Playoff Race Thread - The Stretch Run

[Mess]

Old Thread is full ..

Continue on in this new thread at the start of Leafs 10 game unbeaten streak that is about to start with the Arizona.

GO Leafs GO

Old thread: Playoff Race Thread

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[Advanced stats]

Another big night tonight.

Philly vs Florida...hoping for a Philly regulation win.
Columbus vs Buffalo... obviously buffalo winning is ideal.
NYI vs Nashville. Hopefully Nashville wins. Islanders are slowly falling out of the playoffs.

And Toronto must win.
GLG

 

[1specter]

Islanders are slowly falling out of the playoffs.

with the big deal that was made about Tavares being eliminated before them last year (even though they got swept by Carolina lol) and the whole 'we don't need you' crap it would be incredibly satisfying if they missed and Leafs made it.

 

[Mess]

NYI vs Nashville. Hopefully Nashville wins. Islanders are slowly falling out of the playoffs.

And Toronto must win.
GLG

NYI have 72 points in 55 games while our Leafs have 68 in 57.

Both teams have identical 5-3-2 records in their last 10 games. So its status Quo as far as the playoff race goes this past month.

How can the NYI be falling out of the playoffs, while the Leafs are surging when they have +2 games in hand +4 points and the 2 teams have the same records in the last month?

What I see as happening based on these facts, that even if the NYI get passed by Columbus and fall out of a top 3 in the Metro, what they're doing is cutting off paths to the playoffs for our Leafs because they're essentially using one to the WC spots. However they're only 2 spots out of #2 in Metro so currently have 4 avenues into the playoffs.

So Leafs have one less playoff opportunity to get in if they don't finish 3rd in the Atlantic. While NYI are sitting with 3 better opportunities #3 in Metro and both WC spots.

Anyone of NYI, Columbus and Philly winning is bad news for our Leafs because they're closing the door on the wild card spots to get into the playoffs with perhaps both spots taken by Metro teams, leaving only the #3 in the ATL the only road to the playoffs.

 

[tom leafers]

NYI have 72 points in 55 games while our Leafs have 68 in 57.

Both teams have identical 5-3-2 records in their last 10 games. So its status Quo as far as the playoff race goes this past month.

How can the NYI be falling out of the playoffs, while the Leafs are surging when they have +2 games in hand +4 points and the 2 teams have the same records in the last month?

What I see as happening based on these facts, that even if the NYI get passed by Columbus and fall out of a top 3 in the Metro, what they're doing is cutting off paths to the playoffs for our Leafs because they're essentially using one to the WC spots.

So Leafs have one less playoff opportunity to get in if they don't finish 3rd in the Atlantic. While NYI are sitting with 3 better opportunities #3 in Metro and both WC spots.

Thats exactly what i was thinking lol. They're literally two points behind Pittsburgh, the second hottest team in the league behind Tampa i believe. they're not slowly falling out of the playoffs at all

 

[Dekes For Days]

How can the NYI be falling out of the playoffs, while the Leafs are surging when they have +2 games in hand +4 points and the 2 teams have the same records in the last month?

Since the Islander's point streak at the beginning of the year ended, they are 18th in point percentage.

Leafs are 6th in that time.

 

[therealkoho]

I still feel that they're in a pretty precarious position inre both 'Canes and Florida

at this point the Leafs just cannot afford anymore back to back losses and need wins that come in at least twos or threes

Once the Leafs are healthy I believe they can knock off the Lightning in the first round, Bruins however sad are a different story

 

[Mess]

Thats exactly what i was thinking lol. They're literally two points behind Pittsburgh, the second hottest team in the league behind Tampa i believe. they're not slowly falling out of the playoffs at all

Our Leafs have been saved via the Campbell trade as we have earned 5 of a possible 6 points which have kept us in the playoff hunt..

Our Leafs have actually lost 8 of our last 14 games so were not climbing, we're currently hanging on.

Every single team currently in a playoff spot in the Eastern conference has a better record in the last 10 games than our Leafs except the NYI's which is the same. That means all teams are gaining not losing ground or at worst break-even in NYI case (but with + 2 games in hand and +4 extra points certainly in the drivers seat).

 

[Vaive50]

Old Thread is full ..

