garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
And I wasn't saying Connor is better, but I am saying his scoring was very, very exceptional.
Post Your Post-Draft Top 10 Jets Prospects
- Thread starter kyle o connor
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And I wasn't saying Connor is better, but I am saying his scoring was very, very exceptional.
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Yeah, yeah, I know. But based on what has happened, not some jungle ritual with dead chickens Helle can't reasonably be less than second on our list. Just can't.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Yeah, yeah, I know. But based on what has happened, not some jungle ritual with dead chickens Helle can't reasonably be less than second on our list. Just can't.
I think I was reasonable.
kyle o connor
enjoying first line highlife
Shiny new toy syndrome originally made me put Connor over Petan, but after moderate reflection Petan should be higher. Connor has some nice tools, but after watching some highlight vids some of those opposing dmen/goalies looked bad at the best of times. Petan has been producing against much better competition. July 2016-17 I may be singing a different tune but for now Petan is a better prospect.
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I've read all the rest of this thread and the arguments. Get that few have done what Connor has done in the USHL. USHL is an improving development league. OK. Now lets leave the USHL behind for a moment. Petan has excelled for 2 years longer than Connor as well as adding doing it at the WJC. Those things are worth a lot. In my list I put Connor 3rd, Petan 4th but they could just as easily have been interchanged. Both are very highly skilled centres with elite level hockey IQs. Connor has a size advantage that may help him play C at higher levels. Petan probably (not for certain though) will have to play a wing in the NHL. Petan's scoring rate has been phenomenal. Connor has not matched that so far. Apart from Connor's size advantage it is very difficult to choose between them. And the significance of that is debatable. Everything Petan has done has been done with a size disadvantage.
You were doing fine until your last 2 words. I don't believe there is any legitimate way anyone can justify a strong case for either one over the other.
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Sorry if I hurt your feelings. JK
Saying goalies are voodoo is reasonable, OK. I bow to the inescapable logic of that.
I understand the point that goalies are extra hard to predict and project but we are comparing prospects not proven NHLers here. Helle just keeps getting it done. He might bomb completely at the next level but that risk exists for all of them. Helle has not just succeeded at ever higher levels of competition but has excelled at each higher level. There just hasn't been any more he could have done. Among goalie prospects he is as high as he can possibly have climbed until he is given the opportunity at the next level.
Well if we're noting differences , let's start with speed . It's not remotely close . Then let's add handling the puck at top end speed , again not at all in the same breath .
4 inches in height is significant and Connor may still grow .
Petan is a good to very good prospect but there are a lot of things different abut them , and Connor has a huge advantage in some of them .
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Looking at draft year, Connor 1.429 ppg in a relatively weak league, Petan 1.69 ppg in a stronger league. The USHL is getting better but you can't just ignore the difference. Everybody looks good playing below their level. We'll get a better read on Connor next year against tougher competition. Height is a factor but don't forget that Petan scored his 120 pts that year without those 4 inches.
You'r , imo too hung up on statistics . They are worth examining but you can't reach a scouting conclusion from that alone , at least an accurate one . I would not say the USHL is a relatively weak league . Your're seeing the emergence of the league and that will continue to improve . There are extremely talented players that did and are playing in that league , as some have witnessed first hand , maybe for the first time . Look at the recent draft history .
Do you think Portland was a good team when he scored those points ? A really good team maybe ? Do you think the quality of the team overall and the players around him didn't impact his statistics ? Look at who he played with and who they could throw out for the PP .
You may think the Jets valued Petan more when they drafted him than the value they have on Connor , I 100 % don't . Doesn't mean Petan isn't or can't be very good , but you're not scouting the player by their talent and skill overall imo .
Have you watched any games in person , or spoken to anyone that has ? Again I pointed out a couple areas where Connor skills are significantly better than Petan . If you don't believe they are that of course is your choice , but your position would be wrong .
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Sorry if I hurt your feelings. JK
Saying goalies are voodoo is reasonable, OK. I bow to the inescapable logic of that.
I understand the point that goalies are extra hard to predict and project but we are comparing prospects not proven NHLers here. Helle just keeps getting it done. He might bomb completely at the next level but that risk exists for all of them. Helle has not just succeeded at ever higher levels of competition but has excelled at each higher level. There just hasn't been any more he could have done. Among goalie prospects he is as high as he can possibly have climbed until he is given the opportunity at the next level.
When I say it, I don't believe goalies to be random...
What I'm saying is even Helle, who is one of THE best goalie prospects in the world right now, may not end up being an above median NHL netminder. Reminder: above average starter also means top 15 in the world. You can have lots of potential and not make that mark.
So, there is a larger inherent risk to Hellebuyck, despite what he's done. Yes, if I am to bet on a goaltender with a gun to my head, I'd put my faith in Helle. Still, I know that there is a much larger risk factor inherent in Hellebuyck despite how good he is.
