Post-Game Talk: Pens 8, Caps 7 (OT) - Pens Win On the 2 Point Conversion

[Jaded-Fan]

Malkin's "problems" with turnovers are vastly overstated. He takes risks. I want him taking risks. I don't have the numbers in front of me but his turnovers year after year are less egregious than you'd think. Particularly when you stack them up next to his takeaways.

And citing +/- to illustrate some sort of difference is failed to begin when you don't look at those situations in context. Did Malkin have any hand in those goals against? I don't recall that he did.

I'm not arguing that he's a lesser player than Crosby. That's pretty well established. But his turnovers have nothing to do with why. I'll take those turnovers all day every day so long as he keeps doing stuff like he did last night.

And I quote myself:

And I say that recognizing that +/- is one of the most reviled stats in sports, but still it provided a good entrance into the thoughts that I have on the two.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

But, I mean... you went ahead and made that leap anyway. So... ?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And I looked it up, some not surprising results but one surprising one. Letang is a turnover machine, among the worst in the NHL with 1.2 turnovers a game. Malkin is way up there as well, with one per game. But Crosby is also up there with one per game:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Which undermines my point to differentiate them with turnovers, but not with dumb penalties.

But explains a lot why the Pens' GAA has ballooned this year, 6th worst in the NHL with over 3 goals per game.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

And Malkin has 34 takeaways. Crosby has 15.

And wow... Burns... what's going on, man? Nearly 100 giveaways halfway through the season?

But yeah... Malkin's dumb penalties? Totally fair game. Though I will say that I feel like he gets some by reputation, too. Like... I'll see other players with the same stick infraction go uncalled a lot.

I guess I just have never understood the uproar over anything less than eye-popping turnover numbers. Turnovers are what happens when talented players take chances and try to create offense. You still need offense to win games. Not everything can be scripted, micromanaged and coached out there if you want any level of success. Sometimes you have to let guys play their game.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

And Malkin has 34 takeaways. Crosby has 15.

And wow... Burns... what's going on, man? Nearly 100 giveaways halfway through the season?

But yeah... Malkin's dumb penalties? Totally fair game. Though I will say that I feel like he gets some by reputation, too. Like... I'll see other players with the same stick infraction go uncalled a lot.

I guess I just have never understood the uproar over anything less than eye-popping turnover numbers. Turnovers are what happens when talented players take chances and try to create offense. You still need offense to win games. Not everything can be scripted, micromanaged and coached out there if you want any level of success. Sometimes you have to let guys play their game.

Yeah, I don't mind the penalties called, like hooks, when he is trying to take the puck away given how good he is at it. But far too many are idiotic penalties, even hooks out of frustration when he gives one away. But most are simply undisciplined whacks like what happened last night in period one.

 

[cygnus47]

And I looked it up, some not surprising results but one surprising one. Letang is a turnover machine, among the worst in the NHL with 1.2 turnovers a game. Malkin is way up there as well, with one per game. But Crosby is also up there with one per game:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Which undermines my point to differentiate them with turnovers, but not with dumb penalties.

But explains a lot why the Pens' GAA has ballooned this year, 6th worst in the NHL with over 3 goals per game.

Of course they are, they handle the puck way more than anyone else. Turnovers without context are impossible to interpret. There's a big difference between trying something in the offensive zone that doesn't pay off and giving the puck vs on the breakout or in the D zone. They were probably similar in the second half of last year.

 

[wgknestrick]

And I looked it up, some not surprising results but one surprising one. Letang is a turnover machine, among the worst in the NHL with 1.2 turnovers a game. Malkin is way up there as well, with one per game. But Crosby is also up there with one per game:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Which undermines my point to differentiate them with turnovers, but not with dumb penalties.

But explains a lot why the Pens' GAA has ballooned this year, 6th worst in the NHL with over 3 goals per game.

Turnovers are just a way of telling you who has the puck. They are meaningless without some sort of rate denominator and the NHL just does not have that data.

IE Turnovers/pass attempt = good data
Turnover/minute played = bad stat
Raw turnovers = bad stat

It also matters where the turnover was made. D-zone vs O-zone

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Of course they are, they handle the puck way more than anyone else. Turnovers without context are impossible to interpret. There's a big difference between trying something in the offensive zone that doesn't pay off and giving the puck vs on the breakout or in the D zone. They were probably similar in the second half of last year.

Actually way less last year:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2015/

Letang and Malkin were around .9 per games, Crosby was at .56 per game.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Turnovers are just a way of telling you who has the puck. They are meaningless without some sort of rate denominator and the NHL just does not have that data.

IE Turnovers/pass attempt = good data
Turnover/minute played = bad stat
Raw turnovers = bad stat

It also matters where the turnover was made. D-zone vs O-zone

Now now don't start with that. We have to pretend that these stats are totally complete and legit and that this is baseball.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Turnovers are just a way of telling you who has the puck. They are meaningless without some sort of rate denominator and the NHL just does not have that data.

IE Turnovers/pass attempt = good data
Turnover/minute played = bad stat
Raw turnovers = bad stat

It also matters where the turnover was made. D-zone vs O-zone

That stat is there:

Malkin is 3.16 per 60 minutes played

Crosby is 3.12 per 60 minutes played

Letang is 2.86 per 60 minutes played

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Mike Liambas of Nashville gives up 15 turnovers every 60 minutes on the ice. One every 4 minutes of ice time.