Continue on in this new thread at the start of Leafs 10 game unbeaten streak that is about to start.

GO Leafs GO

Old thread: Playoff Race Thread

You use the term "unbeaten streak" as opposed to "winning streak", the term unbeaten was used back in the days where there could be a possible tie score to end the game. So let me ask you if unbeaten now means unbeaten in regulation cause if so, then the Leafs are already on a 3-game unbeaten streak, if not, then they are already on a 1-game winning streak.

 

[justafan22]

Worrying about any outcomes save Florida losing are fruitless.

 

[Mess]

You use the term "unbeaten streak" as opposed to "winning streak", the term unbeaten was used back in the days where there could be a possible tie score to end the game. So let me ask you if unbeaten now means unbeaten in regulation cause if so, then the Leafs are already on a 3-game unbeaten streak, if not, then they are already on a 1-game winning streak.

Correct Leafs are on a 1 game winning streak the 1st game of our potential 10 game winning streak currently in progress.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Our Leafs have actually lost 8 of our last 14 games so were not climbing, we're currently hanging on.

They are 6-5-3 with the 3rd worst team save percentage in the league over that time (worst at ES). You're greatly misrepresenting how they've done.

 

[tom leafers]

Our Leafs have been saved via the Campbell trade as we have earned 5 of a possible 6 points which have kept us in the playoff hunt..

Our Leafs have actually lost 8 of our last 14 games so were not climbing, we're currently hanging on.

Every single team currently in a playoff spot in the Eastern conference has a better record in the last 10 games than our Leafs except the NYI's which is the same. That means all teams are gaining not losing ground or at worst break-even in NYI case (but with + 2 games in hand and +4 extra points certainly in the drivers seat).

now seems like a pretty good time for a 5-6 game win streak. Although we have Pittsburgh coming up twice so that will be tough.

Thank-god Florida went on that 4 game bender.

I think we should be aiming for a division spot as opposed to a wildcard so as long as florida lose and we win, im happy

 

[18leafsfan18]

They are 6-5-3 with the 3rd worst team save percentage in the league over that time (worst at ES). You're greatly misrepresenting how they've done.

All too often only half of the story is explained.

 

[Mess]

now seems like a pretty good time for a 5-6 game win streak. Although we have Pittsburgh coming up twice so that will be tough.

Thank-god Florida went on that 4 game bender.

I think we should be aiming for a division spot as opposed to a wildcard so as long as florida lose and we win, im happy

It really seems at the moment that Leafs vs Florida results has the biggest impact on Leafs playoff hopes.

Boston and Tampa are too far ahead of the Leafs so #3 in the Atlantic seems the best road in for Toronto.

Its a hornets nest of teams battling for the wild card spots in the East at present with the Metro Div looking like they may secure both of them when the dust settles and sending 5 teams to the playoffs.

Leafs playing the weakest Div in the East is an added advantage but it might mean the only road in is to finish 3rd and beat out Florida for that spot and be 1 of 3 Atlantic teams to represent the East.

Shaping up if all goes well to a Bos/TB 1st round matchup. But lots of runway ahead before that is a secure outcome. Lets get in first and then worry about whom we might be facing.

 

[X66]

Every single team currently in a playoff spot in the Eastern conference has a better record in the last 10 games than our Leafs except the NYI's which is the same. That means all teams are gaining not losing ground or at worst break-even in NYI case (but with + 2 games in hand and +4 extra points certainly in the drivers seat).

Teams have ups and downs, it's normal.

The point still remains, since Keefe has taken over

4th in points percentage
5th in total points
4th in ROW
5th in goal differential

 

[Dekes For Days]

All too often only half of the story is explained.

Yes, it does seem to be quite frequent...

 

[Mess]

Teams have ups and downs, it's normal.

The point still remains, since Keefe has taken over

4th in points percentage
5th in total points
4th in ROW
5th in goal differential

That is all fine and dandy, but the only thing that matters is what is happening now and what will happen in the games still ahead to determine the playoff teams.

All of those stats are already baked into the current standings as of today and historical facts are written in stone and unchangeable.

They no longer impact future results other then provide hope in the upcoming playoff race still ahead that Leafs can compete and make the playoffs.

