	1.0
1942-43	6	16.5	4.5	0.0
1943-44	6	24.5	6.5	0.0
1944-45	6	19.0	7.0	0.0
1945-46	6	15.0	5.0	0.0
1946-47	6	14.0	8.5	2.0
1947-48	6	15.5	9.5	0.5
1948-49	6	13.0	8.5	2.0
1949-50	6	15.0	8.5	4.5	0.0
1950-51	6	16.0	9.0	5.0	0.0
1951-52	6	16.0	9.0	3.0	0.0
1952-53	6	15.0	9.0	1.5
1953-54	6	16.5	11.0	5.0
1954-55	6	17.0	13.0	2.0
1955-56	6	15.0	10.5	2.5	0.0
1956-57	6	17.5	11.0	3.0
1957-58	6	21.0	10.0	2.0	0.0
1958-59	6	20.5	11.0	2.0
1959-60	6	20.0	12.5	3.0	0.0
1960-61	6	19.5	9.0	5.0
1961-62	6	21.5	13.5	2.0
1962-63	6	20.0	12.0	6.0	0.0
1963-64	6	20.0	12.0	1.5	0.0
1964-65	6	19.5	11.0	5.5	0.0
1965-66	6	18.0	13.0	7.5	1.0
1966-67	6	23.5	13.0	4.5	1.0
1967-68	12	23.5	12.0	4.5	0.0
1968-69	12	25.5	13.5	6.0	0.0
1969-70	12	21.0	12.0	5.0	0.0
1970-71	14	23.0	14.0	8.0	1.0
1971-72	14	26.5	14.0	7.5	0.0
1972-73	16	24.5	14.5	8.0	1.0
1973-74	16	25.0	14.0	8.0	1.0
1974-75	18	24.5	16.0	10.0	1.0
1975-76	18	25.0	15.5	7.0	1.5
1976-77	18	28.0	16.0	8.0	2.0
1977-78	18	27.0	17.0	10.0	2.0
1978-79	17	27.0	18.0	9.5	3.0
1979-80	21	29.0	18.0	11.0	3.0
1980-81	21	30.0	17.0	11.0	3.5
1981-82	21	30.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
1982-83	21	30.5	17.0	10.5	5.0
1983-84	21	28.5	18.0	12.0	5.0
1984-85	21	27.0	18.0	11.0	5.0
1985-86	21	27.0	17.0	11.0	4.0
1986-87	21	26.0	15.0	11.0	5.0
1987-88	21	23.0	14.0	9.0	5.0
1988-89	21	22.5	16.0	10.0	4.0
1989-90	21	26.5	16.0	10.0	4.5
1990-91	21	23.0	15.0	9.0	4.0
1991-92	22	22.0	14.0	9.0	4.0
1992-93	24	26.0	16.0	10.0	5.0
1993-94	26	24.0	14.0	9.0	4.0
1994-95	26	13.0	8.0	5.0	2.0
1995-96	26	21.0	13.0	8.0	3.0
1996-97	26	21.0	14.0	8.0	4.0
1997-98	26	17.5	12.0	7.0	3.0
1998-99	27	18.5	11.0	7.0	3.0
1999-00	28	20.0	12.5	8.0	3.5
2000-01	30	18.0	11.0	7.0	3.5
2001-02	30	18.0	12.0	7.0	3.0
2002-03	30	18.0	12.0	7.0	3.0
2003-04	30	19.0	11.5	7.0	3.0
2005-06	30	19.0	12.5	8.0	3.0
2006-07	30	20.0	13.5	8.0	3.0
2007-08	30	19.0	12.0	8.0	4.0
2008-09	30	21.0	14.0	9.0	4.0
2009-10	30	22.0	15.0	10.0	4.0
2010-11	30	22.0	15.0	9.0	4.0
2011-12	30	22.0	15.0	9.5	4.0
2012-13	30	13.0	8.5	5.0	2.0
2013-14	30	22.0	15.0	10.0	4.0
2014-15	30	25.0	15.5	9.0	4.0
2015-16	30	24.0	15.0	9.0	3.0
2016-17	30	25.0	16.0	10.0	4.0
2017-18	31	27.0	17.0	11.0	4.0
2018-19	31	27.0	17.0	10.0	5.0
2019-20	31	24.5	16.0	8.0	4.0
2020-21	31	19.0	12.0	6.5	3.0
2021-22	32	30.0	19.0	11.5	5.0

Example quick analysis: Shawn Horcoff

From 2005-06 to 2009-10, Horcoff was used as Edmonton's first-line center, but how did he fare compared to the rest of the league?

Cursory glance:

Using both the tables above and here,

Season	Horcoff PTS	Horcoff non-PPGA	1st line PTS	1st line non-PPGA
2005-06	73	67	71.0	52.5
2006-07	51	67	69.0	56.0
2007-08	50	40	65.0	55.0
2008-09	53	47	66.0	55.5

Hmm, doesn't look too good for our intrepid hero. We could just conclude that he was a below-average first liner... But wait! We should adjust for games played!

