Potential Atlanta NHL Expansion Team Thread

[RoyalAir]

This development would be Forsyth throwing their hat in the ring to battle the other burbs as a destination. Right now, they’ve got nothing. Hopefully many will see that as an opportunity. At the same time, since it is farther out, you’ll have folks that want Forsyth to stay “the country” and don’t want growth or traffic (you see that often in the Facebook comments). We’ll have to see how large and loud that second group is. With or without this development, they’re fighting a losing battle. Atlanta is expanding whether they like it or not.

I think you're spot on, which is why I mentioned earlier about how this could allow ForCo to thumb their nose at their big brother north Fulton (where the North Point mall site is).

I grew up about 3 miles from Krause's proposed arena site. It was country back in the mid-90s. But that bird has flown, and flown hard. It was a massive PitA to get to Philips on a weeknight, but this would have been an incredible location based on where a ton of hockey fans all lived and played.

Forsyth County could easily become the preferred destination over Cherokee County or Dawson County with a development like this. The County Comission is obviously doing their diligence, but if they think they can have a Hotspot a la The Battery, they'd be foolish to not explore it.

 

[KevFu]

Those are fair points. I’m just pointing out that those three teams have established themselves a lot more than they had when the southeast division existed. I don’t think a division featuring all of those teams with an expansion Atlanta franchise would be a problem as much as some might think, especially if they feature the teams in the New York/Philly area in their division. Those teams all have established fanbases that travel well too, while being a better fit in a geographical

Also, a city like Atlanta has rivalries in other pro sports leagues with all of those cities/areas. That doesn’t hurt ticket sales.

Also, while it may help ticket sales to have teams from up North travel to your arena to root for their team, ultimately you’re trying to attract fans in your market to come to your games, because those are the people that buy season tickets and support the team itself. Florida had to live like this for years and thankfully the team is doing much better now.

My main point is that the rivalries aren't automatic based on a map. They have to come from what occurs during games.

For new brands, it's less about people visiting the market to watch the road team, but the percentage of people in market who didn't abandon their old team for a newly created team.

Of course new teams need to work hard to build a fan base, but the fact is that it simply takes time. (And this isn't unique to the American South, it's just that most the new brands are in the American South. But Ottawa gets 24 points in year one and the Habs win the Cup; Lots of people probably just stayed loyal to the Habs).

It's not an indictment of any market, it's just pure math. You'd want to have a balance of long-tenured brands vs new brands in each division simply because the math is going to be more total ticket sales league-wide doing it that way than not.

 

[sneakytitz]

Of course new teams need to work hard to build a fan base, but the fact is that it simply takes time. (And this isn't unique to the American South, it's just that most the new brands are in the American South. But Ottawa gets 24 points in year one and the Habs win the Cup; Lots of people probably just stayed loyal to the Habs).

I've often heard that expansion teams, in any sport, need a full generation of existence to have "embedded fans". In other words, out of towners (which Atlanta is full of) are going to root for the Bruins, the Rangers, and Blackhawks just as they do when they go see the Red Sox, Yankees, or Cubs at Truist or the Celtics, Knicks, or Bulls at State Farm, so you need roughly 18 years of kids growing up alongside a team to have built-in fans with purchasing power, even if it's just tickets to a game or two a year, and then it's continuous.

But the Thrashers haven't been gone long. I was 12 their inaugural season - I'm embedded and so are many young hockey fans in/from Atlanta in 1999-2011. That didn't exist when the Thrashers arrived because it was almost 20 years after the Flames left town and I don't know if there are true parallels with the Knights.

If they go brand this team as the Thrashers, either Atlanta or Georgia, you've suddenly unlocked a tremendous amount of existing fans, young and old, for that matter. Couple that with new? Good spot to be in!

 

[edog37]

I've often heard that expansion teams, in any sport, need a full generation of existence to have "embedded fans". In other words, out of towners (which Atlanta is full of) are going to root for the Bruins, the Rangers, and Blackhawks just as they do when they go see the Red Sox, Yankees, or Cubs at Truist or the Celtics, Knicks, or Bulls at State Farm, so you need roughly 18 years of kids growing up alongside a team to have built-in fans with purchasing power, even if it's just tickets to a game or two a year, and then it's continuous.

