Brock
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OHL Prospects: Preseason Top 30 for the 2021 NHL Draft
Well it's pretty obvious that scouting the 2021 draft crop is going to be different. No Hlinka/Gretzky Cup, or training camp for that matter. That camp always gives you a great idea of the improvements that draft eligible players have made over the summer. Additionally, we have a late start to the season, coming in February. And that's if everything goes according to plan and the pandemic "cooperates." As difficult as this list was to make this year, I think it's still a great exercise. I only started doing a preseason list a few years ago, but I enjoy it because it gives you a great perspective on where players have come from (for fun, here's the 2020 preseason list).
Never mind the pandemic, in any year this is a tough list to make (as mentioned). The progression for draft eligible players can often be a tad unpredictable. The player you see in a sophomore season isn't often the same player you see in a freshman year. Growth spurts occur. Strength is added. Confidence grows. Timid perimeter players can become physical beasts, etc. Or, conversely, you've got players who look great as 16/17 year olds but just don't progress in their sophomore seasons. Plus, you've got all the players who haven't yet played in the OHL (at least more than a few games), but who are projected to be impact players in their draft year (like Logan Mailloux, Brenden Sirizzotti, Artyom Grushnikov, Colby Saganiuk, Alec Geci, etc).
The strength of this year's crop for the OHL remains to be seen right now. We have a contender for first overall in Brandt Clarke. I would be shocked if he is not a top 5 selection when all is said and done. We have a strong group of forwards that look like candidates for the first round. And we also have what looks like it could be the best crop of OHL goaltenders in several years (Gaudreau, Lennox, Vrbetic, Cajan, Drobac, and any other first year goalie who wants to step up). I am also really curious to see how many Import players and '03's and '02's (who didn't play much last year) find their way into the rankings because it looks like a very strong group on paper. Bring on the 2021 scouting season!
Here's my early list:
1. Brandt Clarke - Defense - Barrie Colts
About as complete a 16 year old defender that I've seen come through the OHL. Defensively, he was the most composed, mature, and effective rookie blueliner since Aaron Ekblad. I mean, that should come as no surprise considering Clarke came from a Don Mills MM team that played with more structure than some OHL teams. However, it's still impressive. If you recall, I posted some advanced stats in my (relatively) recent Top 25 prospects release (here). Clarke's defensive metrics, such as his 9.17 takeaways per game, were right up near the top of the class already. Offensively, his confidence really soared in the second half after the coaching change to Todd Miller. In the 22 games under Miller, Clarke had 21 points. We saw him get more powerplay responsibility. We saw his confidence blossom in leading the attack, taking more chances to create. This is a 6'1 (and possibly still growing), right shot defender who tracks as a possible number one, all situations, franchise defender. He has mobility. He can play physical. I mean, there aren't many, if any faults to his game. Needless to say, it looks like he'll get drafted higher than his brother Graeme (of the 67's and New Jersey Devils). Brandt has a very real chance of pushing for first overall and I would be shocked if he's not a top five pick in 2021.
2. Mason McTavish - Left Wing/Center - Peterborough Petes
There's a lot to like about McTavish's game from an offensive standpoint and that's why he's ranked second on this list. He is a very talented goal scorer. The release on his wrist shot is superb and he has the type of shot and aggressiveness that makes him a threat from anywhere on the ice. I also really like how he attacks the middle and plays net front. These are the types of goals that are easily translatable. McTavish is also highly skilled with the puck and has that ability to create his own scoring chances. He is so much more than just a triggerman. Coming out of MM, McTavish was billed as a physically aggressive player and someone who could drive time of possession down low, but we didn't see that as much in his first OHL season. It will definitely be something to watch for in his sophomore season as he gets stronger. Ultimately, how high McTavish goes will depend on his ability to round out his game and find consistency. He hit a major wall in the second half of his rookie season, but that's not uncommon for first year players. I'm particularly interested to see how his ability to facilitate and his patience with the puck matures this year. If he takes the necessary steps forward, there's no reason to suggest that he can't be a top 10 selection.
3. Francesco Pinelli - Center/Left Wing - Kitchener Rangers
A personal favourite of mine dating back to his MM days, I'm not sure we got the best of Pinelli last year, or a true indication of the type of dominating force that he can be. With a game built around his aggressiveness, on and off the puck, I don't think he was strong enough to truly showcase his talent. We got bits and pieces of a larger puzzle, but I think he's in for a monster draft year. At his best, Pinelli is a driving force in transition because of his skating ability and assertiveness in driving through defenders, rather than around them. He may not be huge (5'11), but he plays the game hard. His shot is also a big weapon, IMO, particularly his ability to shoot while in full stride. Again, I'm not sure that's something we saw a ton of in his first year. I just see Pinelli as this potentially dominant two-way force down the middle who can be a future star at the NHL level. With some graduations in Kitchener, he's likely to get all the ice time and responsibility he can handle and I am very excited to see what he does with it.
