Protect your players!

[GreatEight]

With all the talk of the expansion draft and the protection lists being made public, I thought it would be fun to see who everyone would choose to protect if they had the chance. I am making mine assuming we lose Shattenkirk but hoping we we-sign Oshie.

I would choose to take the 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender option.

Goalie: Holtby

Defenseman: Carlson/Niskanen/Orlov (Maybe Alzner but I am concerned he won't be back)

Forwards: Ovechkin/Backstrom/Oshie/Kuznetsov/Burakovsky/Johansson/Wilson

Click to read more...

 

[bacchist]

Your look good, but I'd expose MoJo and protect Beagle.

 

[GreatEight]

Your look good, but I'd expose MoJo and protect Beagle.

Beagle was on my mind as well actually. Johansson having a career year gave him the edge for me though.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Beagle isn't getting selected. Mojo would.

 

[searle]

Your look good, but I'd expose MoJo and protect Beagle.

MoJo would definitely get picked by Vegas - it'd be bad asset management to let him walk for nothing, surely trading him for assets before the expansion draft would be better?

Legit top 6 forward should surely at least get a 1st....

 

[RandyHolt]

Protect your players? More like protect your nuts

My latest line of thinking, expose your most overpaid players.

 

[Hivemind]

Swap Oshie (UFA) for Eller on the OP's list and you have mine. Also some consideration for protecting Connolly over Wilson, but at this point I'll edge Wilson.

If they play Schmidt at forward for one game, can they protect him as a forward?

 

[Caps Circle]

They won't protect Oshie (UFA). Would rather protect Beagle/Connolly.

 

[twabby]

F: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Johansson, Burakovsky, Eller, Wilson/Connolly

D: Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov

G: Holtby

A few weeks ago Connolly was the clear choice over Wilson for me, but now I'm not sure. Might come down to playoff performance.

 

[txpd]

Ive reached a point where I don't even think the Caps qualify Connolly. I don't think they want to keep him.

He could have a big playoffs in a successful playoff run and change that, but he plays the fewest minutes of any forward on the roster. I think that is descriptive of where the organEYEzation ranks him.

 

[PB12]

I would protect Oshie. I could see them picking him on the fact that he is a recognizable name.

 

[twabby]

I would protect Oshie. I could see them picking him on the fact that he is a recognizable name.

If they re-sign him before the draft then protecting Oshie is a no-brainer.

An undermentioned part of re-signing Oshie is that he's probably going to command a NTC/NMC wherever he goes and the Capitals have been hesitant to hand those out. I can imagine family stability being a big deal for Oshie since he has two kids who will be starting school soon and those considerations are typically more important for players in their 30s than 20s.

 

[Hivemind]

I would protect Oshie. I could see them picking him on the fact that he is a recognizable name.

Vegas picking him would be meaningless unless Vegas can sign him. Without Oshie signing an extension, all they'd be drafting would be his UFA rights.

If Oshie simply wants to maximize his contract value (and that's what Vegas offers him during the period they can negotiate prior to the expansion draft), then the Caps aren't going to be able to keep him anyway.

 

[txpd]

smart players already know that the no trade/no movement clause only gives them some control over where they go.

If Oshie wants to stay badly enough to make a cap friendly contract deal, he's not going to walk away because the Caps didn't bring the NTC.

He either wants to stay or he doesn't.

 

[Hivemind]

He either wants to stay or he doesn't.

Or he wants to stay at a rate that he feels will provide financial security for his family for the rest of their lives.
Or he wants to stay at a rate that is in line with his perceived value.
Or he wants to stay but wants the family stability provided by a full No Movement Clause.


This is hardly the binary system you present it as.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Givens that nobody needed spelled out, but thanks.

Zero chance he doesn't at least get a limited NMC. He'll either chase the last penny and go to a lesser team, or he loves it here and is willing to take a little less to make it happen. Caps aren't paying full market value for him. I feel like that's a certainty.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

F: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Johansson, Burakovsky, Eller, Wilson/Connolly

D: Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov

G: Holtby

A few weeks ago Connolly was the clear choice over Wilson for me, but now I'm not sure. Might come down to playoff performance.

This is what it comes down to IMO, agreed on your list. Earlier this season when people started talking up Connolly, I chuckled to myself because the warning signs are there with his production.

He's not getting protected unless he explodes in the playoffs and puts in a heroic performance, but that caveat pertains to many players.

 

[Hivemind]

Givens that nobody needed spelled out, but thanks.

