Speculation: Predict the Oilers Regular Season Record

[Delicious Pancakes]

@5 Mins 4 Ftg started the predictions today, so let's keep things polling: Predict the Oilers record for the coming 2021-22 season. I've seen prognostications in the 101-105 point range for the Oilers. How many points do you think the Oilers finish with? Are you a pessimist or an optimist? What am I?....

I'm going to go with 52-25-5 for 109 points. Why? Because it's a fun numerical record and (interesting fact) no NHL team has ever gone 52-25-5 in a season. Usually teams have more OTLs, but since the Oilers were so averse to OT last year I think they can do it.

Or...does it not matter as long as they make the playoffs, and let's wait and see what they do in the playoffs...yada yada yada...

Or do you think they crash and burn because of the defence and goaltending and you'll have given up on them by Christmas?....

....Only to be pulled right back in by the trade deadline

Also as an FYI before you vote in the poll, since 2013-14 only 6 teams have finished the season with more than 115 points. Also, since then the two teams to qualify for the playoffs with the least number of points (in a full 82 game season) were Minnesota with 87 points in 2015-16, and Colorado with 90 points in 2018-19.

Anyways, here's hoping for a great season!

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[DingerMcSlapshot]

40-32-8

 

[nexttothemoon]

About a +44 goals differential which should put them in that range of 105-110 pts... I'll go with the 107-109 range in the poll.

 

[CornKicker]

i went with 107-109 because i think they will smash teh pacific teams and eat most of the other teams they play as well. they will win 2x as many games as they lose which should put them close to this range barring a significant injury to nurse, 97 or 29

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

49-30-3

 

[brentashton]

No deep analysis of the schedule, game by game, but I foresee a 46-25-11 record, for 103 points. I see lots of close games, that we win a fair share of in OT/SO but also lose a number of too in extra time.

 

[Anarchism]

Think the first half will be a series of up and downs as a three or four players improve within the system and the second half will see some of these gel. Tippett will learn a few things as well. The last 15 games should be a very positive run.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

lol voted the wrong direction, I think they'll crest 100pts

 

[bone]

Over the past ten seasons, 101-103 points is averages to around top 4-7 in the NHL, right in the range Edmonton's been on average since January 2020. Those looking at 107 and up typically aligns with a top 3 team in the NHL and often a Conference winner. There's still too many questions around this team to think they are top 3.

 

[bone]

i went with 107-109 because i think they will smash teh pacific teams and eat most of the other teams they play as well. they will win 2x as many games as they lose which should put them close to this range barring a significant injury to nurse, 97 or 29

While having the butter soft California teams in Division is viewed as a benefit, Edmonton gets a grand total of 5 extra games vs. the non-Pacific teams than any other team in the West. Divisional alignments in normal seasons now that we have 32 teams don't feature all that many intra-division games. In fact, they have the same amount of games vs. Seattle and Anaheim as any other Central team, so the extra games are vs. San Jose, LA, Vegas, Vancouver and Calgary.

 

[CornKicker]

While having the butter soft California teams in Division is viewed as a benefit, Edmonton gets a grand total of 5 extra games vs. the non-Pacific teams than any other team in the West. Divisional alignments in normal seasons now that we have 32 teams don't feature all that many intra-division games. In fact, they have the same amount of games vs. Seattle and Anaheim as any other Central team, so the extra games are vs. San Jose, LA, Vegas, Vancouver and Calgary.

i thought they played home and away vs each team then the rest were in division? i didnt know that changed. I mean playing jersey, clb, ottawa buffalo etc a few more times isnt awful lol

 

[yukoner88]

47-28-7

101 pts

 

[bone]

i thought they played home and away vs each team then the rest were in division? i didnt know that changed. I mean playing jersey, clb, ottawa buffalo etc a few more times isnt awful lol

Nothing's changed, but adding a new team reduces the number of available games vs your own division.

16 Eastern Teams = 32 games
8 Central Teams = 24 games
56 games

There's only 26 available games left for the 7 teams in your division, meaning you play two teams only 3 times, and the other 5 4 times.

In very real terms, there isn't really any major advantage to be in any specific division anymore as basically 62 games for every team is common with everyone having a home and home against every team, with 8 extra games vs the other teams in your conference, but different division and 12 extra games in your division. 20 games isn't a lot of ground to make a huge difference especially as those 20 games are split amongst 15 teams of varying skill levels as for every extra game against a bad team you might have a game against a good team or a team you just don't match up well against.

For comparison sakes last normal season it was.

16 Eastern Teams = 32 games
7 Central Teams = 21 games
53 games

So there was 29 games available to split against the 7 divisional teams. Or for the Central the 26 games in the new example were only split amongst 6 teams instead of 7. Eastern teams had a perfect 28 games to split amongst their 7 divisional foes. So in all cases you played divisional foes at least 4 times sometimes 5. That's no longer the case.

