Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Andy99]

Look at how they are using him. He was against McDrai every shift it seemed like, and winning the matchup consistently. Considering Lars Eller was one of the most stable players in the bottom six, and was fantastic later in the season, a younger version sounds like a nice player.

The Pens don’t have enough top six skill and finishing to do this anymore

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, Smith has 1 year left compared to 6 for Kotkaniemi. Smith will be gone soon enough anyone, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t be if they traded for him.

Like BFD says, I don't think this team has any future once Sid goes so term doesn't mean much to me. But I also don't know if the management is still harboring delusions of rebuilding on the fly, which is why they might be wary of term.

I wish we had a coach that utilized the 3rd line as an all-around line and didn't roll with a 1st line, a 3rd line, and a 4th line and 5th line in the bottom-6.

It is wild seeing the Pens fall into the same trap as the Stillers.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Look at how they are using him. He was against McDrai every shift it seemed like, and winning the matchup consistently. Considering Lars Eller was one of the most stable players in the bottom six, and was fantastic later in the season, a younger version sounds like a nice player.

I mean he's not though. Blueger has played 16 minutes against McDavid in round 2 so far, while McDavid is winning the goal matchup 1-0 and absolutely dominating shot attempts (>75% CF%, SF% and xGF%).

Blueger is getting his absolute butt kicked against McDavid in this round statistically.

 

[Gurglesons]

Reilly Smith having a 40pt season is a bad season, down from established norms. He has one year left then is a UFA.

KK's 40-point season would be ceiling-level play and, at this point, unusual. He's signed for six more years at $4.8mil. KK was a fourth-line player who needed protecting on nightly basis while scoring his whopping one assist in 11 games. His highest ice time in the playoffs was 18 minutes in a double OT game.

Debrusk is a near lock for 20-20 with higher potential who just potted 11 points in 13 playoff games and genuinely being an impact player on the top line on a nightly basis.

You are flat-out wrong here. But given your love for PLD just a mere week ago, no surprised you turned your attention to yet another overpaid shit center with a long term contract.

As per usual, this is your focus. Who is right or wrong?

Nobody is right or wrong about Kotkaniemi. He's a risk.

Here's my mindset. I'd rather take a risk on a player that has something to show and is young who has performed historically, versus giving cap to a UFA who is looking for a payday like Debrusk or sticking with a 33 year old who already has a cup.

Does Kotkaniemi come in and show his worth? Who knows? Same thing with Dubois.

But, I'd rather take a player like that, that has something to prove. Especially given his age.

Furthermore, my focus is on acquiring young pieces that we could potentially flip in a few years. The contract has some positives to it just like PLD if you can get the player back to form. Debrusk's contract is going to be an anchor from day one.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, Smith has 1 year left compared to 6 for Kotkaniemi. Smith will be gone soon enough anyone, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t be if they traded for him.

Who has more juice left in their career over the next two years in potentially pushing us into the playoffs, Reilly Smith or Kotkaniemi who is one year removed from putting up 18 goals and 43 points plus an additional 3 goals and 7 points in the playoffs or Reilly Smith who is 33 was already demoted to third line minutes in the Vegas cup win and looked completely donezo last year?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Who has more juice left in their career over the next two years in potentially pushing us into the playoffs, Reilly Smith or Kotkaniemi who is one year removed from putting up 18 goals and 43 points plus an additional 3 goals and 7 points in the playoffs or Reilly Smith who is 33 was already demoted to third line minutes in the Vegas cup win and looked completely donezo last year?

Reilly Smith because he's a much better player than Kotkaniemi, if we're talking upside.

And then if he sucks, you can just trade him or let him walk for nothing next year. If Kotkaniemi continues to suck, you're stuck with him.

It's a poorly thought out idea.

 

[SEALBound]

As per usual, this is your focus. Who is right or wrong?

Nobody is right or wrong about Kotkaniemi. He's a risk.

Here's my mindset. I'd rather take a risk on a player that has something to show and is young who has performed historically, versus giving cap to a UFA who is looking for a payday like Debrusk or sticking with a 33 year old who already has a cup.

Does Kotkaniemi come in and show his worth? Who knows? Same thing with Dubois.

But, I'd rather take a player like that, that has something to prove. Especially given his age.

Furthermore, my focus is on acquiring young pieces that we could potentially flip in a few years. The contract has some positives to it just like PLD if you can get the player back to form. Debrusk's contract is going to be an anchor from day one.

