Proposal: Pacioretty to Buffalo (non-O'Reilly)

[Yatzhee]

3OA is not in play, and it's been confirmed by Lebrun and yet apparently both teams are still trying to work on a deal as of right now. So there's clearly something else that will make Botterill flinch.

Not buying it. I was told just today GM's say things that aren't true all the time.

So, the 3rd OA it is then. Welcome to Buffalo Tkachuk!

 

[jfhabs]

See, that's where the difference of opinion is.

Most of us think of MP as a formerly very good player who has shown the expected signs of decline as he reaches his 30's.they have also noticed the criticism he has had from his own management, the fact that he was underpaid during his prime years, and the likelyhood that he will want max dollars when he re-signs after next year.

Buffalo can't help but look at their own experience with Okposo, and look at what has transpired with other similar players like Ladd, Backes, Ericsson, etc.. Surely they would understand that signing wingers in their 30's to long, expensive contracts is not the way to go?

None of the players you used are good comparables. Neither of them were as good as Max Pac and for as long. Patrick Marleau is most probably the best comparaison in terms of style and production. From the names you mentioned, Eriksson is probably the only one who's similar in terms of play style but he was concussed so many times in the past recent years I think that's what derailed his career more than is age.

Max Pacioretty had a bad season last year. But, it's not as bad as many make it out to be. His shooting percentage was below career averag by 3%. Which would give him 23 goals in 64 games... which averages to 30 on 82 games.

No matter what is next contract would be, that's still really bad value for a 30 goals scorer @ 4.5 M. Kane, Nash, Lucic, St-Louis, Vanek (NY to BUF) were all some what in the same scenario and all got a 1st ++

 

[Satanphonehome]

Scandella for Pacioretty

 

[jfhabs]

Sure, not sure how you'd measure it.

I expect maxpac to be a decent middle six winger who puts up 45ish points. I expect that by the end of the season guhle will be a good second pairing defenseman playing 20 minutes. I value the defenseman more.

So everyone agrees this was a very bad year for Pac, but you think he's going to do even worse next year. Also think that Guhle will play top 4 ahead of Dahlin and Scandella?

I think you're just being an homer really. Saying you wouldn't trade a prospect because it doesn't fit the teams plan is something. Saying a fringe nhler is better than a proven 30 goals scorer is just blind love/hate.

 

[loyaltotheend]

None of the players you used are good comparables. Neither of them were as good as Max Pac and for as long. Patrick Marleau is most probably the best comparaison in terms of style and production. From the names you mentioned, Eriksson is probably the only one who's similar in terms of play style but he was concussed so many times in the past recent years I think that's what derailed his career more than is age.

Max Pacioretty had a bad season last year. But, it's not as bad as many make it out to be. His shooting percentage was below career averag by 3%. Which would give him 23 goals in 64 games... which averages to 30 on 82 games.

No matter what is next contract would be, that's still really bad value for a 30 goals scorer @ 4.5 M. Kane, Nash, Lucic, St-Louis, Vanek (NY to BUF) were all some what in the same scenario and all got a 1st ++

That's kind of funny to read. If you just bring his shooting percentage up 3% and extrapolate for a full season, it's like 30 goals!

 

[cramdizzl]

Pacioretty could end up being a very nice bounce back player next year, like Kopitar as he turned 30. If Botterill could buy low without touching expected roster players, I'm all for it. Maybe that means Nylander or Pu or Asplund, another guy and a pick. But O'Reilly for Patches is a lateral move at best, and that's just in the short term. Have to hope JB has no interest in a move like that with his already talent deficient roster.

 

[haseoke39]

So everyone agrees this was a very bad year for Pac, but you think he's going to do even worse next year. Also think that Guhle will play top 4 ahead of Dahlin and Scandella?

I think you're just being an homer really. Saying you wouldn't trade a prospect because it doesn't fit the teams plan is something. Saying a fringe nhler is better than a proven 30 goals scorer is just blind love/hate.

45 points is an improvement on last year, and guhle doesn't have to beat Scandella or Dahlin to play in our top 4. Scandella, Dahlin, Risto, guhle. That's where the team is going unless they acquire a veteran D.

I could very well be wrong about next year, but ask me who I would rather have from 2020-25, or when Dahlin starts entering his prime, and it's not close.