That's why I'd like to change it to either 2 games vs. Central instead of 3 leaving 34 games for the 7 divisional foes since we are still using the Divisional playoff format. Or there is tidier math scenarios if you go to 8 Divisions.

 

[GreeningOil]

51-26-5 for 107 pts

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Nothing's changed, but adding a new team reduces the number of available games vs your own division.

16 Eastern Teams = 32 games
8 Central Teams = 24 games
56 games

There's only 26 available games left for the 7 teams in your division, meaning you play two teams only 3 times, and the other 5 4 times.

In very real terms, there isn't really any major advantage to be in any specific division anymore as basically 62 games for every team is common with everyone having a home and home against every team, with 8 extra games vs the other teams in your conference, but different division and 12 extra games in your division. 20 games isn't a lot of ground to make a huge difference especially as those 20 games are split amongst 15 teams of varying skill levels as for every extra game against a bad team you might have a game against a good team or a team you just don't match up well against.

For comparison sakes last normal season it was.

16 Eastern Teams = 32 games
7 Central Teams = 21 games
53 games

So there was 29 games available to split against the 7 divisional teams. Or for the Central the 26 games in the new example were only split amongst 6 teams instead of 7. Eastern teams had a perfect 28 games to split amongst their 7 divisional foes. So in all cases you played divisional foes at least 4 times sometimes 5. That's no longer the case.

That's why I'd like to change it to either 2 games vs. Central instead of 3 leaving 34 games for the 7 divisional foes since we are still using the Divisional playoff format. Or there is tidier math scenarios if you go to 8 Divisions.

Yeah this year they play 4 games against Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Vegas, and only 3 games against Anaheim and Seattle. I think that probably equates to 2 extra points in the standings as compared to if they were in the Central Division. The real benefit is more that they're in the Western Conference which overall is weaker than the Eastern Conference currently, so there are less top teams that they have to play 3 or 4 times, and more lesser/borderline playoff teams in the West that they do get to play 3 times or more.

Vegas and Colorado are the only top teams in the West the Oilers have to contend with. Compare that to the Leafs who have to contend with top teams like Tampa, Florida, Carolina, the NY Islanders, as well as more second tier teams with Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, and the NY Rangers. The only teams in that tier from the West are Minnesota and maybe Winnipeg. There will probably be a couple teams in the Eastern Conference who would be good enough to qualify for the playoffs in the West this year, but instead end up missing the playoffs due to being in the East.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Very good pole.

107-109. We feast on our divisional rivals this season.

 

[bone]

Yeah this year they play 4 games against Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Vegas, and only 3 games against Anaheim and Seattle. I think that probably equates to 2 extra points in the standings as compared to if they were in the Central Division. The real benefit is more that they're in the Western Conference which overall is weaker than the Eastern Conference currently, so there are less top teams that they have to play 3 or 4 times, and more lesser/borderline playoff teams in the West that they do get to play 3 times or more.

Vegas and Colorado are the only top teams in the West the Oilers have to contend with. Compare that to the Leafs who have to contend with top teams like Tampa, Florida, Carolina, the NY Islanders, as well as more second tier teams with Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, and the NY Rangers. The only teams in that tier from the West are Minnesota and maybe Winnipeg. There will probably be a couple teams in the Eastern Conference who would be good enough to qualify for the playoffs in the West this year, but instead end up missing the playoffs due to being in the East.

Yup. The middle tier in the East is definitely better/deeper than the middle tier in the West for sure, but since we're only competing with Western teams for playoff spots, it doesn't matter much. And as said before the schedules are 75% identical anyways, throw in randomization in that basically all teams win at least 35% or lose at least 25% (Bettman point influence) then point advantages based on division and conference really don't amount to much. As you say a couple points here or there, not much more than that.

What may be the most interesting to see this year though is which Conference's bottom tier will be worse. Buffalo is going to be terrible, probably Columbus as well. I don't think Detroit is done with the lottery yet either, and it remains to be seen how Ottawa does once they start playing in a tougher schedule again. Has New Jersey finally emerged... I'm not convinced and was last year a slump or sign of things to come for Philly. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a Montreal face plant.

In the West, Chicago should be back in contention for at least playoffs, LA should be emerging while still not being great, Vancouver won't be as bad as last year, Nashville should plumet, but they always seem to surprise people. Arizona should plummet but sometimes those blown up teams surprise, Anaheim should still suck with Eakins and SJ probably not much better. Seattle... who knows.

 

[CycloneSweep]

40-30-12
92 points

3rd in the conference