Players who struggle or thrive when trailing

[RapidKnight]

5v5 p/60 when trailing / all situations (Top 100 players in PPG) last 3 seasons:

	Trailing	All
Hyman	2.73	1.97	+39%
O’Reilly	2.70	1.94	+39%
Perron	2.48	1.78	+39%
Duchene	2.78	2.09	+33%
Hischier	2.62	2.03	+29%
Norris	2.17	1.69	+28%
Zuccarello	2.97	2.33	+27%
Robertson	3.56	2.82	+26%
Ehlers	3.23	2.59	+25%
Thomas	3.20	2.58	+24%
Ovechkin	2.93	2.38	+23%
Aho	2.79	2.28	+22%
Backstrom	2.06	1.69	+22%
Schenn	2.19	1.84	+19%
Tarasenko	3.24	2.76	+17%
Raymond	2.00	1.74	+15%
Malkin	3.06	2.69	+14%
Fiala	3.03	2.66	+14%
Keller	2.32	2.03	+14%
Forsberg	2.64	2.34	+13%
Thompson	2.40	2.14	+12%
Kyrou	2.84	2.57	+11%
Svechnikov	2.34	2.10	+11%
Voracek	2.31	2.09	+11%
Kopitar	1.91	1.73	+10%
Huberdeau	2.93	2.7	+9%
Bratt	2.65	2.44	+9%
Guentzel	2.61	2.39	+9%
Konecny	2.40	2.21	+9%
Trocheck	2.06	1.91	+8%
Hintz	2.11	1.98	+7%
RNH	1.77	1.65	+7%
Reinhart	2.09	1.98	+6%
Teravainen	2.03	1.92	+6%
B. Tkachuk	1.99	1.88	+6%
Eichel	1.88	1.77	+6%
Kadri	2.54	2.43	+5%
Couturier*	2.39	2.28	+5%
Bergeron	2.36	2.24	+5%
Kuznetsov	2.23	2.13	+5%
Pavelski	1.94	1.84	+5%
Kaprizov	3.13	3.00	+4%
Meier	2.39	2.30	+4%
Strome	2.05	1.97	+4%
Batherson	1.74	1.68	+4%
Panarin	3.03	2.93	+3%
Matthews	2.99	2.91	+3%
Rust	2.08	2.02	+3%
McDavid	3.04	2.96	+2%
Laine	2.00	1.97	+2%
Pastrnak	2.72	2.70	+1%
Barkov	2.52	2.49	+1%
Zegras	2.27	2.24	+1%
Schmaltz	2.27	2.26	0%
Lindholm	2.14	2.13	0%
Marchand	3.00	3.02	-1%
Scheifele	2.17	2.19	-1%
Marchessault	2.03	2.06	-1%
Burakovsky	2.53	2.58	-2%
Tavares	1.99	2.03	-2%
Hall	1.96	2.03	-3%
Marner	2.81	2.94	-4%
Nelson	1.94	2.03	-4%
Stamkos	2.62	2.77	-5%
Wheeler	1.85	1.94	-5%
Bunting	2.74	2.93	-6%
Nylander	2.10	2.24	-6%
Landeskog	2.04	2.16	-6%
M. Tkachuk	2.32	2.49	-7%
Draisaitl	2.47	2.68	-8%
Buchnevich	2.15	2.38	-10%
Krejci*	1.81	2.02	-10%
Giroux	1.70	1.89	-10%
Kreider	1.66	1.85	-10%
MacKinnon	2.56	2.87	-11%
Vrana	2.42	2.71	-11%
Barzal	1.95	2.20	-11%
Bertuzzi	1.75	1.96	-11%
P. Kane	2.11	2.39	-12%
Hertl	1.85	2.11	-12%
Kucherov	2.60	2.99	-13%
Zibanejad	2.04	2.35	-13%
Bjorkstrand	1.82	2.08	-13%
Rantanen	2.06	2.39	-14%
DeBrincat	1.65	1.91	-14%
Boeser	1.49	1.73	-14%
Duclair	1.93	2.26	-15%
Gaudreau	2.14	2.58	-17%
Larkin	1.63	1.97	-17%
Miller	1.89	2.31	-18%
Point	1.84	2.27	-19%
Connor	1.66	2.22	-25%
Crosby	1.65	2.20	-25%
Horvat	1.18	1.60	-26%
Stone	1.93	2.66	-27%
Pacioretty	1.75	2.51	-30%
Pettersson	1.49	2.12	-30%
Toffoli	1.26	1.81	-30%
E. Kane	1.32	1.91	-31%

I don’t think these stats are completely the result of statistical variance. Almost all defenses are more stingy when they’re defending a lead. To support the validity of the data here are some of the trends I’ve noticed:

1. Forwards who are better on the rush tend to struggle more going up against structured defenses.
2. Forwards who have poor one-timers generally struggle to score goals against structured defenses. Their one timers may be weak or inaccurate. Some volume shooters increase their shot volume jeopardizing their linemates’ production.
3. Defensively focused players are often able to find another gear in their game when needed. (Minor difference)
4. I can’t help but think some players throw in the towel especially when reading the bottom of the list.
5. Patient players/lines tend to do better under these circumstances than players/lines who succeed from shot volume and effort. Efficient shooters tend to thrive.

Apologies if you don’t think these numbers belong here.

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[overpass]

Cool idea, thanks for posting!

Interesting discussion about the trends. Is there any correlation between PP performance and scoring more at EV when trailing? There would seem to be some overlap in the skills required.

 

[RapidKnight]

Cool idea, thanks for posting!

Interesting discussion about the trends. Is there any correlation between PP performance and scoring more at EV when trailing? There would seem to be some overlap in the skills required.

It’s so difficult to assess powerplay performance, shooting percentages vary by role, xGoals and shots are too easy to accumulate to be a good measure of success, and shot volume can be a confounding variable in raw points.

That being said, based on the data I’ve seen I’d say there’s a correlation in finishing decline in both situations at the very least, but powerplay finishing is a slippery slope because of the role thing.

 

[jonmonohand]

This is fascinating

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think some of the players high on this list may see more OZ starts while their team is trailing, and are used for more DZ starts while leading. You'd want to screen that for co-linearity.

I don’t think these stats are completely the result of statistical variance. Almost all defenses are more stingy when they’re defending a lead. To support the validity of the data here are some of the trends I’ve noticed:

1. Forwards who are better on the rush tend to struggle more going up against structured defenses.
2. Forwards who have poor one-timers generally struggle to score goals against structured defenses. Their one timers may be weak or inaccurate. Some volume shooters increase their shot volume jeopardizing their linemates’ production.
3. Defensively focused players are often able to find another gear in their game when needed. (Minor difference)
4. I can’t help but think some players throw in the towel especially when reading the bottom of the list.
5. Patient players/lines tend to do better under these circumstances than players/lines who succeed from shot volume and effort. Efficient shooters tend to thrive.

Apologies if you don’t think these numbers belong here.