But the Thrashers haven't been gone long. I was 12 their inaugural season - I'm embedded and so are many young hockey fans in/from Atlanta in 1999-2011. That didn't exist when the Thrashers arrived because it was almost 20 years after the Flames left town and I don't know if there are true parallels with the Knights.

If they go brand this team as the Thrashers, either Atlanta or Georgia, you've suddenly unlocked a tremendous amount of existing fans, young and old, for that matter. Couple that with new? Good spot to be in!

Winning early on will go a long way too.

 

[Headshot77]

To be fair, why wouldn't a majority of locals support a team coming in? Even if someone's not a hockey fan, there's really no reasonable rationale to be against a team opening up shop. Would the majority support still be in place once a location is established and/or any public money expectations are announced? We'll see.

For instance, a vast majority in Chicago probably support both the Bears and the Sox building new stadiums, but the devil's in the details and the number of supporters rapidly dwindles depending on location and if public money is required or not.

Because muh taxes

 

[dj4aces]

News from the town hall that was held earlier tonight.

If geoblocked, the article is here.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

 

[sneakytitz]

Sweet. Let's hope next week's vote goes well (I bet it'll be 4-1 yes given the previous votes so far). Then it sounds like it's time to build!

 

[BKIslandersFan]

News from the town hall that was held earlier tonight.

If geoblocked, the article is here.

Is this being privately financed btw? I can’t see it happening if it isn’t.

 

[sneakytitz]

Is this being privately financed btw? I can’t see it happening if it isn’t.

Essentially.

The way Vernon laid it out in the recent interview is that the $390 million from the county will come in the form of tax subsidies and I believe the first representing a little over $225 million. These subsidies are entirely contingent on The Gathering/Krause being awarded an NHL franchise.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Is this being privately financed btw? I can’t see it happening if it isn’t.

Forsyth County has already committed to almost $400 million from public funds. That, along with a construction loan will get it started.

Interesting tidbit from last night:

As for who would pay for this, Krause says, "The taxpayers aren’t going to have to pay anything. They will not be on the hook for this. Our project shows it will be paid for 100% from real estate taxes from buildings that are going to be on our 102 acres."

I can't imagine this is 100% true, but the fact that the County has already committed almost $400 mil gets them off to a good start.

 

[dj4aces]

Is this being privately financed btw? I can’t see it happening if it isn’t.

The county has agreed to pay #390m of the $2bn development cost. I'm not sure if taxpayers themselves are on the hook for any of that, but they almost certainly will be for any additional infrastructure changes needed to make this work, such as new highways and road widening projects to support it.

I believe that funding, along with any zoning changes, could be made official at the county commissioners meeting on 26 March 2024, pending the outcome of the vote. Previous memorandums of understanding have passed by a 4-1 decision, so the expectation is this too will pass.

 

[sneakytitz]

The county has agreed to pay #390m of the $2bn development cost. I'm not sure if taxpayers themselves are on the hook for any of that, but they almost certainly will be for any additional infrastructure changes needed to make this work, such as new highways and road widening projects to support it.

Directly, yes, but Forsyth is going to make a killing on the property if the memorandum is largely the same as the agreement in principle. They get $2 million a year in leasing revenue, $1-$2.50 from every ticket sold at any event (collection increases in 5 year blocks once the NHL team starts play), plus all the taxes. Once the debt is retired, Forsyth can use any revenue from The Gathering on anything they want in the county. Forsyth will own the arena but will not be responsible for programming, operation, maintenance, oversight, upkeep, and repair of the arena.

 

[Bostonzamboni]

Eh, two things:

1) It is a pain in the ass getting into and out of games. MARTA is a disaster on the way out.

2) Suburbanites, mostly, don't like going into Atlanta at night these days. State Farm and Centennial Park aren't high crime areas but they're bordered by a few of them.

Atlanta crime is now much worse than when the Thrashers were there?

 

[sneakytitz]

Atlanta crime is now much worse than when the Thrashers were there?

No.

 

[Bostonzamboni]

I think you'll get 80% of tickets sold when the team isn't good if they are downtown. Thrashers sold very well even when they were dogshit the first 5 years but once the luster wore off and they weren't perennial contenders, the place was 80% filled, on average. If they were contenders, or on the cusp, yeah, you'd get far more but I think the suburbs means they're 100% filled even if they're dogshit.