 

[Digable5]

So everyone agrees this was a very bad year for Pac, but you think he's going to do even worse next year. Also think that Guhle will play top 4 ahead of Dahlin and Scandella?

I think you're just being an homer really. Saying you wouldn't trade a prospect because it doesn't fit the teams plan is something. Saying a fringe nhler is better than a proven 30 goals scorer is just blind love/hate.

If you believe Guhle is a "fringe NHLer" why would you want him? If Guhle is a "fringe NHLer" than just about anything we have offered from picks to prospects would be better than him, right?

Guhle is only a "fringe NHLer" right now because he is 20 years old. The fact that he has played any NHL games at D already is both impressive for him and depressing for Sabres fans. I don't agree with haseoke39 that Guhle will be a 20min. #4 next season, but I do think he has that ability in the next few years (if not the potential for more).

And while I would hope Max Pacioretty would do more than 45 points next season if playing for Buffalo, its certainly a strong possibility that is all he does. Pacioretty's defenders say that his production was down because of the team he played for. In Buffalo, the team is even worse. Playing with Eichel could certainly have a positive impact, but that is not a given.

 

[jfhabs]

45 points is an improvement on last year, and guhle doesn't have to beat Scandella or Dahlin to play in our top 4. Scandella, Dahlin, Risto, guhle. That's where the team is going unless they acquire a veteran D.

I could very well be wrong about next year, but ask me who I would rather have from 2020-25, or when Dahlin starts entering his prime, and it's not close.

You quickly change foot I see. 2020-2025 is 2 to 7 years away. Really hard to predict. I think Max will most probably be a better player for the next 3-5 years, almost certainly for the next 2, maybe it could shift on year 3-4. Who knows

 

[haseoke39]

And I think you have to be a fool to let someone convince you a sudden drop in production at age 29 is an aberration. Statistically speaking, it's the most common age to leave your prime. It's not something you overlook. It's more likely to reflect the guy you're getting.

 

[haseoke39]

You quickly change foot I see. 2020-2025 is 2 to 7 years away. Really hard to predict. I think Max will most probably be a better player for the next 3-5 years, almost certainly for the next 2, maybe it could shift on year 3-4. Who knows

I think I said as soon as next year, by the end of the season originally. I still think it could be as soon as next year. As soon as indicates eventually and potentially as soon as X.

 

[jfhabs]

If you believe Guhle is a "fringe NHLer" why would you want him? If Guhle is a "fringe NHLer" than just about anything we have offered from picks to prospects would be better than him, right?

Guhle is only a "fringe NHLer" right now because he is 20 years old. The fact that he has played any NHL games at D already is both impressive for him and depressing for Sabres fans. I don't agree with haseoke39 that Guhle will be a 20min. #4 next season, but I do think he has that ability in the next few years (if not the potential for more).

And while I would hope Max Pacioretty would do more than 45 points next season if playing for Buffalo, its certainly a strong possibility that is all he does. Pacioretty's defenders say that his production was down because of the team he played for. In Buffalo, the team is even worse. Playing with Eichel could certainly have a positive impact, but that is not a given.

I used the right now time frame because that's what the previous poster used as a time frame to compare him to Max pac.

I mean if you say there's a good chance Guhle will be a top 4 D in a few but a strong possibility Max Pac only do 45 pts next year, I think you're opînion is biaised towards your team's player/prospect.

 

[jfhabs]

I think I said as soon as next year, by the end of the season originally. I still think it could be as soon as next year. As soon as indicates eventually and potentially as soon as X.

Yea, I see you dancing now. It's ok man whatever. You don't want Mac Pac that's fine

 

[Tripod]

And I think you have to be a fool to let someone convince you a sudden drop in production at age 29 is an aberration. Statistically speaking, it's the most common age to leave your prime. It's not something you overlook. It's more likely to reflect the guy you're getting.

Giroux was 29 years old to start last season. Look how he rebounded.

It does happen.

 

[haseoke39]

Yea, I see you dancing now. It's ok man whatever. You don't want Mac Pac that's fine

I don't see me dancing. Just checked my posts.

FWIW, I think Montreal had no business bidding for ROR either. It reeks of desperation from a GM who needs to push the team back into the playoffs immediately rather than build a core from within. I'm neither trying to sell or buy here, but if Bergevin insists on buying, I want him to pay in his most valuable futures.

 

[jfhabs]

That's kind of funny to read. If you just bring his shooting percentage up 3% and extrapolate for a full season, it's like 30 goals!

