Player Expectations (Point-wise)

[Neil Hamburger]

It's the middle of August, and there's not much to talk about in-terms of hockey. Most (if not all) of the moves that will be made this off-season have been done.

Our roster will look something like this:

JVR-Bozak-Kessel
Lupul-Kadri-Santorelli
Komarov-Kontiola-Clarkson
Booth-Winnik-Bodie
Ex: Frattin, Holland

Phaneuf-Polak
Gardiner-Robidas
Rielly-Franson
Ex: Granberg

Since I'm so bored, I'm going to give my expectations for point production of each player over an 82 game season (except for the "extra" players as there's no way of knowing how many games they'll play in).

JVR: 30+30 = 60 pts
Bozak: 20 + 40 = 60 pts
Kessel: 35 + 45 = 80 pts

Lupul: 25 + 30 = 55 (in the unlikely event he plays a whole season) pts
Kadri: 25 + 40 = 65 pts
Santorelli: 15 + 20 = 35 pts

Komarov: 15 + 10 = 25 pts
Kontiola: 10 + 15 = 25 pts
Clarkson: 15 + 10 = 25 pts

Booth: 10 + 10 = 20 pts
Winnik: 5 + 15 = 20 pts
Bodie: 5 + 10 = 15 pts

Phaneuf: 10 + 30 = 40 pts
Polak: 5 + 15 = 20 pts

Gardiner: 10 + 25 = 35 pts
Robidas: 5 + 10 = 15 pts

Rielly: 5 + 30 = 35 pts
Franson: 5 + 25 = 30 pts

Total goals for: 250

So, if every player lives up to my expectations offensively, we would likely be top-5 in GF (250 would have been good enough for 4th in the league last year). Obviously some players will exceed my expectations, and some will falter (which will be compounded by injuries), most likely slanting towards being well below my expectations on the whole (we scored 222 goals last season). If our 4th line can actually produce some offense this year however, it could make a pretty big difference. Give your own point expectations for your own projected roster, it's a good time waster.

Click to read more...

 

[Frelimo]

I don't see Bozak getting 20 goals, probably more like 15. His SH% will probably not be as high.

I also don't think both Komarov and Clarkson will put up 15. I think Komarov will get closer to 10, and at this point, I would love if Clarkson can even do that.

I think Phaneuf will probably be closer to 30-35 points. I could see him losing some PP time.

Probably more realistic to aim for 235 goals, which would still be really good.

 

[FifthLine]

JVR: 60-70 points
Bozak: 50-60 points
Kessel: 80-90 points

Lupul: 50-60 points
Kadri: 55-65 points
Santorelli: 40-45 points

Booth: 20-25 points
Kontiola: ? He is the X factor for me this season
Clarkson: 30-35 points

Komarov: 15-20 points
Holland: 25-35 points
Frattin: 15-25 points
Winnik 20-25 points

Phaneuf: 35-40 points
Robidas: 20-25 points

Gardiner: 35-40 points
Polak: 10-15 points

Reilly: 30-35 points
Franson: 30-35 points

 

[Neil Hamburger]

I don't see Bozak getting 20 goals, probably more like 15. His SH% will probably not be as high.

I also don't think both Komarov and Clarkson will put up 15. I think Komarov will get closer to 10, and at this point, I would love if Clarkson can even do that.

I think Phaneuf will probably be closer to 30-35 points. I could see him losing some PP time.

Probably more realistic to aim for 235 goals, which would still be really good.

I agree about Bozak's shooting %, but he only played 60 games last season.

I think Komarov will thrive in a third line role, and put up 15 goals. Clarkson will hopefully return to the 15 goal self he was in NJ, but we'll see.

I think Franson will lose some PP time this year to one of Rielly or Gardiner, but Phaneuf will stay on the top pairing.

To be clear, I don't think we will get 250 goals for this year. I think if every player plays the way they are capable of playing we will, but inevitably some players will struggle. 250 GF is more of a best case scenario, where every player hits their expectations.

