Picks #3 - #10. 2015 vs. 2019

[WingsMJN2965]

Stemmed from a discussion in another thread. Obviously I can't include the top two picks in the draft because 2015 would win in a landslide.

When everybody's career is over, which group do you expect to be better?

2015:

3. Dylan Strome
4. Mitch Marner
5. Noah Hanifin
6. Pavel Zacha
7. Ivan Provorov
8. Zach Werenski
9. Timo Meier
10. Mikko Rantanen

2019:

3. Kirby Dach
4. Bowen Byram
5. Alex Turcotte
6. Moritz Seider
7. Dylan Cozens
8. Phillip Broberg
9. Trevor Zegras
10. Vasily Podkolzin

Click to read more...

 

[x Tame Impala]

Dach and Byram are going to be very good hockey players

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Dach and Byram are going to be very good hockey players

I'm not gonna lie, a lot of the time I make polls it stemmed from an argument and I'm confident the consensus will agree... But this one is pretty interesting for me.

Marner and Rantanen set the bar high, as does Werenski, but I see two top line centers and two top pairing D in 2019, and I think Cozens and Turcotte have a solid shot as average #1Cs and elite #2Cs also.

 

[93LEAFS]

2015. Just think about how people talked about Strome, Hanafin, and Zacha in 2017. There are going to be misses, and two elite forwards, and two top-pairing defencemen is a ridiculous ask for a hit-rate. Especially when none of the 2019 kids have really been huge impact guys in their D+2, when Marner was already a 60 point player, and Werenski was a Calder finalist. Rantanen didn't light it up, but to put it in perspective, he had the best D+1 AHL season ever, and he's still got more points than any player in 2019 is pro-rating 2 over the same amount of games.

Strome, Hanifin and Zacha haven't hit expectations, but all still are competent NHLers in top 9 or top 4 roles. Meier is a 2nd line winger at a minimum.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

2015. Just think about how people talked about Strome, Hanafin, and Zacha in 2017. There are going to be misses, and two elite forwards, and two top-pairing defencemen is a ridiculous ask for a hit-rate. Especially when none of the 2019 kids have really been huge impact guys in their D+2, when Marner was already a 60 point player, and Werenski was a Calder finalist. Rantanen didn't light it up, but to put it in perspective, he had the best D+1 AHL season ever, and he's still got more points than any player in 2019 is pro-rating 2 over the same amount of games.

Strome, Hanifin and Zacha haven't hit expectations, but all still are competent NHLers in top 9 or top 4 roles. Meier is a 2nd line winger at a minimum.

We had talked about this before this thread, but for me, it's not really fair to say, "None of the 2019 kids have really been huge impact guys in their D+2", considering Dach obliterated his wrist and missed most of the season, and Seider wasn't allowed to come over to the NHL and was arguably the best defenseman in the SHL as a 19 year old. To boot, in comparison with your comment about Rantanen having the best D+1 AHL season ever, Seider had one of the best D+1 AHL seasons ever for a defenseman.

Realistically, it's kinda hard to compare the rest of these guys because COVID restrictions have influenced team's decisions on how and when they're gonna bring these guys up. With that being said, Zegras has looked pretty damn good in both the NHL and the AHL.

 

[93LEAFS]

We had talked about this before this thread, but for me, it's not really fair to say, "None of the 2019 kids have really been huge impact guys in their D+2", considering Dach obliterated his wrist and missed most of the season, and Seider wasn't allowed to come over to the NHL and was arguably the best defenseman in the SHL as a 19 year old. To boot, in comparison with your comment about Rantanen having the best D+1 AHL season ever, Seider had one of the best D+1 AHL seasons ever for a defenseman.

Realistically, it's kinda hard to compare the rest of these guys because COVID restrictions have influenced team's decisions on how and when they're gonna bring these guys up. With that being said, Zegras has looked pretty damn good in both the NHL and the AHL.

But he wasn't close to a Calder candidate, and given how the top 2 guys in the class faired the past 2 years who have underperformed what Marner and Werenski did in their d+2 this year, how reasonable is it to expect those guys to do so much better to the extent they play at a 60 point pace as a rookie and another finished 3rd in Calder voting in a stacked Calder class. Rantanen's season was so far ahead of the next comparable for a full season down there its notably better than Seider's when Sandin had a comparable season the year before (not saying better prospect, but a comparable year).

