Speculation: Players earning their money in the final contract years

[BurgoShark]

A lot of the HF conversations are about players whose contracts are a burden in the final years.

Excluding Alfredsson / Hossa type deals where the money dips to a really small amount in the final year(s), and excluding genuine superstars (Ovechkin, Crosby) .... what players on longer term (6+ year) contracts have been paid at or below their worth in the latter years of their deal?

Niklas Backstrom seems like a good modern example. What are the others? Let's say in the last 20 years.

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[Freudian]

Chara seems to have provided good value on his contracts. Marc-Andre Fleury has held up well.

 

[780il]

Idk if this counts but Leon Draisaitl's contract was largely thought to be an overpay when it was signed. Rn it looks like it's gonna be a huge steal moving forward.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Wheeler
Bergeron
Pavelski
Seguin

 

[93LEAFS]

Mid-tier guys rarely do, and I'm struggling to think of an example. Joe Thornton has earned his money pretty much every year of his deal. You should also probably look exclusively at guys who signed when they had upcoming UFA status. For example, guys like Tavares, Seguin, and Stamkos fully lived up to the deals they got as RFA's. Paying your young players at 21 or so, rarely results in an overpay. It's the paying of non-elite talents at 27 to 30 for 5 or 6 years that generally ends in disaster.

 

[780il]

Mid-tier guys rarely do, and I'm struggling to think of an example. Joe Thorton has earned his money pretty much every year of his deal. You should also probably look exclusively at guys who signed when they had upcoming UFA status. For example, guys like Tavares, Seguin, and Stamkos fully lived up to the deals they got as RFA's. Paying your young players at 21 or so, rarely results in an overpay. It's the paying of non-elite talents at 27 to 30 for 5 or 6 years that generally ends in disaster.

Word to that

 

[Mac Attack]

Soderberg has had a surprising rebound as a mid tier guy on a free agent contract

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

I'm sure the number will surprise some

 

[BurgoShark]

Mid-tier guys rarely do, and I'm struggling to think of an example. Joe Thornton has earned his money pretty much every year of his deal. You should also probably look exclusively at guys who signed when they had upcoming UFA status. For example, guys like Tavares, Seguin, and Stamkos fully lived up to the deals they got as RFA's. Paying your young players at 21 or so, rarely results in an overpay. It's the paying of non-elite talents at 27 to 30 for 5 or 6 years that generally ends in disaster.

I thought of Thornton and Marleau, but they never signed long term deals. Thornton never signed more than 3 years at a time.

 

[BurgoShark]

Wheeler
Bergeron
Pavelski
Seguin

Of these Seguin is the only one that qualifies.

Pavelski and Wheeeler - 5 years

Bergeron has 3 years left on his deal.

 

[BurgoShark]

Chara seems to have provided good value on his contracts. Marc-Andre Fleury has held up well.

These are two good ones

 

[BurgoShark]

Soderberg has had a surprising rebound as a mid tier guy on a free agent contract

5 years only

 

[Hostile Offer]

Jeff Petry is definitely playing above his salary ($5M this year). He's aged like fine wine and if his play carries over to the next two years (his last two on a six year contract) he'll definitely be a prime example of this.

 

[Mac Attack]

5 years only

Oh okay. Makes sense.

 

[Tripod]

Giroux still has 3 years left on his deal but certainly is trending to be a fine deal considering 8 million gets you Ryan Johanson...lol.

 

[LeHab]

E. Karlsson - 7 years @6.5m
Pietrangelo - playing 6th year, one more left after.
Doughty
Rinne
OEL

 

[mitchthemitch]

Mid-tier guys rarely do, and I'm struggling to think of an example. Joe Thornton has earned his money pretty much every year of his deal. You should also probably look exclusively at guys who signed when they had upcoming UFA status. For example, guys like Tavares, Seguin, and Stamkos fully lived up to the deals they got as RFA's. Paying your young players at 21 or so, rarely results in an overpay. It's the paying of non-elite talents at 27 to 30 for 5 or 6 years that generally ends in disaster.

I read this sentence and my mind jumped immediately to JVR

 

[93LEAFS]

I read this sentence and my mind jumped immediately to JVR

I personally think JVR has a pretty specific skill set (that he's among the best in the league at) that will age well as long as injuries don't destroy him. Similar to how Andreychuk aged fairly well. He's never been a crash and bang wingers that overly relies on speed or physicality, who generally fall into this category like Ladd, Lucic, Clarkson, etc. Now, I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen to him, but I do think he has a skill set like Vanek that will age fairly well as long as he's used properly.

 

[ToDavid]

Of these Seguin is the only one that qualifies.

Pavelski and Wheeeler - 5 years

Bergeron has 3 years left on his deal.

For Wheeler I'm assuming they meant he's proven his worth on his current 6-year contract (age 27 to 32), which ends this season. Whether or not the same will be true at the end of his 5-year deal that starts next season remains to be seen.

 

[StoneHands]

For the Flyers:
Giroux is in year 5 of 8 and earning every bit of his $8.275m cap hit.
Couturier is in year 3 of his 6 year deal at $4.33m. It looks like more and more of a steal every year.

Others that come to mind:
Peitrangelo in year 6 of his 7 year deal at $6.5 per
Hall has been injured this season but he's living up to his $6m cap hit with 1 year remaining.
Rask has 2 years left of his 8 year deal at $7m per.
Dubnyk has 2 years left of his 6 year deal at $4.33m per.

 

[Leafs87]

Wheeler
Bergeron
Pavelski
Seguin

Wheeler on his old contract for sure. Curious to see about his new one which runs into his late 30s

 

[TOGuy14]

This discussion should only be about guys who sign long term deals in their late 20s / early 30s. Obviously a guy like Backstrom should provide good value through his prime years, his next contract will be the questionable one.

 

[XXIV97]

Lucic. He is top 5 in hits

 

[FrankAbagnale]

For the Flyers:
Giroux is in year 5 of 8 and earning every bit of his $8.275m cap hit.
Couturier is in year 3 of his 6 year deal at $4.33m. It looks like more and more of a steal every year.

This is a great example of the difficulties of assessing value from players still under team control when they sign their long-term deal and those that are not (no issues with the poster, who followed the guidelines from the OP). Many of the younger players signing long-term deals are going to be more financially lucrative for the team because of team's holding leverage. Giroux's play and corresponding contract are more impressive and uncommon.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Idk if this counts but Leon Draisaitl's contract was largely thought to be an overpay when it was signed. Rn it looks like it's gonna be a huge steal moving forward.

Massive steal now.. A couple contracts signed this year has made Drai's deal look insanely good now