Play-off: 93 points to make it ?

[zzoo]

In the previous team rankings for play-off, a team with about 93 points would make it. Does this still apply to the new format (wild card) ?

Habs have 23 games left, and we need 23 more points to reach 93 points. So, Habs only need to play .500 to get in.
With one point given for a loss in OT, .500 is no longer .500 like before, it's actually easier to get .500. For example, in the East the #12 team is playing slightly above .500. There are only 3 teams that played below .500.

That means Habs almost make playoff. Does anyone have a website calculating the probabilty of Habs make playoff ?

Click to read more...

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Depends on what Conference you're in. We made it a few years back with a shocking 88 points. The East still sucks so it might be less than 92 which is usually around the cutoff. We'll see this year I guess.

 

[Agalloch]

This website is pretty good.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

 

[19VJ17]

This website is pretty good.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

Thanks for the link
91.2% looks good for Montreal....the % really drops off after the TOR

 

[MathMan]

The Habs are certainly playing poorly enough that missing out remains a possibility, but given their early cushion they're much more likely to be able to coast into a playoff spot.

 

[zzoo]

This website is pretty good.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern.html

Thank you very much !
Our chance is 93.9% now !

If we play .500 for the rest of season (21 pts in 21 games), which is quite easy, the probability jumps to 99.5%.

 

[Price is Wright]

The Habs are certainly playing poorly enough that missing out remains a possibility

Montreal only has to play .500 hockey to make it and they've won four of five.

Pay attention to the rest of the Conference. It'd take two teams going on fire for Montreal to stumble.

 

[MathMan]

Pay attention to the rest of the Conference. It'd take two teams going on fire for Montreal to stumble.

Not necessarily. Montreal is, in terms of level of play, one of the five worst teams in the league ATM. They're playing badly enough that a crash (a 6-12-3 type run, comparable to the Sabres to date) is possible given a stretch of bad luck, and that would pretty much take them out of the playoffs.

That would probably require their goaltending to go to pot though. Their goalies are good enough to make that unlikely, but certainly not impossible.

If the Habs were actually playing as well as their record they'd be a slam-dunk to make it. Playing like they are as a bottom-5 club, they're still unlikely to fall out thanks to their cushion.

 

[Alexdaman]

well every season is different and so are the conferences and divisions. I'm sure a couple teams from the Metropolitan division will make the PO with less than 93 pts, depending oh whether Detroit or Washington makes the cut. And maybe one team in the Western conference will have less than 93 pts.


The wild card system doesn't change much since 7th and 8th is still the 7th and 8th best teams of the whole conference. What does the new alignment really change is that teams that are successful or struggling vs another conference get to play more games against that conference and thus far it has really pumped up pts for the western conference.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Thank you very much !
Our chance is 93.9% now !

If we play .500 for the rest of season (21 pts in 21 games), which is quite easy, the probability jumps to 99.5%.

Even during the putrid late-Jan losing streak the chance only dropped to to 75%, and that was 10-20 games ago so I'd say things look solid.

 

[sharks9]

The 9th place team is on pace for 89 points right now, which means we just need 17 points in 21 games to finish ahead of them.

 

[Tyrus]

Not necessarily. Montreal is, in terms of level of play, one of the five worst teams in the league ATM.

Playing like they are as a bottom-5 club, they're still unlikely to fall out thanks to their cushion.

Too bad reality doesn't agree with you.

Our reccord after 10 games : 6-4-0 / 12 points (0.600).
Our reccord after 20 games : 10-8-2 / 22 points (0.550).
Our reccord after 30 games : 18-9-3 / 39 points (0.650).
Our reccord after 40 games : 23-14-3 / 49 points (0.613).
Our reccord after 50 games : 27-18-5 / 59 points (0.590).
Our reccord to date (61 games) : 33-21-7 / 73 points (0.598).

Last 10 games : 6-2-2 / 14 points out of 20 (0.700).

Our worst 10 games spawn was at the start of the season and our best was the recent one, please indicate to me where that "cushion" is coming from?