Deeper into the hole:

Season	GP	Horcoff PTS	Horcoff non-PPGA	Expected PTS	Expected non-PPGA
2005-06	79	73	67	68.4	50.6
2006-07	80	51	67	67.3	54.6
2007-08	53	50	40	42.0	35.5
2008-09	80	53	47	64.4	54.1

But there's still the little problem of team save percentage affecting our hero's non-PPGA! Adjusting by multiplying by factor (1 - NHL SV%)/(1 - team SV%):

Season	GP	Horcoff PTS	Adj. Non-PPGA	Expected PTS	Expected non-PPGA
2005-06	79	73	58.3	68.4	50.6
2006-07	80	51	65.0	67.3	54.6
2007-08	53	50	39.2	42.0	35.5
2008-09	80	53	48.5	64.4	54.1

... Hmm, looks visually better for our hero! But what does this mean in terms of impact?

Rough estimate of goals generated and goals saved versus expectation:

On average, 2.7 points are assigned per goal scored (1 goal plus 1.7 assists). Roughly 4.9 minuses are assigned per non-PP goal scored against (accounting for the occasional 4 vs 4 or 3 vs 3). As such, the goals generated (GG), goals saved (GS), and goal differential (GD) versus expectations are:

Season	GP	diff (PTS)	diff (non-PPGA)	GG v E	GS v E	GD v E
2005-06	79	+4.6	-7.8	+1.7	-1.6	+0.1
2006-07	80	-16.3	-10.4	-6.0	-2.1	-8.2
2007-08	53	+8.0	-3.6	+3.0	-0.7	+2.2
2008-09	80	-11.4	+5.6	-4.2	+1.1	-3.1
Totals	292	-15.1	-16.1	-5.6	-3.3	-8.9

It looks like our hero has fallen short... but he did manage to get a decent contract extension thanks to his play in 2007-08, and isn't that what really matters?

EDIT (May 9, 2021): Added data for 2019-20.

EDIT (December 20, 2021): Added data for 2020-21.

EDIT (April 7, 2022): Added data for 1942-43 through 1949-50.

EDIT (April 11, 2022): Added data for 1938-39 through 1941-42. Expanded data for other seasons. Although there weren't necessarily enough players to form full "4th lines" or "3rd pairs" in earlier seasons, there is some value in knowing the scoring of "utility" players.

EDIT (April 22, 2022): Added data for roster "extras" (i.e. players who usually sit in the pressbox until called upon).

EDIT (April 25, 2022): Added data back all the way to 1917-18.

decma · Jan 25, 2020

Thanks for putting this together.

Do you have a table of career leaders in adjusted points scored above the first line threshold? (that is total points less expected points, with the games played and league save % adjustments you describe in the Horcoff tables? )

This could be done on a gross or net basis (that is, you could zero out the negatives or count them as negatives).

Similarly, do you have career totals for the defensive side and the aggregate?

Thanks.

Black Gold Extractor · Jan 25, 2020

decma said:
Thanks for putting this together.

Do you have a table of career leaders in adjusted points scored above the first line threshold? (that is total points less expected points, with the games played and league save % adjustments you describe in the Horcoff tables? )

This could be done on a gross or net basis (that is, you could zero out the negatives or count them as negatives).

Similarly, do you have career totals for the defensive side and the aggregate?

Thanks.

I can't call up career totals since I discarded the "meta-data" associated with the raw numbers. (In my defense, my spreadsheets were getting pretty big.)

I have been looking at certain players, though. With one final step beyond "goals generated" and "goals saved", you can estimate the standing points (SP) earned or lost relative to expectation by dividing by the league average goals per game. For example, in 1981-82, roughly 8 goals were scored per game, and there were 2 standing points per game, so every 4 goals are worth one standing point.

Of course, it is worth noting that this measures impact rather than performance relative to peers (i.e. dominance), so to speak. For example, the median first-liner had the most points in 1992-93 (86.5 points) followed closely by 1981-82 (86.0 points). This jives well with VsX baseline scores of 148 in 1992-93 and 147 in 1981-82, so it stands to reason that Pat LaFontaine and Mike Bossy performed almost identically (at least offensively) in their respective years. However, due to reduced depth scoring in 1992-93, LaFontaine had the higher offensive impact than Bossy.

Leading point scorers (forwards):

