Pre-Game Talk: Playoff Preview: Washington Capitals (1st Metro) v Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd WildCard)

[Menzinger]

Something to think about is the Caps will have an enormous amount of pressure on them - vet filled team with a bunch of ufas coming up this year could be their last best shot at a cup. They're also being overwhelmingly chosen as the favourites to win the series. If Leafs mange to win game 1 or 2 could see a snow/avalanche effect in them mentally.

I doubt that Babcock will do anything dramatic. He might put Leivo on the 4th line line instead of Kap (but I doubt that will even happen).

If it were me, I would consider using Leivo, Kap, and Sosh and just sit Martin and Hyman.

Agreed that's what I'd do too. I don't think the Leafs will win by out muscling a vet caps team - they'll need to rely on skill and putting the puck in the net from every line.

 

[FlareKnight]

Are we just going to spend the entire time complaining about other people? Enough trying to brainwash people. If they don't think the team has a great chance...they are allowed to believe that! Try focusing on being supportive of the team than bashing other people to make yourselves feel better.

The Leafs are the underdogs. This is the literal situation. If the coaching staff is saying that what is the problem with the fanbase? We'd have to be stupid to presume we're the favorites here. And generally speaking the underdogs lose, thus underdogs.

Doesn't mean the Leafs don't stand a chance. So many factors involved there is no telling how it might play out. Caps might get a sweep. The Leafs might win in 6. Or any other number of things might happen. I'm sure as heck hoping the team is going to win and surprise everyone once again.

No one had a problem stating at the start of the year that this was a tough road ahead. Next to no one before Game 1 of the regular season was calling this a playoff team, including the optimists. So what is the problem before Game 1 of the playoffs to consider this team the underdog?

I'm just hoping Zaitsev gets back at some point in the series. But all depends on his health. That's more important. Just have to flip Marchenko into the lineup and work around it.

Game 1 is just big. If the Leafs could grab a win there. That'll make the series interesting in a big hurry.

 

[SprDaVE]

Leivo has been skating as an extra, but I haven't seen Soshnikov listed in any of the practice lines, so I think he may still be injured.

I would say Soshnikov is out for at least the first round. He hasn't skated in a long time and the Leafs have been pretty consistent that a player must skate for a good week before re-entering the lineup.

I suspect it's a concussion or a pretty severe neck/back injury.

 

[Menzinger]

Also anyone catch Babcocks recent media quotes about how the vet Caps players all know what to expect from a playoff game and highlighting the Leafs rookies lack of it. Thats some clear seed planting in the media of how all pressure should be on the Caps.

 

[ACC1224]

Leivo has been skating as an extra, but I haven't seen Soshnikov listed in any of the practice lines, so I think he may still be injured.

Thanks, I had forgotten about Leivo.
He may slot in if Kapanen looks overwhelmed.

 

[wingman75]

This is interesting, and we have seen it in the last stretch of games. We are a left side entry team. And when teams take that away, our PP is complete trash. Look over the last week in general, teams were pushing us away from the left side and our entries were not good at all....

Once we get in the zone, it is a tough PP to stop, but teams have started looking how to prevent the entry.

Now, a really good team would have more than one entry... so I guess we'll see how our boys handle that.

I find it odd he would share that info in an interview

 

[CelticDruid]

Are we just going to spend the entire time complaining about other people? Enough trying to brainwash people. If they don't think the team has a great chance...they are allowed to believe that! Try focusing on being supportive of the team than bashing other people to make yourselves feel better.

The Leafs are the underdogs. This is the literal situation. If the coaching staff is saying that what is the problem with the fanbase? We'd have to be stupid to presume we're the favorites here. And generally speaking the underdogs lose, thus underdogs.

Doesn't mean the Leafs don't stand a chance. So many factors involved there is no telling how it might play out. Caps might get a sweep. The Leafs might win in 6. Or any other number of things might happen. I'm sure as heck hoping the team is going to win and surprise everyone once again.

No one had a problem stating at the start of the year that this was a tough road ahead. Next to no one before Game 1 of the regular season was calling this a playoff team, including the optimists. So what is the problem before Game 1 of the playoffs to consider this team the underdog?

I'm just hoping Zaitsev gets back at some point in the series. But all depends on his health. That's more important. Just have to flip Marchenko into the lineup and work around it.

Game 1 is just big. If the Leafs could grab a win there. That'll make the series interesting in a big hurry.

Agree with this 100%.

 

[Mess]

1st rounds are where most of the upsets by underdogs happen, and every team that is in has some chance.

The Leafs are in the biggest mismatch however as the Caps appear to be the favourites for the Cup.