4. Daniil Chayka - Defense - Guelph Storm
A late 2002 born defender, Chayka had a really nice breakout season for the Storm in 2019/20, where he established himself as a top 3 OHL defender on a team that surprised many with their strong play in the face of numerous graduations. Chayka has a lot going for him. He's big (6'3). He's mobile. He can quarterback a powerplay or anchor a penalty kill. He is a possible all situations type of pro at the next level. I think he shows a lot of composure when holding the offensive blueline and does his best work when he's controlling the point. His instincts as a goal scorer are excellent and he does a great job identifying opportunities for him to jump up into the slot to use his big shot. Next season, there are a couple things that I'll be looking for. The first is, can he be more effective leading the rush and help to create in transition? The second is, can he learn to use his size more to his advantage in the defensive end to play a little more aggressively and to take away space? If the answer to both of those is yes, he's a potential lottery selection. If not, he may see his ranking slide a bit as scouts question his upside as a pro. I've been told that he was excellent for the Russian U20 team in a preseason event this summer, so that bodes well. He's also currently getting reps in, in Russia as he awaits the start of the OHL season.
5. Brennan Othmann - Left Wing - Flint Firebirds
Honestly, I wanted to put Othmann higher on this list. I really like his game. I think it is easy to see his game translating well to the NHL; he's composed and mature on the ice beyond a typical 16 year old forward. Two things really stand out about him. The first is his shot. He can rifle the puck, possessing both a great wrist shot and one timer when positioned near the dot. The potential for him to develop into a high end goal scorer is high. The second is his understanding of how to play without the puck in all three zones. His defensive awareness is terrific and his effectiveness as a defensive player will only improve as he gets stronger. Bottom line, Othmann is just a very efficient and intelligent support winger. The big thing that I'll be looking for this coming season is improvements in his skating, both in his power/start ups and his top gear. If he can really upgrade that area, he'll be weapon as the F1 on the forecheck and an even more dangerous goal scorer.
6. Brett Harrison - Center/Left Wing - Oshawa Generals
Harrison did a great job for the Generals in his first OHL season. I think his skating was definitely better than it was advertised to be (one of the reasons he fell to Oshawa at 16th). He plays with such power and conviction through the middle and has a lot of success driving the net or playing near the crease despite his age and his physical immaturity. His hands are quite good and he proved to be an excellent net front presence on the powerplay for a talented Generals team. I think that because of his strength on the puck, size, and hands, he could develop into a very solid and dependable player down low who can really drive time of possession. Like any young player, I found that his decision making with the puck, in particular the quickness of his decisions and precision of his passes, was very inconsistent. If he's going to be that "power center," we're going to want to see him increase his pace of play to be the guy leading the charge over the blueline, making those quick decisions to get the puck to his wingers. The Generals hope to be one of the best teams in the OHL this year and they are hoping Harrison can have a big year.
7. Ben Gaudreau - Goaltender - Sarnia Sting
I am always a little uneasy ranking goaltenders this high in preseason rankings because their development is so unpredictable. However, Gaudreau has been hyped for a few years now as one of the top young goalies to come through Ontario in recent years. His play at the U17's not withstanding, he was about as good as you could have expected him to be last year with Sarnia. He had some stinkers, and playing behind that Sarnia defense could not have been easy. However, he also had some amazing performances where he absolutely stole games for the Sting. His tracking ability is just phenomenal and as such, so is his positioning. Given his size and how well he sees the ice, he truly can be a wall at times. He's just one of those kids who makes the hard saves look easy. That sort of composure is really attractive to NHL scouts, perhaps more so than the goalie who relies on just his athleticism to keep him in plays.
8. Ryan Winterton - Center - Hamilton Bulldogs
An aggressive ranking for Winterton here as I haven't really seen him this high on other early lists. But I think he is going to really rocket up draft lists this year with a strong season. At times last year with the Bulldogs, he looked like a real force out there. When asked to play up in the lineup, he elevated his game. And when asked to play lower, he was still effective as a two-way center. As an early September birthday, he is going to be one of the youngest players in this draft class and as such, I believe that there is a ton of untapped potential here. I see speed and power. I see high end skill with the puck and the ability to be creative to facilitate for teammates. I see a high end IQ in all three zones. I really hope that Hamilton gives him an increased role next year so that he can showcase possible improvement.
