Player season point estimates

[c4rcy]

Another thing to help pass the time until the season starts. On the roster, predict how many goals/assists/points you think each player will have (barring injuries) at the end of the season. Assume the players you pick will remain with the team for the full duration of the season.

PLAYER - G-A-P
Stoner - 3-9-12
Fowler - 7-33-40
Allen - 1-8-9
Lovejoy - 5-20-25
Cogliano - 18-25-43
Perry - 43-43-86
DSP - 18-15-33
Getzlaf - 27-64-91
Etem - 8-12-20
Kesler - 28-33-61
Jackman - 3-6-9
Maroon - 13-25-38
Palmieri - 15-22-37
Beauchemin - 5-18-23
Fistric - 1-6-7
Silfverberg - 16-17-33
Beleskey - 11-16-27
Thompson - 8-8-16
Vatanen - 9-23-32
Lindholm - 7-30-37
Heatley - 17-28-45
Rakell - 8-15-23

Total goals - 271

I think this is pretty realistic. We scored 263 with 3 shootout wins last year. I expect big jumps from the kids and having Kesler will certainly boost the offense.

Click to read more...

 

[George Binks]

I think Heatley will atleast score 50 goals this year

 

[c4rcy]

I think Heatley will atleast score 50 goals this year

#50in15

 

[TheJoeMan]

Another thing to help pass the time until the season starts. On the roster, predict how many goals/assists/points you think each player will have (barring injuries) at the end of the season. Assume the players you pick will remain with the team for the full duration of the season.

PLAYER - G-A-P
Stoner - 3-9-12
Fowler - 7-33-40
Allen - 1-8-9
Lovejoy - 5-20-25
Cogliano - 18-25-43
Perry - 43-43-86
DSP - 18-15-33
Getzlaf - 27-64-91
Etem - 8-12-20
Kesler - 28-33-61
Jackman - 3-6-9
Maroon - 13-25-38
Palmieri - 15-22-37
Beauchemin - 5-18-23
Fistric - 1-6-7
Silfverberg - 16-17-33
Beleskey - 11-16-27
Thompson - 8-8-16
Vatanen - 9-23-32
Lindholm - 7-30-37
Heatley - 17-28-45
Rakell - 8-15-23

Total goals - 271

I think this is pretty realistic. We scored 263 with 3 shootout wins last year. I expect big jumps from the kids and having Kesler will certainly boost the offense.

I think these are really reasonable numbers. My only issue would be 5 goals and 28 total points out of Stoner, Allen and Fistric. I'm thinking more like 1 goal and maybe 15 points total out of all three of them. Also I think one of Belesky, Etem, Palmieri or Smith-Pelly, or all of them, will be lower due to the fact that they may all be fighting for consistent ice-time. If Smith-Pelly and Palmieri are pushing 20 goals than Etem probably isn't playing much at all or if he is than Belesky is barely playing. Otherwise it looks good. I think that's a good representation of why I think this team is going to be just as successful as we were last season.

 

[c4rcy]

I think these are really reasonable numbers. My only issue would be 5 goals and 28 total points out of Stoner, Allen and Fistric. I'm thinking more like 1 goal and maybe 15 points total out of all three of them. Also I think one of Belesky, Etem, Palmieri or Smith-Pelly, or all of them, will be lower due to the fact that they may all be fighting for consistent ice-time. If Smith-Pelly and Palmieri are pushing 20 goals than Etem probably isn't playing much at all or if he is than Belesky is barely playing. Otherwise it looks good. I think that's a good representation of why I think this team is going to be just as successful as we were last season.

Valid reasoning. I think I failed to incorporate that players will be fighting for the same spots. Seeing that Allen/Stoner/Fistric have to fight for the same position, as well as Etem/Jackman, I think there will be an averaged amount of points between each slot and players. I would say between 5-15 goals less than my current estimate factoring that in.

