Puck Drop Preview 2018-19 Los Angeles Kings

[LastWordArmy]

Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2018-19, where Last Word On Hockey gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and offers our insight and analysis. Make sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our 2018-19 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Today the series continues with the Los Angeles Kings.


Puck Drop Preview: 2018-19 Los Angeles Kings - Last Word on Hockey

Click to read more...

 

[Fingolfin]

They lost me as soon as their projected lineup included Sheldon Rempal, but not Trevor Lewis.

 

[Fishhead]

Good effort, but the writer obviously doesn't follow the Kings and just looked at a stat sheet.

The team doesn't rely heavily on Tyler Toffoli and never has. Perhaps Jonathan Quick would have been a better choice here.

Seeing Doughty/Muzzin with any regularity would shock me. Forbort is going to be with Doughty, because that's who he plays best with. I seriously doubt they put him with Brickley, a rookie and a guy playing out of position on the right seems like a terrible combination. Doughty, Martinez, and Muzzin are highly likely to be on different lines except in certain situations.

I also don't think Folin is a minor league player, but that might just be me..

 

[AlphaBravo]

I don't see how our defense is at all in question. We are very deep on defense. I don't agree that it can be subpar, unless Doughty gets injured. It's also weird that he considers our bottom 6 to be questionable. The amount of production we got out of Kempe and Lewis alone last year probably competes well with the rest of the league's bottom 6.

The big question mark (other than injures which is obvious for any team) is whether Toffoli and Pearson can step up their game. I think how well we do really depends on them because these two players have been hot and cold for several seasons now. We need stability in scoring from them for our top 6 to be successful.

 

[lumbergh]

Good effort, but the writer obviously doesn't follow the Kings and just looked at a stat sheet.

The team doesn't rely heavily on Tyler Toffoli and never has. Perhaps Jonathan Quick would have been a better choice here.

Seeing Doughty/Muzzin with any regularity would shock me. Forbort is going to be with Doughty, because that's who he plays best with. I seriously doubt they put him with Brickley, a rookie and a guy playing out of position on the right seems like a terrible combination. Doughty, Martinez, and Muzzin are highly likely to be on different lines except in certain situations.

I also don't think Folin is a minor league player, but that might just be me..

Not to nitpick, but going back to 2013, Muzzin has been Doughty’s best and most consistent partner. If you look at goals for %, Corsi for %, anything like that for 5 on 5 play, Muzzin makes Doughty a better player, year after year. Forbort, on the other hand, generally makes Doughty a less effective player, mainly because he doesn’t make plays with the puck like Muzzin. According to the stats, I could make a good argument that Forbort has actually been the worst partner Doughty has had.

If Forbort wasn’t playing with Doughty, he’d be a #6 on this team. The Kings have tried to play Muzzin on another line to spread the wealth, but the Muzzin-Martinez experiment was a failure. We’ll see if Muzzin-LaDue works out, but I would not be at all surprised if Muzzin plays a good chunk of the season next to Doughty. When together, these two might be the best pairing in the league.

 

[Fishhead]

Not to nitpick, but going back to 2013, Muzzin has been Doughty’s best and most consistent partner. If you look at goals for %, Corsi for %, anything like that for 5 on 5 play, Muzzin makes Doughty a better player, year after year. Forbort, on the other hand, generally makes Doughty a less effective player, mainly because he doesn’t make plays with the puck like Muzzin. According to the stats, I could make a good argument that Forbort has actually been the worst partner Doughty has had.

If Forbort wasn’t playing with Doughty, he’d be a #6 on this team. The Kings have tried to play Muzzin on another line to spread the wealth, but the Muzzin-Martinez experiment was a failure. We’ll see if Muzzin-LaDue works out, but I would not be at all surprised if Muzzin plays a good chunk of the season next to Doughty. When together, these two might be the best pairing in the league.

I totally agree with all this, Forbort is an anchor to Doughty. My wording was poor when I said "that's who he plays best with", I was talking about Forbort there, not Doughty. Drew's numbers skyrocket with Muzzin and Forbort has been pretty bad with everyone else. That poses a problem as they need him to be able to play with others 5v5, because the team certainly needs his PK prowess.

