Hockey Monkey
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2011
- 998
- 0
It'd been a while since I'd done a big spreadsheet project from scratch and since I had nothing better to do at work today I made this thing. Methodology was to take 50 randomly selected players (population qualifiers: at least 500 NHL games, started career not earlier than 1980), then create an average for games played per age-season as well as a coefficient for point production based off of said age-year.
In other words, the games played is simply the average of all the population for that age-year; the point projections are adjusted based on how productive the population was at a given age. This coefficient was then applied to current players based on their present-day NHL productivity.
Couple notes:
- Only regular season NHL numbers are considered, no playoffs, no other leagues.
- Strikes/lockouts are not adjusted out of the numbers. We'd normally call these events "outliers" but, well...
- Current season stats were just taken from the projections on ESPN which are strictly proportional.
- No judgment calls of any type were made, it is only math. In other words, the players are projected to play the exact same number of games and their projections are based solely off of what they've done so far in their careers and what other players have done historically. I did not do anything like "Player X will still get better" or "Player Y will have a longer than average career".
- The numbers get a little wonky past age 36 or so because the sample size gets a lot smaller, but they seem reasonable if youtake the numbers together collectively. In other words, I'm not suggesting that these guys are going to have four consecutive single digit games-played seasons from age 39-43, but that IS the mean for the population.
- The model requires about 250 GP from the projected player, or else the player has to be somewhere close to their statistical peak for it to be anywhere near reasonable. So, RNH or Tarasenko probably won't be...good.
- The model was designed for forwards; I've not put in a defenseman yet. I think to be accurate I'll have to get a different set of coefficients which requires a different population. Sorry.
Anyway, here's the players I've done so far. Feel free to post if you have a request.
Steven Stamkos:
Stevie just barely squeaks into the 700 goal club and finishes at better than a PPG over 1200 career games. Stays top quality until well into his 30s. Great career, but never breaks 100 pts!
Patrick Kane:
Slides in with a cool 1100+ point career. That plus a couple of Cups gets him into the Hall I think.
Taylor Hall:
This is a little dicey as he's still pretty young, but I think this is a pretty plausible outcome. PPG player, pretty similar to Kaner points-wise.
Sidney Crosby:
I think this is pretty darn close to where he'll end up, both numerically and legacy-wise. Brilliant, all time great, but not quite in that top echelon. Stays better than a PPG well into his 30s.
Phil Kessel
Phil is an interesting case; goal scorers tend to drop off more prominently than playmakers in their late 20s so that has a big effect on Phil. He'll have an outside shot at 500 goals and 1000 points though.
Alex Ovechkin
Remember when he seemed like a lock for 800 goals? He might still get there, but he'd have to buck some big historical trends to do it.
In other words, the games played is simply the average of all the population for that age-year; the point projections are adjusted based on how productive the population was at a given age. This coefficient was then applied to current players based on their present-day NHL productivity.
Couple notes:
- Only regular season NHL numbers are considered, no playoffs, no other leagues.
- Strikes/lockouts are not adjusted out of the numbers. We'd normally call these events "outliers" but, well...
- Current season stats were just taken from the projections on ESPN which are strictly proportional.
- No judgment calls of any type were made, it is only math. In other words, the players are projected to play the exact same number of games and their projections are based solely off of what they've done so far in their careers and what other players have done historically. I did not do anything like "Player X will still get better" or "Player Y will have a longer than average career".
- The numbers get a little wonky past age 36 or so because the sample size gets a lot smaller, but they seem reasonable if youtake the numbers together collectively. In other words, I'm not suggesting that these guys are going to have four consecutive single digit games-played seasons from age 39-43, but that IS the mean for the population.
- The model requires about 250 GP from the projected player, or else the player has to be somewhere close to their statistical peak for it to be anywhere near reasonable. So, RNH or Tarasenko probably won't be...good.
- The model was designed for forwards; I've not put in a defenseman yet. I think to be accurate I'll have to get a different set of coefficients which requires a different population. Sorry.
Anyway, here's the players I've done so far. Feel free to post if you have a request.
Steven Stamkos:
Code:
age gm g a pts
18 79 23 23 46
19 82 51 44 95
20 82 45 46 91
21 82 60 37 97
22 48 29 28 57
23 41 34 22 56
24 63 42 36 78
25 68 45 39 84
26 73 50 40 90
27 69 43 37 79
28 64 40 37 77
29 70 42 37 79
30 58 32 28 60
31 65 38 33 70
32 59 29 24 53
33 61 31 28 59
34 45 21 14 36
35 34 17 13 29
36 28 13 9 22
37 20 8 5 13
38 13 5 4 9
39 10 4 4 7
40 4 2 1 3
41 5 2 1 2
42 3 1 0 2
43 3 1 0 2
44 0 0 0 0
45 0 0 0 0
1230 708 590 1297Stevie just barely squeaks into the 700 goal club and finishes at better than a PPG over 1200 career games. Stays top quality until well into his 30s. Great career, but never breaks 100 pts!
