Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[Xanadude]

Have you looked at Arizona's cap? They have been at or near the cap ceiling for the past few seasons...

They have 17 players under contract and 6.38m in cap after Hossa gets placed in the LTIR. If they're intending to retain Hall, they still need to clear a good amount of salary.

You reference THG. Go watch his 2020-21 preview for the Yotes. They're a walking disaster right now.

Oh good grief, I didn't know it was that bad. I honestly just assumed Arizona would be a cap graveyard like they used to be and I knew they were deeply dependent on gate revenue. That's what I get for talking without doing my research!

 

[Brockon]

Yeah, I am bummed out too, fellow Blues fans. . Btw, may as well stay on our board for Pietrangelo talk/news. The Pietrangelo thread on the main boards has been turned into a thread about the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I don't see that as anything unusual... Any free agent of note is discussed in depth about how great a fit would be for the Leafs...

It's absolutely ridiculous. I still get blasted with it non-stop living on the Canadian West Coast. I can't imagine being a non Leaf fan living anywhere in the East...

 

[Brockon]

Oh good grief, I didn't know it was that bad. I honestly just assumed Arizona would be a cap graveyard like they used to be and I knew they were deeply dependent on gate revenue. That's what I get for talking without doing my research!

Seriously, go watch the THG video on the Zona 2020-21 season preview... Bill Armstrong has a lot of work to do in his new position.

No cap space this year. 1 pick in the first 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts... A top 6 that can't get it done. An aging Dcore that's pretty much all gone after 2020-21 (4 dmen go UFA after next year, leaving them OEL and Chychrun).

For the 2021 off-season, they have options - but Bill basically needs to watch the team crash and burn this next year, then decide how he wants to proceed with what's left when he has significant cap space and a better idea of what he has to work with.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Call me crazy but I'm still optimistic on this working out and AP staying here. You can tell he's doing all he can to send the signal that he wants to stay. I also don't think there's anything wrong with the way Armstrong has gone about his business. Did the Faulk trade and subsequent extension take everyone by surprise? Yea. However, we really didn't give up anything from an asset point of view and literally no one could have predicted a pandemic/flat cap situation. I'm a big fan of injecting new blood, I think one of the worst mistakes any team can make after winning it all is falling into the mindset of, "Oh yea, we're fine, let's just stick with what we've got and make no changes." Allen was an insurance policy incase Binnington imploded as a fulltime starter. Once we knew that wasn't the case, Allen's days here were numbered. Moving his salary plus another 3ish mil in cap ceiling and we'd have no problem fitting AP in under the cap during the normal course of life. As it is now, we're still not really struggling with cap space if need be. It seems that we're offering a pretty fair deal (8x8) for a guy who's going to be 31 the first year of the contract and 39 by the end of it. I've long said AP will be worth that kind of money and I'm not changing my stance on that now.....however, I did also say that if things get really bad we can buy him out in the final year or two of the contract...…which is what it seems like AP is doing everything in his power to structure the contract not to do.

I think Armstrong's position is tough, but fair. AP has never been a finalist for the Norris (This is a travesty, but it is what it is) and he had a much more lucrative bridge then Josi. Some of Josi's money is a "Thanks for the most ridiculous team friendly contract in the NHL for like 5 years." I also think that not many contending teams will be willing to give AP what he wants, which is basically full buyout protection as well as a max deal. Anyone saying Vegas or Toronto is nuts. Both of those teams have a ton of juggling to do to make AP's contract fit on their books. Unless Toronto is going to ship out Marner, there's really no chance they can sign AP and fill out the roster. Vegas has to offload Fleury, a 35 year old goalie with two years 7 mil AAV, plus sign Lehner and at least a couple more depth forwards, as well as a backup goalie and they have less cap space then we do. Dallas and Vancouver are the teams I'd be worried about, but Vancouver has yet to really break though and Dallas has an older core then we do.

