Post 2013 Lockout Forward Tournament Tier 2 Final: Sebastian Aho Versus Matthew Tkachuk

[DitchMarner]

Since the players involved are at different stages of their careers, the best way to vote is probably by answering this question: If I was a General Manager and I could draft one player for my team (having the knowledge that I have about each player at this point in time), which player would I choose?

Some are more accomplished than others and some have been more injury-prone than others, but under different circumstances, how different could things have been?



Jason Robertson (16-7 in votes - 69.6%)
Johnny Gaudreau

Matthew Tkachuk (17-2 in votes - 89.5%)
Kyle Connor

Sebastian Aho (15-9 in votes - 62.5%)
Mark Stone

Mathew Barzal
Filip Forsberg (28-2 in votes - 93.3%)

Johnathan Huberdeau
William Nylander (29 votes to 23 - 55.8%)

Tyler Seguin
Mark Scheifele (25 votes to 16 - 61%)

Taylor Hall (14 votes to 4 - 77.8%)
Clayton Keller

Patrik Laine
Sam Reinhart (18 votes to 7 - 72%)


Round 2:

Sam Reinhart
Filip Forsberg (16 votes to 1 - 94.1%)

Mark Scheifele
Sebastian Aho (14 votes to 6 - 70%)

Jason Robertson (16 votes to 11 - 59.3%)
William Nylander

Matthew Tkachuk (24 votes to 3 - 88.9%)
Taylor Hall


Round 3:


Filip Forsberg
Sebastian Aho (23 votes to 10 - 69.7%)

Jason Robertson
Matthew Tkachuk (18 votes to 2 - 90%)


Final:

Sebastian Aho
Matthew Tkachuk

Click to read more...

 

[I am not exposed]

Tkachuk

 

[gritdash60]

Finnish homer but still gotta vote Tkachuk here.

 

[GreeningOil]

Tkachuk is simply better. It hurts me that we took Puljujarvi instead

 

[tarheelhockey]

Canes fan voting Tkachuk. Even beyond the caliber of the players, he is a unique element that really can’t be replaced. You can find another Aho type player if you need to.

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Aho is fantastic but that's Tkatchuk. He's in the upper echelon of the second tier of elites after McDavid, Kucherov, and Mackinnon. He's right up there with guys like Pastrnak. Aho is a step or two below.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

How the F did Gaudreau lose to Robertson ???

 

[tarheelhockey]

How the F did Gaudreau lose to Robertson ???

Recency bias. Robertson outscored Gaudreau 109-74 and 80-60 the past two years. Those are big gaps as both of their reputations changed a lot in opposite directions.

If we look at their whole careers, Robertson is basically Gaudreau with half the sample size. There’s really no reason to take the less established player. This is about drafting, and the possibility that Robertson will go on to exceed Gaudreau’s peak in his late 20s is a lot less likely than him declining or getting injured and becoming something lesser.