Prospect Info: Penguins #12 prospect

[Randy Butternubs]

Guentzel, he and Archibald have me really excited for the Mavs this season. I hope to catch at least a couple games.

Archibald won't be with the Mavs this season.

 

[Corvidae]

Archibald won't be with the Mavs this season.

Yeah, he'll be playing for Wheeling or 4th line in WBS. #BarryGoers

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

We hardly had any 2nd or 3rd round picks under Shero. He did quite well at drafting, we just kept giving away too many picks.

These are the following 2nd and 3rd round picks under Shero:
2006- Sneep, Strait
2007- Veilleux, Bortuzzo, Pierro-Zabotel
2008- None
2009- Samuelsson, Hanowski
2010- Rust
2011- Harrington
2012- Blueger, Sundqvist, Murray
2013- Jarry, Guentzel

Of the above, only Harrington and potentially Jarry have a good chance of being a top four D/top goalie. Sundqvist has a shot at being a top nine forward. The rest are either outright busts, guys who are long shots to being NHL regulars, or guys who max out as 4th liners/bottom pairing defenders.

IMO, that's not "good drafting", especially with your 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

[Ogrezilla]

These are the following 2nd and 3rd round picks under Shero:
2006- Sneep, Strait
2007- Veilleux, Bortuzzo, Pierro-Zabotel
2008- None
2009- Samuelsson, Hanowski
2010- Rust
2011- Harrington
2012- Blueger, Sundqvist, Murray
2013- Jarry, Guentzel

Of the above, only Harrington and potentially Jarry have a good chance of being a top four D/top goalie. Sundqvist has a shot at being a top nine forward. The rest are either outright busts, guys who are long shots to being NHL regulars, or guys who max out as 4th liners/bottom pairing defenders.

IMO, that's not "good drafting", especially with your 2nd and 3rd round picks.

What percentage of 2nd and 3rd round picks do you think become regulars in the NHL?

And I don't see how you can discount Bortuzzo, Strait or Samuelsson.

 

[penguins2946*]

I don't see how Murray is a long shot to be an NHLer/bust while Jarry is potentially a top goalie. Anyway, Guentzel and Sundqvist both have top-9 upside and Hanowski will probably be a regular for Calgary next year. That also doesn't mention that Samuelsson, Bortuzzo and Strait are at least #7 D in the NHL. Shero didn't hit any home runs with his 2nd or 3rd rounders (Harrington may be one), but it seems like he picked quote a few players that will carve out careers as bottom-6ers or depth D. That's not what you really want from your high picks though.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I don't see how Murray is a long shot to be an NHLer/bust while Jarry is potentially a top goalie. Anyway, Guentzel and Sundqvist both have top-9 upside and Hanowski will probably be a regular for Calgary next year. That also doesn't mention that Samuelsson, Bortuzzo and Strait are at least #7 D in the NHL. Shero didn't hit any home runs with his 2nd or 3rd rounders (Harrington may be one), but it seems like he picked quote a few players that will carve out careers as bottom-6ers or depth D. That's not what you really want from your high picks though.

Yeah... I agree with this.

Shero didn't do awful work with his 2nd and 3rd round picks. He was just a little too safe, sometimes. Which could be said about his tenure in more ways than just the draft, I suppose.

 

[Shady Machine]

What percentage of 2nd and 3rd round picks do you think become regulars in the NHL?

And I don't see how you can discount Bortuzzo, Strait or Samuelsson.

Agreed. Depending on how the last few turn out, it's actually pretty decent drafting. We don't have any Saad's in that list, but Strait, Bortuzzo, Sammy are likely all NHL'ers for at least a few years. If Sundqvist and Jarry pan out, it's a solid list.

Edit: And then of course there's Harrington. I'd complain more about the upside of these guys and their position more than the success rate.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'd complain more about the upside of these guys and their position more than the success rate.

This IS my complaint. I specifically mentioned top six forward/top four defensemen. Shero drafted very few guys who have top six forward/top four defenseman upside.

I didn't include Bortuzzo, Strait, or Samuelsson because of that fact. Realistically, they won't be any more than bottom pairing guys.

Shero's 2nd/3rd round drafting hasn't done much to add impact guys to the roster. Depth/filler, sure. But top end upside?

 

[penguins2946*]

Of those 2nd and 3rd round picks, I see Harrington becoming a good middle pair shutdown D, one of Murray or Jarry becoming an average starter (whichever one wins the WBS battle in 15-16, the loser busts), Rust a decent gritty 3rd liner, Hanowski a decent scoring 3rd liner, Sundqvist a good 3rd line center, and Samuelsson, Bortuzzo and Strait as decent bottom pair D. Is that good drafting? He would make a lot of NHLers, but only 1 or 2 as anything special.

 

[Ogrezilla]

So you are both assuming Guentzel is a bust already?

 

[penguins2946*]

So you are both assuming Guentzel is a bust already?

The only prospect that I think will definitely bust is Blueger, but I'm really low on him for some reason. I don't know what to expect from Guentzel, so I declined to comment on him. I'm going to wait to see how he does this year and how much weight he adds on to make a judgement on him.

 

[Shady Machine]

Yeah I think Blueger will bust as well.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Guentzel was and still is a pick I like a lot. But he probably has a tough road ahead of him. Going the NCAA route will help him beef up moreso than if he were in the CHL, at least. Assuming he's able to put good weight on. Some guys just can't.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Add Uher.