At the end of the day, this is what the Lightning did with Stamkos. Go out and see if you can find someone to give you what you want. If you can, then we'll think about it. But we're not going to give it to you straight up. Is that a gamble? Sure. However, Armstrong is smart not to cave into the demands right away for all this structure stuff. I think the money is there, and I think AP is pretty happy with the money. It's all the buyout protection they want, which is reasonable to ask for, but likely not going to be given to you right away. I think he'll find that our monetary offer is very reasonable, it's just a question if some GM decides to basically mortgage the future for the now with AP.....b/c that contract is going to look pretty bad in 4ish years....and he will have none of the emotional attachments we have with him if he's not performing up to snuff. It's a tough call for everyone, but that's how you know the deal will likely be fair.

Time will tell!

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Seriously, go watch the THG video on the Zona 2020-21 season preview... Bill Armstrong has a lot of work to do in his new position.

No cap space this year. 1 pick in the first 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts... A top 6 that can't get it done. An aging Dcore that's pretty much all gone after 2020-21 (4 dmen go UFA after next year, leaving them OEL and Chychrun).

For the 2021 off-season, they have options - but Bill basically needs to watch the team crash and burn this next year, then decide how he wants to proceed with what's left when he has significant cap space and a better idea of what he has to work with.

Sounds like he should deal salary where he can, sign UFAs that he can flip for picks at the deadline, and get a rebuild going.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

It probably is an issue where Petro and his agents don't have a realistic contract value based on the unknowns of this upcoming season. Hell I just saw a report coming out of Europe that they believe they will go back into a complete shutdown due to a second surge until at least the first of the year. Missing a portion of the season without fans or even with only partial fans will be devastating to probably 28 teams, or maybe all teams. As I stated before, the Blues sent me a notice that if I signed up a 3 year commitment to my season tickets, I would be guaranteed my seats in the event of a limited fan capacity. I chose not to so therefore, even though I've been a season ticket holder since the mid 80s, I still may not get to watch hockey in person if that occurs.

So what the Blues may be doing is saying to Petro and Newport, go see what the market says you are worth and then give us a shot to match it or come close with the additional perks of staying here for the rest of your career and continuing to compete. If someone throws stupid money then best of luck. I suspect that although it will cost him the additional year with the Blues after October 9th (7 vs 8), he'll sign here once he sees what the market will bear.

Bam!

That’s it!

Zackly what I was thinking.

DA nor Petro’s camp knows what the market is for him in this very strange offseason.

This is a way for all to see and may Petro et al. select the Blues.

 

[67Blues]

The smartest thing (although I don't know if it is above board or not) would be for the Blues to give permission to other teams talk to Petro before Oct 9. Thus, the Blues hold the trump card of the extra year if they want to play that against a higher AAV by extending him before Oct 9. And maybe that is already in the works based on the buzz that is being generated/leaked out to the press. Kind of like an offer sheet to an RFA type of setup for a UFA.

 

[simon IC]

What would it take to get another team charged with tampering? I am trying to remember how we lost a 1st to NJ for purportedly tampering with Scott Stevens. It would so cool if we could somehow get another 1st out of this situation.

 

[blues80]

What would it take to get another team charged with tampering? I am trying to remember how we lost a 1st to NJ for purportedly tampering with Scott Stevens. It would so cool if we could somehow get another 1st out of this situation.

Who Toronto?

 

[President Skroob]

What would it take to get another team charged with tampering? I am trying to remember how we lost a 1st to NJ for purportedly tampering with Scott Stevens. It would so cool if we could somehow get another 1st out of this situation.

we would need greasy Lou lamiorello’s corrupt judge. I just hope this isn’t Armstrong taking advice from John Mozeliak. One mediocre, boring ass team in St. Louis is enough.

 

[Ranksu]

Pietro is going to be Leaf. They will trade Nylander and maybe something more and make a room for Pietro.

 

[joe galiba]

What would it take to get another team charged with tampering? I am trying to remember how we lost a 1st to NJ for purportedly tampering with Scott Stevens. It would so cool if we could somehow get another 1st out of this situation.

I know how this works in Blue's land
another team will tamper with Petro
and then WE will owe them 5 #1's after they sign him

 

[Alklha]

What would it take to get another team charged with tampering? I am trying to remember how we lost a 1st to NJ for purportedly tampering with Scott Stevens. It would so cool if we could somehow get another 1st out of this situation.