When I rank my prospects, I think of it as the average expected outcome for that player. All players have a distribution of what they possibly can become. Helle has some elite ceiling, but he has a much larger distribution and has a large extent falling below as well.
veganhunter
Mexico City Coyotes!
I always love reading your stuff, where might I be able to find a detailed breakdown of Petan similar to this?
Also I love Petan, a lot, but I have Connor ever so slightly ahead just because he has elite speed and better size (still a bit of a stigma with smaller guys). Elite speed has massive value so I like his chance of carving out a career as a non scorer (if he can't make it as a scorer) a little better. See Helm, Chimera, Hagelin, Raymond, etc.
Ehlers
Hellebucyk
Connor
Petan/Morrissey
Morrissey/Petan
The last 2 are interchangeable for me.
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Have you scouted Connor personally? Have you seen him play against the same level of competition as Petan plays against? No you have not because he does not play at that level. The USHL is clearly improving as are American players but it is not up to the CHL yet. How are you making your conclusions about his skills? Are you comparing him in competition against the best players of his age? No because most of them do not play in the USHL. I am not saying that Connor will never exceed Petan. Not at all. But right now Petan has 2 more years of high level competition under his belt. But I am not even saying that Petan is better now than what Connor is now. I'm saying there is no good basis for saying that one is significantly better than the other. And I don't believe there will be until we have some time with them playing at comparable levels.
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Why does Helle have a greater uncertainty than Connor? Connor has never played much less excelled at the high levels that Helle has. Every NHL team has only 2 goalies. It also has only 4 centres.
Mud Turtle
Registered User
- Jul 26, 2013
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Over on the main boards there's a great discussion going on about which team has the best prospect list.
Many seem to agree that the Jets are #1.
Here's my two cents that I think puts it all into perspective...
This particular team's 17th ranked prospect scored 84 points (including 39 goals) in 67 games last year in the WHL.
There are 16 players that are likely better prospects than him...on ONE team!
That player is Chase DeLeo... and the team is the Winnipeg Jets.
Prospect pools this deep are pretty rare. Fantastic drafting.
Many seem to agree that the Jets are #1.
Here's my two cents that I think puts it all into perspective...
This particular team's 17th ranked prospect scored 84 points (including 39 goals) in 67 games last year in the WHL.
There are 16 players that are likely better prospects than him...on ONE team!
That player is Chase DeLeo... and the team is the Winnipeg Jets.
Prospect pools this deep are pretty rare. Fantastic drafting.
scelaton
Registered User
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A=high likelihood to be top line F, top pair D
B+=high likelihood of top 6F, top-4D, top-20 G
B=> 50% probability of top 9F, 2nd/3rd pair D, or starting NHL G
C+=>50% probability of bottom 6 F
C=<50% probability of 100 NHL games
1. Ehlers-A
2. Connor-A
3.Petan-B+
4. Hellebuyck-B+
5. Morrissey-B+
6. Roslovic-B
7. Armia-B
8.Harkins-B
9.Spacek-B
10.Kostalek-B
11. Comrie-B
12. Copp-C+
13.Lemieux-C+
14.De Leo-C+
15.Kosmachuck-C+
16.Foley-C
17.Niku-C
18.Lipon-C
19.Poolman-C
20.Glover-C
Comments encouraged. Keep in mind that these probabilities are generally optimistic relative to NHL historical averages.
B+=high likelihood of top 6F, top-4D, top-20 G
B=> 50% probability of top 9F, 2nd/3rd pair D, or starting NHL G
C+=>50% probability of bottom 6 F
C=<50% probability of 100 NHL games
1. Ehlers-A
2. Connor-A
3.Petan-B+
4. Hellebuyck-B+
5. Morrissey-B+
6. Roslovic-B
7. Armia-B
8.Harkins-B
9.Spacek-B
10.Kostalek-B
11. Comrie-B
12. Copp-C+
13.Lemieux-C+
14.De Leo-C+
15.Kosmachuck-C+
16.Foley-C
17.Niku-C
18.Lipon-C
19.Poolman-C
20.Glover-C
Comments encouraged. Keep in mind that these probabilities are generally optimistic relative to NHL historical averages.
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I have seen Petan in person numerous times , both in practice and games . I have never seen Connor in person but know those that have and have coached against him , most importantly the Jets have .
You seem to believe you need to have the same scenarios to make a decision on whom has better long term promise . That doesn't happen in the same draft year amongst all players at all , yet they are assessed values and graded and ranked . There are poor players in the CHL and poor teams , just as there are strong players and strong teams . I've watched tonnes of WHL games , recently and for decades . By your premise HS players couldn't possibly be as good as a WHL player , or one couldn't decide a player from one venue was better than other , that's preposterous. Just today a former HS player that was drafted from South St.Paul out of his HS league was elected to the Hall of Fame . He btw played for the St. Paul Vulcans out of the , shocker , USHL .