 

[Shady Machine]

That stat is there:

Malkin is 3.16 per 60 minutes played

Crosby is 3.12 per 60 minutes played

Letang is 2.86 per 60 minutes played

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Mike Liambas of Nashville gives up 15 turnovers every 60 minutes on the ice. One every 4 minutes of ice time.

Right but turnovers/60 minutes isn't relevant on it's own. You'd have to filter by other stats to get a relevant focus group. Malkin's turnovers/60 vs Mike Liambas is as close to a useless stat as I can think of. Malkin's turnovers/60 vs a group of players like him is at least moderately relevant. As wgnestrick said, a better stat would be turnover/pass attempt or something like that.

 

[Mattpilf]

And I looked it up, some not surprising results but one surprising one. Letang is a turnover machine, among the worst in the NHL with 1.2 turnovers a game. Malkin is way up there as well, with one per game. But Crosby is also up there with one per game:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Which undermines my point to differentiate them with turnovers, but not with dumb penalties.

But explains a lot why the Pens' GAA has ballooned this year, 6th worst in the NHL with over 3 goals per game.

The most turnovers players tend to be the ones who are most trusted. We trust Crosby, Malkin and Letang to carry the puck in. Heck Doughty, Mr Transition game and puck possion is top 10.

You know who has one of the least turnovers on the team? Hornqvist, with just 4. They dont' trust Horqvist to carry it through the neutral zone and his playmaking is simple mostly throwing it to the net.

At the very least a turnover to touches ratio would give a better example, but doesn't account for the risks the players take to make great plays when nothing is coming. If someone is skating the puck down the ice, do you want Hornqvist to be that guy or Letang?

 

[Mattpilf]

Right but turnovers/60 minutes isn't relevant on it's own. You'd have to filter by other stats to get a relevant focus group. Malkin's turnovers/60 vs Mike Liambas is as close to a useless stat as I can think of. Malkin's turnovers/60 vs a group of players like him is at least moderately relevant. As wgnestrick said, a better stat would be turnover/pass attempt or something like that.

It would be interesting to see turnover stats by lines or on ice stats. That would at least paint a better picture. Is Malkins line a turnover factory, or does everything just go through him, so he's the one who's always blamed. Would also help account for players who don't get open and force turnovers by not allowing options.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The players with the highest turnover rates in the league are nearly always the most dynamic offensive players, because they always have the puck and are trying to make plays. Those numbers mean nothing.

That said, Geno does have a tendency to turn the puck over in bad areas (ie making an unnecessary move at his own blueline), and I think that's something that distinguishes he and Sid.

 

[SEALBound]

The players with the highest turnover rates in the league are nearly always the most dynamic offensive players, because they always have the puck and are trying to make plays. Those numbers mean nothing.

That said, Geno does have a tendency to turn the puck over in bad areas (ie making an unnecessary move at his own blueline), and I think that's something that distinguishes he and Sid.

Indeed. Name a guy in the top 50 there that you wouldn't want on this team...

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Malkin's situational hockey sense is dicey at times, which is when he makes turnovers or risky dekes that cause me to shake my head. You won't really see stuff like this turn up on a stat sheet though.

He has a propensity late in games when they are protecting leads to essentially be a bonehead and not get the puck deep... instead trying to deke or push pucks around guys in his own end/NZ. Crosby is guilty of it to as are all gifted players who can get away with it and not get a seat on the bench. However, Malkin does tend to do it more often than Crosby.

During the playoffs you see him make much better decisions, but I guess he figures it's the regular season right now so **** it.

 

[billybudd]

The players with the highest turnover rates in the league are nearly always the most dynamic offensive players, because they always have the puck and are trying to make plays. Those numbers mean nothing.

That said, Geno does have a tendency to turn the puck over in bad areas (ie making an unnecessary move at his own blueline), and I think that's something that distinguishes he and Sid.

Right. All turnovers are not created equal. If you're turning the puck over deep in the offensive zone, that's usually inconsequential. It's turnovers at the lines (especially when you're one of the furthest 3 guys back) that kill you and those are the type 71 seems to make more than a lot of guys.

But Malkin's gonna Malkin and you live with it because he scores so freaking much.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

...and again, just to reiterate, the guy is such a massive puckhound that his takeaways really, really go a long way toward offsetting those numbers.

 

[Shady Machine]

Yeah a good example was last night. He skated the puck back into his own zone, with I think a few minutes left in a tie game, and when he got pressured hard and there wasn't a play, he tried to flip it over a Cap, they knocked it down and it resulted in 20 seconds of sustained pressure for the Caps.

I love that he hangs onto pucks and makes plays when others just want to chip the puck out, but given the circumstances and the pressure, a flip through the middle of the ice was a far riskier move that a chip off the boards.

 

[ruunto71*]

at least Malkin isn't cry baby

 

[Honour Over Glory]

And I looked it up, some not surprising results but one surprising one. Letang is a turnover machine, among the worst in the NHL with 1.2 turnovers a game. Malkin is way up there as well, with one per game. But Crosby is also up there with one per game:

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-giveaways-statistic/2016/

Which undermines my point to differentiate them with turnovers, but not with dumb penalties.

But explains a lot why the Pens' GAA has ballooned this year, 6th worst in the NHL with over 3 goals per game.

That stat is stupid because the players that command the puck the most or have the puck on their stick the most, will incur the most turnovers and have a decent amount of take aways as well.

Burns and Karlsson lead all defensemen in give aways, but hey, they're "Norris Caliber Defensemen" dontchaknow...

 

[ColePens]

Let's move to the offday thread.