I have no problem taking risks as long as we do see good potential upside. Look at the guys I've been hyping lately: Drury, Kaliyev, and I've just talked Debrusk, I've talked Marner, and I've suggested Holtz/Mercer is a big swing with Jarry. These are all players that do carry risk, but it's low risk with high reward. "but but but Kaliyev is!!!" Shush, he would be dirt cheap to acquire and the majority of LA fans are saying that he's not getting a fair look in LA and they all believe he will break out with a new team. On the flip, it's practically a universal agreement (rare on HF) that KK is a pile of shit with an anchor contract who like it's not going to get better, or rather eclipse the norm of being a bottom 6 30pt center. If you want KK, let Carolina buy him out then sign him for something that is consistent with his level of play. If they buy him out and we sign him for $2mil for 2 years, no arguments from me. But why in the world would we want to saddle ourselves with a $5mil garbage player for the next 6 years?

All of this is advocating for him and PLD while then shitting on other suggestions of easier-to-obtain players who have a significantly better chance of providing value impact. I can't honestly believe that in a post advocating for KK, you have the gall to type out:

"The contract has some positives to it just like PLD if you can get the player back to form. Debrusk's contract is going to be an anchor from day one."

 

[Gurglesons]

Reilly Smith because he's a much better player than Kotkaniemi, if we're talking upside.

And then if he sucks, you can just trade him or let him walk for nothing next year. If Kotkaniemi continues to suck, you're stuck with him.

It's a poorly thought out idea.

Not at all. And I'm not stuck on him.

He's the type of player that can potentially change this team's trajectory just like PLD if they hit their potential.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not at all. And I'm not stuck on him.

He's the type of player that can potentially change this team's trajectory just like PLD if they hit their potential.

And the downside if they don't hit their potential is having an absolute boat anchor of a contract that will cripple the team in the future.

With PLD, I can at least squint and see the upside, although I don't think he was ever as good as what people said about him. Kotkaniemi? What upside is there, a 40 point fringe 2C/3C? How is that worth the risk?

 

[SEALBound]

Not at all. And I'm not stuck on him.

He's the type of player that can potentially change this team's trajectory just like PLD if they hit their potential.

That's fine. Let Carolina buy him out, then sign him for a cheap 1yr prove it deal just like Dylan Strome did with Washington.

$4.8mil for 6years? Lol, get f***ed KK.

 

[Gurglesons]

I have no problem taking risks as long as we do see good potential upside. Look at the guys I've been hyping lately: Drury, Kaliyev, and I've just talked Debrusk, I've talked Marner, and I've suggested Holtz/Mercer is a big swing with Jarry. These are all players that do carry risk, but it's low risk with high reward. "but but but Kaliyev is!!!" Shush, he would be dirt cheap to acquire and the majority of LA fans are saying that he's not getting a fair look in LA and they all believe he will break out with a new team. On the flip, it's practically a universal agreement (rare on HF) that KK is a pile of shit with an anchor contract who like it's not going to get better, or rather eclipse the norm of being a bottom 6 30pt center. If you want KK, let Carolina buy him out then sign him for something that is consistent with his level of play. If they buy him out and we sign him for $2mil for 2 years, no arguments from me. But why in the world would we want to saddle ourselves with a $5mil garbage player for the next 6 years?

All of this is advocating for him and PLD while then shitting on other suggestions of easier-to-obtain players who have a significantly better chance of providing value impact. I can't honestly believe that in a post advocating for KK, you have the gall to type out:

I mean if I lived in some weird world where I thought Jersey is giving up Mercer or Holtz for a shit goaltender on a shit contract like Jarry, I'm sure I'd be pushing for those dumbass ideas too.

Kaliyev is a nothing burger. LA fans think he's great because he's their prospect. If we can grab him off waivers or in a swap for POJ, sure do it, but he's a low effort, bad skating offense only prospect. He's a classic example of a player that analytics paint as good, but the eye test reinforces why he isn't playing. Mike Sullivan wouldn't give him a second look after an initial stretch and he'd be riding pine shortly.

Debrusk wants to be paid. I don't know if he will be, but he's not the type of player I'm getting in a bidding war for. He's low effort and there is a reason a team like Boston who continues to lose forward depth is likely going to let him walk.

Drury is interesting. I wanted him as the center piece for the Guentzel trade if we had to take back an "NHL contract" over Bunting, but once again, I just don't see the upside.

Koko and PLD are top 5 NHL draft picks. Koko was a great part of the 20-21 Habs run and has performed well in his seasons since outside of last year. PLD similarly has had various seasons and could be an ideal fit at wing.

If you can dump cap on a team and get some small return for taking on either of these contracts its good work in my mind. There a multitude of other players that fall in that realm for me.

What I do not want to do is pay 2nds for prospects like Drury and Kaliyev. I'd rather just play our internal prospects in Puustinen, DOC, and Poulin in those roles.

