He tells me that what will be the downfall is some economic factors, like rampant inflation not equal to wage hikes and internet with the younger crowds. What else donyou see? And you know you are taking great chances writing this?
I can't tell you much on a personal level (it will be interesting to read what bsl has to say on the subject) but China's economy has been very interesting lately.
Wages last year grew by 8% after controlling for inflation. 9.2% for rural income vs 6.8% for urban income thus reducing the gap between rural and urban income from a peak of 3.3:1 in 2009 to 2.9:1 last year. (source : The Economist)
Another interesting fact is that the services sector accounted for 48.2% of the economy last year.
As wages are growing low cost activities are being passed to large low income populations in South-East Asia. In a near future China won't be seen anymore as the world's manufacturing plant.
Not everything is bright though, China's GDP is about half what it was 10 years ago and their stock Market will come crashing down sooner or later. Stocks are valued about 30% more in mainland than in Hong kong and the CSI 300 (index that includes China's biggest stocks) has risen by 150% over the past year which is crazy.
Not later than this week, MSCI refused to include China's shares into its index which mean that China won't be able to have access to billions of foreign dollars.
On the other hand though, China has been able to convince 57 countries so far to join its new asian infrastructure investment bank (AIIB) to fund its $8 trillion infrastructure investment projects within the next 10 years. The AIIB could become a competitor to the World Bank down the road, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