It's basically impossible to get charged with tampering in the NHL now. The League doesn't care and openly accepts how widespread it is. We lost the Stevens case because our management was stupid enough to leave an internal paper trail.

As for the idea we'd get extra picks even if a team came out and admitted it? Not happening. The League bends over backwards to make nonsensical rulings in favour of New Jersey for some reason (both the Stevens case & two aspects of the Kovalchuk situation), it wouldn't do the same for us.

 

[Alklha]

Funny how Strickland was tweeting on Friday that... "The numbers being tossed around for Pietrangelo are significantly higher than what’s being reported".

Now he's saying that what JR reported is accurate.

 

[joe galiba]

It's basically impossible to get charged with tampering in the NHL now. The League doesn't care and openly accepts how widespread it is. We lost the Stevens case because our management was stupid enough to leave an internal paper trail.

As for the idea we'd get extra picks even if a team came out and admitted it? Not happening. The League bends over backwards to make nonsensical rulings in favour of New Jersey for some reason (both the Stevens case & two aspects of the Kovalchuk situation), it wouldn't do the same for us.

The league had a specific reason for punishing us on the tampering and the offer sheet signings
The rest of the league was pissed at the Blues for the signings, as it raised salaries everywhere, so from the leagues standpoint it made perfect sense-keep teams from doing what the Blues were doing

 

[Alklha]

The league had a specific reason for punishing us on the tampering and the offer sheet signings
The rest of the league was pissed at the Blues for the signings, as it raised salaries everywhere, so from the leagues standpoint it made perfect sense-keep teams from doing what the Blues were doing

I have no problem with the Blues being punished for the tampering.

It made sense for the Blues to have to make a cash payment to the Devils ($1.5m was made) for what they done. But, the Devils made an active decision to match the contract. The Blues were punished by a reasonable number their actions may have inflated it by.

It also made sense that the Blues lose draft picks as punishment and as a deterrent.

What doesn't make sense is for the Devils to receive those draft picks. They didn't lose the services of Stevens, they didn't pay more than they were willing to for Stevens. The "harm" to them is theoretical and covered by the cash payment. There isn't a logical reason for the transfer of the pick, just the Blues forfeiting it. That's what I mean when I talk about the Devils getting oddly favourable ruling from the NHL.

 

[Ranksu]

 

[Alklha]

Had it on for a bit in the background, but there is a lot of stuff they are saying that just isn't really accurate.

Signing bonuses are important, but they can't pay him $50m in the first three years which they keep saying. If Pietrangelo signed a $9m x 7 year deal and the first year paid him $12m, then the lowest salary he can receive in any year would be $7.2m. So the structure would need to be $12m, $12m, $9m, $8.4m, $7.2m, $7.2m & $7.2m. So Toronto could theoretically pay him $32m in the first two calendar years of the deal ($12m, $12m, $8m signing bonus July 1 2022).

However, we have to note the current circumstances around the League. Just because the Leafs are one of the few teams to not have an issue throwing money around in the current economic climate doesn't mean that the ability to do it is a massive advantage. Escrow still applies to signing bonuses, even if the methodology applied isn't laid out in the CBA.

I believe that escrow is capped at 20% next season, ~16% in 21/22, 10% in 22/23 and then 6% in the following seasons. The desire for heavily front-loaded contracts will actually have somewhat tempered with that.

I think an offer of salary in years 1 & 2, signing bonus heavy from year 3 onwards and structured to have a lot of money paid on July 1 2022 & 23 makes a lot of sense for both Pietrangelo & the Blues. Lower escrow for Pietrangelo, long term security with the signing bonuses, the bulk of the contract once escrow comes down. The Blues have the advantage of financial situation recovering and that the bulk of the money is structured in years where we have lower salary commitment (~$29m salary in 22/23, compared to the ~$34m cap hit).