9. Chase Stillman - Right Wing - Sudbury Wolves
The son of coach (and former NHL'er) Cory Stillman, Chase had a terrific rookie season in Sudbury. I really like how he pushes the pace of play in transition and is already effective at gaining the offensive zone. He handles the puck well at full speed and is certainly not lacking in confidence when the puck is on his stick. I also really like his intensity level without the puck in the offensive zone. Like his brother Riley, I see him developing into a very physical player and a guy who could be a real pain in the ass to play against. Ultimately, I want to see how he handles an increased role this coming season with the Wolves to get a better gauge of his overall scoring potential and NHL upside.
10. Wyatt Johnston - Center - Windsor Spitfires
Much like the rest of his teammates in Windsor, it was an up and down first year for the former 6th overall selection. Johnston is a lot like Hamilton's Ryan Winterton in the sense that he's a strong two-way player already and has a high IQ as a playmaker. I've got Winterton a little higher right now because from what I've seen, I think his skating ability and puck skill/creativity are a little more advanced than Johnston. But a lot can change in an offseason (especially one as long as this one). Competition for ice time will be high in Windsor next year due to so many forwards returning. But I'm betting we see him rise to the top.
11. Connor Lockhart - Erie Otters
12. Tristan Lennox - Saginaw Spirit
13. Joe Vrbetic - North Bay Battalion
14. Ethan Del Mastro - Mississauga Steelheads
15. Avery Hayes - Hamilton Bulldogs
16. Isaac Enright - Niagara IceDogs
17. Jack Beck - Ottawa 67's
18. Josh Bloom - Saginaw Spirit
19. Deni Goure - Owen Sound Attack
20. Stuart Rolofs - London Knights
21. Paul Christopoulos - North Bay Battalion
22. Jack Matier - Ottawa 67's
23. Jacob Holmes - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
24. Braeden Kressler - Flint Firebirds
25. Ty Voit - Sarnia Sting
26. Ethan Bourroughs - Owen Sound Attack
27. Francesco Arcuri - Kingston Frontenacs
28. Connor Punnett - Barrie Colts
29. Maddox Callens - Kingston Frontenacs
30. Braden Hache - Kingston Frontenacs
Check the link for the full write ups and HM's.
Happy to answer any questions or respond to comments.
Well it's pretty obvious that scouting the 2021 draft crop is going to be different. No Hlinka/Gretzky Cup, or training camp for that matter. That camp always gives you a great idea of the improvements that draft eligible players have made over the summer. Additionally, we have a late start to the season, coming in February. And that's if everything goes according to plan and the pandemic "cooperates." As difficult as this list was to make this year, I think it's still a great exercise. I only started doing a preseason list a few years ago, but I enjoy it because it gives you a great perspective on where players have come from (for fun, here's the 2020 preseason list).
Never mind the pandemic, in any year this is a tough list to make (as mentioned). The progression for draft eligible players can often be a tad unpredictable. The player you see in a sophomore season isn't often the same player you see in a freshman year. Growth spurts occur. Strength is added. Confidence grows. Timid perimeter players can become physical beasts, etc. Or, conversely, you've got players who look great as 16/17 year olds but just don't progress in their sophomore seasons. Plus, you've got all the players who haven't yet played in the OHL (at least more than a few games), but who are projected to be impact players in their draft year (like Logan Mailloux, Brenden Sirizzotti, Artyom Grushnikov, Colby Saganiuk, Alec Geci, etc).
The strength of this year's crop for the OHL remains to be seen right now. We have a contender for first overall in Brandt Clarke. I would be shocked if he is not a top 5 selection when all is said and done. We have a strong group of forwards that look like candidates for the first round. And we also have what looks like it could be the best crop of OHL goaltenders in several years (Gaudreau, Lennox, Vrbetic, Cajan, Drobac, and any other first year goalie who wants to step up). I am also really curious to see how many Import players and '03's and '02's (who didn't play much last year) find their way into the rankings because it looks like a very strong group on paper. Bring on the 2021 scouting season!