Freddie could steal and game and Leafs kids and PP could add some excitement

 

[wingman75]

Also anyone catch Babcocks recent media wuotrs about how the vet Coas players all know what to expect from a playoff game and highlighting the Leafs rookies lack of it. Thats some clear seed planting in the media of how all pressure should be on the Caps.

Babs has looked like an expert gardener in every interview I have seen these past three days.

Planting seeds like nobody's business. In almost every sentence, there is a subliminal message to both the Caps and the Leafs. It is fun to watch.

Coach has a real green thumb!

 

[zeke]

here's how the two teams rank overall at different strengths:

gf/a60 = goals for/against per 60
xgf/a60 = expected goals for/against per 60
sh/v% = shooting/save percentage
fsh/v% = fenwick shooting/save percentage
xfsh/sv% = expected shooting/save percentage
pdo = save + shooting percentage
xpdo = expected save + shooting percentage


Numbers from Corsica.hockey, with Score/Venue adjustments.


5v5 Even Strength

Offense

WSH 2.79gf60 (#3), 2.59xgf60 (#11), 9.17sh% (#2), 6.60fsh% (#2), 5.97xfsh% (#14)
TOR 2.61gf60 (#5), 2.86xgf60 (#2), 8.33sh% (#8), 5.75fsh% (#11), 6.26xfsh% (#5)

Both teams with elite offenses. The Leafs seem to produce better offense in terms of chances but the Caps have had better finish - and while the Caps may have earned their "luck" in exceeding their expected shooting percentage with pure skill, by the same token the leafs' pure skill is good enough that their underachieveing shooting percentage is probably a bit lucky.

Defense

WSH 1.73ga60 (#1), 2.35xga60 (#7), 93.73sv% (#1), 95.59fsv% (#1), 93.92xfsv% (#20)
TOR 2.46ga60 (#23), 2.65xga60 (#26), 92.29sv% (#18), 94.57fsv% (#13), 94.12xfsv% (#11)

Washington has been good defensively, but have received outright dominant goaltending at even strength. Leafs have been poor defensively with mediocre goaltending at even strength.

Overall

WSH 61.75gf% (#1), 52.40xgf% (#7), 102.90pdo (#1), 99.90xpdo (#19)
TOR 51.47gf% (#13), 51.87xgf% (#9), 100.62pdo (#12), 100.38xpdo (#3)

The two groups of skaters have arguably performed quite similarly overall at even strength, but with a solid advantage to Washington in shooting percentage, and an even bigger one in goaltending. Based on their expected pdo, it looks like the leafs have been a bit unlucky at even strength given their quality play.


5v4 Power Play

WSH 7.40gf60 (#4), 6.73xgf60 (#7), 14.73sh% (#4), 9.89fsh% (#10), 9.00xfsh% (#16)
TOR 7.46gf60 (#3), 7.50xgf60 (#1), 14.13sg% (#7), 9.98fsh% (#9), 10.03xfsh% (#3)

Both have dominant PPs, though again the leafs seem to be a bit unlucky shooting percentage wise given their raw skill.


4v5 Penalty Kill

WSH 5.16ga60 (#8), 5.24xga60 (#6), 85.52sv% (#26), 90.55fsv% (#20), 90.40xfsv% (#25)
TOR 5.30ga60 (#9), 6.63xga60 (#23), 89.43sv% (#3), 92.64fsv% (#3), 90.80xfsv% (#19)

Both have very solid penalty kills, but in this case the script flips from what it was at even strength - the Leafs have received great goaltending on the PK while the caps' have not. It's really hard to tell if this means anything, but it's an interesting difference from even strength.

 

[Rob Brown]

Lol:

John Shannon: Washington in 5
Eric Engels: Washington in 5
Christine Simpson: Washington in 5
Luke Fox: Washington in 5
Chris Johnston: Washington in 6
Mark Spector: Washington in 4
Gord Stellick: Washington in 5
Jeff Marek: Washington in 4
David Amber: Washington in 5
Sean McIndoe: Washington in 5
Daren Millard: Washington in 5
Ryan Dixon: Washington in 6
Eric Francis: Washington in 5
Rory Boylen: Washington in 5
Doug MacLean: Washington in 5

While I'm totally realistic about our chances, I would absolutely love it if we came out of the series. Would be so beautiful.

 

[PuckMagi]

Lol:

John Shannon: Washington in 5
Eric Engels: Washington in 5
Christine Simpson: Washington in 5
Luke Fox: Washington in 5
Chris Johnston: Washington in 6
Mark Spector: Washington in 4
Gord Stellick: Washington in 5
Jeff Marek: Washington in 4
David Amber: Washington in 5
Sean McIndoe: Washington in 5
Daren Millard: Washington in 5
Ryan Dixon: Washington in 6
Eric Francis: Washington in 5
Rory Boylen: Washington in 5
Doug MacLean: Washington in 5
PuckMagi: Leafs in 5

While I'm totally realistic about our chances, I would absolutely love it if we came out of the series. Would be so beautiful.