 

[PuckMagi]

I think Bozak's shooting percentage will remain high (though probably not quite as high as last season). I think that he looks for the pass to Kessel and JVR a lot ... and therefore he only shoots when he's got a really good chance at scoring. Kessel on the other hand just fires wrist shots at the net constantly... and since he's got such a good shot, he eventually gets one by the goalie even though he takes low percentage shots.

 

[TOGuy14]

JVR: 60-70 points
Bozak: 50-60 points
Kessel: 80-90 points

Lupul: 50-60 points
Kadri: 55-65 points
Santorelli: 40-45 points

Booth: 20-25 points
Kontiola: ? He is the X factor for me this season
Clarkson: 30-35 points

Komarov: 15-20 points
Holland: 25-35 points
Frattin: 15-25 points
Winnik 20-25 points

Phaneuf: 35-40 points
Robidas: 20-25 points

Gardiner: 35-40 points
Polak: 10-15 points

Reilly: 30-35 points
Franson: 30-35 points

This is my guess, much closer than OPs

 

[Menzinger]

Bozak's career history certainly indicates his point totals by seasons end will be less than 50 pionts.

Won't make predictions for the whole team but here are some for a few players:

Kessel 82
JVR 60
Kadri 60
Lupul 55
Bozak 45
Clarkson 25
Komerov 25
Gardiner 40
Rielly 30
Phaneuf 40

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

JVR: 55-65 points
Bozak: 50-60 points
Kessel: 75-85 points

Lupul: 50-60 points
Kadri: 55-65 points
Clarkson: 30-40 points

Booth: 20-25 points
Kontiola: 20-25 points
Santorelli: 20-25 points

Komarov: 10-20 points (seriously why did we pay 3M for this? )
Holland: 15-25 points
Frattin: 5-15 points
Winnik 15-25 points

Phaneuf: 35-45 points
Gardiner: 30-35 points

Robidas: 15-20 points
Reilly: 25-30 points


Polak: 10-15 points
Franson: 45-55 points

 

[hockeyfanz*]

I think most of these predictions up till now are pretty reasonable.

 

[crump]

              JVR                     Bozak                      Kessel
          31-38-69               18-38-56.                42-40-82
             Lupul                    Kadri                     Santorelli
          23-35-58               21-40-61.                15-32-47
          Winnik                    Kontiola                  Komarov 
          12-18-30               10-25-35.                13-13-26
             Booth                   Holland                   Clarkson
          12-20-32               12-25-35.                 13-11-24

                        Phaneuf                  Polak
                     17-38-55                 5-15-20
                        Gardiner.                Robidas
                      13-35-48                7-15-22
                          Rielly.                  Franson
                       7-27-34.                8-24-32


                                        Bernier
                               2.14 GAA.     .921 SV
                                     James Reimer
                               3.08.  GAA.    .901 SV


Extras.       Bodie.   3-10-13
                 Frattin.  6-13-19
                 Granberg  1-8-9

Based on the bottom 3 lines playing the same amount. Optimistic? Yes I am. Haven't added up the goals for but nearing 250 or around that number.

 

[egd27]

              JVR                     Bozak                      Kessel
          31-38-69               22-38-60                 42-40-82
             Lupul                    Kadri                     Santorelli
          23-35-58               25-40-65                 18-32-50
          Winnik                    Kontiola                  Komarov 
          12-18-30               15-25-40                13-13-26
             Booth                   Holland                   Clarkson
          15-20-35               14-28-42                 17-15-32         

                        Phaneuf                  Polak
                     17-38-55                 5-15-20
                        Gardiner.                Robidas
                      13-35-48                7-15-22
                          Rielly.                  Franson
                       7-27-34.                8-24-32


                                        Bernier
                               2.14 GAA.     .921 SV
                                     James Reimer
                               3.08.  GAA.    .901 SV


Extras.       Bodie.   3-10-13
                 Frattin.  6-13-19
                 Granberg  1-8-9

Based on the bottom 3 lines playing the same amount. Optimistic? Yes I am. Haven't added up the goals for but nearing 300 or around that number.