Here's my early list:
1. Brandt Clarke - Defense - Barrie Colts
About as complete a 16 year old defender that I've seen come through the OHL. Defensively, he was the most composed, mature, and effective rookie blueliner since Aaron Ekblad. I mean, that should come as no surprise considering Clarke came from a Don Mills MM team that played with more structure than some OHL teams. However, it's still impressive. If you recall, I posted some advanced stats in my (relatively) recent Top 25 prospects release (here). Clarke's defensive metrics, such as his 9.17 takeaways per game, were right up near the top of the class already. Offensively, his confidence really soared in the second half after the coaching change to Todd Miller. In the 22 games under Miller, Clarke had 21 points. We saw him get more powerplay responsibility. We saw his confidence blossom in leading the attack, taking more chances to create. This is a 6'1 (and possibly still growing), right shot defender who tracks as a possible number one, all situations, franchise defender. He has mobility. He can play physical. I mean, there aren't many, if any faults to his game. Needless to say, it looks like he'll get drafted higher than his brother Graeme (of the 67's and New Jersey Devils). Brandt has a very real chance of pushing for first overall and I would be shocked if he's not a top five pick in 2021.
2. Mason McTavish - Left Wing/Center - Peterborough Petes
There's a lot to like about McTavish's game from an offensive standpoint and that's why he's ranked second on this list. He is a very talented goal scorer. The release on his wrist shot is superb and he has the type of shot and aggressiveness that makes him a threat from anywhere on the ice. I also really like how he attacks the middle and plays net front. These are the types of goals that are easily translatable. McTavish is also highly skilled with the puck and has that ability to create his own scoring chances. He is so much more than just a triggerman. Coming out of MM, McTavish was billed as a physically aggressive player and someone who could drive time of possession down low, but we didn't see that as much in his first OHL season. It will definitely be something to watch for in his sophomore season as he gets stronger. Ultimately, how high McTavish goes will depend on his ability to round out his game and find consistency. He hit a major wall in the second half of his rookie season, but that's not uncommon for first year players. I'm particularly interested to see how his ability to facilitate and his patience with the puck matures this year. If he takes the necessary steps forward, there's no reason to suggest that he can't be a top 10 selection.
3. Francesco Pinelli - Center/Left Wing - Kitchener Rangers
A personal favourite of mine dating back to his MM days, I'm not sure we got the best of Pinelli last year, or a true indication of the type of dominating force that he can be. With a game built around his aggressiveness, on and off the puck, I don't think he was strong enough to truly showcase his talent. We got bits and pieces of a larger puzzle, but I think he's in for a monster draft year. At his best, Pinelli is a driving force in transition because of his skating ability and assertiveness in driving through defenders, rather than around them. He may not be huge (5'11), but he plays the game hard. His shot is also a big weapon, IMO, particularly his ability to shoot while in full stride. Again, I'm not sure that's something we saw a ton of in his first year. I just see Pinelli as this potentially dominant two-way force down the middle who can be a future star at the NHL level. With some graduations in Kitchener, he's likely to get all the ice time and responsibility he can handle and I am very excited to see what he does with it.
4. Daniil Chayka - Defense - Guelph Storm
A late 2002 born defender, Chayka had a really nice breakout season for the Storm in 2019/20, where he established himself as a top 3 OHL defender on a team that surprised many with their strong play in the face of numerous graduations. Chayka has a lot going for him. He's big (6'3). He's mobile. He can quarterback a powerplay or anchor a penalty kill. He is a possible all situations type of pro at the next level. I think he shows a lot of composure when holding the offensive blueline and does his best work when he's controlling the point. His instincts as a goal scorer are excellent and he does a great job identifying opportunities for him to jump up into the slot to use his big shot. Next season, there are a couple things that I'll be looking for. The first is, can he be more effective leading the rush and help to create in transition? The second is, can he learn to use his size more to his advantage in the defensive end to play a little more aggressively and to take away space? If the answer to both of those is yes, he's a potential lottery selection. If not, he may see his ranking slide a bit as scouts question his upside as a pro. I've been told that he was excellent for the Russian U20 team in a preseason event this summer, so that bodes well. He's also currently getting reps in, in Russia as he awaits the start of the OHL season.
5. Brennan Othmann - Left Wing - Flint Firebirds
Honestly, I wanted to put Othmann higher on this list. I really like his game. I think it is easy to see his game translating well to the NHL; he's composed and mature on the ice beyond a typical 16 year old forward. Two things really stand out about him. The first is his shot. He can rifle the puck, possessing both a great wrist shot and one timer when positioned near the dot. The potential for him to develop into a high end goal scorer is high. The second is his understanding of how to play without the puck in all three zones. His defensive awareness is terrific and his effectiveness as a defensive player will only improve as he gets stronger. Bottom line, Othmann is just a very efficient and intelligent support winger. The big thing that I'll be looking for this coming season is improvements in his skating, both in his power/start ups and his top gear. If he can really upgrade that area, he'll be weapon as the F1 on the forecheck and an even more dangerous goal scorer.