Truth be told, Hawks are dogshit right now but they're selling 104% of their tickets. Every night is a sell out. Why? They're right in the middle of their buyers, who will support their team no matter what (a star doesn't help either!). Anson and Krause have the general area nailed down and they're right. That will be THE PLACE to be on any night there is a game, no matter the on ice product.

No, not every Hawks game has sold out this year. But they did so the past 2-3 seasons when a good product?

I've seen as low as 15,900 or so and some 16,000 crowds this year but yes, many games are still sellouts. It seems sellouts can be 17,000 to over 18,000 nowadays? Capacity is 17,000 plus now (?), reduced from 18,000 or 19,000 plus before the renovations?

I assume some tix are standing room only and that's why the capacity is sometimes exceeded in the ESPN attendance I see? Not sure if Phillips Arena had standing room back then.

And with this terrible Hawks season, I bet they even a few more games will fail to sell out next season?

 

[sneakytitz]

No, not every Hawks game has sold out this year. But they did so the past 2-3 seasons when a good product?

I've seen as low as 15,900 or so and some 16,000 crowds this year but yes, many games are still sellouts. It seems sellouts can be 17,000 to over 18,000 nowadays? Capacity is 17,000 plus now (?), reduced from 18,000 or 19,000 plus before the renovations?

I assume some tix are standing room only and that's why the capacity is sometimes exceeded in the ESPN attendance I see? Not sure if Phillips Arena had standing room back then.

And with this terrible Hawks season, I bet they even a few more games will fail to sell out next season?

The Hawks have sold 104% of their tickets this year. That is....a sell out every night, no matter the actual attendance.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Went to Atlanta Braves spring training in Florida and they draw really well.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

But Atlanta fans don’t show up….

Sarcasm

 

[sneakytitz]

Forsyth County has already committed to almost $400 million from public funds. That, along with a construction loan will get it started.

Interesting tidbit from last night:

I can't imagine this is 100% true, but the fact that the County has already committed almost $400 mil gets them off to a good start.

Did some searching this afternoon because it was slow at work, found a website associated with Krause that explained the numbers as follows:

The arena project's funding is designed to be repaid over 20 years through:

• Property taxes within The Gathering, anticipated to reach $900 million over two decades
• Annual sales taxes estimated between $6 to $8 million
• Progressive rental payments for the arena, starting at $2 million annually
• A structured event ticket fee, incrementally increasing over time

Also saw some comment on one of their Facebook pages that initial cost, first year, for Forsyth County is between $5-6 million, which I assume is mostly servicing the initial bond/debt. I don't see how the vote doesn't pass, it should be unanimous. Forsyth is basically saying "We will spend $5-6 million and offer tax subsidies up to $390 million if you get us an NHL team" and if they do, that's basically their return. If they don't, they still have to service the debt but they're going to still recoup a lot in the way of sales and property taxes, albeit a fraction of that.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Did some searching this afternoon because it was slow at work, found a website associated with Krause that explained the numbers as follows:

The arena project's funding is designed to be repaid over 20 years through:

• Property taxes within The Gathering, anticipated to reach $900 million over two decades
• Annual sales taxes estimated between $6 to $8 million
• Progressive rental payments for the arena, starting at $2 million annually
• A structured event ticket fee, incrementally increasing over time

Also saw some comment on one of their Facebook pages that initial cost, first year, for Forsyth County is between $5-6 million, which I assume is mostly servicing the initial bond/debt. I don't see how the vote doesn't pass, it should be unanimous. Forsyth is basically saying "We will spend $5-6 million and offer tax subsidies up to $390 million if you get us an NHL team" and if they do, that's basically their return. If they don't, they still have to service the debt but they're going to still recoup a lot in the way of sales and property taxes, albeit a fraction of that.

So the rub for Forsyth County is this: they're going to be on the hook for all the associated expenses for the development all without receiving any tax revenue. So all the costs for police, fire, garbage, water, sewer, roads - all paid for by taxes from other areas.

Whether that's a good deal for Forsyth County isn't for me to say - but that's the trade-off they're making.

