Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
- 13,676
- 1,454
We are discussing the playoffs in almost every thread, so maybe we should combine it into one that will discuss 1) if we'll do well; 2) which teams we want to face; 3) personnel issues (who should play, whose injury may last into the playoffs, etc).
Anyway, here's why I think the Rangers will do well in the playoffs.
1. EXPERIENCE: The last 3 seasons they won more playoff series than any other Eastern Conference team, and are only behind the LA Kings in the league. Any player or coach will tell you that experience matters because inexperienced players get overwhelmed when they get deep into the playoffs.
2. ENERGY: Because of extended injuries to key players including Lundqvist, Stepan, St. Louis, McDonagh, Boyle, Klein, the Rangers will be less tired than usual heading into the playoffs.
3. GOALTENDING IS KEY: Historically, teams with superstar (or hot) goaltending tended to do well in the playoffs. Lundqvist has had a .926 SV% in the playoffs in his career, which rises to .958 SV% in games when the Rangers can be eliminated and .965 SV% in Game 7s that he played in.
4. TOUGH TO ELIMINATE: In Game 7s since Lundqvist joined the Rangers, they won 5 of 6. Even when the Rangers face a possible elimination against a superior team (aka one that's leading the series), they still won 60% of the games in the Lundqvist Era. Even without offense, the Rangers were always very difficult to eliminate.
5. DEFENSE: Defense wins in the playoffs and the Rangers are tied for second in the NHL in goals against, only 4 goals behind the league lead.
6. OFFENSE: The Rangers lacked offense tremendously in the Lundqvist Era, particularly compared to playoff teams. Last year, they were #18 in the league, meaning they were not even playoff-level offensively. The 2 years before, they were #12 and #13, still below average for a playoff team. They were the third-worst Eastern playoff team in GF in 2012 and 2013, and were the second-worst last season. They still managed to win 6 playoff rounds in those 3 seasons. This year the Rangers are top-5 in offense, while their Goals Against are even better than before (top-3).
ANSWERING SOME CONCERNS:
A. SUSTAINABILITY: While some people will cite that a few players like Nash overperformed, the truth is that the Rangers kept on winning one way or the other even with their top-3 offensive threats Nash, Stepan and St. Louis either cold or injured. Furthermore, the team just added Yandle, so the cooling off by some players will be made up at least in part by his additional offense.
B. LOW POSSESSION NUMBERS: For one, when a team is always leading, this is likely to happen. What do you see happening in the third period of every game? A team that is up is just dumping out the puck, while the team that is down is running around with the puck trying to create something. Obviously playing like this in the vast majority of games for a third of the game drives down your possession, Corsi and Fenwick numbers. Two, the Rangers are a forechecking team which means they rely less on the Soviet-style opportunity creation via puck possession, and more on sending in Hagelin, Kreider, etc to cause turnovers followed by quick scoring chances.
C. HIGH SCORING PERCENTAGE: The Rangers are arguably the fastest team in the NHL and definitely among the fastest. Sending out Kreider or Nash or anyone on a breakaway or another type of fastbreak (or a forecheck turnover) will produce a higher scoring percentage than circling around in the offense for two minutes as you shoot several times hoping to get lucky one of these times.
Anyway, here's why I think the Rangers will do well in the playoffs.
1. EXPERIENCE: The last 3 seasons they won more playoff series than any other Eastern Conference team, and are only behind the LA Kings in the league. Any player or coach will tell you that experience matters because inexperienced players get overwhelmed when they get deep into the playoffs.
2. ENERGY: Because of extended injuries to key players including Lundqvist, Stepan, St. Louis, McDonagh, Boyle, Klein, the Rangers will be less tired than usual heading into the playoffs.
3. GOALTENDING IS KEY: Historically, teams with superstar (or hot) goaltending tended to do well in the playoffs. Lundqvist has had a .926 SV% in the playoffs in his career, which rises to .958 SV% in games when the Rangers can be eliminated and .965 SV% in Game 7s that he played in.
4. TOUGH TO ELIMINATE: In Game 7s since Lundqvist joined the Rangers, they won 5 of 6. Even when the Rangers face a possible elimination against a superior team (aka one that's leading the series), they still won 60% of the games in the Lundqvist Era. Even without offense, the Rangers were always very difficult to eliminate.
5. DEFENSE: Defense wins in the playoffs and the Rangers are tied for second in the NHL in goals against, only 4 goals behind the league lead.
6. OFFENSE: The Rangers lacked offense tremendously in the Lundqvist Era, particularly compared to playoff teams. Last year, they were #18 in the league, meaning they were not even playoff-level offensively. The 2 years before, they were #12 and #13, still below average for a playoff team. They were the third-worst Eastern playoff team in GF in 2012 and 2013, and were the second-worst last season. They still managed to win 6 playoff rounds in those 3 seasons. This year the Rangers are top-5 in offense, while their Goals Against are even better than before (top-3).
ANSWERING SOME CONCERNS:
A. SUSTAINABILITY: While some people will cite that a few players like Nash overperformed, the truth is that the Rangers kept on winning one way or the other even with their top-3 offensive threats Nash, Stepan and St. Louis either cold or injured. Furthermore, the team just added Yandle, so the cooling off by some players will be made up at least in part by his additional offense.
B. LOW POSSESSION NUMBERS: For one, when a team is always leading, this is likely to happen. What do you see happening in the third period of every game? A team that is up is just dumping out the puck, while the team that is down is running around with the puck trying to create something. Obviously playing like this in the vast majority of games for a third of the game drives down your possession, Corsi and Fenwick numbers. Two, the Rangers are a forechecking team which means they rely less on the Soviet-style opportunity creation via puck possession, and more on sending in Hagelin, Kreider, etc to cause turnovers followed by quick scoring chances.
C. HIGH SCORING PERCENTAGE: The Rangers are arguably the fastest team in the NHL and definitely among the fastest. Sending out Kreider or Nash or anyone on a breakaway or another type of fastbreak (or a forecheck turnover) will produce a higher scoring percentage than circling around in the offense for two minutes as you shoot several times hoping to get lucky one of these times.
