Pageau next contract

[Sens]

Say he has a 15-20G 35-40Pt season while playing a role on the PK

Shaw - 3.9 cap hit
Kruger - 3.083 cap hit
Cizikas - 3.35 cap hit

I'd argue Pageau is better then them all

5yrs 22.5 million? Would that be reasonable for Pageaus next contract?

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[armani]

Say he has a 15-20G 35-40Pt season while playing a role on the PK

Shaw - 3.9 cap hit
Kruger - 3.083 cap hit
Cizikas - 3.35 cap hit

I'd argue Pageau is better then them all

5yrs 22.5 million? Would that be reasonable for Pageaus next contract?

Pageau's contract will be super tricky if his production holds true. I agree that he is better than the players listed.

Hope the team finds a way to keep him, he is a local boy that our management and fans alike love. Anywhere between $2M and $3M is ideal, with hometown discounts, on a 3-year type deal. No idea what kind of money he would seek on a longer-term deal (as the market is already paying higher for similar type of players).

 

[danielpalfredsson]

He isn't likely to match last year's point totals since they were inflated due to him having to play a role with Turris hurt that he won't get an opportunity to play this year.

10-15 goals and 25-30 points would be my prediction. I'd love to see him push the envelope and put up 40+ points, but with his usage, I dont think the opportunity to do it will be there.

I think the Sens will lock him down since he plays an important role as the 3C matchup guy/lead penalty killer. This is where the hometown boy meme that people complain about pays off. I think they'll get Pageau locked down at a very reasonable rate for 4 years. Something in the 2-2.5 territory. His QO is only 1.1.

Shaw isn't the greatest comparable. He has less RFA years left than Pageau, has hit similar numbers to what Pageau hit last season 3 times already not just once, and then there is the "I was part of the Blackhawks cup winning teams" tax.

Cizikas is a pretty good comparable if Ottawa wants to go 5 years, but he also has one less RFA gear in that deal than Pageau will have, which combined with Ottawa's "you're from here and we know you want to stay so make this easy for us by taking less money" approach like the one they used with Methot, I think Pageau's hit would be lower.

It'd be awesome if Dorion pulled an NHL 16 and signed him to an 8 year extension at 2.5 million.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Pageau's contract will be super tricky if his production holds true. I agree that he is better than the players listed.

Hope the team finds a way to keep him, he is a local boy that our management and fans alike love. Anywhere between $2M and $3M is ideal, with hometown discounts, on a 3-year type deal. No idea what kind of money he would seek on a longer-term deal (as the market is already paying higher for similar type of players).

Especially with the acquisition of Brassard, his production isn't going to match last season when he got top 6 minutes for a big chunk of the year.

He had something like 9 points in the 26 games before Turris got hurt. Which is solid at a pace of 28 points, but not anywhere near the 43 he had at the end of the season.

I think Pageau could be an offensive 50 point 2C if given the opportunity over a full season to play that role. But the point is, he isn't going to get that opportunity in Ottawa because we now have two veteran top 6 centres instead of one and an inconsistent Zibanejad. There'll only be so much room for production when Pageau is getting almost no PP time, playing big PK minutes, and getting defensive deployment and harder matchups. If he gets 30 points this year, that should be looked at as a huge accomplishment if he is used in that expected role.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I'd be very happy if we gave him 3.000 for any term (preferably long)

 

[armani]

Especially with the acquisition of Brassard, his production isn't going to match last season when he got top 6 minutes for a big chunk of the year.

He had something like 9 points in the 26 games before Turris got hurt. Which is solid at a pace of 28 points, but not anywhere near the 43 he had at the end of the season.

I think Pageau could be an offensive 50 point 2C if given the opportunity over a full season to play that role. But the point is, he isn't going to get that opportunity in Ottawa because we now have two veteran top 6 centres instead of one and an inconsistent Zibanejad. There'll only be so much room for production when Pageau is getting almost no PP time, playing big PK minutes, and getting defensive deployment and harder matchups. If he gets 30 points this year, that should be looked at as a huge accomplishment if he is used in that expected role.

