POLL: Was 2017 Draft a Bust?

[waltdetroit]

Petruzzelli is the pick that intrigues me the most, as going in he was the #2 ranked NA goalie in the draft. He struggled in his first year in the NCAA last year, but he seems to have rebounded nicely this year. It's by no means a lock, but I could easily see in 10 years him being the prize of this draft for us.

*edit* I made a mistake, the stats I was looking at were for last year, doesnt look like he's played this year.

He is the back-up to a possible Hobey Baker candidate... 13 GP 2.32 GA .908 SV% 8 W 3 L 3 SO

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

What are people disliking about Kotkansalo at this point?

So, he's a 3rd rounder, who is playing behind 1st and 2nd rounders that are older than him. Is that a red flag at this point? Or are people actually watching lots of BU games to form an opinion?

Not a great skater, very little offense. I watched him with Finland and I wanted him to be good, and he just... really wasn't. I wouldn't be surprised to find out it's similar at BU.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Don’t know what’s so wrong with Lindstrom and Kotkansalo. For a 4th rounder, Setkov is also still a nice prospect.
Rasmussen will have a long career.

Overall you can’t say a draft is a bust if you can get 2-3 players from it. I think we will.

Neither of them can be described as speedy. Lindstrom is the better of the two, but he will be on the slow side for an NHL defenseman without putting in some serious work. That's a huge red flag in today's NHL.

It's like this whole draft crop intentionally ignored everything that made a player good in 2017, like they were projecting the league to slow down and become more defensive. It looks like the opposite is happening, actually.

 

[Ezekial]

It's absurd calling a bunch of 19 year olds busts when they haven't really gotten the chance to prove themselves, but I'll humor our top pick for the sake or argument. Rasmussen may not be having the greatest rookie season, but he has shown some good stuff and I think with some experience, he'll turn into a top-6 player.

It's also worthy to mention that some of the guys taken behind him aren't really doing better than him either. One guy to mention is Vilardi, because many fans complained that we did not draft him, but this guy is really made of glass and I'm glad we dodged him.

Exactly.

People voting no because they didn't like the draft at the time would've loved the draft at the time had we drafted Vilardi... Meanwhile Rasmussen has played more NHL games than Vilardi has played hockey games since draft night 2017.

 

[Shaman464]

One thing to keep in mind as the Wings pick in the top third of the draft: they will be drafting (after the first round) players that straddle rounds. Their seconds will be closer to the first rounders Detroit drafted in the 00s than their firsts they draft now will be like the firsts from that period. a 33rd overall should be more scrutinized than a 57th overall. We should be worried when players drafted in the 30s don't preform/make the NHL as a rule. Its a sign that scouting/team philosophy aren't working.

 

[kliq]

Wings will draft Knight

Gotcha.

 

[Winger98]

I've seen some articles that use the 100 game threshold for success, while others have done 200 games. I saw one that was 160 games because that is the point where they earn a pension.

As for the viability of individual draft picks, this was a good article (although a few years ago now):
Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations

Using this as some kind of scoring:
10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular
4 - Fringe NHLer
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games

The #9 pick ranks out at 5.03 on that scale.

Have to admit, it's a bit of an eye opener that the #9 pick generally equates to a guy who is a regular. I think Frk It has posted PPG likelihood for various picks and pick ranges and I remember being surprised at how quickly those numbers fell off, too. It's stuff like this that fuels the whole idea of just tanking for as high of a pick as you can get. The percentages of getting a high impact player outside of the top3 picks in any draft are just low.

Also, I had no idea the pension point was only 160 games. I'm sure part of the reason it's low is to try to include as many guys as possible. I mean, it's not like these guys are getting a degree or anything while they're playing to have something to do after their careers are over. But I have to think just as large of a part is that it's just that hard to make the NHL and stick.

I mean, technically my post was in response to the statement that you can call a draft a bust if you don't have 2-3 players making an impact for YOUR TEAM. So he did say 3. and he did say your team. I'd stand by 95% for 3 players and probably 90% for 2

Going forward, we can ignore the part about "your team"... but I think you need to move your bar a bit. For example... who the **** Klas Dahlbeck?
Are we really saying our 2007, 2010, and 2011 drafts were successful, and 2017 already has no chance of reaching those levels?

Yeah, those drafts might have to be considered successful. Going to the numbers in the post above that a pension kicks in at just 160 games, that seems like a low number. But look at the Wings drafts from mid-late90s. They had just five guys from 95-2000 who hit that. out of 55 picks.