Like, when you look at what the 2015 guys were doing in the NHL in their D+2 years, even with the disadvantages of Dach and Seider, do you really think Seider would have outplayed Werenskis 2016-17 season? Or that Dach who produced comparably to Hughes last year would lap him to the extent he'd be on par with Marner's 65 point pace? Is what Cozens is doing really much more impressive than Zacha? Not that Cozen's will be as disappointing as Zacha, you had much more of a stable NHL baseline at comparable points, and Marner and Rantanen have arguably exceeded the high-expectations they created for themselves in their first two season post draft.

 

[voxel]

2015 >>> 2019 even with my dislike of Strome since draft day.

I do think 2019 has two franchise possible-Hart-level players in Dach and Seider but I don't think the other players will hit their upper-end projections. Broberg/Podkolzin will probably be worse than Zacha/Hanifin. Cozen/Turcotte seem like 2C types. Not a fan of Byram. Zegras probably will have a Marner-like career as a winger... if he is paired with a good C. Uncertain if he is a center long-term.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

But he wasn't close to a Calder candidate, and given how the top 2 guys in the class faired the past 2 years who have underperformed what Marner and Werenski did in their d+2 this year, how reasonable is it to expect those guys to do so much better to the extent they play at a 60 point pace as a rookie and another finished 3rd in Calder voting in a stacked Calder class. Rantanen's season was so far ahead of the next comparable for a full season down there its notably better than Seider's when Sandin had a comparable season the year before (not saying better prospect, but a comparable year).

Like, when you look at what the 2015 guys were doing in the NHL in their D+2 years, even with the disadvantages of Dach and Seider, do you really think Seider would have outplayed Werenskis 2016-17 season? Or that Dach who produced comparably to Hughes last year would lap him to the extent he'd be on par with Marner's 65 point pace? Is what Cozens is doing really much more impressive than Zacha? Not that Cozen's will be as disappointing as Zacha, you had much more of a stable NHL baseline at comparable points, and Marner and Rantanen have arguably exceeded the high-expectations they created for themselves in their first two season post draft.

Who wasn't close to a Calder candidate, Dach? True, he wasn't, but he was also a D+1 compared to those guys as a D+2, and that's with a D+2 and a D+3 defender who both had some of the most ridiculous seasons for rookie D in recent memory. If he had gotten a full, healthy year this year, presumably centering Kane and DeBrincat? Yeah, I think he likely has a really good year.

I'm not defending Hughes and Kakko lol, as I said to include the Top 2 it'd be a massacre. Honestly, if the draft happened today, I don't think I'd take Kakko inside the top 5.

Sandin's offense was comparable to Seider's yes, but that's kinda the same argument that NYR fans have tried to make comparing Lundkvist to Seider. At the end of the day, Seider was drafted as a superb defensive D with what many saw as lackluster offensive talent. Realistically when you consider his defensive ability (Acting as a #1D in both the AHL and the SHL as a teenager) it's not really close, and I think Sandin and Lundkvist are both great prospects. Would Seider have matched Werenski offensively? Not likely, but defensively I think it's a real possibility.

Honestly, I don't think it'd be out of the realm of possibility for Seider to be a Top 3 Calder vote if he'd played this year, like Werenski was. Obviously he's not beating out Kaprizov, but after Kaprizov, it's pretty wide open. The 21-22 Calder is probably gonna be a battle of Byfield vs. 2019 draftees. Nobody from 2021 shows potential to contend.

 

[93LEAFS]

Who wasn't close to a Calder candidate, Dach? True, he wasn't, but he was also a D+1 compared to those guys as a D+2, and that's with a D+2 and a D+3 defender who both had some of the most ridiculous seasons for rookie D in recent memory. If he had gotten a full, healthy year this year, presumably centering Kane and DeBrincat? Yeah, I think he likely has a really good year.

I'm not defending Hughes and Kakko lol, as I said to include the Top 2 it'd be a massacre. Honestly, if the draft happened today, I don't think I'd take Kakko inside the top 5.

Sandin's offense was comparable to Seider's yes, but that's kinda the same argument that NYR fans have tried to make comparing Lundkvist to Seider. At the end of the day, Seider was drafted as a superb defensive D with what many saw as lackluster offensive talent. Realistically when you consider his defensive ability (Acting as a #1D in both the AHL and the SHL as a teenager) it's not really close, and I think Sandin and Lundkvist are both great prospects. Would Seider have matched Werenski offensively? Not likely, but defensively I think it's a real possibility.

