Playoff Zone Entry Discussion

[Badger Mayhew*]

http://www.shutdownline.com/hurricanes/statistical-analysis/tracking-the-playoffs-zone-entries.html

I can't really conclude anything from this data to be honest. Interesting that the Leafs and Capitals were the best teams at maintaining control during an entry, but neither made it past the first round.

How exactly are we supposed to evaluate teams based on this data? I get that maintaining control is superior to dumping the puck in, but what are we supposed to conclude about the team's performance? Is this just another piece of the puzzle?

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[do0glas]

seems like small sample size strikes again.

total shots wouldve been nice with this data i think. Is toronto so high because most of their entries are through skating/passing? so essentially most of their shots would come off that type of play, but did they average more or less shots per/60 with that method?

i dunno, i cant really tell anything off of this. based on these numbers we rarely held control on our zone entries, but i remember clearly outshooting our opponents most nights. (sharks). so does mean we were a forechecking team? for instance, the blues numbers speak to that as well. as do the kings.

so really, i think this type of study would do better from time adjusted zone entries. where you erase the first ten seconds of the entry to determine control. similar to zone start adusted numbers.

 

[Cunneen]

http://www.shutdownline.com/hurricanes/statistical-analysis/tracking-the-playoffs-zone-entries.html

I can't really conclude anything from this data to be honest. Interesting that the Leafs and Capitals were the best teams at maintaining control during an entry, but neither made it past the first round.

How exactly are we supposed to evaluate teams based on this data? I get that maintaining control is superior to dumping the puck in, but what are we supposed to conclude about the team's performance? Is this just another piece of the puzzle?

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/9/how-important-is-neutral-zone-play

Read this article by Eric T. Great explanation on the importance of zone entry data

 

[do0glas]

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/9/how-important-is-neutral-zone-play

Read this article by Eric T. Great explanation on the importance of zone entry data

full data is still too limited to make any lasting judgements.

sample size for dump ins is already much higher than any other zone entry. so there is the variance and regression factor at play already.

He also didnt list the total attempts on each type of zone entry. if i do 40 dumps and shoot at a 25% clip/score at a 1.4% clip and i do 5 carry ins shoot at an 80% clip/score at 2.5% or something. there is too much disparity to say carrying in is better in the long run.

especially when you look at team fenwick. many of the top possession teams employ dump/chip and chase over carry/pass-in.

now, i will say that its not necessarily riskier if your top 9 guys are trying to carry the puck in. a pass will probably have a similar risk factor to a dump. in the end you are giving up possession in that instance. if you have the skaters, carry ins should at least be close to 50% of your plays. itll be interesting to see if this catches on and we start to see full data.

 

[Cunneen]

full data is still too limited to make any lasting judgements.

sample size for dump ins is already much higher than any other zone entry. so there is the variance and regression factor at play already.

He also didnt list the total attempts on each type of zone entry. if i do 40 dumps and shoot at a 25% clip/score at a 1.4% clip and i do 5 carry ins shoot at an 80% clip/score at 2.5% or something. there is too much disparity to say carrying in is better in the long run.

especially when you look at team fenwick. many of the top possession teams employ dump/chip and chase over carry/pass-in.

now, i will say that its not necessarily riskier if your top 9 guys are trying to carry the puck in. a pass will probably have a similar risk factor to a dump. in the end you are giving up possession in that instance. if you have the skaters, carry ins should at least be close to 50% of your plays. itll be interesting to see if this catches on and we start to see full data.

As more data has come in, we can almost confirm how much more valuable it is to gain the blue-line with possession as opposed to without. Even when taking into account turnovers, gaining the line with possession is so much more valuable than dumping it in.

Further analysis showed that (http://www.sloansportsconference.co..., Neutral, And Defensive Zone Performance.pdf) if there is even a 35% chance of successful entry via carry/pass, a player/team should try and cross the blue-line with possession as opposed to without.

 

[do0glas]

As more data has come in, we can almost confirm how much more valuable it is to gain the blue-line with possession as opposed to without. Even when taking into account turnovers, gaining the line with possession is so much more valuable than dumping it in.

Further analysis showed that (http://www.sloansportsconference.co..., Neutral, And Defensive Zone Performance.pdf) if there is even a 35% chance of successful entry via carry/pass, a player/team should try and cross the blue-line with possession as opposed to without.

Thats definitely a better set of numbers.

There seems to be an across the board increase when carrying the puck in versus dumping it. it also alludes to a defensive strategy to limit zone entries in this fashion. probably why the trap works so well defensively.

I still think you will see most teams at tied scores resorting to dump ins. but when trailing this is probably valuable information to have.

 

[Cunneen]

Thats definitely a better set of numbers.

There seems to be an across the board increase when carrying the puck in versus dumping it. it also alludes to a defensive strategy to limit zone entries in this fashion. probably why the trap works so well defensively.

I still think you will see most teams at tied scores resorting to dump ins. but when trailing this is probably valuable information to have.

Well, most teams at tied scores may dump in, but that is strategically the wrong play. '

And I agree, this shows why the trap was such an effective defensive tool.

 

[do0glas]

Well, most teams at tied scores may dump in, but that is strategically the wrong play. '

And I agree, this shows why the trap was such an effective defensive tool.

well the human factor is still in play. a bottom sixer is more likely to dump than risk a neutral zone turnover. that typically leads to a healthy scratch

top 6 guys though, they should always be carrying in if they can.

 

[Cunneen]

well the human factor is still in play. a bottom sixer is more likely to dump than risk a neutral zone turnover. that typically leads to a healthy scratch

top 6 guys though, they should always be carrying in if they can.

Agreed, coaches are stupid and will scratch a guy because of one play while ignoring everything else he has done in that game or games (hello Randy Carlyle).