Season	Player	GP	PTS	Non-PPGA	Tm SV%	Exp PTS	Adj non-PPGA	Exp non-PPGA	GG vs E	GS vs E	GD vs E	SP (GG)	SP (GS)	SP vs E	SP (GG) /82	SP (GS) /82	SP vs E /82
1950-51	Howe	70	86			51.0			14.3			5.3			6.2
1951-52	Howe	70	86			51.0			14.0			5.4			6.3
1952-53	Howe	70	95			44.0			20.4			8.5			10.0
1953-54	Howe	70	81			46.0			13.8			5.7			6.7
1954-55	Geoffrion	70	75			53.5			8.4			3.3			3.9
1955-56	Beliveau	70	88			51.0			14.3			5.6			6.6
1956-57	Howe	70	89			53.0			13.8			5.1			6.0
1957-58	Moore	70	84			58.5			9.6			3.4			4.0
1958-59	Moore	70	96			62.0			12.9			4.5			5.2
1959-60	Hull	70	81	52	0.917	67.0	58.3	68.0	5.3	2.0	7.2	1.8	0.7	2.5	2.1	0.8	2.9
1960-61	Geoffrion	64	95	60	0.908	59.4	60.7	55.3	13.4	-1.1	12.3	4.5	-0.4	4.1	5.2	-0.4	4.8
1961-62	Hull	70	84	67	0.913	62.5	73.2	66.0	8.1	-1.5	6.7	2.7	-0.5	2.2	3.2	-0.6	2.6
1962-63	Howe	70	86	53	0.905	62.0	51.9	59.0	9.2	1.5	10.6	3.1	0.5	3.6	3.6	0.6	4.2
1963-64	Mikita	70	89	48	0.927	62.0	55.9	59.5	10.2	0.7	11.0	3.7	0.3	4.0	4.3	0.3	4.6
1964-65	Mikita	70	87	44	0.919	55.0	50.0	50.0	12.2	0.0	12.2	4.2	0.0	4.3	5.0	0.0	5.0
1965-66	Hull	65	97	55	0.915	56.2	62.8	59.4	15.3	-0.7	14.7	5.0	-0.2	4.8	5.9	-0.3	5.6
1966-67	Mikita	70	97	38	0.922	55.0	45.8	56.0	15.9	2.1	18.0	5.3	0.7	6.0	6.3	0.8	7.1
1967-68	Mikita	72	87	74	0.903	56.9	70.2	56.4	11.5	-2.8	8.7	4.1	-1.0	3.1	4.6	-1.1	3.5
1968-69	Esposito	74	126	58	0.907	64.3	58.0	63.3	23.4	1.1	24.5	7.8	0.4	8.2	8.5	0.4	8.9
1969-70	Esposito	76	99	51	0.913	63.0	52.2	59.5	13.8	1.5	15.3	4.7	0.5	5.3	5.1	0.6	5.7
1970-71	Esposito	78	152	67	0.915	65.0	77.2	68.0	33.1	-1.9	31.2	10.6	-0.6	10.0	11.1	-0.6	10.5
1971-72	Esposito	76	133	60	0.910	66.3	66.0	68.2	25.6	0.5	26.0	8.3	0.1	8.5	8.8	0.2	9.0
1972-73	Esposito	78	130	91	0.896	76.5	91.9	75.5	20.3	-3.3	16.9	6.2	-1.0	5.2	6.5	-1.1	5.4
1973-74	Esposito	78	145	85	0.903	69.5	92.0	73.0	28.8	-3.9	24.9	9.0	-1.2	7.8	9.5	-1.3	8.2
1974-75	Esposito	79	127	77	0.890	73.1	77.7	74.1	20.6	-0.7	19.8	6.0	-0.2	5.8	6.2	-0.2	6.0
1975-76	Lafleur	80	125	48	0.921	75.5	67.4	73.5	18.8	1.2	20.1	5.5	0.4	5.9	5.7	0.4	6.1
1976-77	Lafleur	80	136	42	0.917	67.0	56.2	74.0	26.3	3.6	30.0	7.9	1.1	9.0	8.1	1.1	9.2
1977-78	Lafleur	78	132	56	0.912	68.7	71.9	69.2	24.1	-0.5	23.6	7.3	-0.2	7.2	7.5	-0.2	7.3
1978-79	Trottier	76	134	47	0.907	70.3	60.1	69.4	24.2	1.9	26.1	6.9	0.5	7.5	7.1	0.6	7.7
1979-80	Dionne	80	137	76	0.873	75.0	71.8	73.0	23.7	0.2	23.9	6.7	0.1	6.8	6.9	0.1	7.0
1980-81	Gretzky	80	164	98	0.861	75.0	88.8	79.0	34.0	-2.0	32.0	8.8	-0.5	8.3	9.1	-0.5	8.6
1981-82	Gretzky	80	212	109	0.884	86.0	121.2	83.0	47.5	-7.8	39.7	11.8	-1.9	9.9	12.1	-2.0	10.1
1982-83	Gretzky	80	196	99	0.879	79.0	103.9	78.0	44.3	-5.3	39.0	11.5	-1.4	10.1	11.8	-1.4	10.4
1983-84	Gretzky	74	205	103	0.881	76.8	111.7	72.2	48.8	-8.1	40.7	12.4	-2.0	10.3	12.7	-2.1	10.6
1984-85	Gretzky	80	208	92	0.887	81.0	103.4	76.0	47.7	-5.6	42.2	12.3	-1.4	10.9	12.6	-1.5	11.1
1985-86	Gretzky	80	215	121	0.888	78.0	138.3	77.0	51.9	-12.5	39.4	13.1	-3.2	9.9	13.4	-3.2	10.2
