Petterssons ceiling

[bobholly39]

Still not sure how anyone can justify not voting 90+ unless they don't understand the word "ceiling".

Look at all the players who hit 90+ this past season. Guys like Huberdeau, Point, Wheeler. There's no way that's not his ceiling. A ceiling doesn't mean he for sure hits it - it just means that's the highest he can realistically hope for in a perfect storm of a season if all goes well while at his best.

 

[bobholly39]

Honestly, it's probably not a lot higher than it is now. These early years are often proving to be the peak. I mean, look at Crosby. People assumed he'd go on to score 150-200 points a year but his best points haul is still his Sophomore season.

Crosby is a bad example due to all injuries he had - there's a good chance he could have blown past that number in 2011-2013 with no injuries/lockout.

Giroux - his highest point total in his 12th year. 2nd highest in his 5th year
Stamkos - highest point total in his 11th year, 2nd highest is his 4th
Tavares - highest point total in his 10th year, 2nd highest in his 6th year
Kane - Highest point total in his 12th year, 2nd highest in his 9th
Ovechkin - highest point totals in his 3rd and 4th year. I'd argue that like Crosby he's also not your typical point getting superstar though - since after his peak of earning rosses and such, he morphed more into a high goals/low assists player, so overall points take a hit. I think EP is more of a playmaker, so that won't happen.


I think EP has plenty of time to put forth a flagship season.

 

[joe dirte]

Still not sure how anyone can justify not voting 90+ unless they don't understand the word "ceiling".

Look at all the players who hit 90+ this past season. Guys like Huberdeau, Point, Wheeler. There's no way that's not his ceiling. A ceiling doesn't mean he for sure hits it - it just means that's the highest he can realistically hope for in a perfect storm of a season if all goes well while at his best.

Pretty much true. We are talking ceiling. Odds are very good he has a season with 90+.

Is that what he will be regularly? Doubtful.

Also, we have no idea how league scoring will trend.

 

[1865]

Crosby is a bad example due to all injuries he had - there's a good chance he could have blown past that number in 2011-2013 with no injuries/lockout.

Giroux - his highest point total in his 12th year. 2nd highest in his 5th year
Stamkos - highest point total in his 11th year, 2nd highest is his 4th
Tavares - highest point total in his 10th year, 2nd highest in his 6th year
Kane - Highest point total in his 12th year, 2nd highest in his 9th
Ovechkin - highest point totals in his 3rd and 4th year. I'd argue that like Crosby he's also not your typical point getting superstar though - since after his peak of earning rosses and such, he morphed more into a high goals/low assists player, so overall points take a hit. I think EP is more of a playmaker, so that won't happen.

I think EP has plenty of time to put forth a flagship season.

I can't speak for them all, but Giroux is a different kind of development entirely. He just kept improving for 5 years and then had an injury lull too. It's a pretty rare development to keep improving year on year like he does. The trend seems to be superstars coming in good and then basically staying there, injuries permitting.

 

[bobholly39]

Pretty much true. We are talking ceiling. Odds are very good he has a season with 90+.

Is that what he will be regularly? Doubtful.

Also, we have no idea how league scoring will trend.

And just to be clear - the bolded would be his peak, not his ceiling. His ceiling is simply what he *might* do, even if he doesn't ever actually do it.

Ie - Crosby's peak production is 120 points - but his ceiling was probably closer to ~130, as he might have hit that in 2011-2013.

Which makes it even more obvious to me that 90+ is the only answer.

 

[joe dirte]

And just to be clear - the bolded would be his peak, not his ceiling. His ceiling is simply what he *might* do, even if he doesn't ever actually do it.

Ie - Crosby's peak production is 120 points - but his ceiling was probably closer to ~130, as he might have hit that in 2011-2013.

Which makes it even more obvious to me that 90+ is the only answer.

Well, sure, but you can also say that a guy that scores 90 points once, his "peak" is not really a 90 point player, it's more of a 70 point one.

what I mean by that, it's not like Johnathan Cheechoo was a 50 goal player. He had a 50 goal season, but we all know why that was. To be considered a 40 goal scorer, I think it's something you have to be capable of repeating.

I can see Pettersson being capable of being in the top 10 or so, of scoring, on a regular basis. He may hit top five 1 or 2 years, but I doubt he's a regular in it.

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.