Patrick Kane:
Code:
AGE GAMES G A PTS
18
19 82 21 51 72
20 80 25 45 70
21 82 30 58 88
22 73 27 46 73
23 82 23 43 66
24 47 23 32 55
25 81 37 49 86
26 73 33 50 83
27 69 27 46 73
28 64 25 45 70
29 70 26 46 72
30 58 19 35 54
31 65 22 41 63
32 59 15 32 48
33 61 17 36 53
34 45 11 20 31
35 34 9 17 26
36 28 6 12 19
37 20 3 8 11
38 13 2 6 8
39 10 1 5 6
40 4 1 2 3
41 5 1 1 2
42 3 1 1 1
43 3 1 1 2
44 0 0 0 0
45 0 0 0 0
1212 406 729 1134Slides in with a cool 1100+ point career. That plus a couple of Cups gets him into the Hall I think.
Taylor Hall:
Code:
AGE GAMES G A PTS
18
19 65 22 20 42
20 61 27 26 53
21 45 16 34 50
22 75 28 51 79
23 67 32 49 82
24 63 31 46 78
25 68 30 45 75
26 73 34 47 81
27 69 31 48 79
28 64 30 49 78
29 70 26 42 68
30 58 26 43 69
31 65 22 37 59
32 59 20 36 57
33 61 19 34 53
34 45 19 30 48
35 34 14 24 38
36 28 10 16 26
37 20 7 12 19
38 13 5 10 16
39 10 3 7 10
40 4 3 5 9
41 5 0 1 1
42 3 1 2 3
43 3 1 1 2
44 0 1 2 3
45 0 0 0 0
1129 460 717 1177This is a little dicey as he's still pretty young, but I think this is a pretty plausible outcome. PPG player, pretty similar to Kaner points-wise.
Sidney Crosby:
Code:
AGE GAMES G A PTS
18 81 39 63 102
19 79 36 84 120
20 53 24 48 72
21 77 33 70 103
22 81 51 58 109
23 41 32 34 66
24 22 8 29 37
25 36 15 41 56
26 82 40 71 111
27 69 37 66 103
28 64 35 64 98
29 70 36 66 103
30 58 27 52 79
31 65 32 60 92
32 59 24 49 73
33 61 26 53 80
34 45 18 33 51
35 34 14 27 41
36 28 11 20 31
37 20 6 14 20
38 13 4 10 14
39 10 3 8 10
40 4 1 3 4
41 5 1 3 4
42 3 1 2 3
43 3 1 2 3
44 0 0 0
45 0 0 0
1164 557 1029 1585I think this is pretty darn close to where he'll end up, both numerically and legacy-wise. Brilliant, all time great, but not quite in that top echelon. Stays better than a PPG well into his 30s.
Phil Kessel
Code:
AGE GAMES G A PTS
18
19 70 11 18 29
20 82 19 18 37
21 70 36 24 60
22 70 30 25 55
23 82 32 32 64
24 82 37 45 82
25 48 20 32 52
26 82 42 49 91
27 69 29 32 60
28 64 27 32 59
29 70 28 32 59
30 58 20 24 44
31 65 24 28 52
32 59 17 20 37
33 61 19 24 43
34 45 12 11 23
35 34 10 10 20
36 28 7 7 14
37 20 4 4 8
38 13 2 3 6
39 10 2 3 4
40 4 1 1 2
41 5 1 0 1
42 3 1 0 1
43 3 1 0 1
44 0 0 0 0
45 0 0 0 0
1198 429 475 905Phil is an interesting case; goal scorers tend to drop off more prominently than playmakers in their late 20s so that has a big effect on Phil. He'll have an outside shot at 500 goals and 1000 points though.
Alex Ovechkin
Code:
AGE GAMES G A PTS
18
19
20 81 52 54 106
21 82 46 46 92
22 82 65 47 112
23 79 56 54 110
24 72 50 59 109
25 79 32 53 85
26 78 38 27 65
27 48 32 24 56
28 78 57 28 85
29 70 45 43 89
30 58 35 33 68
31 65 41 39 79
32 59 32 30 62
33 61 34 34 68
34 45 23 18 42
35 34 18 16 34
36 28 14 11 25
37 20 9 7 16
38 13 6 6 11
39 10 4 4 8
40 4 2 2 3
41 5 2 1 3
42 3 2 1 2
43 3 2 1 2
44 0 0 0 0
45 0 0 0 0
1158 695 638 1333Remember when he seemed like a lock for 800 goals? He might still get there, but he'd have to buck some big historical trends to do it.
