Projecting a specific player vs. peers

[soireeculturelle]

Was having water cooler talk with a coworker, and he was talking about a bet he made years ago with a friend about a certain 24-year old centerman putting up 69 points in a season by the time he is 25. Pulled up some comparables for him on hockey reference in terms of games played before age 25 and points per game up to that point. Seems like my buddy is in tough with his particular prediction.

Anyway, when it comes to predicting future results, what method do you find to be more accurate? 1) A weighed average of the players' past result, as proposed here: http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/1/23/5333626/nhl-projecting-scoring-rates


2) or start a baseline prediction (league average for whatever group of player you are projecting - let's say PPG of centermen aged 24 who have played 4 NHL seasons) and then adjust from there. Was reading Thinking Fast and Slow and it seems that this is the approach that the author endorses since it better reflects regression to the mean in an individual.

Click to read more...

 

[Bear of Bad News]

#2 is closer to what I do (and also what happens with Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA). I describe a bit more here:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=80672259

Of course, one of the biggest challenges is that the most interesting projections are for players who have few legitimate comparables.

 

[soireeculturelle]

#2 is closer to what I do (and also what happens with Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA). I describe a bit more here:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=80672259

Of course, one of the biggest challenges is that the most interesting projections are for players who have few legitimate comparables.

the player in question here is Lars Eller. ranked 122nd out of 157 (forwards who have played 200+ NHL games by age 24) in PPG. The only cases that Ive uncovered so far which suggests he could put up 69 points next yr, going back to 2000, are Plekanec and Kesler, who both had higher PPGs from 19-24 but played more on the powerplay than Eller did up to now and had point-per-game players on their wings for their age25 seasons. Obviously the odds are very very slim that Eller will wind up with an age25 season like theirs, as far as I can see at least.

My buddy seems more irritated to hear me talk though my methodology, than just hearing someone telling him he probably through his money away.