PDO nonsense

[VoynovsParoleOfficer]

All you hear from people when talking about the rangers is PDO and i think its hilarious. Same exact people who called they would somehow be a bottom 5-10 team in the league and called for a blow up of a team. Now were 13-4 and everyone jumps on PDO, First off it goes without saying that the goal scoring will fall drastically because nobody scores at this rate, and when it does the PDO will balance but idk if people who say PDO havent watched the rangers but they create chances that other teams just do not create with the puck movement and speed that we generate, thus the PDO ridiculousness. The "highlight reel" goals are actually sustainable because they arent dangling defenders and getting puck bounces they are moving the puck and themselves around like an all star team. Obviously when its going good its going great and goalies start losing confidence and letting in squeakers (kevin hayes clap bomb on markstrom) but besides that 7 goals on 26 shots was hardly poor goal tending because the plays are just so efficient. It really wouldn't surprise me if they have one of the higher shooting percentages in recent times come season end because they are a pass first team with almost 3 and a half lines of talent and speed. You'll run into hot goalies here and there but in general its going to be hard to stop the onslaught of goals especially considering its coming from everywhere and the top end players havent even done core damage since first 6 games.

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[Cassano]

It doesn't take into account of shot quality (HD chances), which the Rangers are the best in the league at...

 

[Machinehead]

You don't understand PDO.

PDO isn't a projection, it's an objective reality. It's probably the most reliable stat in sports. Regression towards 100 is inevitable, it's something you can plan on. The sun rises and PDO regresses to the mean. This isn't something the advanced stats community is predicting. It WILL happen. That's hockey.

Some teams are "better" at it than others but there's a range. The Rangers are operating way above that range.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

It doesn't take into account of shot quality (HD chances), which the Rangers are the best in the league at...

Rush teams like the Rangers tend to have more high-danger chances, and those chances have an intrinsically higher shot percentage.

Add into the mix that the Rangers have always gotten far better than league average goaltending, and it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that our PDO is going to be an outlier.

Now, for many other teams, its a predictor of whether or not you're getting lucky or unlucky, but opposing fans waiting on a NYR PDO crash are going to be disappointed.

 

[aufheben]

All you hear from people when talking about the rangers is PDO and i think its hilarious. Same exact people who called they would somehow be a bottom 5-10 team in the league and called for a blow up of a team. Now were 13-4 and everyone jumps on PDO, First off it goes without saying that the goal scoring will fall drastically because nobody scores at this rate, and when it does the PDO will balance but idk if people who say PDO havent watched the rangers but they create chances that other teams just do not create with the puck movement and speed that we generate, thus the PDO ridiculousness. The "highlight reel" goals are actually sustainable because they arent dangling defenders and getting puck bounces they are moving the puck and themselves around like an all star team. Obviously when its going good its going great and goalies start losing confidence and letting in squeakers (kevin hayes clap bomb on markstrom) but besides that 7 goals on 26 shots was hardly poor goal tending because the plays are just so efficient. It really wouldn't surprise me if they have one of the higher shooting percentages in recent times come season end because they are a pass first team with almost 3 and a half lines of talent and speed. You'll run into hot goalies here and there but in general its going to be hard to stop the onslaught of goals especially considering its coming from everywhere and the top end players havent even done core damage since first 6 games.

It seems like you agree with it then?

 

[aufheben]

You don't understand PDO.

PDO isn't a projection, it's an objective reality. It's probably the most reliable stat in sports. Regression towards 100 is inevitable, it's something you can plan on. The sun rises and PDO regresses to the mean. This isn't something the advanced stats community is predicting. It WILL happen. That's hockey.

Some teams are "better" at it than others but there's a range. The Rangers are operating way above that range.

When? I don't understand what you mean by this. The Rangers PDO has been well above 100 for 2 straight seasons before this year.

 

[Machinehead]

It seems like you agree with it then?

 

[Crease]

You don't understand PDO.

PDO isn't a projection, it's an objective reality. It's probably the most reliable stat in sports. Regression towards 100 is inevitable, it's something you can plan on. The sun rises and PDO regresses to the mean. This isn't something the advanced stats community is predicting. It WILL happen. That's hockey.

Some teams are "better" at it than others but there's a range. The Rangers are operating way above that range.

You make it sound like it's statistically impossible to have a season outside this range. Is that true?

 

[Kakko]

You don't understand PDO.

PDO isn't a projection, it's an objective reality. It's probably the most reliable stat in sports. Regression towards 100 is inevitable, it's something you can plan on. The sun rises and PDO regresses to the mean. This isn't something the advanced stats community is predicting. It WILL happen. That's hockey.

Some teams are "better" at it than others but there's a range. The Rangers are operating way above that range.

Well, you if you look at the past couple of years, the Rangers are consistently "better" at it. Not 106 good, obviously, but they'll most likely finish the year between 101.5 and 102.
Regression towards 100 is only inevitable if every team is equally average. What's inevitable is that teams with great goaltending and good shooters will finish above average and teams with bad goaltending and bad shooters will finish below average.

 

[Machinehead]

When? I don't understand what you mean by this. The Rangers PDO has been well above 100 for 2 straight seasons before this year.

The highest recorded PDO is 103.3 and that team had Ovechkin and Semin. It's coming down eventually. That's guaranteed.

You make it sound like it's statistically impossible to have a season outside this range. Is that true?

Yes. It's statistically impossible for a team to have a season at or around 106.