Leafs are currently on a downswing and struggling defensively and those are the concerns going forward at present. Campbell trade having stabilized our recent slide with 5 of 6 points earned.

 

[willmma]

If we win 1/3 (33%) of all the remaining games against top 10 teams (9 games: 6 points)
And we win 2/3 (66%) of all remaining games against mid 10 teams (6 games: 8 points)
And we win 3/3 (99%) of all remaining games against bottom 11 teams (9 games: 18 points)

This is what we get

Team	Rank pt%	WIN%
Dallas Stars	8	0.33
Ottawa Senators	29	0.99
Buffalo Sabres	25	0.99
Pittsburgh Penguins	4	0.33
Pittsburgh Penguins	4	0.33
Carolina Hurricanes	11	0.66
Tampa Bay Lightning	2	0.33
Florida Panthers	15	0.66
Vancouver Canucks	13	0.66
San Jose Sharks	27	0.99
Los Angeles Kings	30	0.99
Anaheim Ducks	26	0.99
Tampa Bay Lightning	2	0.33
Nashville Predators	21	0.99
Boston Bruins	1	0.33
New Jersey Devils	28	0.99
New York Islanders	6	0.33
Columbus Blue Jackets	8	0.33
Florida Panthers	15	0.66
Tampa Bay Lightning	2	0.33
Carolina Hurricanes	13	0.66
Ottawa Senators	29	0.99
Washington Capitals	3	0.33
Detroit Red Wings	31	0.99
Montreal Canadiens	20	0.66
Total Wins		16
Earned Points		32

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We end up with 100 points.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs are currently on a downswing and struggling defensively and those are the concerns going forward at present.

Leafs are currently on an upswing with 5 out of their last 6 points, and have not struggled defensively, despite significant injuries; they have had their goaltending struggle.

 

[X66]

That is all fine and dandy, but the only thing that matters is what is happening now and what will happen in the games still ahead to determine the playoff teams.

All of those stats are already baked into the current standings as of today and historical facts are written in stone and unchangeable.

They no longer impact future results other then provide hope in the upcoming playoff race still ahead that Leafs can compete and make the playoffs.

Leafs are currently on a downswing and struggling defensively and those are the concerns going forward at present. Campbell trade having stabilized our recent slide with 5 of 6 points earned.

There is a reason larger sample sizes are better indicator as to how a team will perform moving forward.

You can say the Leafs are on a down swing, but since returning from the all-star break they're 5-2-1

I don't know how long you've been following hockey but things like this are normal. When you look at the Babcock start and all of the Leafs injuries, they're in a good place.

Keefe's team has missed some big chunks of games from

Marner
Johnsson
Moore
Muzzin
Rielly
Mikheyev
Andersen

 

[Mess]

There is a reason larger sample sizes are better indicator as to how a team will perform moving forward.

That might be a feel good position applied towards hope, but its not valid.

Past completed games can't impact future results .. Leafs could have won 10 straight games and nothing would prevent them from losing 10 straight games thereafter because those results are exclusive of each other.

Case in point the Tampa Bay Lightening finished last season with 128 points on the season and then got swept in 4 games in the playoffs to Columbus. Based on past success using an 82 game sample size you should have awarded TB the Cup and not expected a 4 game small sample size but recent events to become a 4 game sweep. During the regular season TB beat Columbus 8-2, 4-0 and 5-1 outscoring them 17-3 .. The #1 overall ranked team getting swept by the WC#2 team that finished 30 points behind them was not projectable using past performance.

Our Leafs have no doubt been hit with a lot of injuries this year but that isn't really a valid excuse either because they're are teams like Pittsburgh who are among the most man games lost and still among the hottest teams in the league, playing without players like Crosby and Malkin during stretches etc.

Columbus let goalie Bob (signed for $10 mil) and team leading scorers Panarin (signed for $11.6 mil) and Duchene (7 year $8 mil contract) walk out the door via free agency and also hit hard by injuries this year and are still 8th overall in the current standings and ahead of our Leafs ... What would be the equivalent Leaf impact say Andersen, Marner and Nylander all leaving with no return, to try and equal the impact that same level of players missing this year?