Honestly, those numbers are lower than I expected, but maybe I just haven't appreciated how difficult it is to get in the league and stick.

edit: and, to be fair to folks on here, 70% of the poll voted it's too early to tell.

 

[TCNorthstars]

One thing to keep in mind as the Wings pick in the top third of the draft: they will be drafting (after the first round) players that straddle rounds. Their seconds will be closer to the first rounders Detroit drafted in the 00s than their firsts they draft now will be like the firsts from that period. a 33rd overall should be more scrutinized than a 57th overall. We should be worried when players drafted in the 30s don't preform/make the NHL as a rule. Its a sign that scouting/team philosophy aren't working.

I don't think you appreciate how hard it is for second rounders to make the NHL and stick. More of a rule, only about 1/3 of draft picks in the second round stick for 100+ games. The average rating (from the supplied above) for a pick in the second round is around 2.7-2.8 which equates to:
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games

 

[RedWingzz]

Am I only one who see Gallant as NIL player in couple years?

Gallant has a ceiling of a 4th liner. Best case scenario is that he has a 7-10 year career as a useful 4th liner. Probable scenario is that he never makes it as an NHL regular.

 

[RedWingzz]

Exactly.

People voting no because they didn't like the draft at the time would've loved the draft at the time had we drafted Vilardi... Meanwhile Rasmussen has played more NHL games than Vilardi has played hockey games since draft night 2017.

I specifically remember wanting Necas at the time. I would trade Ras for Necas in a heartbeat right now. Necas has a far higher upside.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure you can. If none of the players make a noticeable impact on the team, then what's the point?

Depends on what a ”noticeable impact” means. I have a hard time seeing Ras not be an effective player for a long time. Let’s say he has a Tomas Holmstrom esque career, is that a noticeable impact or not? And I’d say he has potential to be a lot more than that.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Have to admit, it's a bit of an eye opener that the #9 pick generally equates to a guy who is a regular. I think Frk It has posted PPG likelihood for various picks and pick ranges and I remember being surprised at how quickly those numbers fell off, too. It's stuff like this that fuels the whole idea of just tanking for as high of a pick as you can get. The percentages of getting a high impact player outside of the top3 picks in any draft are just low.

Also, I had no idea the pension point was only 160 games. I'm sure part of the reason it's low is to try to include as many guys as possible. I mean, it's not like these guys are getting a degree or anything while they're playing to have something to do after their careers are over. But I have to think just as large of a part is that it's just that hard to make the NHL and stick.

I had the same reaction. I don't have time to find the chart right now but the expected production by draft position is eye opening (if not depressing). I am not wild about throwing around the term bust because the odds are stacked against all players outside of the top-half of the first round. We don't want to admit it because we want a super short, clean rebuild.

2017 was like most drafts for me. We took some guys that I was comfortable with and passed on others that I liked. In truth, however, that is every draft class and 2017 on the whole isn't shaping up as a stellar one thus far. I am right with everyone else who wanted to see better post-draft production from this crew, but it is way too early to cast the dye for this class.[/QUOTE]

 

[Ezekial]

I specifically remember wanting Necas at the time. I would trade Ras for Necas in a heartbeat right now. Necas has a far higher upside.

I mean I agree he has higher upside right now, but that doesn't make Rasmussen or that draft a bust for us. Rasmussen has plenty of upside that people don't want to acknowledge. This thread is a perfect example.

 

[RedWingzz]

I mean I agree he has higher upside right now, but that doesn't make Rasmussen or that draft a bust for us. Rasmussen has plenty of upside that people don't want to acknowledge. This thread is a perfect example.

I like Ras though, I just like Necas' upside more. By no means do I think Ras is a bust, he's already a useful NHL player at 20 years old. I just don't really know if he will ever be able to produce tons of offence in the NHL. I like Ras, I like his intangibles, I like his compete, I like his play in front of the net. I just don't think he has enough raw skill to be a point producer in the NHL. Necas is much more skilled.

The rest of the draft is another story. I don't like calling 2nd-7th rounders "busts" because statistically speaking, these guys have a better chance of never making it. If Ras is the only player of the 11 in the draft to make it to the NHL as a regular, I would label the draft as underwhelming, and that's how I see it ending up.

The 2018 draft is completely different. Zadina, Veleno and McIsaac to me are surefire NHL players, and then Berggren should get there as well based on his high skill level. Regula could make it and is trending in th right direction. I don't know enough on Barton or O'reilly to comment. Eliasson and Brattstrom are goalies, who are always wildcards, and take far longer to develop.