Honestly, I don't think it'd be out of the realm of possibility for Seider to be a Top 3 Calder vote if he'd played this year, like Werenski was. Obviously he's not beating out Kaprizov, but after Kaprizov, it's pretty wide open. The 21-22 Calder is probably gonna be a battle of Byfield vs. 2019 draftees. Nobody from 2021 shows potential to contend.

The big thing is though, the 2017 Calder race was pretty crazy. For Werenski even to get nominated out of that field was impressive. Very few rookie classes have 4 forwards break 60 points.

As for close to a Calder candidate, I was referencing Zegras.

I'm not trying to backdoor McDavid or Eichel into the argument. My point about Hughes/Kakko was that even they are underperforming by a notable margin what Marner and Werenski did that year. Arguably lower than Hanifin, and Provorov too. It is hard to expect even without certain guys not being able to play due to loans or injuries that this class would have comparable results reach to expect them to be massively better than the two guys drafted ahead of them .

I get being a fan of a terrible team loading up on prospects. That was all the Leafs had for 10 years. Luckily, most of our top guys hit close to their higher end potential outside of Luke Schenn. But, when talking about 7 picks in the 3-10 range, the hit rate just isn't high. And, there isn't really much you can point to with 2019 which gives much optimism it has a likely chance of passing 2015's guy due to what those guys were doing in the NHL at 19. I've been following the draft pretty closely for 15 to 20 years. There is also immense optimism about classes in the first 2 to 3 years post-draft. People think the sky is the limit. But, in reality, many guys don't progress, get injured, stagnate. To be better than 2015 in that range, you need two guys to become legit star forwards in this league (how many drafts in the past 10 years have 2 star forwards of Rantanen and Marners level in the 3-10 range), plus 2 clear top-pairing guys (who both have arguments as top 25 defenders in the league), plus solid top 9 and top 4 players. Its a big ask.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The big thing is though, the 2017 Calder race was pretty crazy. For Werenski even to get nominated out of that field was impressive. Very few rookie classes have 4 forwards break 60 points.

As for close to a Calder candidate, I was referencing Zegras.

I'm not trying to backdoor McDavid or Eichel into the argument. My point about Hughes/Kakko was that even they are underperforming by a notable margin what Marner and Werenski did that year. Arguably lower than Hanifin, and Provorov too. It is hard to expect even without certain guys not being able to play due to loans or injuries that this class would have comparable results reach to expect them to be massively better than the two guys drafted ahead of them .

I get being a fan of a terrible team loading up on prospects. That was all the Leafs had for 10 years. Luckily, most of our top guys hit close to their higher end potential outside of Luke Schenn. But, when talking about 7 picks in the 3-10 range, the hit rate just isn't high. And, there isn't really much you can point to with 2019 which gives much optimism it has a likely chance of passing 2015's guy due to what those guys were doing in the NHL at 19. I've been following the draft pretty closely for 15 to 20 years. There is also immense optimism about classes in the first 2 to 3 years post-draft. People think the sky is the limit. But, in reality, many guys don't progress, get injured, stagnate. To be better than 2015 in that range, you need two guys to become legit star forwards in this league (how many drafts in the past 10 years have 2 star forwards of Rantanen and Marners level in the 3-10 range), plus 2 clear top-pairing guys (who both have arguments as top 25 defenders in the league), plus solid top 9 and top 4 players. Its a big ask.

Ehh, I mean, 19-20 had three defensemen break 40 points in a shortened season. And three of the four players that broke 60 were all on the same team lol. That comes off more as guys thriving under an offensive system. I don't know that I'd consider that as impressive as 7 guys from different teams breaking 50 points in 17-18. (Worth noting, Boeser and Connor pro-rate over 60+ in 82 games)

As for Zegras, it doesn't seem like he's gonna reach the 25 game requirement to be eligible for the Calder.

I'm clear you weren't trying to backdoor McDavid or Eichel, I'm saying that Hughes/Kakko's flaws just make the Top 2 that much more uncomparable, though Hughes, at least, is improving. Don't think it's really even fair to judge him. He was obviously not ready for the NHL size-wise. The skill is there.

I disagree on the anticipation for 2019's guys. Like I said, outside Broberg and maybe Pod, they've all met if not exceeded expectations. I don't think there was that kind of sustained hype over 2018, 2017, or 2016. Obviously there were standouts, like Heiskanen/Makar/Petterson in 2017, for instance, but 2017 also had guys who were pretty underwhelming from the get-go.

