Speculation: Playoff Lineup

[ACC1224]

Does this mean that B-M-M matches up with the Point line? And if so, do you think they can handle it alright?

Keefe doesn't match lines, it's hard.

 

[sxvnert]

Järnkrok has earned that top spot alongside Matthews but for reasons.....

 

[LeafLoyalist]

Keefe doesn't match lines, it's hard.

Huh?? Coaching is ALL about matching lines in game. Not sure what you mean is hard, coaches primary job is to match lines.

 

[notbias]

Keefe doesn't match lines, it's hard.

Source? Was it the quote about him not being worried about line matching that everyone blew out of proportion?

 

[IPS]

Source? Was it the quote about him not being worried about line matching that everyone blew out of proportion?

I think he's referring to the Montreal series where Keefe made zero effort to get Matthews away from the Danault line.

 

[notbias]

I think he's referring to the Montreal series where Keefe made zero effort to get Matthews away from the Danault line.

I doubt he is referring to that series, he is smarter than that.

Matthews' line dominated Danault's.

Price just dominated them.

 

[CDN24]

Keefe doesn't match lines, it's hard.

But Cooper does

 

[CDN24]

I doubt he is referring to that series, he is smarter than that.

Matthews' line dominated Danault's.

Price just dominated them.

No Danault's line limited Matthew's line enough to win. They did the same against vegas. neither Keefe or Deboer made any effort to get their stars away from danault. Then game 1 of the Tampa series, Cooper does everything to avoid that matchup- plays his big liner against Suzuki which had the double benefit of forcing Mtls best offensive players to play D and chase all night and get them away from Danault.

On paper the Leafs are probably significantly better than Tampa but Cooper>>>>>>Keefe. That plus if Vasi steals a couple - ouch

 

[notbias]

No Danault's line limited Matthew's line enough to win. They did the same against vegas. neither Keefe or Deboer made any effort to get their stars away from danault. Then game 1 of the Tampa series, Cooper does everything to avoid that matchup- plays his big liner against Suzuki which had the double benefit of forcing Mtls best offensive players to play D and chase all night and get them away from Danault.

On paper the Leafs are probably significantly better than Tampa but Cooper>>>>>>Keefe. That plus if Vasi steals a couple - ouch

If a line generates a ton of high-quality scoring chances but doesn't score, who is doing their job to keep the puck out of the net? The goalie or the players?

 

[therealkoho]

Which 20 do you see Keefe dressing for Game 1?

Assuming 12 - 6, I see.......

Forwards
Matthews Marner Tavares ROR
Nylander Jarnkrok Bunting Kerfoot
Acciari ZAR Kampf Lafferty

Defense
Brodie McCabe
Rielly Schenn
Giordano Holl

Samsonov
Woll

Bang on, I'd say

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the record, Matthews was matched up against Danault for only about 56-57% of his ES time in that Montreal series.
The Matthews line also dominated the Danault line, and the Tavares injury kind of took away some alternative matchup options.
It's amazing how some people can take a comment from years ago about how Montreal was the one who had to be more concerned with matching up with our lines, and twist it into some weird belief that Keefe doesn't care or think about who he's sending lines out against.

 

[therealkoho]

I can't wait to re play all those past games, who cares about today

 

[The Masters]

ROR centering JT and Nylander

 

[frizzer1]

This will never happen but…
Bunting. Matthews Nylander
Jamkrok Tavares Marner
Kerfoot ROR acciardi
Zar Kampf lafferty

Mcabe Brodiie
Reilly schenn
Gio liljegrin

 

[Jojalu]

This will never happen but…
Bunting. Matthews Nylander
Jamkrok Tavares Marner
Kerfoot ROR acciardi
Zar Kampf lafferty

Mcabe Brodiie
Reilly schenn
Gio liljegrin

That might be the lineup if they get to Bos. Probably with Willy and Marner switchef

 

[TakeTheBody]

I prefer Lilly over Schenn

On the road when we have do not have last change I want ROR on the third line. At home with last change, stack the first two lines.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Tmo I see a Keefe's Blender Special:

ROR Matthews Nylander
Bunting Tavares Marner
Knies Kampf Lafferty
ZAR Acciari Kerfoot

Rielly Brodie
Giordano Holl
McCabe Schenn

Samsonov
Woll

 

[Macallan18]

I saw them both. One timely goal (his only point in 15 games!) doesn't make him a second pair defenseman. Mashing guys and giving the puck right back accomplishes nothing. He's constantly getting hemmed in his own zone and contributes negatively in the other two zones.