Kivenmaki to me is intriguing, and I absolutely loved that pick. It was a gamble on skill, and I could honestly see him making a push one day to become an NHLer. He is definitely a longterm project, but from everything I've read, I think he is a name to keep in mind.

 

[GMR]

Likely too early to tell. You look at who the other teams drafted, and not a lot of names jump out at me. Why? Because it's too early to tell.

 

[ricky0034]

Is that the best case scenario or are you just being dramatic? I'll give you a hint, thats not the best case... youre being dramatic

yeah i'll admit there's an element of drama in the word choice,"best case realistic scenario" is something of a mouthful compared to "best case scenario" even though they're functionally pretty much the same thing

realistically I could see Rasmussen as anything from a 3rd line Winger to a 3rd line Center(only if the Wings get desperate from say Veleno disappointing and not drafting a Center this year and keep sticking him there) to a 2nd line Winger,I see the chance of him being a 1st line Winger(or even a 2nd line Center since I don't think he's really fit for the position well offensively) as being extremely small

same with Lindstrom,at this point he's realistically anywhere from a bust to a 3rd pairing guy,he's extremely unlikely to be better than that given his awful offensive numbers even in Sweden

the other guys honestly aren't even realistically worth mentioning at this point,maybe someone like Setkov sees a game or two at some point but he won't stick,most of these guys won't even ever get contracts

so yes "best case scenario" is perhaps a tad dramatic but I would consider the Wings getting a 2nd line Winger and 3rd pairing Defenseman out of this draft at this point to be on the high end of realistic expectations

 

[newfy]

yeah i'll admit there's an element of drama in the word choice,"best case realistic scenario" is something of a mouthful compared to "best case scenario" even though they're functionally pretty much the same thing

realistically I could see Rasmussen as anything from a 3rd line Winger to a 3rd line Center(only if the Wings get desperate from say Veleno disappointing and not drafting a Center this year and keep sticking him there) to a 2nd line Winger,I see the chance of him being a 1st line Winger(or even a 2nd line Center since I don't think he's really fit for the position well offensively) as being extremely small

same with Lindstrom,at this point he's realistically anywhere from a bust to a 3rd pairing guy,he's extremely unlikely to be better than that given his awful offensive numbers even in Sweden

the other guys honestly aren't even realistically worth mentioning at this point,maybe someone like Setkov sees a game or two at some point but he won't stick,most of these guys won't even ever get contracts

so yes "best case scenario" is perhaps a tad dramatic but I would consider the Wings getting a 2nd line Winger and 3rd pairing Defenseman out of this draft at this point to be on the high end of realistic expectations

So its not realistic best case scenario, its realistic scenario. Yes its pretty realistic that Rasmussen could be a 2nd or third line winger and Lindstrom a third pairing guy or bust. But its also still fairly realistic that Rasmussen could be a top line winger and Lindstrom could be a number 4 dman. Not sure what hes done to say he cant be a first line winger or that its extremely small chance that he could be one.

Its still fairly realistic that Rasmussen is a top 6/even first line winger and Lindstrom is a number 4 or 5 dman. You can say he doesnt produce in Sweden but all I've read is that hes playing big minutes and looks great for a young guy over there. Its also still realistic that at least one other of those players drafted has an NHL career of some kind.

Its definitely being dramatic and saying the high end of expectations right now is a 2nd line winger and 3rd pairing dman is just off the mark. Thats in the realm of possibility but I would say right now its fairly likely the wings get 3 useful NHLers out of this draft

 

[Shaman464]

I don't think you appreciate how hard it is for second rounders to make the NHL and stick. More of a rule, only about 1/3 of draft picks in the second round stick for 100+ games. The average rating (from the supplied above) for a pick in the second round is around 2.7-2.8 which equates to:
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games

With the number of picks Detroit has had in the early to mid 2nd round they should have a couple players emerge as NHL regulars. Not all of them, but they shouldn’t uniformly bust.

 

[TCNorthstars]

With the number of picks Detroit has had in the early to mid 2nd round they should have a couple players emerge as NHL regulars. Not all of them, but they shouldn’t uniformly bust.

Hronek anf Bert look pretty good so they aren’t uniformingly busting. Can a second rounder even bust? And we still have some second rounders with potential in the pipeline.

 

[RabidBadger]

Likely too early to tell. You look at who the other teams drafted, and not a lot of names jump out at me. Why? Because it's too early to tell.

