Tribute Penguins Player Rankings: Lucky #13

[ChaosAgent]

1. Crosby (70%)
2. Geno (82.5%)
3. Letang (considered a formality, 17.5% of the #2 poll)
4. Guentzel (85%)
5. Dumoulin (73%)
6. Rust (50%)
7. Kapanen (58%)
8. Carter (71%)
9. Marino (44%)
10. Blueger (38%)
11. Zucker (68%)
12. Matheson (55%)

This is a limited poll for now, the position groups will expand after these 3 options which IMO represent a clear line of demarcation. I'll give this one a couple of days.

Click to read more...

 

[Ugene Magic]

I'm not going to get too stressed out, but this is Jarry's time.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Mike Sullivan asked me to write in Dom Simon.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Some of you wankers will want to hate on Jarry but a lot of last season can be things we all want to forget for so many reasons and one of them was the Season Jarry had.

But I have faith in him. We sat through 3 seasons of Murray shitting the bed and then dragging ass all over the carpet. One very bad year and you lot want to dump him?

I voted Jars.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Mike Sullivan asked me to write in Dom Simon.

Sullivan is forcing ZAR to change his number back so his boy Simon can be #12 again.

 

[Andy99]

I can’t believe ZAR isn’t listed….I put McGinn,who’s never played for us, over any one else who’s left lol…

 

[ChaosAgent]

I can’t believe ZAR isn’t listed….I put McGinn,who’s never played for us, over any one else who’s left lol…

Sometimes polls with a gazillion options are appropriate. Sometimes they aren't. I guess you could argue ZAR in the same tier as McGinn. You could also argue DeSmith in with Jarry, for the minority of the fanbase that thinks CDS is actually better. But neither ZAR nor DeSmith would have any chance of winning this. It woulda been one of these 3 guys.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Sometimes polls with a gazillion options are appropriate. Sometimes they aren't. I guess you could argue ZAR in the same tier as McGinn. You could also argue DeSmith in with Jarry, for the minority of the fanbase that thinks CDS is actually better. But neither ZAR nor DeSmith would have any chance of winning this. It woulda been one of these 3 guys.

Well CDS's stats are certainly better over their careers so far.
Pretty comparable games played totals too: 101 for Jarry to 70 for CDS.

I would also argue CDS often gets tougher starts in which the Pens are on the back end of a B2B and are tired, with not much goal support.

This coming from a guy who's pretty invested in Jarry, since he grew up in my neighbourhood. If people aren't giving CDS the edge right now then it's likely due to his run in with the law, rather than anything logical.

I agree that Jarry's ceiling is higher, but that's only relevant if you play that way. Otherwise it's just pie in the sky.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Well CDS's stats are certainly better over their careers so far.
Pretty comparable games played totals too: 101 for Jarry to 70 for CDS.

I would also argue CDS often gets tougher starts in which the Pens are on the back end of a B2B and are tired, with not much goal support.

This coming from a guy who's pretty invested in Jarry, since he grew up in my neighbourhood. If people aren't giving CDS the edge right now then it's likely due to his run in with the law, rather than anything logical.

I agree that Jarry's ceiling is higher, but that's only relevant if you play that way. Otherwise it's just pie in the sky.

This is a fair point. The team a (biased) evaluator of Jarry and DeSmith has deemed Jarry the starter making $3.5M annually and DeSmith the backup making far less. They also protected Jarry in the ED. Is that my favorite argument to make? No. But given the weirdness around goalies I wouldn't be surprised if backups regularly had better or comparable stats to starters.

Jarry has been very good during the '19-'20 season and the middle of the '20-'21 season. He had a brutally bad playoff series which is undeniable. But there's been a sizable amount of good in Jarry's play the last couple of years as well.

My distaste for 12-player polls aside, this is a quality post and a good argument for why we should "open up" the polling as soon as the next round to let posters make these well-reasoned pleas for players. Like, if someone wants to argue ZAR/EROD analytics or Riikola offensive ability or Zohorna being a physical beast or DeSmith > Jarry, that's good discussion on this board.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

This is a fair point. The team a (biased) evaluator of Jarry and DeSmith has deemed Jarry the starter making $3.5M annually and DeSmith the backup making far less. They also protected Jarry in the ED. Is that my favorite argument to make? No. But given the weirdness around goalies I wouldn't be surprised if backups regularly had better or comparable stats to starters.

Jarry has been very good during the '19-'20 season and the middle of the '20-'21 season. He had a brutally bad playoff series which is undeniable. But there's been a sizable amount of good in Jarry's play the last couple of years as well.