That's 314 GF and only about 201 GA (assuming 55 games for Bernier)

That would make a positive goal differential of 113, and probably a favourite to win the Cup.

That's beyond optimistic my friend. Not sure there is a word for it.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Kessel 42 40 82
JVR 35 33 68
Brozak 21 49 70
Kadri 25 35 60
Lupul 21 23 44

Gardiner 14 28 42
Phaneuf 15 28 41
Rielly 9 25 34
Franson 11 22 33

 

[Mess]

James Van Riemsdyk (32-33-65)
Tyler Bozak (19-37-56)
Phil Kessel (40-38-78)

Joffrey Lupul (23-24-47)
Nazem Kadri (24-31-55)
David Booth (14-20-34)

Leo Komarov (9-15-24)
Mike Santorelli (12-18-30)
David Clarkson (10-17-27)

Daniel Winnik (6-12-18)
Petri Kontiola (10-12-22)
Troy Bodie (5-10-15)

Peter Holland ()
Matt Frattin ()

Dion Phaneuf (9-24-33)
Roman Polak (4-14-18)
Jake Gardiner (11-32-44)
Stephane Robidas (5-10-15)
Morgan Rielly (7-31-38)
Cody Franson (6-20-26)

Petter Granberg ()

Goals For = 246 (with spare players filling in for injuries) up from 231 last year = +15

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think Bozak's shooting percentage will remain high (though probably not quite as high as last season). I think that he looks for the pass to Kessel and JVR a lot ... and therefore he only shoots when he's got a really good chance at scoring. Kessel on the other hand just fires wrist shots at the net constantly... and since he's got such a good shot, he eventually gets one by the goalie even though he takes low percentage shots.

Bozak's shooting % is a lark among his unrealistic detractors. He is never going to score 40 goals, heck even Kessel has never scored 40 goals. What we can expect is if he plays 82 games, he will be in the 25 goal range. Even if his shooting % drops a little this is the difference of maybe 5 goals. From 30 to 25 high side, to 25-20.

This is an analytics argument of trying to discredit a player. Bozak is smart, and he does not take Jason Blake shots, he realizes he has better options, shooting % applies less to a player like him as say it would to a player like JVR or Kessel.

 

[Purity*]

Bozak's shooting % is a lark among his unrealistic detractors. He is never going to score 40 goals, heck even Kessel has never scored 40 goals. What we can expect is if he plays 82 games, he will be in the 25 goal range. Even if his shooting % drops a little this is the difference of maybe 5 goals. From 30 to 25 high side, to 25-20.

This is an analytics argument of trying to discredit a player. Bozak is smart, and he does not take Jason Blake shots, he realizes he has better options, shooting % applies less to a player like him as say it would to a player like JVR or Kessel.

He shot at 21.5%, that is 100% absolutely unrealistic that he maintains that over a full year, unless he's better at picking his spots than Steven Stamkos.

It's actually an analytics argument that Bozak won't be scoring at his pace he was in his shortened year last year. Which is a really good bet that he won't, seeing as he's never topped 20 goals or 50 points in his career. He will get around 15-20 goals and 25-30 assists based on his career so far. Don't try and prop him up to be something he's not.

 

[Menzinger]

Well, we can all hope that Bozak has a career year this coming season, and manages at the age of 29 to finally score 20 goals in a season for the first time. Hopefully Kessel and JVR will help make that a reality for him - for the sake of the team.

 

[LV*]

Well, we can all hope that Bozak has a career year this coming season, and manages at the age of 29 to finally score 20 goals in a season for the first time. Hopefully Kessel and JVR will help make that a reality for him - for the sake of the team.

