Prospect Info: Patrick vs Nico II: Tragic for Patrick or Torpedo for Nico?

[hutter]

Again, Hischier this year was around ~1.5 ppg. Patrick over the past TWO years (longer sample size) is around ~1.4 ppg

so that difference in 0.1 ppg is the difference between '2C' and 'elite scoring upside'?

First off look at point shares. Secondly, no, the tools are the difference between 2C downside and "elite scoring upside." Thirdly, look at the injury history.

The intrigue here is the likelihood that Patrick's abdominal/groin injury has probably been around for a lot longer than we think. Or at least building up to the point where it was. It's tough to say quite how good either of these two guys are. Sucks that this is the year we win the lottery.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Ranking the centers in the league right now is a really difficult and subjective task, but I came up with the following:

1A: Getzlaf, Eichel, Bergeron, Toews, Seguin, McDavid, Draisaitl, Barkov, Kopitar, Tavares, Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Matthews, Backstrom, Scheifele

1B: Kesler, Krejci, Monahan, O'Reilly, MacKinnon, Wennberg, Spezza, Zetterberg, Carter, E. Staal, Johansen, Turris, Giroux, Thornton, Couture, H. Sedin, Kuznetsov

2A: Duchene, Anisimov, Koivu, Stepan, Zibanejad, Stastny, Kadri, Nylander, Johnson, Horvat, Little

2B: Backes, J. Staal, Rask, Backlund, Dubinsky, Nielsen, Larkin, Nugent-Hopkins, Zajac, Brassard, Couturier

In my opinion it's virtually impossible to categorize certain players if the only distinction you use is '1C or 2C', the difference between the worst 1C and the best 2C is so minimal it might as well be non-existent.

With that said I think both Patrick & Hischier will almost certainly end up in the 1B / 2A group, obviously there's still some variation within those groups, but I think that's a fair estimate for the caliber of player they will become. There's a slim chance Patrick becomes a Kopitar/Getzlaf level player, but I think it's more reasonable to assume he'll be closer to guys like Johansen & E. Staal.

Great post. 1A group is where the real "franchise" players are, and if Hischier/Patrick can become one of those, then we are extremely lucky. I wouldn't include Scheifle in the 1A just yet. One more season of dominance and he's there. Same with Mackinnon, which you put at 1B. And yeah move down Spezza, E. Staal. Move up Duchene. But still, same point. amazing post and breakdown.

 

[Emperoreddy]

First off look at point shares. Secondly, no, the tools are the difference between 2C downside and "elite scoring upside." Thirdly, look at the injury history.

The intrigue here is the likelihood that Patrick's abdominal/groin injury has probably been around for a lot longer than we think. Or at least building up to the point where it was. It's tough to say quite how good either of these two guys are. Sucks that this is the year we win the lottery.

That isn't the "intrigue". Most sources have been pretty adamant that Patrick's recent injury issue all had to do with his hernia.

 

[EnglishDevil]

Great post. 1A group is where the real "franchise" players are, and if Hischier/Patrick can become one of those, then we are extremely lucky. I wouldn't include Scheifle in the 1A just yet. One more season of dominance and he's there. Same with Mackinnon, which you put at 1B. And yeah move down Spezza, E. Staal. Move up Duchene. But still, same point. amazing post and breakdown.

I personally think Scheifele has earned his spot based off the last two seasons of play, but I understand that others may want to see him maintain it for another year before including him in that group.

MacKinnon definitely doesn't deserve to be considered a 1A yet, while he's still young and will likely get there when he's a little more seasoned, he still has some weaknesses to his game and his career high of 63 points came in his rookie year. He hasn't pushed on as I (and I suspect many) had expected him to, so for now he sits in the 1B group (albeit as one of the better 1B's).

Spezza & Staal are certainly towards the bottom end of the 1B group, but I think they both just about scrape their way in. Staal had a bit of a resurgence in Minnesota this year after a very poor year with Carolina/NYR, while he's not the player he used to be his performance this season merits keeping him in that group for now. Likewise Spezza had a little bit of a down year, but i'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, I don't think he quite deserves to lose his 1B distinction just yet.

Duchene probably does deserve to be a 1B, but it just felt weird putting in him the same tier as MacKinnon when the latter is demonstrably the far superior player. Duchene will assuredly bounce back from his extremely poor season, so perhaps bumping him down to a 2A is a little harsh in that regard, but he's definitely towards the bottom of the 1B pack if you include him in that group.

As I said, it's all fairly subjective and the gap between the worst 1B and best 2A is razor thin, but that's my justification for those if you were wondering

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Haha yeah i hear ya. Overall, really good post and analysis. All those centers you named are the best in the game for sure. and center is such an important position.

 

[JBthree24]

Am I the only one that wouldn't be surprised if Philly chose Heiskanen?

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Am I the only one that wouldn't be surprised if Philly chose Heiskanen?

Probably.