 

[sneakytitz]

So the rub for Forsyth County is this: they're going to be on the hook for all the associated expenses for the development all without receiving any tax revenue. So all the costs for police, fire, garbage, water, sewer, roads - all paid for by taxes from other areas.

Whether that's a good deal for Forsyth County isn't for me to say - but that's the trade-off they're making.

The deal has Krause funding a 15,000 square foot police precinct/fire station on property.

Keep in mind though, they're not paying tangible dollars to the project - the county commitment directly to the project is coming through subsidies/tax credits. Forsyth isn't cutting a $390 million dollar check, or a series of checks worth $390 million, but they do have to issue bonds for what they are offering so as to not disrupt their budget (and they have to pay to service that debt) largely due to items you have mentioned, namely water, sewer, roads (although though they aren't funding the GA-400 stuff). That is also why the arena will be owned by Forsyth - Krause doesn't want that annual tax bill and needs the offset liabilities to fund and sell/lease the rest, which is almost certainly why it's being built in 4 phases over 9 years.

This is an incredibly advantageous deal for the county and while it does rely on tax subsidies, I think this is a fair ask, especially with those projections (which came from Ernst and Young as well as Georgia Tech and not Krause). This isn't the Battery or MBS where the Braves and Falcons, respectively, wanted tangible tax dollars. This is Krause saying, "I need tax credits and associated infrastructure commitments and I'll do the rest and the project will give you billions in revenue over the next 30 years, long after I'm dead." I do not like government funded arenas/stadiums but I think this is as fair/reasonable as things get and, honestly, this is how things should be across America. Tax dollars not being used to pay for things but tax breaks offered to allow things to be built.

Krause has read the Forsyth County citizens room and read it well. This is how you do it with those people, and I used to be one of them.

 

[Yukon Joe]

The deal has Krause funding a 15,000 square foot police precinct/fire station on property.

OK that's great.

But the County is still then responsible for funding the next 30 years operation of that police/fire station. All the salary costs, utilities, equipment, etc. That cost probably far outweighs the initial construction costs (albeit over 30 years).

Like I said I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad deal - but that's the downside.

 

[sneakytitz]

OK that's great.

But the County is still then responsible for funding the next 30 years operation of that police/fire station. All the salary costs, utilities, equipment, etc. That cost probably far outweighs the initial construction costs (albeit over 30 years).

Like I said I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad deal - but that's the downside.

Well certainly, but let's do some quick math:

$900 million in property taxes over 20 years.
$140 million in sales taxes over 20 years.
$40 million in rent over 20 years, at the very least.
$40-60 million via ticket sales over 20 years, based on projections.

That ignores jobs, developments outside the property (and associated sales/property taxes), etc.

I mean that's still a substantial return on investment of $390 million, which may drop to $225 million, I'm hearing, by next Tuesday.

 

[TheLegend]

The deal has Krause funding a 15,000 square foot police precinct/fire station on property.

Keep in mind though, they're not paying tangible dollars to the project - the county commitment directly to the project is coming through subsidies/tax credits. Forsyth isn't cutting a $390 million dollar check, or a series of checks worth $390 million, but they do have to issue bonds for what they are offering so as to not disrupt their budget (and they have to pay to service that debt) largely due to items you have mentioned, namely water, sewer, roads (although though they aren't funding the GA-400 stuff). That is also why the arena will be owned by Forsyth - Krause doesn't want that annual tax bill and needs the offset liabilities to fund and sell/lease the rest, which is almost certainly why it's being built in 4 phases over 9 years.

This is an incredibly advantageous deal for the county and while it does rely on tax subsidies, I think this is a fair ask, especially with those projections (which came from Ernst and Young as well as Georgia Tech and not Krause). This isn't the Battery or MBS where the Braves and Falcons, respectively, wanted tangible tax dollars. This is Krause saying, "I need tax credits and associated infrastructure commitments and I'll do the rest and the project will give you billions in revenue over the next 30 years, long after I'm dead." I do not like government funded arenas/stadiums but I think this is as fair/reasonable as things get and, honestly, this is how things should be across America. Tax dollars not being used to pay for things but tax breaks offered to allow things to be built.

Krause has read the Forsyth County citizens room and read it well. This is how you do it with those people, and I used to be one of them.

You are almost describing what TED was.

Except Meruelo was going to build the arena himself. Hope Krause really has done his homework.