So what happened to the Leafs in December really doesn't matter anymore today as I mentioned those games are already reflective of getting back into the playoff race and Leafs 68 current points reflect that accurately. You just can't hang your hat of past achievements to accurately predict future events when it comes to sports. Its always about the here and now and what happens going forward.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Since the Islander's point streak at the beginning of the year ended, they are 18th in point percentage.

Leafs are 6th in that time.

If the Leafs had a point streak like they did in October and November only to not be 100% in a playoff position that would be a bigger news story. However that only shows where they rank among the New York based teams and I hope they miss the playoffs.

 

[nsleaf]

That might be a feel good position applied towards hope, but its not valid.

Past completed games can't impact future results .. Leafs could have won 10 straight games and nothing would prevent them from losing 10 straight games thereafter because those results are exclusive of each other.

Case in point the Tampa Bay Lightening finished last season with 128 points on the season and then got swept in 4 games in the playoffs to Columbus. Based on past success using an 82 game sample size you should have awarded TB the Cup and not expected a 4 game small sample size but recent events to become a 4 game sweep. During the regular season TB beat Columbus 8-2, 4-0 and 5-1 outscoring them 17-3 .. The #1 overall ranked team getting swept by the WC#2 team that finished 30 points behind them was not projectable using past performance.

Our Leafs have no doubt been hit with a lot of injuries this year but that isn't really a valid excuse either because they're are teams like Pittsburgh who are among the most man games lost and still among the hottest teams in the league, playing without players like Crosby and Malkin during stretches etc.

Columbus let goalie Bob (signed for $10 mil) and team leading scorers Panarin (signed for $11.6 mil) and Duchene (7 year $8 mil contract) walk out the door via free agency and also hit hard by injuries this year and are still 8th overall in the current standings and ahead of our Leafs ... What would be the equivalent Leaf impact say Andersen, Marner and Nylander all leaving with no return, to try and equal the impact that same level of players missing this year?

So what happened to the Leafs in December really doesn't matter anymore today as I mentioned those games are already reflective of getting back into the playoff race and Leafs 68 current points reflect that accurately. You just can't hang your hat of past achievements to accurately predict future events when it comes to sports. Its always about the here and now and what happens going forward.

 

[18leafsfan18]

That might be a feel good position applied towards hope, but its not valid.

Past completed games can't impact future results .. Leafs could have won 10 straight games and nothing would prevent them from losing 10 straight games thereafter because those results are exclusive of each other.

Case in point the Tampa Bay Lightening finished last season with 128 points on the season and then got swept in 4 games in the playoffs to Columbus. Based on past success using an 82 game sample size you should have awarded TB the Cup and not expected a 4 game small sample size but recent events to become a 4 game sweep. During the regular season TB beat Columbus 8-2, 4-0 and 5-1 outscoring them 17-3 .. The #1 overall ranked team getting swept by the WC#2 team that finished 30 points behind them was not projectable using past performance.

Our Leafs have no doubt been hit with a lot of injuries this year but that isn't really a valid excuse either because they're are teams like Pittsburgh who are among the most man games lost and still among the hottest teams in the league, playing without players like Crosby and Malkin during stretches etc.

Columbus let goalie Bob (signed for $10 mil) and team leading scorers Panarin (signed for $11.6 mil) and Duchene (7 year $8 mil contract) walk out the door via free agency and also hit hard by injuries this year and are still 8th overall in the current standings and ahead of our Leafs ... What would be the equivalent Leaf impact say Andersen, Marner and Nylander all leaving with no return, to try and equal the impact that same level of players missing this year?

So what happened to the Leafs in December really doesn't matter anymore today as I mentioned those games are already reflective of getting back into the playoff race and Leafs 68 current points reflect that accurately. You just can't hang your hat of past achievements to accurately predict future events when it comes to sports. Its always about the here and now and what happens going forward.

You literally just used their last 10 games record to show they are in a down swing.

Another poster shows their last 8 (after the all star break) showing the team has a .688 PTS%

Now you say "Past completed games can't impact future results".

This is exactly what I'm talking about with the stats and takes you have on here.

You nitpick stats specifically to degrade the team's pace and recent play.

Then when proven wrong or shown other stats, you disregard it all together.

Honestly you can't just be honest with both sides of it ? Always on the negative, always nitpicking the stats.