Well he did score 19 goals in 58 games lmfao

 

[KrisLetAngry]

He shot at 21.5%, that is 100% absolutely unrealistic that he maintains that over a full year, unless he's better at picking his spots than Steven Stamkos.

It's actually an analytics argument that Bozak won't be scoring at his pace he was in his shortened year last year. Which is a really good bet that he won't, seeing as he's never topped 20 goals or 50 points in his career. He will get around 15-20 goals and 25-30 assists based on his career so far. Don't try and prop him up to be something he's not.

Bozak is not a high volume shooter. Look at how many Ovechkin takes to score that many. He takes those low percentage shots and scores like Kessel does. Bozak my guess his shooting percentage will be 18%~ unless his game changes and he doesn't take almost all his shots within 5 feet of the net

 

[slozo]

Decent predictions, guys! I'll throw mine in...with the predictions for injuries and at least one trade thrown in:

James Van Riemsdyk (27-28-55)
Tyler Bozak (22-39-61)
Phil Kessel (34-45-79)

Guy traded for Lupul (20-20-40)
Nazem Kadri (32-36-68)

David Clarkson (16-20-36)
Leo Komarov (5-18-23)
Mike Santorelli (10-22-32)
Daniel Winnik (11-15-26)
Peter Holland (13-13-26)
Petri Kontiola (10-12-22)
Matt Frattin (12-8-20)

Troy Bodie (3-12-15)

Morgan Rielly (12-34-46)
Dion Phaneuf (7-26-33)
Jake Gardiner (17-21-38)
Roman Polak (2-16-18)
Stephane Robidas (7-18-25)

Cody Franson (2-4-6) - traded

Petter Granberg (1-8-9)

Goals For = 246 (with spare players filling in for injuries) up from 231 last year = +15[/QUOTE]

 

[The Winter Soldier]

He shot at 21.5%, that is 100% absolutely unrealistic that he maintains that over a full year, unless he's better at picking his spots than Steven Stamkos.

It's actually an analytics argument that Bozak won't be scoring at his pace he was in his shortened year last year. Which is a really good bet that he won't, seeing as he's never topped 20 goals or 50 points in his career. He will get around 15-20 goals and 25-30 assists based on his career so far. Don't try and prop him up to be something he's not.

Bozak had 19 goals in 58 games last year. This is a projected 27 goal pace over 82 games. If his shooting percentage slips 5% this is a drop of 1.35 goals a season. What is your point, he would be a failure if he scores 25 goals over a 82 game schedule?

Again, he is not Kessel, he is not a goal scorer, as illustrated above, the shooting % argument is a lark solely used to discredit him.

 

[BigWilly]

James Van Riemsdyk (35-28-63)
Tyler Bozak (17-30-47)
Phil Kessel (37-44-81)

Joffrey Lupul (22-20-42)
Nazem Kadri (26-36-62)
William Nylander (15-25-40)

Leo Komarov (11-13-24)
Mike Santorelli (13-16-29)
David Clarkson (10-17-27)

Daniel Winnik (8-11-19)
Petri Kontiola (7-12-19)
Matt Frattin (8-9-17)

Peter Holland ()
David Booth ()

Dion Phaneuf (8-25-33)
Roman Polak (3-12-15)
Jake Gardiner (12-28-40)
Stephane Robidas (4-11-15)
Morgan Rielly (4-33-37)
Cody Franson (5-20-25)

Petter Granberg ()

Goals For = 245

 

[cookie]

These are the goals-assist-point paces over 82 games. I highly doubt all players will be playing the entire 82 game schedule. I expect injuries and suspensions to hit people in red, though obviously I never want to see anyone injured, these might be spots where players can get playing time.