 

[joe galiba]

Mr Caron, from his years in Montreal was well connected with the league offices
He warned Quinn and Sutter not to sign Shanahan before he went off to his yearly fishing trip to the wilderness of Canada
he knew from his sources that Stevens was who would be going back
when he got back from his trip he was pissed

 

[67Blues]

Had it on for a bit in the background, but there is a lot of stuff they are saying that just isn't really accurate.

Signing bonuses are important, but they can't pay him $50m in the first three years which they keep saying. If Pietrangelo signed a $9m x 7 year deal and the first year paid him $12m, then the lowest salary he can receive in any year would be $7.2m. So the structure would need to be $12m, $12m, $9m, $8.4m, $7.2m, $7.2m & $7.2m. So Toronto could theoretically pay him $32m in the first two calendar years of the deal ($12m, $12m, $8m signing bonus July 1 2022).

However, we have to note the current circumstances around the League. Just because the Leafs are one of the few teams to not have an issue throwing money around in the current economic climate doesn't mean that the ability to do it is a massive advantage. Escrow still applies to signing bonuses, even if the methodology applied isn't laid out in the CBA.

I believe that escrow is capped at 20% next season, ~16% in 21/22, 10% in 22/23 and then 6% in the following seasons. The desire for heavily front-loaded contracts will actually have somewhat tempered with that.

I think an offer of salary in years 1 & 2, signing bonus heavy from year 3 onwards and structured to have a lot of money paid on July 1 2022 & 23 makes a lot of sense for both Pietrangelo & the Blues. Lower escrow for Pietrangelo, long term security with the signing bonuses, the bulk of the contract once escrow comes down. The Blues have the advantage of financial situation recovering and that the bulk of the money is structured in years where we have lower salary commitment (~$29m salary in 22/23, compared to the ~$34m cap hit).

You may not be a CBA lawyer but you play one on HF Thanks for the insight and it made me go read the CBA to gain insight as to what you are talking about.

So in effect with the escrow holdback and uncertainty, it would be more advantageous for Petro to backload his contract to keep his guaranteed money higher than the current COVID based escrow percentages? I didn't see anything about the players using the escalator for up to 5% cap increase each year. Did this get tossed out when they renegotiated? If they paused the escalator, then I have to believe that they will push this hard once the league stabilizes after the COVID issues pass. I wonder if the escalator comes back in when the escrow goes back to "normal" in the 2023-2024 season which will be a good time for the Blues in terms of cap space and contracts due.

I read through this to get some of my insight https://hockeyanswered.com/what-is-escrow-in-the-nhl/

 

[Alklha]

You may not be a CBA lawyer but you play one on HF Thanks for the insight and it made me go read the CBA to gain insight as to what you are talking about.

So in effect with the escrow holdback and uncertainty, it would be more advantageous for Petro to backload his contract to keep his guaranteed money higher than the current COVID based escrow percentages? I didn't see anything about the players using the escalator for up to 5% cap increase each year. Did this get tossed out when they renegotiated? If they paused the escalator, then I have to believe that they will push this hard once the league stabilizes after the COVID issues pass. I wonder if the escalator comes back in when the escrow goes back to "normal" in the 2023-2024 season which will be a good time for the Blues in terms of cap space and contracts due.

I read through this to get some of my insight https://hockeyanswered.com/what-is-escrow-in-the-nhl/

How the salary cap is working just now is that the cap is basically locked in at $81.5m until League revenue gets to $4.8b. Then things start to return to a level of normal. So the escalator isn't a factor just now.

To explain escrow for those unsure... players are only entitled to 50% of hockey related revenue (HRR). When the cap is set it is theoretically meant to be based on the estimate of what HRR will be for the following season. Money is then withheld from players paycheques (escrow) through the season to make sure that they don't get over 50% of HRR if it doesn't reach the estimate. So if they expected $4.8b HRR and they only got $4.3b, players are going to lose over 10% of their stated salary for that year.

The new CBA actually lays out a maximum percentage that players can lose in escrow each season for the first time. It is 20% next season, 14-18% in 2021/22, 10% in 22/23 and then 6% thereafter.

That certainty means players largely know that next season they are only making 80% of their stated salary, and it's unlikely it will be more than 80%.

