Predicting a CHL player's future

[Shrimper]

I seem to recall there being a website or a formula that let you calculate what prediction would come from a junior players NHL career. I.e How they are estimated to pan out using statistics. Does anyone remember this?

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[Hagged]

I seem to recall there being a website or a formula that let you calculate what prediction would come from a junior players NHL career. I.e How they are estimated to pan out using statistics. Does anyone remember this?

I don't think you mean this but there are a considerable amount of data crunched to get the league equivalency numbers. The biggest error comes from age, but there is some comparison of different aged juniors also in that piece.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

It might be useful to interpolate down to a month between these numbers. Extrapolating isn't an option so you will have to rely on 17 and 18 year old production in the Juniors. It gives the peak production (with a huge uncertainty, but gives a number).

In the aggregate, players reach their peak performance level at age 22 and hold it for several years. What’s most significant about this chart is what it implies about the age at which a junior player posts a particular PPG. A 17-year-old player with 2 PPG in Junior can expect, on average, to score 1.5 PPG in the NHL at age 22, while an 18-year-old Junior doing the same thing has an NHL projection of 1.0 PPG, which is 40 fewer points over the course of a season. This is the difference between elite players (Joe Sakic, Denis Savard, Dale Hawerchuk) and much lesser players (Jimmy Carson, Terry Yake, Mike Bullard.)



This is very significant for the NHL Entry Draft. An entire year’s worth of players become eligible for the draft, but the players born earlier in the year have a peak value 35% lower than players born late in the year. This is obvious when you consider the difference that one year of physical maturity can make at age 17. In evaluating a player, it is critical to keep in mind his exact age, down to his month of birth.

 

[Shrimper]

That is exactly the thing I was looking for! Thank you!

 

[Ted Hoffman]

It's a little difficult because all of the necessary stats may not be available (hockeydb has GP, G-A-PTS and maybe PIM and +/-, and that's it - and you're hoping all of that info is accurate) and certainly things like the clutch-and-grab and the increase in the size of goalie equipment were factors, but I wonder if we could have seen some of the drop in scoring post-1995 coming from how players were(n't) putting up numbers in the CHL starting around 1991-92 or so.