My distaste for 12-player polls aside, this is a quality post and a good argument for why we should "open up" the polling as soon as the next round to let posters make these well-reasoned pleas for players. Like, if someone wants to argue ZAR/EROD analytics or Riikola offensive ability or Zohorna being a physical beast or DeSmith > Jarry, that's good discussion on this board.

The key with progress on this board is to do everything in your power to dissuade making discussion personal. Bring up new topics, ignore jerks when insulted (I struggle with this), try to encourage less active users into contributing more, posting more about non hockey related stuff when nothing is happening, etc...

I actually think it's been a fairly good summer for the board, whenever I checked in. Considering how little interesting Pens topics there are at the moment, people have made an effort to raise their game a little. The respect level has been pretty ok and more posts are paragraphs instead of one-liners.

My point being that I highly encourage you and others to do what you're suggesting, and allow room for more outside views. Riikola's usage was weird here and some will think higher of him than others. I also believe that Zahorna has some pretty sneaky upside, as well as Center experience in Czech (quite recently) that will be an asset soon when (not if ) the injury plague hits.

We'll get some actual juicy stuff to talk about soon thankfully.

 

[Pens x]

McGinn

Jarry is trash.

 

[Peat]

Well CDS's stats are certainly better over their careers so far.
Pretty comparable games played totals too: 101 for Jarry to 70 for CDS.

I would also argue CDS often gets tougher starts in which the Pens are on the back end of a B2B and are tired, with not much goal support.

This coming from a guy who's pretty invested in Jarry, since he grew up in my neighbourhood. If people aren't giving CDS the edge right now then it's likely due to his run in with the law, rather than anything logical.

I agree that Jarry's ceiling is higher, but that's only relevant if you play that way. Otherwise it's just pie in the sky.

Jarry's taller, has a higher quality save percentage over his career, and has done more starter workload goaltending. I doubt DeSmith's save percentage/goals saved over would look as good if he did as much starter workload stretches.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Jarry's taller, has a higher quality save percentage over his career, and has done more starter workload goaltending. I doubt DeSmith's save percentage/goals saved over would look as good if he did as much starter workload stretches.

I wonder if there's been a goalie deepdive on why the backup often looks better than the starter.

Like the variance on SV% between goalies is so incredibly small, virtually all of them except Matt Murray save between 90 and 92 of the 100 shots they face.

Also @AuroraBorealis is saying that the team's performance and defensive structure is intrinsically worse in B2B games. I get the thinking but that is not inherently true. There's also arguments that performance would be the same. There's also a case to be made that a more tired team = a more structured team and/or that they would feel obligated to insulate the backup.

 

[The Old Master]

same

 

[Peat]

I wonder if there's been a goalie deepdive on why the backup often looks better than the starter.

Like the variance on SV% between goalies is so incredibly small, virtually all of them except Matt Murray save between 90 and 92 of the 100 shots they face.

Also @AuroraBorealis is saying that the team's performance and defensive structure is intrinsically worse in B2B games. I get the thinking but that is not inherently true. There's also arguments that performance would be the same. There's also a case to be made that a more tired team = a more structured team and/or that they would feel obligated to insulate the backup.

Not that I've seen, but the answer does seem intuitive. It's tiring. Same reason a lot of players can't sustain performance when taking big minutes 5v5, and why workhorse goalies who'll do 60 games are out of fashion. I guess it would be interesting to look at how much of top teams they get, what effect team fatigue has on back to back games, whether teams play more structured in front of back ups (my guess is no unless it's some AHLer where they really feel the need to), etc.etc. But there's a really big one in terms of the physical workload right there.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Voted McGinn.

If he wins can we get an Erod or Zar in?

We still have Freidman can we have him In added. I ain't voting for the 2 names after McGinn even if they may or may not deserve 13 or 14 or 15.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Voted McGinn.

If he wins can we get an Erod or Zar in?

We still have Freidman can we have him In added. I ain't voting for the 2 names after McGinn even if they may or may not deserve 13 or 14 or 15.

I was going to add a few names after this poll. All 3 of those names will be added.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I was going to add a few names after this poll. All 3 of those names will be added.

My reading comprehension is poor and I thought you would turn the list into 2 names.

I appreciate the continuous hard work

 

[ChaosAgent]

My reading comprehension is poor and I thought you would turn the list into 2 names.

I appreciate the continuous hard work

It is a labor of love.

Now that Jarry looks like he'll pull this out, given the feedback about wanting more options the next poll will include:

DeSmith, Petts, Riiks, POJ, Friedman, McGinn, ZAR, ERod, Heinen, Zohorna

 

[ChaosAgent]

@Scandale du Jour @Zirakzigil

Please close, amigos