A player will typically want the money up front because they can invest the money and then it's a money makes money situation. However, if he knows that $1m in salary in year 1 only pays $800k and $1m in year 3 pays at least $900k? It seriously mitigates that. If he invested that full $800k on day one and got a 6% yield, he's not getting to $900k by July 1 2022. So deferring the big signing bonuses until 2022-24 has advantages here.

That all ignores the tax situation, which favours St. Louis over Toronto as well.

It's just to say that all the talk that Toronto has this massive advantage to pay so much in years 1 & 2 isn't actually the advantage it would normally be because of the adjustments in escrow.

 

[BlueKnight]

This is from Toronto sports radio that i found on twitter. After listening i don't know what to think. I just want this soap opera to be over with.

https://post.futurimedia.com/chumam/playlist/89/listen-23977.html?cb=1600697149.081322

 

[Blueston]

This is from Toronto sports radio that i found on twitter. After listening i don't know what to think. I just want this soap opera to be over with.

https://post.futurimedia.com/chumam/playlist/89/listen-23977.html?cb=1600697149.081322

I would think you shouldn't listen to Toronto sports radio if you want to maintain your sanity.

 

[67Blues]

How the salary cap is working just now is that the cap is basically locked in at $81.5m until League revenue gets to $4.8b. Then things start to return to a level of normal. So the escalator isn't a factor just now.

To explain escrow for those unsure... players are only entitled to 50% of hockey related revenue (HRR). When the cap is set it is theoretically meant to be based on the estimate of what HRR will be for the following season. Money is then withheld from players paycheques (escrow) through the season to make sure that they don't get over 50% of HRR if it doesn't reach the estimate. So if they expected $4.8b HRR and they only got $4.3b, players are going to lose over 10% of their stated salary for that year.

The new CBA actually lays out a maximum percentage that players can lose in escrow each season for the first time. It is 20% next season, 14-18% in 2021/22, 10% in 22/23 and then 6% thereafter.

That certainty means players largely know that next season they are only making 80% of their stated salary, and it's unlikely it will be more than 80%.

A player will typically want the money up front because they can invest the money and then it's a money makes money situation. However, if he knows that $1m in salary in year 1 only pays $800k and $1m in year 3 pays at least $900k? It seriously mitigates that. If he invested that full $800k on day one and got a 6% yield, he's not getting to $900k by July 1 2022. So deferring the big signing bonuses until 2022-24 has advantages here.

That all ignores the tax situation, which favours St. Louis over Toronto as well.

It's just to say that all the talk that Toronto has this massive advantage to pay so much in years 1 & 2 isn't actually the advantage it would normally be because of the adjustments in escrow.

So in effect, that extra year that the Blues can currently offer on the contract really is much more appealing when compared to a seven year contract since you could stand to lose more on the upfront side until the escrow stabilizes and the HRR grows back above $5bn?

 

[Alklha]

So in effect, that extra year that the Blues can currently offer on the contract really is much more appealing when compared to a seven year contract since you could stand to lose more on the upfront side until the escrow stabilizes and the HRR grows back above $5bn?

The big advantage of the extra year is that we can offer similar dollars over a longer term and the cap hit is more manageable for us. That's about the extent of the advantage there.

TO could structure a deal where the bulk of the money is paid in the middle years, that isn't a problem. It's just that their fans seem to think it's a massive advantage that they are one of the few teams who can throw cash around tomorrow.

This is from Toronto sports radio that i found on twitter. After listening i don't know what to think. I just want this soap opera to be over with.

https://post.futurimedia.com/chumam/playlist/89/listen-23977.html?cb=1600697149.081322

It's Strickland. He's literally trying to cover all his bases so he can say he was right. The numbers he talks about the Blues offering in that piece (neighbourhood of 8x8) is exactly what JR reported on Friday.

He starts by rambling about a nonsensical idea that the Blues could get a "high draft pick" for Pietrangelo's rights. Follows it by talking about how he's always said getting a deal done was about structure. Then somewhat walks that back and spends the rest of the time implying that Pietrangelo isn't really interested in signing in St. Louis, but not willing to actually say that. Pandering to his audience, I assume.