The talent and future production and value of any player doesn't depend on where they play , it doesn't . Also for your future information , they have played at the same level , U18's , so why you continue to feel that isn't the case is lost on me .
You can compare prospects , you can prefer whomever you wish , who you think is better is your opinion , but saying you can't compare them or by going on one players statistics being more or greater doesn't mean that player has more future value , it doesn't .
Besides , didn't you post that Nic Petan was never going to play for the Jets ? I believe I read that in one of you posts , although maybe it wasn't you .
You don't need identical levels or as you say comparable ( although there was ) levels to evaluate , you simply don't .
Good post , and not nit picking but your grades relating to NHL probablility is for what course of time or amount of games ?
And saying that he may be behind a couple players not listed on some lists on my personal list , it's subjective , but how one translates his game from one level to the next is a key of course .
You list the last grade as under a 100 games , is the the amount you link for the other grades as well ?
scelaton
Registered User
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Thanks...I'm sort of making it up as I go along... there is no time restriction... and let's assume the As and Bs will be for >200 NHL games and the C/C+s for 100 NHL games.
I just thought it would give the discussion a little more substance and be more fun to attach probabilities and ceilings....
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The bolded makes the point quite clearly. We also have a very strong group of goalie prospects. I haven't done a comparison of goalie prospects but I'd be surprised if any team has a better one.
We are a little weak on D though. There might be quite a few teams ahead of us there. We were a bit thin in top end forward prospects but this draft has given us a boost there.
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Thanks , it's just how a list is constructed or what the parameters for ranking are is quite different for all of us .
For me I tend to do it pretty much like if it was an expansion draft , you get to protect one player then expose the rest , then protect the next one . So I value the prospects long term , balancing upside , probability , anticipated games played .
It's hard to be firm in one's list , I would have Lemieux higher and surprise , Copp . I also like Poolman and Franklin , or at least feel they may outperform some players listed above them on many peoples list .
One thing maybe some are overlooking is that Lemieux was essentially a first rounder ( 1st pick of the second ) we know the Jets did value him strongly enough to explore trading up , and know they valued him enough to mandate him being included in the Kane / Bogosian trade . He scores , battles , has the unquestioned bloodlines , so hard for me to not have him in the to 10 . Saying that , I can see why some are higher on some other players .
We see the plan unfolding
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That's not what I'm trying to say at all. The scouts have had to make their evaluations of all these players under varying conditions. They have compiled their lists in order from top rated to bottom. I'm looking at these 2 particular players. Both have excelled in their leagues. But they are different collections of ability, different kinds and styles of players and the leagues are different. If I was to go only by the stats I would compare draft years only and see that Petan scored significantly more ppg in a tougher league. He is the clear winner. But I did not say that. The hockey experts with trained eyes have seen those same things you mentioned, speed, puck handling etc and rated him very highly in an outstanding class so his rating relative to Petan is raised by some amount with no number attached. Petan wasn't actually drafted until the 43rd pick. The assumption has always been that it was just his size that pushed him down. Maybe, maybe not. We will never know but for whatever reason his rating was reduced somewhat. Petan was also in a very strong draft class FWIW.
We don't have head to head competition between them. We don't have them competing against the same group of opponents. We have stats for both but we don't have a way to normalize those stats. We have scouts ratings for each but those ratings are relative to 2 different groups, not to each other and not to the same group. We are left with eye-ball tests but we don't have even those directly comparing the 2. Where is your basis for comparison? You have seen one but not the other and you have talked to people who have seen the other but not the one you have seen. OK, good enough for rough comparison but where is your justification to say that either one is 'substantially' better than the other? You say "most importantly the Jets have". Yes they have seen both. Have they announced that they rate Connor 'significantly' higher than Petan?
I think the biggest difference between the 2 is that we know Petan better. Everyone says that Connor has high elite potential so I put him ahead of Petan on my list but the margin has to be slim. Because there is no data to justify a wide separation between them. This year we will see Connor against tougher competition in the NCAA and at the WJC. I hope he wins the Hobey Baker and dominates at the WJC. By the end of the season we will have a lot more data on Connor. There was the Ivan Hlinka. They both played 5 games. Petan had 2 points, Connor 3. Not much difference and pretty small sample. I don't think you can declare a winner from that.
If they had both been in the same draft class we would have seen them rated against each other. There would be many lists and each would be up on one and down on the next. In the end the teams would draft according to their best guesses and 5-6 years later we might be able to declare a winner or maybe it takes another year or 2 to be certain. It very well might not have matched the draft order when we do get a decision.
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How are your ratings derived? They look pretty good to me. I thought Comrie should be a little higher but he is correct according to your grade definitions. Maybe a starting goalie should be in the same group as 3rd pair D and a backup goalie should be grouped with bottom 6 F. Other than that I can't find anything to argue with.
scelaton
Registered User
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