And the downside if they don't hit their potential is having an absolute boat anchor of a contract that will cripple the team in the future.

With PLD, I can at least squint and see the upside, although I don't think he was ever as good as what people said about him. Kotkaniemi? What upside is there, a 40 point fringe 2C/3C? How is that worth the risk?

How is a 5 million dollar crippling the team in the future lol? Come on.

 

[SEALBound]

When you have to use draft pedigree to advocate acquiring historically underperforming, overpaid, non-impact players with anchor contracts...woof.

 

[Gurglesons]

When you have to use draft pedigree to advocate acquiring historically underperforming, overpaid, non-impact players with anchor contracts...woof.

That's not what I did, but I know having logical discussion is hard for you and Empo.

Weird, I seem to remember you going on some tirade about "having real discussion" or something a few weeks ago.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Whatever the Pens do, it has to at least attempt to address our biggest roster weaknesses...hopefully without maxing out our cap with one move.

Marner is expensive as hell - cap hit and asset wise - and isn't the home run to address our needs he'd need to be to justify the price tag.

As I see it, the most attractive assets to target would be Nichushkin, Stamkos, and PLD. They all have warts, but that's why they're available. Nuke for absolutely everything he brings on the ice, relatively low cap hit, and neglible cost to acquire. Stamkos for what he'd bring in terms of goal scoring, playoff performance, the PP, and neglible cost to acquire. PLD for his size, snarl, ~30 goal/60 point production most years, youth, positional versatility, and the fact that we'd be able to send back a terrible signing or two like Graves.

Not seeing the juice being worth the squeeze with most of the other forward names floating around.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think it's too dramatic to say JK's contract would cripple this team. None of this shit *really* matters anymore, and in reality, we're all probably floating ideas far too lofty for this organization's recent tendencies.

They have two more chances with Sid, and "chances" is doing some ungodly heavy lifting. After that, nobody's anchor contract matters. Shit, this team should be a haven for anchor contracts once Sid's done--accepting other teams' in exchange for picks/prospects.

 

[Gurglesons]

Whatever the Pens do, it has to at least attempt to address our biggest roster weaknesses...hopefully without maxing out our cap with one move.

Marner is expensive as hell - cap hit and asset wise - and isn't the home run to address our needs he'd need to be to justify the price tag.

As I see it, the most attractive assets to target would be Nichushkin, Stamkos, and PLD. They all have warts, but that's why they're available. Nuke for absolutely everything he brings on the ice, relatively low cap hit, and neglible cost to acquire. Stamkos for what he'd bring in terms of goal scoring, playoff performance, the PP, and neglible cost to acquire. PLD for his size, snarl, ~30 goal/60 point production most years, youth, positional versatility, and the fact that we'd be able to send back a terrible signing or two like Graves.

Not seeing the juice being worth the squeeze with most of the other forward names floating around.

This is my mindset behind acquiring Kotkaniemi in a cap swap with Smith.

It shaves off 250k and gives you a center that can actually fit in if Sid or Malkin goes down while also a player who projects in a bottom six role.

Same mindset as PLD if you can move out Graves or Jarry in the deal. Although, based on the comments from Blake, it doesn't seem like PLD will be moved.

Nichuskin and Stamkos are no goes for me. Nichuskin embodies too much risk. You're basically forced to start the season negative six million because you have to have that cap space open for when he returns.

Stamkos despite the raw stats fell off hard this year. I also imagine if he leaves Tampa he wants cash.

I think it's too dramatic to say JK's contract would cripple this team. None of this shit *really* matters anymore, and in reality, we're all probably floating ideas far too lofty for this organization's recent tendencies.

They have two more chances with Sid, and "chances" is doing some ungodly heavy lifting. After that, nobody's anchor contract matters. Shit, this team should be a haven for anchor contracts once Sid's done--accepting other teams' in exchange for picks/prospects.

The other benefit of the deal lol. If it is an anchor, it's probably a good thing in a couple years lol.

 

[SEALBound]

That's not what I did, but I know having logical discussion is hard for you and Empo.

Weird, I seem to remember you going on some tirade about "having real discussion" or something a few weeks ago.

Ah yes, typical reply - a snide remark without context while standing in a pool of hypocrisy. My comment then was purely centered on you and some other PensX newsletter subscribers bemoaning the same single point about the Guentzel trade. Hell, you literally were just having another pitty party in a main board thread with your washed out "Dubas gave up value because Bunting!" comment while knowing full well Bunting was one of, if not thee, best wingers for us down the stretch. But yeah, don't let logic get in your way, right?

Take a walk.

 

[SEALBound]

Whatever the Pens do, it has to at least attempt to address our biggest roster weaknesses...hopefully without maxing out our cap with one move.