OP did say assuming his production holds true, so my response was in the hypothetical sense. Even then, if he can repeat another near 20 goal season and be one of the SH leaders, I think he can easily ask north of $3M because a player of that ilk is worth much more in the FA market.

I doubt, barring injuries, that he gets the minutes to replicate last season, where he slotted anywhere from an elite 3C to a productive 1C when Turris went offline.

Really, I was just waiting for the Pageau bubble to burst each year since he made the team, and he proves me wrong each time. Right now, he is our veteran defensive centre with a solid 2-way game. What a gem!

 

[danielpalfredsson]

OP did say assuming his production holds true, so my response was in the hypothetical sense. Even then, if he can repeat another near 20 goal season and be one of the SH leaders, I think he can easily ask north of $3M because a player of that ilk is worth much more in the FA market.

I doubt, barring injuries, that he gets the minutes to replicate last season, where he slotted anywhere from an elite 3C to a productive 1C when Turris went offline.

Really, I was just waiting for the Pageau bubble to burst each year since he made the team, and he proves me wrong each time. Right now, he is our veteran defensive centre with a solid 2-way game. What a gem!

Fair enough. If he has another 20/40 year, yeah he can ask for a lot more than 2-2.5 like I suggested in my posts. But I think the reasoning I gave for him not matching that production was pretty fair, so I don't think it is worth worrying about something that has a slim chance of happening. If Pageau hits 30 points in a highly defensive role with Turris and Brassard getting better opportunities offensively, that'll be a huge accomplishment.

 

[SixthSens]

3.0-3.5 is around fair and what I expect.

 

[Benjamin]

8 x 3.5

 

[Sun God Nika]

He should take a discount. 5ys*3m

 

[aragorn]

I don't think Pageau will match the production of last yr, just like I doubt Smith will match the production of last yr since I don't think Stone will be playing with them very often this coming yr, if at all. I also don't think they will score as many short handed goals as they did last yr either which helped their productions since I think Kelly & Pyatt will take some of their PK time.

I'm not sure what Pageau will be worth at the end of the season since I'm one who thinks Lazar could challenge him for his job next season & White will be another yr closer to being NHL ready & could challenge for a roster spot in the near future as well. I would guess he might only get a one yr contract because of that, on the other hand they could also trade one of Lazar, Puempel or White at any time too. Tough call.

 

[Xspyrit]

Give Pageau 3.0 x 5 or 6 years

Seems like a guy that would be happy with it and help us build a contender

I would also try to Smith at something similar but less term, see if he bites

Worse case scenario we can trade them later but right now they make a very good 3rd line combo that is important if we want to win

 

[armani]

Give Pageau 3.0 x 6

Seems like a guy that would be happy with it and help us build a contender

That would be a cheap contract for a player like Pageau in just a few years as the cap keeps going up.

 

[armani]

I don't think Pageau will match the production of last yr, just like I doubt Smith will match the production of last yr since I don't think Stone will be playing with them very often this coming yr, if at all. I also don't think they will score as many short handed goals as they did last yr either which helped their productions since I think Kelly & Pyatt will take some of their PK time.

I'm not sure what Pageau will be worth at the end of the season since I'm one who thinks Lazar could challenge him for his job next season & White will be another yr closer to being NHL ready & could challenge for a roster spot in the near future as well. I would guess he might only get a one yr contract because of that, on the other hand they could also trade one of Lazar, Puempel or White at any time too. Tough call.

Until proven otherwise, Pageau is better than all three players at the moment, at the ripe old age of 23.

 

[operasen]

Should get an A. 5 or 6 years at 4M and I'd be happy. 3.5M and we'd run and hide.

 

[aragorn]

Until proven otherwise, Pageau is better than all three players at the moment, at the ripe old age of 23.

At the moment yes, but we are talking in 1, 2 or 3 yrs time when a number of centres could be at a point in their developments to challenge for a roster spot. Lots can change over time but being a home town boy certainly gives Pageau an inside track.