Schenn 5v5 has: 42% CF%. 43.6% FF%. 45.5% GF%. 46.5% xGF%. Those ratios are all propped up on the offensive side by playing with top tier forwards; his defensive numbers are crap. Only Gustafsson has worse and he is getting scratched for good reason. And you'll never guess who's second worst of the regular D... hint, it's his D partner. If you're that convinced he's a great physical D then at least stick him on the third pair like when we had Bogosian (who was twice the player and actually could play within his limits).

It's genuinely baffling what Keefe sees with this pairing. It was a funny retro joke experiment for a game or two but should have been tossed in the trash immediately after that.

Agreed. It must be some psychological plan in terms of "toughness" to uplift our team?
It sure isn't for the mediocre play on ice.

 

[The Iceman]

Liljegren's play over the past month+ has Holl and Schenn in the lineup, not loyalty.

He simply hasn't been good enough.

For Game 1 it's the correct call.

YUP, and Lily is a great option to have as a 7th guy.

 

[Zybalto]

If a line generates a ton of high-quality scoring chances but doesn't score, who is doing their job to keep the puck out of the net? The goalie or the players?

Its a crazy narrative that will never go away for some reason. Everyone acknowledges Price was the teams MVP against us and he used up what was left of his career to help carry that team to the finals and another part of the problem is that Danault was much better the rest of the playoffs as well. The eye test confirmed it as Price was absolutely stoning the top line on breakaways, odd man rushes and the occasional help from his best friends the posts. The stat line is very telling.

Danaults vs. the Leafs 5v5 and ranking among all other 43 forwards with 100+ minutes in the month of May that playoffs(for simplicity's sake),

Shots against/60: 37.8 (39th best out of 43)
Scoring Chances Against/60: 35.87 (40th best out of 43)
High Danger Chances Against/60: 12.97 (41st best out of 43)
xGA/60: 3.23 (40th best out of 43)

Overall:
Shot differential: 40.10 (39th best out of 43)
xGF%: 34.80 (42nd best out of 43)
Goal differential: 0.00 (43rd best out of 43)

Some other telling stats:

Only forward to not be on for a goal scored for his team.
Giveaways: 2nd highest of all forwards
His line that was together all season and considered one of the best in hockey broken up after a game 5 win.


Danault defensively the rest of the way against the Jets/Knights/Bolts:

Shots against/60: 27.69
Scoring Chances Against/60: 26.6
High Danger Chances Against/60: 10.96
xGA/60: 2.22

Overall:
Shot differential: 52.13
xGF%: 55.56
Goal differential: 57.03


I hope Samsonov has it in him to pull a Price this season for us. Would be nice to have a goalie steal games for us for once.

 

[notbias]

Its a crazy narrative that will never go away for some reason.

People with a motive need a talking point when they lack one.

 

[QJo]

Hmmm the line that was working at the end of the season before Keefe just canned it for the playoffs. Hmmm

I can't tell if Keefe overthinks or underthinks.

 

[Bloomberg]

Jarnkrok - Matthews - Acciari
Knies - Tavares - Marner
Lafferty - ORielly - Nylander
ZAK - Kampf - Kerfoot

I think the bolded should stay together, the unbolded can be changed.

I'd swap Holl and Lilgren, but Keefe loves Holl, so...

 

[mapleleafs34]

If Knies is in & Bunting is suspended I think they're definitely going with this top 6:
Jarnkrok-Matthews-Marner
Knies-O'Reilly-Nylander

Bottom 6 SHOULD be:
Tavares-Acciari-Lafferty
Kerfoot-Kampf-ZAR