Fixed your post.

 

[JonnyMacAwesome]

Lol:

John Shannon: Washington in 5
Eric Engels: Washington in 5
Christine Simpson: Washington in 5
Luke Fox: Washington in 5
Chris Johnston: Washington in 6
Mark Spector: Washington in 4
Gord Stellick: Washington in 5
Jeff Marek: Washington in 4
David Amber: Washington in 5
Sean McIndoe: Washington in 5
Daren Millard: Washington in 5
Ryan Dixon: Washington in 6
Eric Francis: Washington in 5
Rory Boylen: Washington in 5
Doug MacLean: Washington in 5

While I'm totally realistic about our chances, I would absolutely love it if we came out of the series. Would be so beautiful.

So they're saying the Leafs will win eh?

That would be a big Crow buffet if we pull out the wins we need to advance.

 

[Rob Brown]

Fixed your post.

So they're saying the Leafs will win eh?

That would be a big Crow buffet if we pull out the wins we need to advance.

They'd just all pretend that they believed in the Leafs all along.

 

[DopeyFish]

This is interesting, and we have seen it in the last stretch of games. We are a left side entry team. And when teams take that away, our PP is complete trash. Look over the last week in general, teams were pushing us away from the left side and our entries were not good at all....

Once we get in the zone, it is a tough PP to stop, but teams have started looking how to prevent the entry.

Now, a really good team would have more than one entry... so I guess we'll see how our boys handle that.

I find it odd he would share that info in an interview

oh yes

please force us to use the right wing so marner and nylander can do it with ease

 

[Liferleafer]

Lol:

John Shannon: Washington in 5
Eric Engels: Washington in 5
Christine Simpson: Washington in 5
Luke Fox: Washington in 5
Chris Johnston: Washington in 6
Mark Spector: Washington in 4
Gord Stellick: Washington in 5
Jeff Marek: Washington in 4
David Amber: Washington in 5
Sean McIndoe: Washington in 5
Daren Millard: Washington in 5
Ryan Dixon: Washington in 6
Eric Francis: Washington in 5
Rory Boylen: Washington in 5
Doug MacLean: Washington in 5

While I'm totally realistic about our chances, I would absolutely love it if we came out of the series. Would be so beautiful.

Thinks we will win 2 games...idiots...

 

[senor martinez]

It's also interesting because my take on this series is clear: If y'all see the maple leafs able to win 2 games and say caps in 6, etc, then as my rear end sees it its like the maple leafs can win the series, if they can win two games. They can win four, if they can win two.

If y'all see that caps in 4 or 5, then that happens. Leafs can't win anything or one game, but that's that. Caps are better in that scenario vision.

But if y'all think the leafs can win two games, then it's clear to me: They can win four, they have shown then they can do dat dere. Get that two, so it's clear. It'll be interesting and hard.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Something to think about is the Caps will have an enormous amount of pressure on them - vet filled team with a bunch of ufas coming up this year could be their last best shot at a cup. They're also being overwhelmingly chosen as the favourites to win the series. If Leafs mange to win game 1 or 2 could see a snow/avalanche effect in them mentally.



Agreed that's what I'd do too. I don't think the Leafs will win by out muscling a vet caps team - they'll need to rely on skill and putting the puck in the net from every line.

That's what I'm thinking. And the Leafs are team that's good at adjusting on a game to game basis. If rested, I can't see them losing more than 2 in a row. Heck even back to back losses seem tough.

If they can steal a game in Washington, that's huge and should be the first thing. And then focus on winning game 3. If the Leafs can do that, the Caps might start really feeling the pressure.

 

[Muston Atthews]

You're never in trouble until you lose at home. Leafs take game 2

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Let's play a little Overdrive "Yes guy, No guy"

Leafs win game 1.....

 

[Kelly]

really not happy its marty drawing in, the guy is brutal.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

really not happy its marty drawing in, the guy is brutal.

On the bright side I'd rather have him getting crushed by Washington's forecheck for a series than Zaitsev.

On a serious note though, it'll be interesting to see how Babcock uses him. As terrible as he is at moving the puck or making choices under pressure, he's pretty good at disturbing zone entries with his reach. Could force Washington into a chip-and-chase game that Gardiner/Rielly might be able to counter if they're playing at their very best.

 

[Nooodles]

really not happy its marty drawing in, the guy is brutal.

Someone make this gif with Smith please!

 

[WilliamNylander]

Going to need Rielly and Gards both over 25 mins

 

[Polaris1010]

really not happy its marty drawing in, the guy is brutal.

wow ... that WAS really scary ...

perhaps we can use a PG-13 rating for that animation ...

I need a hug.