RapidKnight
Registered User
- Dec 29, 2021
- 994
- 563
5v5 p/60 when trailing / all situations (Top 100 players in PPG) last 3 seasons:
I don’t think these stats are completely the result of statistical variance. Almost all defenses are more stingy when they’re defending a lead. To support the validity of the data here are some of the trends I’ve noticed:
Trailing | All | |||
Hyman | 2.73 | 1.97 | +39% | |
O’Reilly | 2.70 | 1.94 | +39% | |
Perron | 2.48 | 1.78 | +39% | |
Duchene | 2.78 | 2.09 | +33% | |
Hischier | 2.62 | 2.03 | +29% | |
Norris | 2.17 | 1.69 | +28% | |
Zuccarello | 2.97 | 2.33 | +27% | |
Robertson | 3.56 | 2.82 | +26% | |
Ehlers | 3.23 | 2.59 | +25% | |
Thomas | 3.20 | 2.58 | +24% | |
Ovechkin | 2.93 | 2.38 | +23% | |
Aho | 2.79 | 2.28 | +22% | |
Backstrom | 2.06 | 1.69 | +22% | |
Schenn | 2.19 | 1.84 | +19% | |
Tarasenko | 3.24 | 2.76 | +17% | |
Raymond | 2.00 | 1.74 | +15% | |
Malkin | 3.06 | 2.69 | +14% | |
Fiala | 3.03 | 2.66 | +14% | |
Keller | 2.32 | 2.03 | +14% | |
Forsberg | 2.64 | 2.34 | +13% | |
Thompson | 2.40 | 2.14 | +12% | |
Kyrou | 2.84 | 2.57 | +11% | |
Svechnikov | 2.34 | 2.10 | +11% | |
Voracek | 2.31 | 2.09 | +11% | |
Kopitar | 1.91 | 1.73 | +10% | |
Huberdeau | 2.93 | 2.7 | +9% | |
Bratt | 2.65 | 2.44 | +9% | |
Guentzel | 2.61 | 2.39 | +9% | |
Konecny | 2.40 | 2.21 | +9% | |
Trocheck | 2.06 | 1.91 | +8% | |
Hintz | 2.11 | 1.98 | +7% | |
RNH | 1.77 | 1.65 | +7% | |
Reinhart | 2.09 | 1.98 | +6% | |
Teravainen | 2.03 | 1.92 | +6% | |
B. Tkachuk | 1.99 | 1.88 | +6% | |
Eichel | 1.88 | 1.77 | +6% | |
Kadri | 2.54 | 2.43 | +5% | |
Couturier* | 2.39 | 2.28 | +5% | |
Bergeron | 2.36 | 2.24 | +5% | |
Kuznetsov | 2.23 | 2.13 | +5% | |
Pavelski | 1.94 | 1.84 | +5% | |
Kaprizov | 3.13 | 3.00 | +4% | |
Meier | 2.39 | 2.30 | +4% | |
Strome | 2.05 | 1.97 | +4% | |
Batherson | 1.74 | 1.68 | +4% | |
Panarin | 3.03 | 2.93 | +3% | |
Matthews | 2.99 | 2.91 | +3% | |
Rust | 2.08 | 2.02 | +3% | |
McDavid | 3.04 | 2.96 | +2% | |
Laine | 2.00 | 1.97 | +2% | |
Pastrnak | 2.72 | 2.70 | +1% | |
Barkov | 2.52 | 2.49 | +1% | |
Zegras | 2.27 | 2.24 | +1% | |
Schmaltz | 2.27 | 2.26 | 0% | |
Lindholm | 2.14 | 2.13 | 0% | |
Marchand | 3.00 | 3.02 | -1% | |
Scheifele | 2.17 | 2.19 | -1% | |
Marchessault | 2.03 | 2.06 | -1% | |
Burakovsky | 2.53 | 2.58 | -2% | |
Tavares | 1.99 | 2.03 | -2% | |
Hall | 1.96 | 2.03 | -3% | |
Marner | 2.81 | 2.94 | -4% | |
Nelson | 1.94 | 2.03 | -4% | |
Stamkos | 2.62 | 2.77 | -5% | |
Wheeler | 1.85 | 1.94 | -5% | |
Bunting | 2.74 | 2.93 | -6% | |
Nylander | 2.10 | 2.24 | -6% | |
Landeskog | 2.04 | 2.16 | -6% | |
M. Tkachuk | 2.32 | 2.49 | -7% | |
Draisaitl | 2.47 | 2.68 | -8% | |
Buchnevich | 2.15 | 2.38 | -10% | |
Krejci* | 1.81 | 2.02 | -10% | |
Giroux | 1.70 | 1.89 | -10% | |
Kreider | 1.66 | 1.85 | -10% | |
MacKinnon | 2.56 | 2.87 | -11% | |
Vrana | 2.42 | 2.71 | -11% | |
Barzal | 1.95 | 2.20 | -11% | |
Bertuzzi | 1.75 | 1.96 | -11% | |
P. Kane | 2.11 | 2.39 | -12% | |
Hertl | 1.85 | 2.11 | -12% | |
Kucherov | 2.60 | 2.99 | -13% | |
Zibanejad | 2.04 | 2.35 | -13% | |
Bjorkstrand | 1.82 | 2.08 | -13% | |
Rantanen | 2.06 | 2.39 | -14% | |
DeBrincat | 1.65 | 1.91 | -14% | |
Boeser | 1.49 | 1.73 | -14% | |
Duclair | 1.93 | 2.26 | -15% | |
Gaudreau | 2.14 | 2.58 | -17% | |
Larkin | 1.63 | 1.97 | -17% | |
Miller | 1.89 | 2.31 | -18% | |
Point | 1.84 | 2.27 | -19% | |
Connor | 1.66 | 2.22 | -25% | |
Crosby | 1.65 | 2.20 | -25% | |
Horvat | 1.18 | 1.60 | -26% | |
Stone | 1.93 | 2.66 | -27% | |
Pacioretty | 1.75 | 2.51 | -30% | |
Pettersson | 1.49 | 2.12 | -30% | |
Toffoli | 1.26 | 1.81 | -30% | |
E. Kane | 1.32 | 1.91 | -31% |
I don’t think these stats are completely the result of statistical variance. Almost all defenses are more stingy when they’re defending a lead. To support the validity of the data here are some of the trends I’ve noticed:
- Forwards who are better on the rush tend to struggle more going up against structured defenses.
- Forwards who have poor one-timers generally struggle to score goals against structured defenses. Their one timers may be weak or inaccurate. Some volume shooters increase their shot volume jeopardizing their linemates’ production.
- Defensively focused players are often able to find another gear in their game when needed. (Minor difference)
- I can’t help but think some players throw in the towel especially when reading the bottom of the list.
Patient players/lines tend to do better under these circumstances than players/lines who succeed from shot volume and effort. Efficient shooters tend to thrive.
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