 

[KingTrouty]

I totally agree with all this, Forbort is an anchor to Doughty. My wording was poor when I said "that's who he plays best with", I was talking about Forbort there, not Doughty. Drew's numbers skyrocket with Muzzin and Forbort has been pretty bad with everyone else. That poses a problem as they need him to be able to play with others 5v5, because the team certainly needs his PK prowess.

Forbort has not been an anchor for Drew. "Doughty's numbers skyrocket with Muzzin" gtho

And I adore Muzzin, but Forbort gets too much shade cuz he is a SAH D in this new crack-addict speed league. And last year, he was still developing. A still developing player. That played 20 mins a night.

Not to nitpick, but going back to 2013, Muzzin has been Doughty’s best and most consistent partner. If you look at goals for %, Corsi for %, anything like that for 5 on 5 play, Muzzin makes Doughty a better player, year after year. Forbort, on the other hand, generally makes Doughty a less effective player, mainly because he doesn’t make plays with the puck like Muzzin. According to the stats, I could make a good argument that Forbort has actually been the worst partner Doughty has had.

If Forbort wasn’t playing with Doughty, he’d be a #6 on this team. The Kings have tried to play Muzzin on another line to spread the wealth, but the Muzzin-Martinez experiment was a failure. We’ll see if Muzzin-LaDue works out, but I would not be at all surprised if Muzzin plays a good chunk of the season next to Doughty. When together, these two might be the best pairing in the league.

Doughty had his highest point total last season. Advanced stats are nice. But so are points. And a Norris-worthy season. With Forbort on his left side.

 

[Fishhead]

Forbort has not been an anchor for Drew. "Doughty's numbers skyrocket with Muzzin" gtho

And I adore Muzzin, but Forbort gets too much shade cuz he is a SAH D in this new crack-addict speed league. And last year, he was still developing. A still developing player. That played 20 mins a night.

Doughty had his highest point total last season. Advanced stats are nice. But so are points. And a Norris-worthy season. With Forbort on his left side.

His numbers do skyrocket. And Forbort is terrible without Doughty.

Corsi For%

DD with JM = 56.79
DD with DF = 51.73
DF w/0 DD = 48.26

Shots For%

DD with JM = 54.41
DD with DF = 51.9
DF w/0 DD = 47.92

Scoring Chance For %

DD with JM = 57.96
DD with DF = 50.15
DF w/0 DD = 46.62

Goals For %

DD with JM = 62.5 (!)
DD with DF = 56.62
DF w/0 DD = 51.72

High danger chances for/against %

DD with JM = 51.28
DD with DF = 47.31
DF w/0 DD = 45.71


Forbort is an anchor. Drew was far better offensively and even better defensively. Forbort gets shade because outside of his first 20 games or so he hasn’t been good. He’s an excellent PK’er, but that’s about it. There is over a 10% tilt in scoring chances when Drew is with Jake over Forbort. Forbort bleeds high danger chances against, even with Drew they allow more than they generate.

Drew would have won the Norris with Muzzin, he likely would have led all defense in points with ridiculous goals against numbers.

 

[KingTrouty]

His numbers do skyrocket. And Forbort is terrible without Doughty.

Corsi For%

DD with JM = 56.79
DD with DF = 51.73
DF w/0 DD = 48.26

Shots For%

DD with JM = 54.41
DD with DF = 51.9
DF w/0 DD = 47.92

Scoring Chance For %

DD with JM = 57.96
DD with DF = 50.15
DF w/0 DD = 46.62

Goals For %

DD with JM = 62.5 (!)
DD with DF = 56.62
DF w/0 DD = 51.72

High danger chances for/against %

DD with JM = 51.28
DD with DF = 47.31
DF w/0 DD = 45.71


Forbort is an anchor. Drew was far better offensively and even better defensively. Forbort gets shade because outside of his first 20 games or so he hasn’t been good. He’s an excellent PK’er, but that’s about it. There is over a 10% tilt in scoring chances when Drew is with Jake over Forbort. Forbort bleeds high danger chances against, even with Drew they allow more than they generate.