Well, you if you look at the past couple of years, the Rangers are consistently "better" at it. Not 106 good, obviously, but they'll most likely finish the year between 101.5 and 102.
Regression towards 100 is only inevitable if every team is equally average. What's inevitable is that teams with great goaltending and good shooters will finish above average and teams with bad goaltending and bad shooters will finish below average.

So they're going to go from 106 to 102. Ergo, regression towards 100.

 

[Off Sides]

I vote the regression starts soon, and then it rebounds like in the last two weeks of the season and continues throughout the playoffs.

 

[Raspewtin]

You make it sound like it's statistically impossible to have a season outside this range. Is that true?

The biggest PDO for a team since 2008 is the 2009-2010 Washington Capitals with 103.3, by far the most purely talented hockey team since the lockout.

So, the Rangers can get outside that range if you truly believe they are one of the most talented teams the league has seen since the lockout, which I personally am not willing to say.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

You make it sound like it's statistically impossible to have a season outside this range. Is that true?

a season is a small enough sample size to have an outlying number, but because teams change every season, 1 full season is the largest sample we will ever have.

someone said it in another thread the closer we get to infinity, the less likely it is to have an outlying PDO. 82 games (max 110) is not big enough sample size to guarantee PDO regresses to the mean.

Having a high PDO suggests that a team may have a higher probability of regressing, but in no way does it guarantee that they will.

for the record before I get blasted, no they will not keep their shooting percentage this high all year, the PDO will obviously go down, but to suggest that we will always be at 100 with the game we play, and the goalies we have is asinine

 

[Levitate]

Yes PDO is a stupid "stat" and is also often misinterpreted to mean that every team must regress to exactly 100

Just enjoy the Rangers being fun and don't get so worked up in the stats if it makes it less fun

 

[Machinehead]

a season is a small enough sample size to have an outlying number, but because teams change every season, 1 full season is the largest sample we will ever have.

someone said it in another thread the closer we get to infinity, the less likely it is to have an outlying PDO. 82 games (max 110) is not big enough sample size to guarantee PDO regresses to the mean.

Having a high PDO suggests that a team may have a higher probability of regressing, but in no way does it guarantee that they will.

That's not true.

Having 82 games as opposed to infinity games means they won't all make it to 100.

82 games is more than enough for all of them to go towards 100.

 

[Crease]

Yes. It's statistically impossible for a team to have a season at or around 106.

Wait, really? Is there something about the calculation that makes it impossible?

 

[Kakko]

So they're going to go from 106 to 102. Ergo, regression towards 100.

Well, it's just my opinion, but I'm sure most would agree that if this team plays 1000 games, they would still end up around 102. I'd call that a regression to 102.

 

[Machinehead]

Wait, really? Is there something about the calculation that makes it impossible?

A 106 would mean a shooting percentage of 11, the highest ever recorded, and a save percentage of 95, the highest ever recorded.

If you want to believe the Rangers are breaking two NHL records this year, be my guest.

 

[Crease]

A 106 would mean a shooting percentage of 11, the highest ever recorded, and a save percentage of 95, the highest ever recorded.

If you want to believe the Rangers are breaking two NHL records this year, be my guest.

So it's not impossible?

 

[Machinehead]

Well, it's just my opinion, but I'm sure most would agree that if this team plays 1000 games, they would still end up around 102. I'd call that a regression to 102.

There's not even a three year (246 games) window where anybody has hit 102. Not even close. The highest is 101.6.

 

[Lion Hound]

All you hear from people when talking about the rangers is PDO and i think its hilarious. Same exact people who called they would somehow be a bottom 5-10 team in the league and called for a blow up of a team. Now were 13-4 and everyone jumps on PDO, First off it goes without saying that the goal scoring will fall drastically because nobody scores at this rate, and when it does the PDO will balance but idk if people who say PDO havent watched the rangers but they create chances that other teams just do not create with the puck movement and speed that we generate, thus the PDO ridiculousness. The "highlight reel" goals are actually sustainable because they arent dangling defenders and getting puck bounces they are moving the puck and themselves around like an all star team. Obviously when its going good its going great and goalies start losing confidence and letting in squeakers (kevin hayes clap bomb on markstrom) but besides that 7 goals on 26 shots was hardly poor goal tending because the plays are just so efficient. It really wouldn't surprise me if they have one of the higher shooting percentages in recent times come season end because they are a pass first team with almost 3 and a half lines of talent and speed. You'll run into hot goalies here and there but in general its going to be hard to stop the onslaught of goals especially considering its coming from everywhere and the top end players havent even done core damage since first 6 games.

I love "Paid Days Off"

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Wait, really? Is there something about the calculation that makes it impossible?

No, nothing at all, other than it historically not happening.

If we finish the season with a .940 SV% and 12 SH%, that's a 106 PDO. It's just not very likely.

 

[Machinehead]

So it's not impossible?

Kreider scoring 80 goals is not "impossible" either.

 

[Machinehead]

No, nothing at all, other than it historically not happening.

If we finish the season with a .940 SV% and 12 SH%, that's a 106 PDO. It's just not very likely.

A shooting percentage of 12 would be the highest ever recorded by a percent a half.

Alex Ovechkin shoots 12%.

 

[Crease]

Kreider scoring 80 goals is not "impossible" either.

You literally said a few posts up its statistically impossible for a team to have a 106 PDO for a season. I'm just trying to understand the damn stat