FORWARDS:
LW James Van Riemsdyk (26-31-57)
C Tyler Bozak (17-32-49)
RW Phil Kessel (38-47-85)

LW Joffrey Lupul (24-24-48) (might see 1st line)
C Nazem Kadri (25-36-61)
RW David Booth (14-21-35) (might see 3rd line)

LW Leo Komarov (11-18-29) (might see 2nd and 4th line)
C Mike Santorelli (16-14-30) (might see 2nd line)
RW David Clarkson (15-14-29) (might see 2nd and 4th line)

LW Daniel Winnik (10-18-28) (might see 3rd line)
C Petri Kontiola: don't know....
RW Troy Bodie (6-11-17) (might see 3rd line)

assuming third line minutes:
LW/C Peter Holland (18-13-31)
RW Matt Frattin (13-16-29)


DEFENSEMEN:
LD Dion Phaneuf (14-31-45)
RD Roman Polak (2-15-17)

LD Jake Gardiner (12-25-37)
RD Stephane Robidas (4-21-25)

LD Morgan Rielly (5-26-31)
RD Cody Franson (12-24-36)

assuming bottom pairing:
RD Petter Granberg (1-6-7)
RD Korbinian Holzer (1-4-5)


GOALTENDERS:
Jonathan Bernier (55 GP: 27-21-7 | 2.68 .921sv%)
James Reimer (25 GP: 10-11-4 | 2.99 .907sv%)


TEAM RECORD:
Toronto Maple Leafs 37-32-11 | 257GF 264GA

 

[Porn*]

James Van Riemsdyk (32-33-65)
Tyler Bozak (19-37-56)
Phil Kessel (40-38-78)

Joffrey Lupul (23-24-47)
Nazem Kadri (24-31-55)
David Booth (14-20-34)

Leo Komarov (9-15-24)
Mike Santorelli (12-18-30)
David Clarkson (10-17-27)

Daniel Winnik (6-12-18)
Petri Kontiola (10-12-22)
Troy Bodie (5-10-15)

Peter Holland ()
Matt Frattin ()

Dion Phaneuf (9-24-33)
Roman Polak (4-14-18)
Jake Gardiner (11-32-44)
Stephane Robidas (5-10-15)
Morgan Rielly (7-31-38)
Cody Franson (6-20-26)

Petter Granberg ()

Goals For = 246 (with spare players filling in for injuries) up from 231 last year = +15

here's the winner...

however I do see Clarkson rebounding and getting 2nd line minutes while booth gets knocked to the 3rd.

 

[Purity*]

Bozak had 19 goals in 58 games last year. This is a projected 27 goal pace over 82 games. If his shooting percentage slips 5% this is a drop of 1.35 goals a season. What is your point, he would be a failure if he scores 25 goals over a 82 game schedule?

Again, he is not Kessel, he is not a goal scorer, as illustrated above, the shooting % argument is a lark solely used to discredit him.

But not 20 goals.

Am I allowed to call Kadri a 30-goal, 75 point center? Didn't ****ing think so, apply your logic both ways buddy, not just when it's convenient to your arguments. If he scores 20 next year, go ahead and call him one, in the mean time, he's not.

anyway, on topic.

JVR- 30 goals, 35 points - 65 points
Bozak- 22 goals - 33 assists - 55 points
Kessel - 40 goals - 45 assists -85 points

Lupul - 25 goals 25 assists - 50 points (injury once again)
Kadri - 25 goals - 40 assists - 65 points
Santorelli - 15 goals - 20 assists - 35 points

Phaneuf - 10 goals, 35 assists - 45 points (expecting a bounce-back year offensively)
Gardiner - 10 goals, 27 assists - 37 points
Rielly - 8 goals - 25 assists - 32 points
Robidas - 5 goals, 15 assists - 20 points

If all goes well, we should be one of the better offensive teams in the league, we certainly have the talent. Defensively I still bet we're gonna be a disaster.

 

[Purity*]

I think next year is finally the year Bozie is ready to crack 20 goals and 50 points!