 

[Xspyrit]

That would be a cheap contract for a player like Pageau in just a few years as the cap keeps going up.

Yes I know but Pageau isn't a star player and we'd be buying 2 or 3 RFA years (so half of it). His QO is only 1.1, we have leverage

I would have this for him on the table :

2.0 x 3 years
3.0 x 5 years
4.0 x 8 years

It's up to him

 

[Tundraman]

He'll be making $1.1M this year and still be a RFA when it ends so his next deal could be near the $2M average depending on number of years and if any UFA years are included. More of those can raise the average value a bit higher. I don't see him getting much more than that unless he suddenly becomes a 30 goal scorer.

 

[aragorn]

He'll be making $1.1M this year and still be a RFA when it ends so his next deal could be near the $2M average depending on number of years and if any UFA years are included. More of those can raise the average value a bit higher. I don't see him getting much more than that unless he suddenly becomes a 30 goal scorer.

Which because he is cheap & so effective defensively might give him any inside track on staying in Ottawa. While one of Puempel, Lazar or White being former 1st rd picks might have more value & potential & return more. I doubt he pots 30 goals unless they put Stone back with him.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Give him term to save a bit of money.

6-8 years at 3-3.5M

 

[yoplait]

On a 5-6 year basis:
Anywhere from 0-3.5m I'm super happy.
Anywhere from 3.5-4m I'm okay with it.
Anything above 4m I would consider an overpayment.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

Hello all! Lurker and first time poster, Max here.

I'm thinking you give Pageau just north of $3M/yr for 3 years. The Sens have quite a lot of guys in the line up and coming up the ranks who'd like to get their start at the #3C spot. Brown, White, Paul, and even Lazar is still probably hoping to move up from #3C ( though I see Lazar as the #3RW this year ). It won't be for another 2-3 years before the Sens know what they have behind Brassard and Turris at C...if Turris and Brassard are even still around at that time... You don't want to be hamstrung with a super long contract. I do think Pageau is movable no matter what happens ( IF you move him ), but it is always a good idea to give yourself flexibility.

A lot will depend on what happens with Pageau this year. His numbers were very good last year for a #3C, but he was moved up in the line up a lot, which made him more of a #2C. It is unlikely he will be able to have the success on the PK he had this past year, and he probably won't have Stone on the RW. If he has Smith on the LW, he may find that the shooting percentage from that wing may not be what it was last year. I'm not sure if Pageau will see a drop in production or not. But I doubt he exceeds his totals from last year. I think $3M per year is more than fair for a guy that tops out around 40pts in a depth role.

Just my opinion on it.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

You have to remember, he is a 3rd line player. Plus, the cap won't be increasing (at least not significantly)for a while. Not with all the crap going on. Personally, I think they greenlit the Vegas team to prevent the cap from decreasing.

Going above 3 million for him would be a mistake. Same thing with a long-term contract. Kid abuses that little body of his....giving him a long term deal is a bad move. I love the kid and how he plays, but his playstyle and body type don't have long careers.

 

[Benjamin]

You have to remember, he is a 3rd line player. Plus, the cap won't be increasing (at least not significantly)for a while. Not with all the crap going on. Personally, I think they greenlit the Vegas team to prevent the cap from decreasing.

Going above 3 million for him would be a mistake. Same thing with a long-term contract. Kid abuses that little body of his....giving him a long term deal is a bad move. I love the kid and how he plays, but his playstyle and body type don't have long careers.

Then it goes to arbitration or we're forced to trade him.

 

[Tkachuk27]

Say he has a 15-20G 35-40Pt season while playing a role on the PK

Shaw - 3.9 cap hit
Kruger - 3.083 cap hit
Cizikas - 3.35 cap hit

I'd argue Pageau is better then them all

5yrs 22.5 million? Would that be reasonable for Pageaus next contract?

5 years with this ownership let's face facts here ..He will be traded