What you said, plus it being the worst draft in recent history in terms of talent. I remember reading an article that teams could pretty much only hope to get an Nhl regular player outside of the top two.

 

[Ishad]

Feel like 17 draft is getting a bad wrap because Ras was never the sexy pick and the 18 draft is a runaway hype train.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

It's absurd calling a bunch of 19 year olds busts when they haven't really gotten the chance to prove themselves, but I'll humor our top pick for the sake or argument. Rasmussen may not be having the greatest rookie season, but he has shown some good stuff and I think with some experience, he'll turn into a top-6 player.

It's also worthy to mention that some of the guys taken behind him aren't really doing better than him either. One guy to mention is Vilardi, because many fans complained that we did not draft him, but this guy is really made of glass and I'm glad we dodged him.

I think Ras has upside; however, I don't think you can say that Zablocki, Gallant, Fraser, Webb, or Gilmour haven't had the opportunity to prove themselves. They've all had 2 years post draft to show any sort of offensive development and none of them have done that. Zablocki is the only one with a legitimate reason for this as he has had injury issues but even when you consider that his play has been disappointing. These 5 players should not be given the opportunity to "prove themselves" any further as they're a waste of any of the available contract slots the Wings may have this offseason.

Typically, players that do not outscore their peers in Jr hockey will not outscore their peers in pro hockey; being able to produce in Jr is a good indicator of the level of offensive upside you can expect a prospect to have. That doesn't mean a 1.5 point per game Junior player will be an top offensive threat, just that you can expect them to be able to produce at a somewhat meaningful rate at the NHL level.

So its not realistic best case scenario, its realistic scenario. Yes its pretty realistic that Rasmussen could be a 2nd or third line winger and Lindstrom a third pairing guy or bust. But its also still fairly realistic that Rasmussen could be a top line winger and Lindstrom could be a number 4 dman. Not sure what hes done to say he cant be a first line winger or that its extremely small chance that he could be one.

Its still fairly realistic that Rasmussen is a top 6/even first line winger and Lindstrom is a number 4 or 5 dman. You can say he doesnt produce in Sweden but all I've read is that hes playing big minutes and looks great for a young guy over there. Its also still realistic that at least one other of those players drafted has an NHL career of some kind.

Realistic that he becomes a 1st line winger? Realistic typically means a greater than 50% chance for the outcome to occur so I don't think anyone would say that is a reasonable outcome for Rasmussen. Ras as a 1st line winger is not realistic at all, unless you considered Abdelkader or Zach Hyman to be top liner wingers too. He hasn't really done much this year to scream that he has top line upside, but the fact that he isn't getting completely dominated at 5v5 is encouraging. His "realistic" upside is still what it always has been: a middle 6 guy that can be your net front presence on your PP, perhaps something of a JVR or Anders Lee type.

Its definitely being dramatic and saying the high end of expectations right now is a 2nd line winger and 3rd pairing dman is just off the mark. Thats in the realm of possibility but I would say right now its fairly likely the wings get 3 useful NHLers out of this draft

And when you say "realistic" I'm not sure you understand how unlikely it is for any of the CHL drafted players to play any sort of meaningful role for an NHL team with their point totals. Almost every one of them has been below average offensively, especially compared to their peers, and when you look at what Adams, Setkov, or Kotkansalo have done it isn't really encouraging. Perhaps Setkov or Kotkansalo could carve out a career as 3rd pairing defenceman but that's really their upside at this point.

When you say "Fairly likely the Wings get 3 useful NHLers" do you mean that the players will be of a top 6/top 4 role? If the Wings get extremely lucky that will be the case or I guess it means we're still in tank mode in 2024. As of now only Rasmussen has shown he has top 6 upside, Lindstrom is projecting more as a 3rd pairing guy, and nobody else is really on any sort of path for an NHL role at this moment. Petruzzelli could still make it but he's a ways off anyways, likely 3 years or more. If we can get what you say we will I'll happily eat all the crow in the world but I just don't see it happening.

 

[nuck]

Rasmussen at 19 is ahead of Mantha at 20. What will he be by 23? If he isn't a bust then the draft isn't. It takes 5 years for a redraft to be accurate and 6'6" guys are not known to hit their stride early. Ottawa took a similar tree with their 1st in 2016. Rasmussen already appears to be ahead of him but both could be very good players.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think Ras will be a career NHLer which in and if itself makes it a decent draft.

That said with 11 picks during a full on rebuild given draft position, you best do better than 1 career nhler

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Mantha was drafted in 2013 and I still don't know if he is bust or superstar

He's neither.