Drew would have won the Norris with Muzzin, he likely would have led all defense in points with ridiculous goals against numbers.

You are speaking in absolutes for a still developing D in Forbort.

I told you the advanced stats are nice, and no one here is saying Forbort is better than Muzzin. But did Drew just not have a career year? He was better than Hedman. Had a better 2017-18 season than Hedman. With Forbort.

The only way Drew wins it with Muzzin, is if he puts up significantly more points, while still maintaining his dominant corsi etc, and I mean 10-15 more points. We saw Drew get the most first place votes for the Norris in 2014-15, and beat an EK with, what, ~90 pts in 2015-16? Does he get that added point total (now we're talking 70-75 pts) paired with Muzzin all year? And if he is paired with Muzz all year, do we make the playoffs with Forbort on the 2nd or 3rd pairing?

Fish, this is all I need to know: Drew loves Forbort. Added to that, he passes the eye test for me. I think we have a blossoming top-4 (not only in minutes, but skill) SAH D in Forbort.

 

[Fishhead]

You are speaking in absolutes for a still developing D in Forbort.

I told you the advanced stats are nice, and no one here is saying Forbort is better than Muzzin. But did Drew just not have a career year? He was better than Hedman. Had a better 2017-18 season than Hedman. With Forbort.

The only way Drew wins it with Muzzin, is if he puts up significantly more points, while still maintaining his dominant corsi etc, and I mean 10-15 more points. We saw Drew get the most first place votes for the Norris in 2014-15, and beat an EK with, what, ~90 pts in 2015-16? Does he get that added point total (now we're talking 70-75 pts) paired with Muzzin all year? And if he is paired with Muzz all year, do we make the playoffs with Forbort on the 2nd or 3rd pairing?

Fish, this is all I need to know: Drew loves Forbort. Added to that, he passes the eye test for me. I think we have a blossoming top-4 (not only in minutes, but skill) SAH D in Forbort.

I agree he's still developing, but that has nothing to do with the fact that he drags Drew down. Do we make the playoffs with Forbort on the 2nd or 3rd regularly? Maybe not, and that speaks volumes. It means he needs sheltering by the best D-man in the NHL and he has been bad with everyone else. I like your optimism, but that is not a top-4 guy. He's 26 years old and still developing after 361 pro games (187 AHL/174 NHL). If he had top-4 in him, he would have shown that by now.

And I know Drew loves him, and he said he loved McNabb, and Mitchell, and Scuderi, pretty much everyone he played with. That Norris he won next to McNabb was dominant, the best he's ever played. Drew was great this year, but he was on the ice for more ES goals against than any other season in his career which probably cost him the trophy.

Carlson led d-men with 68 points this year. I absolutely think that Muzzin full time gets Drew 6 more assists, a few more goals, and fewer goals against. And I think if he does that he wins another Norris.

 

[KingTrouty]

I agree he's still developing, but that has nothing to do with the fact that he drags Drew down. Do we make the playoffs with Forbort on the 2nd or 3rd regularly? Maybe not, and that speaks volumes. It means he needs sheltering by the best D-man in the NHL and he has been bad with everyone else. I like your optimism, but that is not a top-4 guy. He's 26 years old and still developing after 361 pro games (187 AHL/174 NHL). If he had top-4 in him, he would have shown that by now.

And I know Drew loves him, and he said he loved McNabb, and Mitchell, and Scuderi, pretty much everyone he played with. That Norris he won next to McNabb was dominant, the best he's ever played. Drew was great this year, but he was on the ice for more ES goals against than any other season in his career which probably cost him the trophy.

Carlson led d-men with 68 points this year. I absolutely think that Muzzin full time gets Drew 6 more assists, a few more goals, and fewer goals against. And I think if he does that he wins another Norris.

Fair enough, Fish. We shall see.