Marner is expensive as hell - cap hit and asset wise - and isn't the home run to address our needs he'd need to be to justify the price tag.

As I see it, the most attractive assets to target would be Nichushkin, Stamkos, and PLD. They all have warts, but that's why they're available. Nuke for absolutely everything he brings on the ice, relatively low cap hit, and neglible cost to acquire. Stamkos for what he'd bring in terms of goal scoring, playoff performance, the PP, and neglible cost to acquire. PLD for his size, snarl, ~30 goal/60 point production most years, youth, positional versatility, and the fact that we'd be able to send back a terrible signing or two like Graves.

Not seeing the juice being worth the squeeze with most of the other forward names floating around.

This is where you and Gurgs lose people though.

With all of the names being floated around, you two believe:

• 34yo Stamkos, whose play has declined to the point he's a mere PP specialist at this point
• Nichushkin, who was just suspended for 6 months because of substance abuse
• KK, who is a literal buyout candidate right now with a boat anchor of a contract
• PLD, who is having the same issues on his third team with a major boat anchor of a contract

Are the only players whose "juice is worth the squeeze"...while guys like Marner, Stephenson, Debrusk, Drury...would NOT be. Because THOSE guys...IF they hit their POTENTIAL...would solve this team's greatest weaknesses. ...because NONE of other guys who, if they just maintained their current, well-established level of play...could.

Okay...sure.

 

[Empoleon8771]

People bitch and moan about how bad Graves' contract is here, but apparently Kotkaniemi's deal (which is longer and cost more money) wouldn't be a problem?

Okay.

 

[Gurglesons]

People bitch and moan about how bad Graves' contract is here, but apparently Kotkaniemi's deal (which is longer and cost more money) wouldn't be a problem?

Okay.

Graves is a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Kotkainiemi is a middle six forward.

A lot easier to hide 5 million amongst 12 forwards versus hiding 4.5 amongst 6 defensemen.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ah yes, typical reply - a snide remark without context while standing in a pool of hypocrisy. My comment then was purely centered on you and some other PensX newsletter subscribers bemoaning the same single point about the Guentzel trade. Hell, you literally were just having another pitty party in a main board thread with your washed out "Dubas gave up value because Bunting!" comment while knowing full well Bunting was one of, if not thee, best wingers for us down the stretch. But yeah, don't let logic get in your way, right?

Take a walk.

Dubas did give up value because of Bunting. Bunting having some goals in a 15 game stretch really means nothing to me in the long run. Dubas hyper focused on quantity and familiarity over quality in the Jake trade. It was and is a huge blemish on an already shitty job he has done here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Dubas did give up value because of Bunting. Bunting having some goals in a 15 game stretch really means nothing to me in the long run. Dubas hyper focused on quantity and familiarity over quality in the Jake trade. It was and is a huge blemish on an already shitty job he has done here.

Yet you keep saying that the Guentzel deal for Carolina was a "home run" because he put up some goals in a 15 game stretch that means nothing in the long run.

Graves is a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Kotkainiemi is a middle six forward.

A lot easier to hide 5 million amongst 12 forwards versus hiding 4.5 amongst 6 defensemen.

If Kotkaniemi was actually a "middle-6 forward", Carolina wouldn't be thinking about buying him out.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yet you keep saying that the Guentzel deal for Carolina was a "home run" because he put up some goals in a 15 game stretch that means nothing in the long run.

I'm not sure I get the correlation. The issue with acquring Bunting is he is another 28-30 range forward who doesn't have size, who doesn't produce great, and takes up a significant amount of cap with term.

The Guentzel trade was a home run for Carolina because they have a treasure trove of near NHL locks as prospects, a 1st round pick, and other more interesting roster pieces and we got none of them.

If Kotkaniemi was actually a "middle-6 forward", Carolina wouldn't be thinking about buying him out.

Kotkaniemi is a middle six forward. One bad season doesn't suddenly erase the fact he had 40+ points last season and typically skews for 33.

I'm also confused how his contract is franchise altering or whatever you said.. I honestly don't see any issue at all with us absorbing this contract.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not sure I get the correlation.


Kotkaniemi is a middle six forward. One bad season doesn't suddenly erase the fact he had 40+ points last season and typically skews for 33.

View attachment 872959

I'm also confused how his contract is franchise altering or whatever you said.. I honestly don't see any issue at all with us absorbing this contract.

Kotkaniemi has had middle-6 production literally once in his career.

Putting up 33 points per 82 games is not "middle-6 production".

 

[Darren McCord]

Man you’re all crazy arguing over a bunch of players who suck. Can’t wait for offseason to be over already