Considering we're "playing like one of the worst 5 things of league as of late" (let me question your actual awarness as an hockey fan on that one), explain to me how we're miles ahead of those teams in term of production? (The best of those 5 teams has a whooping 0.432 average!)

Not once has the team played on a pace under 0.500 this season over 10 games.

But hey, we suck, our roster is hopeless, the coach is garbage, 3/4 of the roster is garbage, our GM is garbage. Know what's garbage? The fefans hanging around here who don't seem to have a clue really.

 

[Burke the Legend]

he is probably a lars eller fanboy

 

[Koivu777]

We all know we are in the playoffs for sure. The question is who will we play in the 1st round?

 

[MathMan]

Too bad reality doesn't agree with you.

I'm talking overall level of play. It's great that the Habs' goaltending has been superhuman and making an awful 5-on-5 team look good, but that's not a long-term winning strategy.

Let's not even delve into fancystats. Let's just look at basic numbers. The Habs are 24th in shots for per game and correspondingly 22nd in goals against per game. The Habs are 21st in shots against per game, but 8th in goals against per game. I think you see where this is going.

Price has been keeping the team afloat, and Budaj has done more than his share, but you can't base your strategy on the notion that your goalie is going to play .925 and your backup is going to play .920 long-term. And you can't claim that that team is good. It's not good. It has had good goaltending. Very likely, unsustainably good goaltending.

The team has been playing very poorly (and I do not think it is a roster problem mainly). Its saving grace has been goaltending. We've been there as Habs fans before, we've seen this movie before several times, we know how it ends and I don't like that ending.

 

[Tyrus]

I'm talking overall level of play. It's great that the Habs' goaltending has been superhuman and making an awful 5-on-5 team look good, but that's not a long-term winning strategy.

Let's not even delve into fancystats. Let's just look at basic numbers. The Habs are 24th in shots for per game and correspondingly 22nd in goals against per game. The Habs are 21st in shots against per game, but 8th in goals against per game. I think you see where this is going.

Price has been keeping the team afloat, and Budaj has done more than his share, but you can't base your strategy on the notion that your goalie is going to play .925 and your backup is going to play .920 long-term. And you can't claim that that team is good. It's not good. It has had good goaltending. Very likely, unsustainably good goaltending.

The team has been playing very poorly (and I do not think it is a roster problem mainly). Its saving grace has been goaltending. We've been there as Habs fans before, we've seen this movie before several times, we know how it ends and I don't like that ending.

For the moment, both our goalies sit at around .920, which is, sorry to say, what you should expect from a starting goaltender in today's hockey. Mind you, Price received a similar amount of shots than 8 other goalies (a fairly high amount that is), and has roughly the same save % than 5 of them too. So while Price has been a key element to our team, he's not the main reason why this team has succeeded as a whole this season.

I don't understand why people dismiss everything except offence with it comes down to the team vs goalie comparison. Price doesn't have exceptional numbers that would validate him taking on the entirety of the team on his back, meaning that the current system doesn't favorise offence but isn't losing us games either.

And you know what, I'll tell you, this team is good. I've been a Lightning fan for a good time so I know what a bad team is and this isn't one. We're 3rd in the East right now, and nothing shows that we got there ridding on a goaltender. Are we good enough to win it all? Of course not. This team isn't a contender, but it's not pure **** like half the people here would like it to be apparently.

And what is this "overall level of play" that you've so finely analyzed? Our goaltending isn't making save at a higher percentage than other teams and our defence isn't allowing goals more often than other teams, so surely you've got some sort of statistic that no one is aware of. Either that or you're just unhappy as to how the team is playing and with what system they're playing, ignoring actual results in the process like the majority of the people here.

 

[Plante]

For the moment, both our goalies sit at around .920, which is, sorry to say, what you should expect from a starting goaltender in today's hockey. Mind you, Price received a similar amount of shots than 8 other goalies (a fairly high amount that is), and has roughly the same save % than 5 of them too. So while Price has been a key element to our team, he's not the main reason why this team has succeeded as a whole this season.