1986-87	Gretzky	79	183	93	0.880	74.1	94.6	69.1	41.3	-5.2	36.1	11.2	-1.4	9.8	11.5	-1.4	10.1
1987-88	Lemieux	77	168	82	0.873	76.0	78.8	64.5	34.7	-2.9	31.8	9.4	-0.8	8.6	9.6	-0.8	8.8
1988-89	Lemieux	76	199	103	0.878	77.0	103.8	68.4	45.9	-7.2	38.6	12.3	-1.9	10.3	12.6	-2.0	10.6
1989-90	Gretzky	73	142	114	0.864	73.0	102.3	65.7	25.9	-7.5	18.5	7.0	-2.0	5.0	7.2	-2.1	5.1
1990-91	Gretzky	78	163	100	0.895	69.2	110.5	61.4	35.1	-10.0	25.1	10.2	-2.9	7.3	10.4	-3.0	7.4
1991-92	Lemieux	64	131	85	0.878	61.2	79.4	53.6	26.1	-5.3	20.9	7.5	-1.5	6.0	7.7	-1.6	6.1
1992-93	Lemieux	60	160	66	0.896	61.8	74.3	51.1	36.9	-4.7	32.2	10.2	-1.3	8.9	9.9	-1.3	8.6
1993-94	Gretzky	81	130	109	0.894	72.3	110.0	63.6	21.7	-9.5	12.2	6.7	-2.9	3.8	6.5	-2.9	3.6
1994-95	Jagr	48	70	37	0.900	40.0	37.7	37.0	11.3	-0.2	11.1	3.8	-0.1	3.7	6.5	-0.1	6.4
1995-96	Lemieux	70	161	85	0.900	61.9	88.4	52.9	37.3	-7.2	30.0	11.8	-2.3	9.5	11.8	-2.3	9.5
1996-97	Lemieux	76	122	75	0.900	58.9	73.5	60.2	23.8	-2.7	21.1	8.2	-0.9	7.2	8.2	-0.9	7.3
1997-98	Jagr	77	102	60	0.915	56.3	67.8	49.3	17.2	-3.8	13.5	6.5	-1.4	5.1	6.5	-1.4	5.1
1998-99	Jagr	81	127	87	0.898	57.3	80.5	52.4	26.0	-5.7	20.3	9.9	-2.2	7.7	9.9	-2.2	7.7
1999-00	Jagr	63	96	55	0.900	48.4	53.9	43.0	17.8	-2.2	15.5	6.5	-0.8	5.7	6.5	-0.8	5.7
2000-01	Jagr	81	121	77	0.893	68.7	71.2	55.3	19.4	-3.3	16.1	7.0	-1.2	5.9	7.0	-1.2	5.8
2001-02	Iginla	82	96	57	0.902	62.0	55.3	53.0	12.7	-0.5	12.2	4.8	-0.2	4.7	4.8	-0.2	4.6
2002-03	Forsberg	75	106	42	0.916	55.8	47.0	48.5	18.6	0.3	18.9	7.0	0.1	7.1	7.0	0.1	7.1
2003-04	St. Louis	82	94	51	0.908	55.5	51.0	51.0	14.3	0.0	14.3	5.6	0.0	5.6	5.6	0.0	5.6
2005-06	Thornton	81	125	57	0.895	70.1	54.7	51.9	20.2	-0.6	19.6	6.7	-0.2	6.5	6.7	-0.2	6.5
2006-07	Crosby	79	120	54	0.905	66.5	55.1	54.0	19.5	-0.2	19.3	6.8	-0.1	6.7	6.8	-0.1	6.7
2007-08	Ovechkin	82	112	66	0.900	65.0	62.0	55.0	17.3	-1.4	15.8	6.4	-0.5	5.8	6.4	-0.5	5.9
2008-09	Malkin	82	113	71	0.906	66.0	71.0	55.5	17.2	-3.2	14.1	6.0	-1.1	4.9	6.0	-1.1	4.9
2009-10	H. Sedin	82	112	64	0.910	63.0	64.7	56.5	18.0	-1.7	16.3	6.5	-0.6	5.9	6.5	-0.6	5.9
2010-11	D. Sedin	82	104	44	0.927	61.0	54.2	57.0	15.9	0.6	16.4	5.8	0.2	6.0	5.8	0.2	6.0
2011-12	Malkin	75	109	66	0.903	56.7	60.6	53.5	19.3	-1.4	17.9	7.3	-0.5	6.7	7.3	-0.5	6.8
2012-13	St. Louis	48	60	51	0.899	36.0	46.0	35.0	8.8	-2.2	6.6	3.3	-0.8	2.5	5.7	-1.4	4.3
2013-14	Crosby	80	104	63	0.913	58.5	64.4	54.6	16.8	-2.0	14.8	6.3	-0.8	5.5	6.3	-0.8	5.5
2014-15	Benn	82	87	78	0.895	61.0	66.1	55.5	9.6	-2.2	7.4	3.6	-0.8	2.8	3.6	-0.8	2.8
2015-16	Kane	82	106	68	0.918	59.0	74.6	56.0	17.6	-3.8	13.8	6.6	-1.4	5.2	6.6	-1.4	5.2
2016-17	McDavid	82	100	64	0.918	58.0	70.2	58.0	15.7	-2.5	13.2	5.8	-0.9	4.8	5.8	-0.9	4.9
2017-18	McDavid	82	108	79	0.906	65.0	77.3	64.0	16.0	-2.7	13.3	5.5	-0.9	4.5	5.5	-0.9	4.6
2018-19	Kucherov	82	128	70	0.916	72.0	79.2	71.0	20.9	-1.7	19.2	7.0	-0.6	6.5	7.0	-0.6	6.4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Norris winners:

Season	Player	GP	PTS	Non-PPGA	Team SV%	Exp PTS	Adj non-PPGA	Exp non-PPGA	GG vs E	GS vs E	GD vs E	SP (GG)	SP (GS)	SP vs E	SP (GG) /82	SP (GS) /82	SP vs E /82
1950-51	Kelly	70	54			21.0			13.5			5.0			5.8
1951-52	Kelly	67	47			19.6			11.0			4.2			4.9
1952-53	Kelly	70	46			22.0			9.6			4.0			4.7
1953-54	Kelly	62	49			18.2			12.1			5.1			5.9
1954-55	Harvey	70	49			23.0			10.2			4.0			4.7
1955-56	Harvey	62	44			17.7			10.1			4.0			4.7
1956-57	Harvey	70	50			24.0			10.0			3.7			4.3
1957-58	Harvey	68	41			25.3			5.9			2.1			2.5
1958-59	Johnson	70	39			25.5			5.1			1.8			2.1
1959-60	Harvey	66	37	72	0.915	27.3	78.8	77.3	3.6	-0.3	3.3	1.2	-0.1	1.1	1.4	-0.1	1.3
1960-61	Harvey	58	39	68	0.908	26.5	68.7	64.2	4.7	-0.9	3.8	1.6	-0.3	1.3	1.8	-0.4	1.4
1961-62	Harvey	69	30	77	0.911	32.0	82.2	79.4	-0.8	-0.6	-1.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.5
1962-63	Pilote	59	26	53	0.917	21.5	59.4	66.6	1.7	1.5	3.2	0.6	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.6	1.3
1963-64	Pilote	70	53	67	0.927	28.0	78.0	70.0	9.5	-1.6	7.8	3.4	-0.6	2.8	4.0	-0.7	3.3
1964-65	Pilote	68	59	69	0.919	25.7	78.4	67.5	12.7	-2.2	10.5	4.4	-0.8	3.6	5.2	-0.9	4.3
1965-66	Laperriere	57	31	58	0.912	22.8	63.9	59.9	3.1	-0.8	2.2	1.0	-0.3	0.7	1.2	-0.3	0.9
1966-67	Howell	70	40	81	0.914	34.0	88.5	74.0	2.3	-3.0	-0.7	0.8	-1.0	-0.2	0.9	-1.2	-0.3
1967-68	Orr	46	31	41	0.901	17.4	38.1	51.0	5.2	2.6	7.8	1.9	0.9	2.8	2.1	1.0	3.1
1968-69	Orr	67	64	61	0.907	27.3	61.0	74.5	13.9	2.8	16.6	4.7	0.9	5.6	5.0	1.0	6.0
1969-70	Orr	76	120	59	0.913	31.0	60.4	71.0	34.1	2.2	36.3	11.7	0.7	12.5	12.7	0.8	13.5
1970-71	Orr	78	139	55	0.915	31.5	63.4	80.0	40.9	3.4	44.3	13.1	1.1	14.2	13.8	1.1	14.9
1971-72	Orr	76	117	55	0.910	35.1	60.5	80.4	31.4	4.1	35.4	10.2	1.3	11.6	10.8	1.4	12.2
1972-73	Orr	63	101	61	0.896	27.1	61.6	70.7	28.0	1.9	29.9	8.6	0.6	9.1	9.0	0.6	9.6
1973-74	Orr	74	122	83	0.903	31.8	89.8	84.0	34.4	-1.2	33.2	10.8	-0.4	10.4	11.3	-0.4	10.9
1974-75	Orr	80	135	85	0.890	36.5	85.8	92.0	37.6	1.3	38.9	11.0	0.4	11.3	11.3	0.4	11.7
1975-76	Potvin	78	98	71	0.917	37.5	95.0	83.9	23.0	-2.3	20.7	6.7	-0.7	6.1	6.9	-0.7	6.2
1976-77	Robinson	77	85	64	0.917	39.9	85.6	84.7	17.2	-0.2	17.0	5.2	-0.1	5.1	5.3	-0.1	5.2
1977-78	Potvin	80	94	77	0.907	41.0	93.6	90.0	20.2	-0.7	19.5	6.1	-0.2	5.9	6.3	-0.2	6.1
1978-79	Robinson	73	101	57	0.907	39.7	72.9	80.8	23.3	1.6	24.9	6.7	0.5	7.1	6.8	0.5	7.3
1979-80	Robinson	72	75	76	0.892	36.5	84.4	77.4	14.7	-1.4	13.3	4.2	-0.4	3.8	4.3	-0.4	3.9
1980-81	Carlyle	80	83	118	0.859	52.0	105.4	89.5	11.8	-3.3	8.6	3.1	-0.8	2.2	3.2	-0.9	2.3
1981-82	Wilson	76	85	108	0.863	46.6	101.7	88.8	14.5	-2.6	11.9	3.6	-0.7	3.0	3.7	-0.7	3.0
1982-83	Langway (2nd)	80	32	100	0.877	25.5	103.3	69.5	2.5	-6.9	-4.4	0.6	-1.8	-1.1	0.7	-1.8	-1.1
1983-84	Langway (2nd)	80	33	80	0.884	24.0	89.0	69.5	3.4	-4.0	-0.6	0.9	-1.0	-0.1	0.9	-1.0	-0.1
1984-85	Coffey	80	121	99	0.887	48.5	111.3	90.5	27.3	-4.2	23.0	7.0	-1.1	5.9	7.2	-1.1	6.1
