Probabilities

[Fourier]

Pretty much what I was going for.



Ok, lets say the balls represent a new lottery system the NHL has implemented for the 2020 draft. Whoever has the ball that lands in the first slot gets the #1 OA pick in the draft, the other team will get the #2 pick.
Ottawa has finished last overall but have inexplicitly traded it’s first round pick to Winnipeg earlier that season so the Jets have 2 balls in the lottery while the Oilers have one.

In order to increase the drama Bill Daly has revealed a non-winning ball from the Jets, so we are down to 1 ball for the Jets and 1 for the Oilers. Jets management looks at the situation and says to themselves "Hey this is the oilers, of course their ball is going to win, we should offer a straight up trade", our ball for their ball.

The question is should the Oilers trade their ball for the Jets remaining ball?

As an Oiler fan I'd take that trade!!!

 

[Doctor No]

To answer lomiller1's question, we need to know if the draft is actually rigged in the Oilers' favor or not.

 

[Fourier]

To answer lomiller1's question, we need to know if the draft is actually rigged in the Oilers' favor or not.

Hey...Be nice!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Fourier]

Pretty much what I was going for.



Ok, lets say the balls represent a new lottery system the NHL has implemented for the 2020 draft. Whoever has the ball that lands in the first slot gets the #1 OA pick in the draft, the other team will get the #2 pick.
Ottawa has finished last overall but have inexplicitly traded it’s first round pick to Winnipeg earlier that season so the Jets have 2 balls in the lottery while the Oilers have one.

In order to increase the drama Bill Daly has revealed a non-winning ball from the Jets, so we are down to 1 ball for the Jets and 1 for the Oilers. Jets management looks at the situation and says to themselves "Hey this is the oilers, of course their ball is going to win, we should offer a straight up trade", our ball for their ball.

The question is should the Oilers trade their ball for the Jets remaining ball?

Make it a little more interesting. The Oilers and Jets make some trades and end up with the Oilers having two balls and the Jets have three. After the draw happens and the picks beyond 5 are revealed the Oilers and Jets are known to have all of the top five picks. Daly wants to tease the audience so he reveals that the Jets are in slots 3 and 5. Now this is a lottery with the next Gretzky on the line and 2-5 are ho-hum. So the only thing that matters is the first pick and every team would trade 2 and 4 for one. The Oilers are left with two balls and the Jets one. Would you trade the Oilers two picks for the Jets one remaining pick??

 

[lomiller1]

As an Oiler fan I'd take that trade!!!

As a Jets fan I’m pretty sure my team would make that trade

Make it a little more interesting. The Oilers and Jets make some trades and end up with the Oilers having two balls and the Jets have three. After the draw happens and the picks beyond 5 are revealed the Oilers and Jets are known to have all of the top five picks. Daly wants to tease the audience so he reveals that the Jets are in slots 3 and 5. Now this is a lottery with the next Gretzky on the line and 2-5 are ho-hum. So the only thing that matters is the first pick and every team would trade 2 and 4 for one. The Oilers are left with two balls and the Jets one. Would you trade the Oilers two picks for the Jets one remaining pick??

I’m an engineer not a statistician so just out of curiosity are we getting it Baysian type questions? Anyway I’ll give it a shot.

If Daly was just turning over spots without consideration to which team would be revealed, and an Oiler ball could have come up but did not then the Oilers 2 balls have a 2/3 chance while the Jets have a 1/3 chance.

Assuming Daly is specifically eliminating non-winning balls he will be able to reveal up to 2 of the Jet Balls and 1 Oiler ball without giving away the winner. Since he can always do this regardless of how the balls fall him doing so chances nothing in the original probabilities. Originally the Jets had a 60% chance of getting the #1 pick and the Oilers had a 40% chance so now the Jets 1 ball is 60% likely to be the #1 pick while the Oilers 2 balls have a cumulative 40% chance. Normally this means you’d want to have the Jets 1 ball, but it’s the Oilers, we all know they have the winner.

 

[Fourier]

As a Jets fan I’m pretty sure my team would make that trade


I’m an engineer not a statistician so just out of curiosity are we getting it Baysian type questions? Anyway I’ll give it a shot.

If Daly was just turning over spots without consideration to which team would be revealed, and an Oiler ball could have come up but did not then the Oilers 2 balls have a 2/3 chance while the Jets have a 1/3 chance.

Assuming Daly is specifically eliminating non-winning balls he will be able to reveal up to 2 of the Jet Balls and 1 Oiler ball without giving away the winner. Since he can always do this regardless of how the balls fall him doing so chances nothing in the original probabilities. Originally the Jets had a 60% chance of getting the #1 pick and the Oilers had a 40% chance so now the Jets 1 ball is 60% likely to be the #1 pick while the Oilers 2 balls have a cumulative 40% chance. Normally this means you’d want to have the Jets 1 ball, but it’s the Oilers, we all know they have the winner.

Bingo!

This formulation of the Monty Hall problem is a bit more extreme. In the original case the perceived odds are 50-50 so people may make the switch on a whim. It would actually take some real though to give up two shots at the prize for only one.