It's funny when people prefer using 64 games as a sample size over 500+ games. Or just the 200 last games?
Or just look him play and see he was still skating as well as he used too. Or see that the puck would just not come to his stick.
Why not to a deeper analyses? Why not just look at the pts? RIghttttt

 

[Jim Bob]

It's funny when people prefer using 64 games as a sample size over 500+ games. Or just the 200 last games?
Or just look him play and see he was still skating as well as he used too. Or see that the puck would just not come to his stick.
Why not to a deeper analyses? Why not just look at the pts? RIghttttt

Recency bias is a real thing.

But, you also can't ignore what happened last season, either.

No team is trading for what Pacioretty did 2 or 3 seasons ago. They are trading for what he can do in 18-19.

 

[Mattilaus]

So everyone agrees this was a very bad year for Pac, but you think he's going to do even worse next year. Also think that Guhle will play top 4 ahead of Dahlin and Scandella?

I think you're just being an homer really. Saying you wouldn't trade a prospect because it doesn't fit the teams plan is something. Saying a fringe nhler is better than a proven 30 goals scorer is just blind love/hate.

Can you bold the part of his post where he said Guhle will be above Scandella and Dahlin on the depth chart?

 

[jfhabs]

Recency bias is a real thing.

But, you also can't ignore what happened last season, either.

No team is trading for what Pacioretty did 2 or 3 seasons ago. They are trading for what he can do in 18-19.

They are trading for what they think he can to with/for them. Looking at a whole picture, I think educated viewers would expect more then 17g and 45 pts for him.

 

[jfhabs]

Can you bold the part of his post where he said Guhle will be above Scandella and Dahlin on the depth chart?

That was a deduction since they are all LHD. Didn't know your plan was to put him on his wrong side or that any of Scandella or Dahlin play their off side.

 

[Jim Bob]

They are trading for what they think he can to with/for them. Looking at a whole picture, I think educated viewers would expect more then 17g and 45 pts for him.

I agree.

But, I do think that his trade value does take a hit due to his bad year last year and the fact that he only has one year left on his deal before hitting UFA.

 

[Digable5]

I used the right now time frame because that's what the previous poster used as a time frame to compare him to Max pac.

I mean if you say there's a good chance Guhle will be a top 4 D in a few but a strong possibility Max Pac only do 45 pts next year, I think you're opînion is biaised towards your team's player/prospect.

C'mon. No one on HFBoards has ever been so crude as to show prejudice toward their own team's players. You should be ashamed of the implication.

I'm certainly not going to say that I am free of team bias, but in this instance I would say that I am more (HockeysFuture) guilty of age bias than I am of team bias; with a dash of big contract fear sprinkled in. If we finished last year near the top of the standings and in the Conference Finals, I would gladly give up a "fringe NHLer" for the veteran winger we need. But, in the position we currently find ourselves, I have no interest in jeopardizing our future for the ability to "get better" next season and potentially strap ourselves with a another big contract to validate the move.

 

[Digable5]

It's funny when people prefer using 64 games as a sample size over 500+ games. Or just the 200 last games?
Or just look him play and see he was still skating as well as he used too. Or see that the puck would just not come to his stick.
Why not to a deeper analyses? Why not just look at the pts? RIghttttt

I'll admit that I have not spent hours watching film and analyzing statistics to determine whether Pacioretty is on the decline or having an off year. However, you can not just look at his whole career and consider it as an indicator for whats to come next year or even the year after that. If you saw a player have an "off year" at 26 years old with strong years before and after, you would say that its not a good indicator of his ability. However, when most/many (?) NHL players see a decline in their production around age 29 or 30, you get a little hesitant to call a potentially expensive acquisition "having a fluke season".

 

[loyaltotheend]

It's funny when people prefer using 64 games as a sample size over 500+ games. Or just the 200 last games?
Or just look him play and see he was still skating as well as he used too. Or see that the puck would just not come to his stick.
Why not to a deeper analyses? Why not just look at the pts? RIghttttt

While I think he'll rebound somewhat, imo his best days are behind him.

You reaching so hard to pretend he has the same value is funny to read.

Ciao

 

[jfhabs]

While I think he'll rebound somewhat, imo his best days are behind him.

You reaching so hard to pretend he has the same value is funny to read.

Ciao

Yea right, thanks for bringing so much enlightment. Great posts!