Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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Comparison of Conn Smythe winner to yearly PA leader
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This system agrees with the actual Conn Smythe selection 16 times in the past 38 years. Not great - but not too bad for a purely statistical system.
Still, there are a lot of close calls. Nine times the system ranks the actual Conn Smythe winner as the 2nd best playoff performer, and six times it ranks the actual winner as the 3rd best playoff performer. From that standpoint, there have only been seven Conn Smythe winners since 1980 who weren't even in the top three.
Sometimes, the difference arises because the best player (per the point allocation system) was on a losing team, which is a tough obstacle to overcome. See Logan Couture (2016), Hendrik Lundqvist (2014), Roberto Luongo (2011), Daniel Alfredsson (2007) and most notably Peter Forsberg (2003) - who was evaluated as that year's top performer despite not even making the Stanley Cup finals.
The least deserving Smythe winners according to this system were Goring (1981 - often questioned), Stevens (2000 - a good pick - the system doesn't read defense as well as it should), Lidstrom (2002 - a victory by committee, with several teammates ranked just above him), Niedermayer (2007 - not bad, but many players were close) and Crosby (2016 - probably a lifetime achievement award).
| Player | Conn Smythe | Point Allocation | Notes |
| 2017-18 | Alex Ovechkin | Evgeny Kuznetsov | Ovechkin ranked 3rd |
| 2016-17 | Sidney Crosby | Jake Guentzel | Crosby ranked 2nd |
| 2015-16 | Sidney Crosby | Logan Couture | Crosby ranked 8th |
| 2014-15 | Duncan Keith | Duncan Keith | -- |
| 2013-14 | Justin Williams | Henrik Lundqvist | Williams ranked 3rd |
| 2012-13 | Patrick Kane | Corey Crawford | Kane ranked 3rd |
| 2011-12 | Jonathan Quick | Jonathan Quick | -- |
| 2010-11 | Tim Thomas | Roberto Luongo | Thomas ranked 2nd |
| 2009-10 | Jonathan Toews | Patrick Kane | Toews ranked 2nd |
| 2008-09 | Evgeni Malkin | Evgeni Malkin | -- |
| 2007-08 | Henrik Zetterberg | Henrik Zetterberg | -- |
| 2006-07 | Scott Niedermayer | Daniel Alfredsson | Niedermayer ranked 11th |
| 2005-06 | Cam Ward | Eric Staal | Ward ranked 2nd |
| 2003-04 | Brad Richards | Brad Richards | -- |
| 2002-03 | Jean-Sebastien Giguere | Jean-Sebastien Giguere | -- |
| 2001-02 | Nicklas Lidstrom | Peter Forsberg* | Lidstrom ranked 7th |
| 2000-01 | Patrick Roy | Joe Sakic* | Roy ranked 2nd |
| 1999-00 | Scott Stevens | Martin Brodeur | Stevens ranked 8th |
| 1998-99 | Joe Nieuwendyk | Ed Belfour* | Nieuwendyk ranked 2nd |
| 1997-98 | Steve Yzerman | Nicklas Lidstrom* | Yzerman ranked 3rd |
| 1996-97 | Mike Vernon | Mike Vernon | -- |
| 1995-96 | Joe Sakic | Joe Sakic* | -- |
| 1994-95 | Claude Lemieux | Martin Brodeur | Lemieux ranked 2nd |
| 1993-94 | Brian Leetch | Brian Leetch* | -- |
| 1992-93 | Patrick Roy | Patrick Roy* | -- |
| 1991-92 | Mario Lemieux | Mario Lemieux* | -- |
| 1990-91 | Mario Lemieux | Mario Lemieux* | -- |
| 1989-90 | Bill Ranford | Craig Simpson | Ranford ranked 3rd |
| 1988-89 | Al MacInnis | Mike Vernon | MacInnis ranked 4th |
| 1987-88 | Wayne Gretzky | Wayne Gretzky* | -- |
| 1986-87 | Ron Hextall | Wayne Gretzky* | Hextall ranked 2nd |
| 1985-86 | Patrick Roy | Patrick Roy* | -- |
| 1984-85 | Wayne Gretzky | Wayne Gretzky* | -- |
| 1983-84 | Mark Messier | Wayne Gretzky* | Messier ranked 5th |
| 1982-83 | Billy Smith | Wayne Gretzky* | Smith ranked 2nd |
| 1981-82 | Mike Bossy | Bryan Trottier* | Bossy ranked 3rd |
| 1980-81 | Butch Goring | Mike Bossy* | Goring ranked 9th |
| 1979-80 | Bryan Trottier | Bryan Trottier* | -- |
This system agrees with the actual Conn Smythe selection 16 times in the past 38 years. Not great - but not too bad for a purely statistical system.
Still, there are a lot of close calls. Nine times the system ranks the actual Conn Smythe winner as the 2nd best playoff performer, and six times it ranks the actual winner as the 3rd best playoff performer. From that standpoint, there have only been seven Conn Smythe winners since 1980 who weren't even in the top three.
Sometimes, the difference arises because the best player (per the point allocation system) was on a losing team, which is a tough obstacle to overcome. See Logan Couture (2016), Hendrik Lundqvist (2014), Roberto Luongo (2011), Daniel Alfredsson (2007) and most notably Peter Forsberg (2003) - who was evaluated as that year's top performer despite not even making the Stanley Cup finals.
The least deserving Smythe winners according to this system were Goring (1981 - often questioned), Stevens (2000 - a good pick - the system doesn't read defense as well as it should), Lidstrom (2002 - a victory by committee, with several teammates ranked just above him), Niedermayer (2007 - not bad, but many players were close) and Crosby (2016 - probably a lifetime achievement award).
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