 

[AngelDuck]

Forwards:
Getzlaf- 26 goals, 59 assists - 85 points
Perry- 35 goals, 42 assists - 77 points
Kesler- 28 goals, 34 assists - 62 points
Maroon- 12 goals, 32 assists - 44 points
Cogliano- 16 goals, 24 assists - 40 points
Heatley- 17 goals, 18 assists - 35 points
Palmieri- 18 goals, 15 assists - 33 points
Rakell- 12 goals, 20 assists - 32 points
Silfverberg- 10 goals, 15 assists - 25 points
Beleskey - 10 goals, 14 assists - 24 points
DSP- 13 goals, 14 assists - 27 points
Thompson- 8 goals, 8 assists - 16 points
Etem- 7 goals, 7 assists - 14 points

Defense:
Vatanen- 11 goals, 28 assists - 39 points
Fowler- 6 goals, 32 assists - 38 points
Lindholm- 6 goals, 26 assists - 32 points
Beauchemin- 3 goals, 12 assists - 15 points
Lovejoy- 3 goals, 17 assists - 20 points
Stoner/Allen/Fistric- 1 goal, 16 assists - 17 points combined

Total goals comes out to 242

 

[2faded]

Lindholm: 11g 33a 44p - outproduces Fowler and Vatanen

 

[TheJoeMan]

This took me a minute because I wanted the assists to make sense. Believe it or not there's a pretty solid correlation between the number of goals and assists. You goal totals should be about 60% of your assists so c4rcy and AngelDuck you're both a little high on your assists. Or your goals are too low based on everyone's point totals. Anyway, here are mine:

Getzlaf-25-65-90
Perry-40-37-77
Kesler-30-32-62
Fowler-6-35-41
Maroon-17-23-40
Silfverberg-15-25-40
Vatanen-12-27-39
Cogliano-18-19-37
Lindholm-7-30-37
Heatley-20-15-35
Palmieri-16-19-35
Etem-12-15-27
Thompson-10-15-25
Smith-Pelly-12-13-24
Beauchemin-5-18-23
Rakell/Karlsson-7-15-22
Lovejoy-5-17-22
Belesky-4-11-15
Stoner-1-10-11
Jackman-2-4-6
Fistric-1-2-3

264 goals total. I'm optimistic about Heatley, Kesler, and Vatanen. Everyone else I feel is very much within their reach realistically provided solid health.

 

[SoCalHockey]

PLAYER - G-A-P
Allen - 1-8-9

Other then this glaring flaw it was a solid estimate.

 

[terranraida]

Other then this glaring flaw it was a solid estimate.

That is a own goal, technically it's not wrong...

 

[Paul4587]

I think Kesler will struggle to hit 60. It's not 2011 anymore, he's an elite two way guy but I'm thinking he's closer to 50 than 60 unless our PP really takes off with him on the 1st unit.

 

[Nordic*]

I think Kesler will struggle to hit 60. It's not 2011 anymore, he's an elite two way guy but I'm thinking he's closer to 50 than 60 unless our PP really takes off with him on the 1st unit.

That line (with Silfverberg & Maroon) will be used to shut down the best lines too, so if they reach 60 Points you know that Anaheim will probably reach the finals.

I'd much rather see Cogliano on that line, than Maroon, to be honest. Right now they are too slow to face the Ovy's, Crosbys and Stamkoses out there. Silfver is the only one remotely fast player.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

I think Maroon and Palms should be together and Silf and Cogs should...so either
Maroon Kesler Palms
or
Silf Kesler Palms

with

Silf Rakell/Karlsson Cogs
or
Maroon Rakell/Karlsson Palms

That way we have a "shutdown" pairing

 

[Paul4587]

Rakell and Karlsson aren't good enough defensively at this level yet to be put on a line being used to shut down anything. If BB wants a third line to shut down teams it will likely involve Thompson.

 

[TheJoeMan]

I think Kesler will struggle to hit 60. It's not 2011 anymore, he's an elite two way guy but I'm thinking he's closer to 50 than 60 unless our PP really takes off with him on the 1st unit.

If Bonino can hit 49 and Perreault can hit 43, Kesler can definitely hit 60 if he's healthy. I mean he got 43 on one of the worst offensive teams in the league last year. I like his chances.

 

[TheJoeMan]

Rakell and Karlsson aren't good enough defensively at this level yet to be put on a line being used to shut down anything. If BB wants a third line to shut down teams it will likely involve Thompson.

Agreed. A like of Maroon-Karlsson/Rakell-Palmieri is most certainly not a shutdown line by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[TheJoeMan]

Figure we shouldn't leave the goalies out.

Player: G -W-L-OT SO GAA Save

Gibson: 45-30-10-5 5 2.27 .921
Andersen: 37-24-8-5 3 2.33 .919

 

[HanSolo]

I think Kesler will struggle to hit 60. It's not 2011 anymore, he's an elite two way guy but I'm thinking he's closer to 50 than 60 unless our PP really takes off with him on the 1st unit.