Zero chance he doesn't at least get a limited NMC. He'll either chase the last penny and go to a lesser team, or he loves it here and is willing to take a little less to make it happen. Caps aren't paying full market value for him. I feel like that's a certainty.

Considering txpd said that NMCs "only gives them some control over where they go" I think it's obvious that some do need it spelled out. If a player has a full No Movement Clause (which the Caps have not awarded under either MacLellan or McPhee), they have absolute say over accepting or rejecting any transactions from the team that they signed the deal with. txpd was conflating NMCs with NTCs. There's a pretty significant difference between the two (and a pretty significant difference between a partial and full NTC), so it wouldn't be wise to lump the two together.

Moreover, txpd's simplified "either he wants to stay or he doesn't" is a woefully inadequate description. Oshie may want to stay, but may also value the ability to keep Lyla in the same school district for the next several years, and thus highly value the proposition of a full NMC and/or extra contract years. If that was the case, the Capitals may not end up being his final selection, given the franchise's reluctance to grant full NTCs or NMCs to any player (including Ovechkin, Holtby, and Backstrom). There's are numerous factors that goes into a players' decision.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think he would walk if the Caps refused a full NTC either (which they would). Can we just assume that Oshie isn't getting that here and frame all future conversations with that likelihood in mind so we don't have to spell it out in every post?

At a minimum he's going to get SOME form of a 10 or 7 team NTC IMO (similar to 8&19). Clearly TXPD wasn't referring to a full NMC/NTC because he references "some control".

The financial incentives will be greater and he might even get a full NMC/NTC from a bad team on the open market, so yeah after weighing $, quality of life geographically, and the likelihood of team success, it's probably going to come down ultimately to if he wants to raise his family here or if he wants to chase every penny he can get. I guess I don't find his statement "woefully inadequate" because I can fill in the blanks? 2 pts for dramatization though.

Agree on the conflating NMC/NTC thing...SHOULD be a NTC we're referencing here. I don't think he'll need a NMC myself.

 

[Hivemind]

You're still framing it as "he wants to raise his family [in DC]" vs "chasing pennies." It's entirely possible that he choses a middle route where he doesn't get paid as much, but gets stability via NMC. He could very well chose a middle-of-the-pack bidder who offers the NMC over both Washington and the highest bidder. Similarly, he could also reject a Washington offer (despite wanting to raise his family in DC) because it didn't have enough term for him to feel comfortable with the financial and regional stability provided. It's not necessarily about "chasing pennies."

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The two biggest determining factors will be $ (total guaranteed compensation) and where he wants to raise his family. Yes. Followed closely by the likelyhood of team success IMO.

Sure there are other factors that nobody needs a lesson on (thanks though) that will carry some weight.

You keep mentioning "stability. You feel like a 10 team NTC is bad, even though that's what the franchise player has? IMO Oshie wouldn't expect more here. If he is, he's already gone. Caps wouldn't give that with this player. IMO.

 

[txpd]

oh..geez. we all know that no trade and no movement clauses very often don't prevent movement. yea, a nmc will keep an nhl player from getting buried in the AHL.

players waive or waive for specific deals their ntc all the time. Eric Staal did it last season. Did he not?

its my opinion that with the Caps cap situation that Oshie cant get a market contract and stay in Washington. He has to want to stay and make it work for the team.

Hey....I could be wrong.

 

[Hivemind]

oh..geez. we all know that no trade and no movement clauses very often don't prevent movement. yea, a nmc will keep an nhl player from getting buried in the AHL.

players waive or waive for specific deals their ntc all the time. Eric Staal did it last season. Did he not?

its my opinion that with the Caps cap situation that Oshie cant get a market contract and stay in Washington. He has to want to stay and make it work for the team.

Hey....I could be wrong.

An NMC prevents BOTH trades and getting buried in the AHL without the players' consent. A full NMC or full NTC would require a player waive their clause to get traded anywhere. If you get a full NMC, you don't have to move if you don't want to. It gives the player full power. They can CHOSE to waive it, but the ball is in their court. It's not "some control," it's veto power over any movement.

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

Any NMCs on the Caps? Are those the only auto-protects, or any kind of NTC?

 

[Hivemind]

Any NMCs on the Caps? Are those the only auto-protects, or any kind of NTC?

As just mentioned in the Oshie conversation, the Capitals have not awarded any NMCs under MacLellan or McPhee. NTCs do not guarantee protection.