 

[jmelm]

Guentzel, then Wilson.

Blueger has to have a big year to put himself back on the proepsect map. He's had two disappointing years, particularly this past year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

So you are both assuming Guentzel is a bust already?

If you're referring to me, I'd put him in the longshot category. I don't think he's a bust at this point, but I also wouldn't consider him close to a sure thing.

 

[Ogrezilla]

If you're referring to me, I'd put him in the longshot category. I don't think he's a bust at this point, but I also wouldn't consider him close to a sure thing.

its very hard to find sure thing scoring line wings after the first round.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

its very hard to find sure thing scoring line wings after the first round.

And yet other teams have managed to do it on occasion.

I don't expect Shero to land a 30 goal scorer with every 2nd or 3rd round pick he had, but it would be nice if there was at least one guy among the guys he selected over the past 7 or 8 drafts who actually panned out or projects to be that kind of player.

 

[Zero Pucks]

This IS my complaint. I specifically mentioned top six forward/top four defensemen. Shero drafted very few guys who have top six forward/top four defenseman upside.

I didn't include Bortuzzo, Strait, or Samuelsson because of that fact. Realistically, they won't be any more than bottom pairing guys.

Shero's 2nd/3rd round drafting hasn't done much to add impact guys to the roster. Depth/filler, sure. But top end upside?

I think you're lucky to draft a player that even plays in the NHL after the first round. If they're a high impact player, then great. Also, what do you/we really know about a players upside when they're drafted? It's easy to look at that list and point out all the busts. But if you look at a player like Sneep, he looked like he had a lot of potential. A 6'4 mobile two-way defenseman that just won the Mr. Hockey award doesn't really scream bottom pairing defenseman at first sight.

 

[Ogrezilla]

And yet other teams have managed to do it on occasion.

I don't expect Shero to land a 30 goal scorer with every 2nd or 3rd round pick he had, but it would be nice if there was at least one guy among the guys he selected over the past 7 or 8 drafts who actually panned out or projects to be that kind of player.

If you're calling it 7 or 8 drafts, you need to wait to see what happens with Guenztel before you say he hasn't gotten any.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think you're lucky to draft a player that even plays in the NHL after the first round.

To a point. But the good clubs get impact players, while the average ones get bottom six NHL players.

The Pens 2005 draft was amazing. Why? Not because 3 players panned out, but because two of them became elite players. If Crosby and Letang ended up being just bottom six forward/bottom pairing defenseman, the complexion of how great that draft was completely changes.

And that's my complaint about Shero. He's managed to amass a bunch of potential bottom six guys, but where's the high end talent? IMO, especially his 2nd/3rd round picks have lacked in the higher end talent.

IMO, I'd rather a team get 1 impact player and 6 busts in a draft than get 3 NHL regulars who top out as bottom six players in a draft, even if the latter has better quantity.

If you're calling it 7 or 8 drafts, you need to wait to see what happens with Guenztel before you say he hasn't gotten any.

Guentzel is a longshot. There's just as much chance of him busting as their is him making it. A guy like Bennett or Kapanen, in comparison, are guys who *may* bust, but who have a good chance of actually being top six wingers.

My point is Shero's had enough 2nd/3rd round picks that he should have been able to find a few more Tatars/Marchands/Saads at some point during those 7 years than he has.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Guentzel is a longshot. There's just as much chance of him busting as their is him making it. A guy like Bennett or Kapanen, in comparison, are guys who *may* bust, but who have a good chance of actually being top six wingers.

My point is Shero's had enough 2nd/3rd round picks that he should have been able to find a few more Tatars/Marchands/Saads at some point during those 7 years than he has.

If Guentzel wasn't a longshot, he'd have been a first rounder. How many Tatars, Marchands and Saads have there been in that time?

 

[Ogrezilla]

I'm not saying the drafting has been great. I just think it gets exaggerated.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm not saying the drafting has been great. I just think it gets exaggerated.

So you basically agree with me that the drafting hasn't been great, but you think I'm exaggerating saying the drafting hasn't been great?

IMO, it's near the bottom of the league when it comes to what Shero did with rounds 2 and 3. There may be a bit of quantity there (Bortuzzo, Strait, Samuelsson, etc.), but there's very little high end quality.

 

[Ogrezilla]

So you basically agree with me that the drafting hasn't been great, but you think I'm exaggerating saying the drafting hasn't been great?

IMO, it's near the bottom of the league when it comes to what Shero did with rounds 2 and 3. There may be a bit of quantity there (Bortuzzo, Strait, Samuelsson, etc.), but there's very little high end quality.

And that's where we disagree. It was average imo. You listed too many NHL players that you are simply discounting for me to consider it near the bottom of the league. Add in Harrington and potential guys like Sundqvist, Jarry, Murray and Guentzel and there is room for it to turn out above average with a longshot of being very good. Out of 16 potential 2nd and 3rd round picks, if he drafted 3 bottom pairing d-men and 2 - 4 impact players that is above average. We will need to wait and see what happens with some of these guys to really say.

If you want to cut out the recent stuff from the equation for now, then he drafted 3 NHL d-men in the first 4 years. Not high impact guys, but you can't get 3 NHL players out of 8 picks and say its near the bottom of the league.