It's not but we aren't the Canucks either

 

[Paul4587]

It's not but we aren't the Canucks either

What's that got to do with anything? Kesler outside of his 2 big years has mostly been a 40-60 point player with exception to when he was breaking into the lineup. Without a decent amount of first PP time (which he got in Vancouver) he probably won't be putting up 60+ points.

Anyways I got bored so decided to throw my 2c in:

Matt Beleskey 64 11 12 23
Andrew Cogliano 82 15 17 32
Emerson Etem 52 11 9 20
Ryan Getzlaf 77 25 60 85
Dany Heatley 70 14 19 33
Tim Jackman 44 3 2 5
William Karlsson 48 4 14 18
Ryan Kesler 78 27 23 50
Patrick Maroon 80 16 29 45
Kyle Palmieri 70 21 23 44
Corey Perry 82 35 38 73
Rickard Rakell 40 3 9 12
Jakob Silfverberg 70 13 15 28
Devante Smith-Pelly 51 7 11 18
Nate Thompson 76 8 8 16
Bryan Allen/Mark Fistric 52 1 10 11
Francois Beauchemin 82 4 21 25
Cam Fowler 73 6 34 40
Hampus Lindholm 78 14 26 40
Ben Lovejoy 82 4 13 17
Clayton Stoner 60 1 6 7
Sami Vatanen 65 15 21 36

 

[Teemu Salami]

What's that got to do with anything? Kesler outside of his 2 big years has mostly been a 40-60 point player with exception to when he was breaking into the lineup. Without a decent amount of first PP time (which he got in Vancouver) he probably won't be putting up 60+ points.

Anyways I got bored so decided to throw my 2c in:

Matt Beleskey 64 11 12 23
Andrew Cogliano 82 15 17 32
Emerson Etem 52 11 9 20
Ryan Getzlaf 77 25 60 85
Dany Heatley 70 14 19 33
Tim Jackman 44 3 2 5
William Karlsson 48 4 14 18
Ryan Kesler 78 27 23 50
Patrick Maroon 80 16 29 45
Kyle Palmieri 70 21 23 44
Corey Perry 82 35 38 73
Rickard Rakell 40 3 9 12
Jakob Silfverberg 70 13 15 28
Devante Smith-Pelly 51 7 11 18
Nate Thompson 76 8 8 16
Bryan Allen/Mark Fistric 52 1 10 11
Francois Beauchemin 82 4 21 25
Cam Fowler 73 6 34 40
Hampus Lindholm 78 14 26 40
Ben Lovejoy 82 4 13 17
Clayton Stoner 60 1 6 7
Sami Vatanen 65 15 21 36

I'm not that optimistic about our blueline production yet.

 

[TheJoeMan]

I figure I'd bump this now that the season is over. I think it's clear a lot of us expected a lot more out of Heatley to say the least. No one saw Beleskey's season coming and I have to give major props to AngelDuck for calling Rakell's point totals almost on the nose. Interestingly Getzlaf and Perry are two of the biggest overestimated though Perry had injuries and mumps to deal with. I think Palmieri would have had the kind of season much of us expected had he not missed 25 games.

 

[Ando]

Interesting to see Silfverberg get 26 assists and 39 points but get 13 of 16 goals predicted. I honestly think he could have had more goals but he was really snake bitten earlier in the season with plenty of "almost" goals.

 

[c4rcy]

Boy was I off. Guess that's how it happens sometimes. I think the Perry and Palmieri injuries thrwarted their numbers pretty good.

Heatley was supposed to be a mainstay on that top line, but obviously didn't work out as planned.

Rakell, Vatanen, Beleskey all surpassed my original estimates, which is nice.

 

[hockeey]

Interesting to see Silfverberg get 26 assists and 39 points but get 13 of 16 goals predicted. I honestly think he could have had more goals but he was really snake bitten earlier in the season with plenty of "almost" goals.

What are reasonable expectations for silfverberg next year? Any chance he can still break out and be a stud offensively? I see him as a 20 goal 30 assist guy at his tops. Am I far off?

 

[Ando]

What are reasonable expectations for silfverberg next year? Any chance he can still break out and be a stud offensively? I see him as a 20 goal 30 assist guy at his tops. Am I far off?

15-20 goals, +30A I think.