1985-86	Coffey	79	138	118	0.888	47.9	134.9	85.9	34.1	-10.0	24.1	8.6	-2.5	6.1	8.8	-2.6	6.2
1986-87	Bourque	78	95	65	0.883	42.9	67.8	76.5	19.7	1.8	21.5	5.4	0.5	5.9	5.5	0.5	6.0
1987-88	Bourque	78	81	75	0.885	46.8	79.6	72.2	12.9	-1.5	11.4	3.5	-0.4	3.1	3.6	-0.4	3.2
1988-89	Chelios	80	73	70	0.897	46.5	83.6	76.5	10.0	-1.4	8.5	2.7	-0.4	2.3	2.7	-0.4	2.3
1989-90	Bourque	76	84	64	0.892	45.1	72.3	77.0	14.6	0.9	15.6	4.0	0.3	4.2	4.1	0.3	4.4
1990-91	Bourque	76	94	74	0.882	40.9	72.7	71.3	19.9	-0.3	19.6	5.8	-0.1	5.7	5.9	-0.1	5.8
1991-92	Leetch	80	102	89	0.903	46.0	104.6	72.0	21.0	-6.7	14.3	6.0	-1.9	4.1	6.2	-2.0	4.2
1992-93	Chelios	84	73	70	0.900	49.0	81.9	79.0	9.0	-0.6	8.4	2.5	-0.2	2.3	2.4	-0.2	2.2
1993-94	Bourque	72	91	66	0.881	38.6	59.3	61.3	19.7	0.4	20.1	6.1	0.1	6.2	5.9	0.1	6.0
1994-95	Coffey	45	58	43	0.903	21.1	45.2	38.0	13.9	-1.5	12.4	4.6	-0.5	4.2	7.9	-0.8	7.1
1995-96	Chelios	81	72	72	0.906	36.1	79.7	69.1	13.5	-2.1	11.4	4.3	-0.7	3.6	4.3	-0.7	3.6
1996-97	Leetch	82	78	76	0.911	35.0	83.7	68.0	16.2	-3.2	13.0	5.6	-1.1	4.5	5.6	-1.1	4.5
1997-98	Blake	81	50	75	0.909	36.5	79.1	59.3	5.1	-4.1	1.0	1.9	-1.5	0.4	1.9	-1.5	0.4
1998-99	MacInnis	82	62	57	0.888	33.5	47.8	58.0	10.6	2.1	12.7	4.0	0.8	4.8	4.0	0.8	4.8
1999-00	Pronger	79	62	45	0.909	33.7	48.5	59.7	10.6	2.3	12.9	3.8	0.8	4.7	3.8	0.8	4.6
2000-01	Lidstrom	82	71	71	0.909	32.5	77.2	59.0	14.3	-3.7	10.5	5.2	-1.4	3.8	5.2	-1.4	3.8
2001-02	Lidstrom	78	59	62	0.913	31.4	67.7	56.1	10.3	-2.4	7.9	3.9	-0.9	3.0	3.9	-0.9	3.0
2002-03	Lidstrom	82	62	59	0.914	33.5	64.5	60.0	10.6	-0.9	9.6	4.0	-0.3	3.6	4.0	-0.3	3.7
2003-04	Niedermayer	81	54	50	0.918	32.1	56.1	54.3	8.1	-0.4	7.8	3.2	-0.1	3.0	3.2	-0.1	3.1
2005-06	Lidstrom	80	80	59	0.906	38.5	63.4	56.1	15.2	-1.5	13.8	5.0	-0.5	4.5	5.0	-0.5	4.5
2006-07	Lidstrom	80	62	48	0.905	37.1	49.0	60.5	9.1	2.3	11.4	3.2	0.8	4.0	3.2	0.8	4.0
2007-08	Lidstrom	76	70	44	0.907	32.4	44.5	55.1	13.8	2.2	16.0	5.1	0.8	5.9	5.1	0.8	5.9
2008-09	Chara	80	50	61	0.925	38.0	76.5	62.4	4.4	-2.9	1.5	1.5	-1.0	0.5	1.5	-1.0	0.5
2009-10	Keith	79	69	81	0.901	36.1	74.5	60.7	12.1	-2.8	9.3	4.4	-1.0	3.4	4.4	-1.0	3.4
2010-11	Lidstrom	82	62	71	0.906	37.5	68.0	64.0	9.0	-0.8	8.2	3.3	-0.3	3.0	3.3	-0.3	3.0
2011-12	Karlsson	81	78	80	0.910	33.1	79.1	61.2	16.6	-3.6	12.9	6.2	-1.4	4.9	6.2	-1.4	4.8
2012-13	Subban	42	38	25	0.904	19.3	23.7	32.4	6.9	1.8	8.7	2.6	0.7	3.3	4.4	1.1	5.5
2013-14	Keith	79	61	71	0.905	35.6	66.5	60.7	9.4	-1.2	8.2	3.5	-0.4	3.1	3.5	-0.4	3.1
2014-15	Karlsson	82	66	83	0.921	38.5	93.5	64.5	10.1	-5.9	4.2	3.8	-2.2	1.6	3.8	-2.2	1.6
2015-16	Doughty	82	51	53	0.915	37.0	56.1	62.5	5.2	1.3	6.5	2.0	0.5	2.5	2.0	0.5	2.5
2016-17	Burns	82	76	68	0.912	39.0	69.5	66.0	13.8	-0.7	13.1	5.1	-0.3	4.8	5.1	-0.3	4.8
2017-18	Hedman	77	63	61	0.913	35.7	64.5	65.7	10.2	0.3	10.4	3.5	0.1	3.6	3.5	0.1	3.6
2018-19	Giordano	78	74	64	0.903	37.1	62.7	69.9	13.8	1.5	15.2	4.6	0.5	5.1	4.6	0.5	5.1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Selke winners:

Season	Player	GP	PTS	Non-PPGA	Team SV%	Line	Exp PTS	Adj non-PPGA	Exp non-PPGA	GG v E	GS v E	GD v E	SP (GG)	SP (GS)	SP v E	SP (GG) /82	SP (GS) /82	SP v E /82
1977-78	Gainey	66	31	31	0.912	2	40.0	39.8	44.6	-3.4	1.0	-2.5	-1.0	0.3	-0.8	-1.1	0.3	-0.8
1978-79	Gainey	79	38	55	0.900	2	49.4	65.5	54.3	-4.3	-2.3	-6.6	-1.2	-0.6	-1.9	-1.3	-0.7	-2.0
1979-80	Gainey	64	33	50	0.892	2	39.2	55.6	45.6	-2.4	-2.0	-4.4	-0.7	-0.6	-1.3	-0.7	-0.6	-1.3
1980-81	Gainey	78	47	58	0.890	2	55.6	66.4	56.6	-3.3	-2.0	-5.3	-0.9	-0.5	-1.4	-0.9	-0.5	-1.4
1981-82	Kasper	73	51	79	0.861	3	35.6	73.3	42.9	5.8	-6.2	-0.4	1.4	-1.5	-0.1	1.5	-1.6	-0.1
1982-83	Clarke	80	85	46	0.886	1	79.0	51.2	78.0	2.3	5.5	7.7	0.6	1.4	2.0	0.6	1.4	2.0
1983-84	Jarvis	80	42	47	0.884	3	36.0	52.3	46.0	2.3	-1.3	1.0	0.6	-0.3	0.3	0.6	-0.3	0.3
1984-85	Ramsay	79	33	30	0.875	3	34.6	30.5	45.4	-0.6	3.1	2.5	-0.2	0.8	0.6	-0.2	0.8	0.6
1985-86	Murray	80	99	68	0.875	1	78.0	69.6	77.0	8.0	1.5	9.5	2.0	0.4	2.4	2.1	0.4	2.5
1986-87	Poulin	75	70	40	0.900	2	47.8	48.8	53.4	8.4	0.9	9.4	2.3	0.3	2.5	2.3	0.3	2.6
1987-88	Carbonneau	80	38	33	0.897	3	30.0	39.1	40.0	3.0	0.2	3.2	0.8	0.1	0.9	0.8	0.1	0.9
1988-89	Carbonneau	79	56	30	0.897	2	50.4	35.8	51.4	2.1	3.2	5.3	0.6	0.8	1.4	0.6	0.9	1.5
1989-90	Meagher	76	25	32	0.882	3	30.4	33.1	38.0	-2.0	1.0	-1.0	-0.6	0.3	-0.3	-0.6	0.3	-0.3
1990-91	Graham	80	45	43	0.905	2	45.0	52.5	51.0	0.0	-0.3	-0.3	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	-0.1
1991-92	Carbonneau	72	39	47	0.907	3	26.6	57.6	33.3	4.7	-5.0	-0.3	1.3	-1.4	-0.1	1.4	-1.5	-0.1
1992-93	Gilmour	83	127	55	0.901	1	85.5	65.0	70.6	15.6	1.2	16.8	4.3	0.3	4.6	4.2	0.3	4.5
1993-94	Fedorov	82	120	71	0.881	1	73.2	63.8	64.4	17.6	0.1	17.7	5.4	0.0	5.5	5.3	0.0	5.3
1994-95	Francis	44	59	22	0.900	1	36.7	22.4	33.9	8.4	2.3	10.7	2.8	0.8	3.6	4.8	1.3	6.1
1995-96	Fedorov	78	107	38	0.909	1	69.0	43.4	59.0	14.3	3.2	17.5	4.5	1.0	5.6	4.5	1.0	5.5
1996-97	Peca	79	49	33	0.924	2	39.5	42.6	43.4	3.6	0.2	3.7	1.2	0.1	1.3	1.2	0.1	1.3
1997-98	Lehtinen	72	42	31	0.911	2	32.0	33.4	34.2	3.8	0.2	3.9	1.4	0.1	1.5	1.4	0.1	1.5
1998-99	Lehtinen	74	52	33	0.915	2	36.1	36.5	37.0	5.9	0.1	6.0	2.3	0.0	2.3	2.3	0.0	2.3
1999-00	Yzerman	78	79	49	0.903	1	59.9	49.5	53.3	7.1	0.8	7.9	2.6	0.3	2.9	2.6	0.3	2.9
2000-01	Madden	80	38	27	0.904	3	25.4	27.8	31.2	4.7	0.7	5.4	1.7	0.3	1.9	1.7	0.3	2.0
2001-02	Peca	80	60	46	0.904	1	60.5	45.5	51.7	-0.2	1.3	1.1	-0.1	0.5	0.4	-0.1	0.5	0.4
2002-03	Lehtinen	80	48	27	0.918	2	38.0	31.0	39.0	3.7	1.6	5.3	1.4	0.6	2.0	1.4	0.6	2.0
2003-04	Draper	67	40	26	0.912	2	30.2	27.2	30.2	3.6	0.6	4.3	1.4	0.2	1.7	1.4	0.2	1.6
2005-06	Brind’Amour	78	70	52	0.897	1	67.5	51.0	49.9	0.9	-0.2	0.7	0.3	-0.1	0.2	0.3	-0.1	0.2
