Players rated by statistical algorithm

[HamiltonNHL]

#258 Jamie Benn ?

 

[Grazzy]

Out of curiosity, I took a look at Vancouver and found out that H. Sedin was #23 (which seems close) and that D. Sedin was #544. I think there's a problem there.

 

[Doctor No]

One of the flaws in this methodology (and all methodologies do have flaws) is that it it appears to be impossible to trace "why". Why is Jamie Benn so low? Why are Henrik and Daniel Sedin so far apart?

What I'd recommend in this specific case is to take a non-intuitive result (the Sedins would be where I'd start) and go through the model, looking at (and documenting) each instance of where Henrik and Daniel change rankings (relative to one another). If I'm understanding correctly, it would only occur when precisely one of them is on the ice.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Explanations

One of the flaws in this methodology (and all methodologies do have flaws) is that it it appears to be impossible to trace "why". Why is Jamie Benn so low? Why are Henrik and Daniel Sedin so far apart?

What I'd recommend in this specific case is to take a non-intuitive result (the Sedins would be where I'd start) and go through the model, looking at (and documenting) each instance of where Henrik and Daniel change rankings (relative to one another). If I'm understanding correctly, it would only occur when precisely one of them is on the ice.

True but the Sedin and Benn examples point to a positional situation especially when Benn is factored in.

Centers like Henrik Sedin and Tyler Seguin face other centers who collectively are much better players than the wingers that their linemates - Daniel Sedin and Jamie Benn face. The defenceman and goalies plus the other side wingers are a wash.
This may explain the Henrik/Daniel gap and the Seguin/Benn gap.

Re Alex Ovechkin. How are "Hits" factored into the algorithm?

 

[Pek]

One of the flaws in this methodology (and all methodologies do have flaws) is that it it appears to be impossible to trace "why".
Why is Jamie Benn so low? Why are Henrik and Daniel Sedin so far apart?

It's not totally impossible... I think I know what is going on here.

Sedins:
Here are simple even strength on ice statistics for Sedins since 2011-2012 season.

            type     Sedin   Minus  Plus  Plus_pct
1:         Goal     Both       122   187      0.61
2:         Goal     Daniel      31     20      0.39
3:         Goal     Henrik      27     41      0.60
4: Shot on-goal  Both      1551 2029      0.57
5: Shot on-goal  Daniel     305   267      0.47
6: Shot on-goal  Henrik     401   370      0.48

It looks like they do complete each other but Daniel is hurt more from Henrik's absence than other way around.
This seems to be why the difference was caused in the first place. And as explained it's hard for the model to adjust this difference anymore if there is not enough separate ice time.

Jamie Benn:
2012-2013 season was hard for Jamie Benn and since then he has been playing with Tyler Seguin (2013-2014: rank 5, 2014-2015: 14, 2015-2016, 19 so far) all the time. So there is probably the "Sedin" effect again. Even if Jamie Benn has improved since 2012-2013 he has to push Seguin above him. This will make JB's performance low (because the model thinks the good results come mostly because of Seguin) and his rating to improve slower than it should.

If I'm understanding correctly, it would only occur when precisely one of them is on the ice.

Correct.
I think this would be a good idea... in a kind of world where lines were mixed daily

 

[Pek]

How are "Hits" factored into the algorithm?

They are ignored.

 

[Doctor No]

It's not totally impossible... I think I know what is going on here.

I didn't say that it was impossible. I said that it hasn't been explained appropriately.

 

[Doctor No]

True but the Sedin and Benn examples point to a positional situation especially when Benn is factored in.

Nevertheless, my point stands - as presented currently, there's no way to trace through the reasons why the Sedins are so far apart from one another.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Why?

They are ignored.

This really hurts certain players. Suggest looking at the records of opposing RHS defencemen, Karlsson, Subban etc, vs Ovechkin and the Capitals last two seasons.
His aggressive forecheck and hitting severely impacts their ability to transition the puck or skate it up ice. True for other physical forwards as well.

 

[Stand Witness]

This really hurts certain players. Suggest looking at the records of opposing RHS defencemen, Karlsson, Subban etc, vs Ovechkin and the Capitals last two seasons.
His aggressive forecheck and hitting severely impacts their ability to transition the puck or skate it up ice. True for other physical forwards as well.

Hits are the most inconsistent reported stat in the league. Whats recorded as a hit in one arena isn't the same as another.

 

[Canadiens1958]

So?

Hits are the most inconsistent reported stat in the league. Whats recorded as a hit in one arena isn't the same as another.

The suggestion was to compare the performance of RHS defencemen against a physically aggressive(hitting) Ovechkin who has prime responsibility for RHS d-men when he is on the ice.

How "hits" are recorded league wide does not matter in such comparables. Just the consequences goals, assists, passes and other measurables like puck possession that are measured uniformally.

 

[Doctor No]

How the recording of hits varies from building to building definitely matters - to present an extreme example, if Building A only counts "impactful hits" as "hits", while Building B counts all hits as "hits", then you're going to reach a skewed conclusion as to the true value of things leading from a hit.

However, these biases can be corrected for, so it's not a dead-end by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Hits

How the recording of hits varies from building to building definitely matters - to present an extreme example, if Building A only counts "impactful hits" as "hits", while Building B counts all hits as "hits", then you're going to reach a skewed conclusion as to the true value of things leading from a hit.

However, these biases can be corrected for, so it's not a dead-end by any stretch of the imagination.

Exactly.Globally the difference seems to be one of interpretation. Incidental contact being the prime example where the intent to hit may not be easily attributed.

Point with Ovechkin is that the opposition recognizes that he is out there intending to hit and adjusts accordingly. How this intent to hit is recorded does not change how the opposition plays.

Same as SOGs. Some buildings may omit shots(clearing or on goal icings) from beyond the blue line or red line but goalies still play the puck as if the SOG will be counted.

 

[triggrman]

Hodgson is the 2nd highest rated Preds player, over Forsberg, Josi, Ribeiro, Weber, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, etc. Ekholm is rated over Weber, Josi is one of the lowest rated players on the team.....

It's really bad for the Predators players.