6. Brett Harrison - Center/Left Wing - Oshawa Generals
Harrison did a great job for the Generals in his first OHL season. I think his skating was definitely better than it was advertised to be (one of the reasons he fell to Oshawa at 16th). He plays with such power and conviction through the middle and has a lot of success driving the net or playing near the crease despite his age and his physical immaturity. His hands are quite good and he proved to be an excellent net front presence on the powerplay for a talented Generals team. I think that because of his strength on the puck, size, and hands, he could develop into a very solid and dependable player down low who can really drive time of possession. Like any young player, I found that his decision making with the puck, in particular the quickness of his decisions and precision of his passes, was very inconsistent. If he's going to be that "power center," we're going to want to see him increase his pace of play to be the guy leading the charge over the blueline, making those quick decisions to get the puck to his wingers. The Generals hope to be one of the best teams in the OHL this year and they are hoping Harrison can have a big year.
7. Ben Gaudreau - Goaltender - Sarnia Sting
I am always a little uneasy ranking goaltenders this high in preseason rankings because their development is so unpredictable. However, Gaudreau has been hyped for a few years now as one of the top young goalies to come through Ontario in recent years. His play at the U17's not withstanding, he was about as good as you could have expected him to be last year with Sarnia. He had some stinkers, and playing behind that Sarnia defense could not have been easy. However, he also had some amazing performances where he absolutely stole games for the Sting. His tracking ability is just phenomenal and as such, so is his positioning. Given his size and how well he sees the ice, he truly can be a wall at times. He's just one of those kids who makes the hard saves look easy. That sort of composure is really attractive to NHL scouts, perhaps more so than the goalie who relies on just his athleticism to keep him in plays.
8. Ryan Winterton - Center - Hamilton Bulldogs
An aggressive ranking for Winterton here as I haven't really seen him this high on other early lists. But I think he is going to really rocket up draft lists this year with a strong season. At times last year with the Bulldogs, he looked like a real force out there. When asked to play up in the lineup, he elevated his game. And when asked to play lower, he was still effective as a two-way center. As an early September birthday, he is going to be one of the youngest players in this draft class and as such, I believe that there is a ton of untapped potential here. I see speed and power. I see high end skill with the puck and the ability to be creative to facilitate for teammates. I see a high end IQ in all three zones. I really hope that Hamilton gives him an increased role next year so that he can showcase possible improvement.
9. Chase Stillman - Right Wing - Sudbury Wolves
The son of coach (and former NHL'er) Cory Stillman, Chase had a terrific rookie season in Sudbury. I really like how he pushes the pace of play in transition and is already effective at gaining the offensive zone. He handles the puck well at full speed and is certainly not lacking in confidence when the puck is on his stick. I also really like his intensity level without the puck in the offensive zone. Like his brother Riley, I see him developing into a very physical player and a guy who could be a real pain in the ass to play against. Ultimately, I want to see how he handles an increased role this coming season with the Wolves to get a better gauge of his overall scoring potential and NHL upside.
10. Wyatt Johnston - Center - Windsor Spitfires
Much like the rest of his teammates in Windsor, it was an up and down first year for the former 6th overall selection. Johnston is a lot like Hamilton's Ryan Winterton in the sense that he's a strong two-way player already and has a high IQ as a playmaker. I've got Winterton a little higher right now because from what I've seen, I think his skating ability and puck skill/creativity are a little more advanced than Johnston. But a lot can change in an offseason (especially one as long as this one). Competition for ice time will be high in Windsor next year due to so many forwards returning. But I'm betting we see him rise to the top.
11. Connor Lockhart - Erie Otters
12. Tristan Lennox - Saginaw Spirit
13. Joe Vrbetic - North Bay Battalion
14. Ethan Del Mastro - Mississauga Steelheads
15. Avery Hayes - Hamilton Bulldogs
16. Isaac Enright - Niagara IceDogs
17. Jack Beck - Ottawa 67's
18. Josh Bloom - Saginaw Spirit
19. Deni Goure - Owen Sound Attack
20. Stuart Rolofs - London Knights
21. Paul Christopoulos - North Bay Battalion
22. Jack Matier - Ottawa 67's
23. Jacob Holmes - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
24. Braeden Kressler - Flint Firebirds
25. Ty Voit - Sarnia Sting
26. Ethan Bourroughs - Owen Sound Attack
27. Francesco Arcuri - Kingston Frontenacs
28. Connor Punnett - Barrie Colts
29. Maddox Callens - Kingston Frontenacs
30. Braden Hache - Kingston Frontenacs
Check the link for the full write ups and HM's.
Happy to answer any questions or respond to comments.