2006-07	Brind’Amour	78	82	61	0.894	1	65.6	55.8	53.3	6.0	-0.5	5.5	2.1	-0.2	1.9	2.1	-0.2	1.9
2007-08	Datsyuk	82	97	43	0.907	1	65.0	43.5	55.0	11.8	2.4	14.1	4.3	0.9	5.2	4.3	0.9	5.2
2008-09	Datsyuk	81	97	50	0.894	1	65.2	44.3	54.8	11.7	2.1	13.8	4.1	0.8	4.8	4.1	0.8	4.9
2009-10	Datsyuk	80	70	44	0.914	1	61.5	46.6	55.1	3.1	1.7	4.9	1.1	0.6	1.8	1.1	0.6	1.7
2010-11	Kesler	82	73	39	0.927	1	61.0	48.1	57.0	4.4	1.8	6.2	1.6	0.7	2.3	1.6	0.7	2.3
2011-12	Bergeron	81	64	34	0.918	1	61.2	36.9	57.8	1.0	4.3	5.3	0.4	1.6	2.0	0.4	1.6	2.0
2012-13	Toews	47	48	25	0.923	1	35.3	29.5	34.3	4.7	1.0	5.7	1.8	0.4	2.1	3.0	0.6	3.6
2013-14	Bergeron	80	62	35	0.928	1	58.5	43.3	54.6	1.3	2.3	3.6	0.5	0.9	1.3	0.5	0.9	1.4
2014-15	Bergeron	81	55	52	0.918	1	60.3	56.4	54.8	-1.9	-0.3	-2.3	-0.7	-0.1	-0.9	-0.7	-0.1	-0.8
2015-16	Kopitar	81	74	46	0.915	1	58.3	48.7	55.3	5.9	1.3	7.2	2.2	0.5	2.7	2.2	0.5	2.7
2016-17	Bergeron	79	53	51	0.905	1	55.9	48.3	55.9	-1.1	1.5	0.5	-0.4	0.6	0.2	-0.4	0.6	0.2
2017-18	Kopitar	82	92	63	0.920	1	65.0	72.5	64.0	10.0	-1.7	8.3	3.4	-0.6	2.8	3.4	-0.6	2.8
2018-19	O’Reilly	82	77	55	0.906	1	72.0	55.6	71.0	1.9	3.1	5.0	0.6	1.1	1.7	0.6	1.1	1.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So what do I think? It think this does an okay job showing relative impact of offense and defense, and it does an okay job estimating defense (at least better than Hockey-Reference's defensive point shares... which routinely gave the best-on-team marks to guys like Gretzky and Coffey since it used plus-minus as a purely defensive measure). Using total points for a quick analysis is probably unfair to lower lines, but as some say, a goal is a goal whether it comes at even strength or with special teams. I'd believe that 97-point Datsyuk probably provided similar value to 113-point Malkin (both being ~5 standing points above expectation)... but do I believe that Guy Lafleur could provide better defensive value than Bryan Trottier for a season or two, or that everyone was wrong about Gainey? No.

It might be a futile effort to delineate offense entirely from defense, especially when the only defensive measurements include the entire team. Perhaps ESGF/ESGA and R-ON and R-OFF are fairer measures than trying to "fix" point shares since it allows both offensive and defensive contribution to be equally fuzzy and interlinked, and frankly the point is to outscore the opposition, is it not? Perhaps WOWY (despite small-sample-size problems) over large stretches makes more sense, as the player is literally removed from the team and thus we can calculate differences in GF and GA, even if we lose the ability to focus in on seasons where the player plays every game...

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