 

[93LEAFS]

Ehh, I mean, 19-20 had three defensemen break 40 points in a shortened season. And three of the four players that broke 60 were all on the same team lol. That comes off more as guys thriving under an offensive system. I don't know that I'd consider that as impressive as 7 guys from different teams breaking 50 points in 17-18. (Worth noting, Boeser and Connor pro-rate over 60+ in 82 games)

As for Zegras, it doesn't seem like he's gonna reach the 25 game requirement to be eligible for the Calder.

I'm clear you weren't trying to backdoor McDavid or Eichel, I'm saying that Hughes/Kakko's flaws just make the Top 2 that much more uncomparable, though Hughes, at least, is improving. Don't think it's really even fair to judge him. He was obviously not ready for the NHL size-wise. The skill is there.

I disagree on the anticipation for 2019's guys. Like I said, outside Broberg and maybe Pod, they've all met if not exceeded expectations. I don't think there was that kind of sustained hype over 2018, 2017, or 2016. Obviously there were standouts, like Heiskanen/Makar/Petterson in 2017, for instance, but 2017 also had guys who were pretty underwhelming from the get-go.

How's Turcotte played up to expectations? Byram is playing well, but is about on par for where you expect him to be.

If a draft class was expected to make an impact on the level of 2015, I'd expect to be seeing a significant level of NHL impact at this point. We simply aren't seeing it. Marner and Werenski were pretty damn good NHLers at this point. And, Rantanen was good being on a horrific team and exploded the next year.

I'd also point out, look at the point totals for 2016-17 and 2017-18 and beyond among top 10 players. For whatever reason we saw a big uptick in scoring again. Matthews finished 2nd in goals with 40, Laine was top 10 in goals. Can't think of many rookie classes that have ever done that.

My point about Hughes and Kakko is that they aren't even playing at the level of the 3rd and 8th overall pick from 2015 in their D+2. The earlier guys make impacts in the NHL the easier it is to project long-term NHL success. Right now, in their d+2 season, the impact of those guys is almost non-existent. Byram is a good player but a 17 minute defenceman. Dach is injured so unable to judge. The rest are in Europe or in the AHL.

 

[Crow]

Too early to say for me.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

How's Turcotte played up to expectations? Byram is playing well, but is about on par for where you expect him to be.

If a draft class was expected to make an impact on the level of 2015, I'd expect to be seeing a significant level of NHL impact at this point. We simply aren't seeing it. Marner and Werenski were pretty damn good NHLers at this point. And, Rantanen was good being on a horrific team and exploded the next year.

I'd also point out, look at the point totals for 2016-17 and 2017-18 and beyond among top 10 players. For whatever reason we saw a big uptick in scoring again. Matthews finished 2nd in goals with 40, Laine was top 10 in goals. Can't think of many rookie classes that have ever done that.

My point about Hughes and Kakko is that they aren't even playing at the level of the 3rd and 8th overall pick from 2015 in their D+2. The earlier guys make impacts in the NHL the easier it is to project long-term NHL success. Right now, in their d+2 season, the impact of those guys is almost non-existent. Byram is a good player but a 17 minute defenceman. Dach is injured so unable to judge. The rest are in Europe or in the AHL.

I'd say he's been roughly on par with expectations. I saw him as a Larkin clone, which is part of the reason I wasn't interested in Detroit drafting him.

We're kinda going in circles on this point, but again, you can't really criticize significant impact when two of the 3 best from 2019's 3-10 couldn't play this year. (Or most of it, in Dach's case)

I wont argue you on the scoring increase between those two years, but in regard to your second point, Barzal was 14th overall in scoring in 17-18, (Matthews 20th, Laine 30th in 16-17) and Boeser pro-rates to just barely being outside the Top 10 in goals.

4th paragraph just kinda reverts up to the 2nd point. I'm not sure why you keep bringing up Hughes and Kakko, and it's getting kinda redundant going over the, "Lack of impact", of others considering Dach's injury and Seider's ineligibility, not to mention the obvious effects COVID has had on roster decisions throughout the season.

 

[Bob Barker]

I was going to say this will still be a landslide after reading the OP. Then I voted, and it is indeed a landslide.

 

[Mike Hasselhoffman]

2015 has 2 elite forwards in Marner and Rantanen plus 2 very good defensemen in Werenski and Provorov, so 2019 will need to have at least that.

Zegras should become an elite forward IMO, but I don’t see any of the other forwards from the 2019 set having the kind of impact that Marner and Rantanen have. As for defensemen I see Seider being an elite one and then Broberg and Byram becoming very good ones with a similar impact as Werenski and Provorov have.

Marner and Rantanen really tip the scales in 2015’s favour.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.