I don't understand why people dismiss everything except offence with it comes down to the team vs goalie comparison. Price doesn't have exceptional numbers that would validate him taking on the entirety of the team on his back, meaning that the current system doesn't favorise offence but isn't losing us games either.

And you know what, I'll tell you, this team is good. I've been a Lightning fan for a good time so I know what a bad team is and this isn't one. We're 3rd in the East right now, and nothing shows that we got there ridding on a goaltender. Are we good enough to win it all? Of course not. This team isn't a contender, but it's not pure **** like half the people here would like it to be apparently.

And what is this "overall level of play" that you've so finely analyzed? Our goaltending isn't making save at a higher percentage than other teams and our defence isn't allowing goals more often than other teams, so surely you've got some sort of statistic that no one is aware of. Either that or you're just unhappy as to how the team is playing and with what system they're playing, ignoring actual results in the process like the majority of the people here.

That is an extremely black/white view on how goaltending works. Shot quality is something you might want to look into. The statistical analyzation of goaltending by people just using save percentage needs to stop, the only thing you admitted here is that you don't know the goaltending position. Its an intellectual cop out to use save percentage as your only argument.

 

[Hoople]

Look toward Las Vegas. Predictions there come with a cost $$$$.

Odds to win the 2013-14 Eastern Conference

Team.........................Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins.......3/2
Boston Bruins................5/2
New York Rangers..........9/1
Columbus Blue Jackets.12/1
Montreal Canadiens 12/1
Tampa Bay Lightning 12/1
Philadelphia Flyers 12/1
Detroit Red Wings 20/1
Toronto Maple Leafs 20/1

Vegas likes our chances to make the playoffs.

 

[MathMan]

For the moment, both our goalies sit at around .920, which is, sorry to say, what you should expect from a starting goaltender in today's hockey.

No, it's not.

There are currently 10 goalies with significant time who are above .920. They're either having best-season-of-their-career types, or elite goalies having strong seasons.

And Price at .925 is well above .920. He's having literally the best season of his career.

So while Price has been a key element to our team, he's not the main reason why this team has succeeded as a whole this season.

Again: bad shots for, bad goals for, bad shots against, good goals against. That's the story of the Habs this year, right there. They are surviving mostly on goaltending. And being lucky to wring out such a good record out of a +2 goal-differential (outside of empty nets). For comparison, the 2011-2012 club was -2.

They have not been a good team. They've been fortunate, and that's not a bad thing necessarily, but they have not played well. They need to recognize that and address it rather than assume they can keep riding this, because they can't.

Price doesn't have exceptional numbers that would validate him taking on the entirety of the team on his back

The problem here is with your perception of what the numbers mean. .925 is, in fact, exceptional. It's not something that goalies can do on a long-term basis.

And what is this "overall level of play" that you've so finely analyzed? Our goaltending isn't making save at a higher percentage than other teams and our defence isn't allowing goals more often than other teams, so surely you've got some sort of statistic that no one is aware of.

Montreal's overall save percentage is second-best in the league, behind only Boston. They do, in fact, make saves at a higher percentage than other teams. Perhaps you should review the facts and rethink your conclusions.

 

[fsdev905]

Unfortunately the Habs will make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round.
It'll be in the same embarrassing fashion as last year.

 

[Alexdaman]

Unfortunately the Habs will make the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round.
It'll be in the same embarrassing fashion as last year.

You actually think that the leafs would destroy us?

 

[digmor crusher]

People keep saying..If It wasn't for Price we would be out of the playoffs. Well guess what Price is a part of the team, sometimes a goalie saves a season , sometimes a forward, sometimes a dman. Who cares. Its a TEAM. I don't care who is responsible for winning games, as long as we are winning.See 1993 when our goalie won a cup single handedly.

 

[MathMan]

People keep saying..If It wasn't for Price we would be out of the playoffs. Well guess what Price is a part of the team, sometimes a goalie saves a season , sometimes a forward, sometimes a dman. Who cares.

The issue here is that good teams don't have one person "saving" them. If the Habs were playing to potential, Price playing superhuman wouldn't save them, it'd take them over the top to a dogfight against the Bruins and Penguins.