 

[RememberTheName]

Am I the only one that wouldn't be surprised if Philly chose Heiskanen?

Yea cause that have literally 0 need for another lhd they have Provorov Ghost Sanheim and Hagg

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Am I the only one that wouldn't be surprised if Philly chose Heiskanen?

yes.

They have a LOT of good DMen prospects and little up front. They are basically us in reverse.

 

[devilsblood]

When people say: "if Patick does not reach his ceiling, he'll most likely be Eric Staal" are they saying 30 year old Eric Staal? or were they not around when he was younger?

A young Eric Staal is every bit as good, if not better then Getzlaf. Getzlaf has seemingly aged better, and has certainly benefited by being on stronger teams. But prime for prime? I see no discernible edge.

 

[devilsblood]

oh my god lol. now we're debating how to define a #1C? does that actually matter at all?

Are you saying such a discussion does not belong in this thread? You have a point if so.

Or that the topic in general should not be discussed? I'd disagree here, I think it's as worthwhile a hockey topic as any.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

First off look at point shares. Secondly, no, the tools are the difference between 2C downside and "elite scoring upside." Thirdly, look at the injury history.

The intrigue here is the likelihood that Patrick's abdominal/groin injury has probably been around for a lot longer than we think. Or at least building up to the point where it was. It's tough to say quite how good either of these two guys are. Sucks that this is the year we win the lottery.

The injury bit in this post is ridiculous. No, a hernia at age 17 isn't going to be a big deal whatsoever. And if he was playing injured and still produced like he has, that helps his case.

And Patrick's "tools" are absolutely good enough to have a 1C ceiling, are you kidding?

 

[devilsblood]

The injury bit in this post is ridiculous. No, a hernia at age 17 isn't going to be a big deal whatsoever. And if he was playing injured and still produced like he has, that helps his case.

And Patrick's "tools" are absolutely good enough to have a 1C ceiling, are you kidding?

I think if you take away the injury, Patrick has the look of a legit #1 pick. No not McDavid, but certainly right there with MacKinnon, and maybe even better. He has the look of a guy you can build your franchise around.

But we can not ignore these injuries. This hernia apparently popped up when he was 17, required off season surgery and then lingered forcing him to miss half of his 18 yr old season, this is significant. People acting like this is no big deal, or him dealing with significant injuries is each of the previous 5 seasons is no big deal? C'mon, they are very worrisome.

 

[MartyOwns]

Are you saying such a discussion does not belong in this thread? You have a point if so.

Or that the topic in general should not be discussed? I'd disagree here, I think it's as worthwhile a hockey topic as any.

i'm saying it pains me that people are spending considerable time and energy putting together these arbitrary rankings and definitions. but i will concede it's better than reading more about nolan's groin

 

[devilsblood]

i'm saying it pains me that people are spending considerable time and energy putting together these arbitrary rankings and definitions. but i will concede it's better than reading more about nolan's groin

I dunno sounds like a pretty legit hockey discussion.

 

[ghdi]

Am I the only one that wouldn't be surprised if Philly chose Heiskanen?

Yeah.

We would be more likely to take Heiskanen than them.

 

[zharkenby]

Anyone know where to find Patrick highlights from THIS season?

 

[Edmonton East]

Anyone know where to find Patrick highlights from THIS season?

probably a doctor's office

 

[zharkenby]

Also interesting to note:

Patricks GM: "he'll porbably be a number one or two center"

Hischiers GM: "Hes going to be a superstar"

 

[FooteBahl]

probably a doctor's office

Lol that was pretty good

 

[evnted]

Also interesting to note:

Patricks GM: "he'll porbably be a number one or two center"

Hischiers GM: "Hes going to be a superstar"

we've gone too far

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Also interesting to note:

Patricks GM: "he'll porbably be a number one or two center"

Hischiers GM: "Hes going to be a superstar"

What did their childhood babysitters say though?

 

[Blender]

I'm not worried about the long term effects of a hernia. Yes it lingered for him and caused him to miss time, but the surgical techniques for it are so good these days I've known people who have had the surgery and have been back playing hockey within 2 to 3 weeks. As long as it has been fixed it will be fine.

 

[zharkenby]

What did their childhood babysitters say though?

Im sorry but are you serious

Their Juniors gms, ya know, the guys that watched them play all season, opinions don't matter to you. Thats pathetic, are you from Winnipeg or something? Youre in such denial that Hischier might be the better player of the two its humorous. The way some of you guys on this board will complain when we take nico is going to keep me entertained for months

 

[devilsblood]

Im sorry but are you serious

Their Juniors gms, ya know, the guys that watched them play all season, opinions don't matter to you. Thats pathetic, are you from Winnipeg or something? Youre in such denial that Hischier might be the better player of the two its humorous. The way some of you guys on this board will complain when we take nico is going to keep me entertained for months

ZBC's babysitter joke was not a great comparison.

But you have to admit there is a complete lack of objectivity in regards to the respective gm's of each player.