Player Discussion Owen Power, D (1st overall, 2021) Calder Finalist

[oldgoalie]

Just quoting your post to add to the strength talk, he absolutely did not have the caliber of wrist shot he scored on last night at any point last year. That was a mans shot.

said that last night. that was an NHL player level shot.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Dubi Doo]

Truly, honestly, Power isn’t blowing me away by the eye test currently. He has a ton of defensive lapses. But those are some crazy numbers

He struggles defensively, though I've noticed improvement this year. His vision is beyond his years, though, and he typically makes the smart pass out of the zone. That's a crazy important skill to have as a defenseman, and I believe it's why he's rated so highly.

Just quoting your post to add to the strength talk, he absolutely did not have the caliber of wrist shot he scored on last night at any point last year. That was a mans shot.

I noticed him wiring shots in the preseason, and figured he ate his fair share of Wheaties over the offseason.

20 years old, and he already has vision like a seasoned vet. I'm going to stick with my 'Scott Niedermayer style player' prediction when he hits his prime. Obviously, it's unlikely he'll reach the same heights, but that's who he reminds me of.

 

[dortt]

He may actually be our best defenseman

a great problem to have

 

[Chainshot]

He may actually be our best defenseman

a great problem to have

I would give that to his partner right now.

And I need to check to see what is ground up in my coffee thinking that.

 

[dortt]

Power needs to be on the #1 PP with Dahlin

No reason those 2 cannot be out there for the whole 2 minutes. Who cares what the rest of the NHL does. We can have our version of Pronger and McInnis

 

[Slangston]

 

[newfiejesus]

"sabers"

reassurance for those looking, I suppose.

 

[Zman5778]

Boy, when someone talks about fancy stats not matching the eye test --- this is our Exhibit A (and B and C, probably).

Power's had some good moments, but overall I haven't seen an uptick in his D-Zone play. While he's more willing to get involved along the boards, he's still not good at it yet. If we're getting hemmed in for a shift or two.....chances are Power is on the ice.


Yet........these stats are undeniable. My brain is overloading at the contradiction.

 

[joshjull]

Boy, when someone talks about fancy stats not matching the eye test --- this is our Exhibit A (and B and C, probably).

Power's had some good moments, but overall I haven't seen an uptick in his D-Zone play. While he's more willing to get involved along the boards, he's still not good at it yet. If we're getting hemmed in for a shift or two.....chances are Power is on the ice.


Yet........these stats are undeniable. My brain is overloading at the contradiction.

Those are ON ICE stats that many insist on using as individual stats. Which they’re not.

The following is from a post of mine in a GDT a few games ago …….

Individual player stats -> tallies anything that can be directly attributed to a player like goals, points, shots, hits, takeaways, etc.

On Ice player stats -> Measures team performance when that player is on the ice. These stats account for everything that happens when that player is on the ice, whether they had a hand in it or not. Its not a measure of player’s individual performance. Nor can it tell us how much credit or blame that player deserves for number.

When a bunch of posters argue Power has been bad defensively. His On ice stats don’t really refute that. A player can struggle defensively while having positive xGF/xGF. Because they’re not a reflection of his individual play as a dman.



The reality is someone with good xGF%, HDCF%, etc can actully be playing poorly in one area or another. The reverse is true as well. Someone playing well in various areas can have on ice stats that don’t reflect that.

 

[sabresfan129103]

Just by the eye test and outside of a game or 2 this year I think he's been fantastic. It's nice to see the advanced stats show that as well.

 

[Chainshot]

"sabers"

reassurance for those looking, I suppose.

I wonder if that is Mr. Otto Korrect intruding.

 

[Aladyyn]

Those are ON ICE stats that many insist on using as individual stats. Which they’re not.

The following is from a post of mine in a GDT a few games ago …….

Individual player stats -> tallies anything that can be directly attributed to a player like goals, points, shots, hits, takeaways, etc.

On Ice player stats -> Measures team performance when that player is on the ice. These stats account for everything that happens when that player is on the ice, whether they had a hand in it or not. Its not a measure of player’s individual performance. Nor can it tell us how much credit or blame that player deserves for number.

When a bunch of posters argue Power has been bad defensively. His On ice stats don’t really refute that. A player can struggle defensively while having positive xGF/xGF. Because they’re not a reflection of his individual play as a dman.



The reality is someone with good xGF%, HDCF%, etc can actully be playing poorly in one area or another. The reverse is true as well. Someone playing well in various areas can have on ice stats that don’t reflect that.

These are not strictly on-ice stats but this early in the season they are basically worthless because the sample size is way too small. Pretty much the only "advanced" metric I'd even look at this early in the season is Corsi but even that is more of a curiousity thing than any sort of evaluation tool.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Boy, when someone talks about fancy stats not matching the eye test --- this is our Exhibit A (and B and C, probably).

Power's had some good moments, but overall I haven't seen an uptick in his D-Zone play. While he's more willing to get involved along the boards, he's still not good at it yet. If we're getting hemmed in for a shift or two.....chances are Power is on the ice.


Yet........these stats are undeniable. My brain is overloading at the contradiction.

I 100% agree. And I love Power

But it makes sense to some degree as there’s an insufficient sample size for these
stats to mean much of anything. If just a couple more goals went against him while he was on ice, while also a couple less goals going for us. His stats would look very different. And a couple goals in both directions isn’t much of anything

 

[joshjull]

These are not strictly on-ice stats but this early in the season they are basically worthless because the sample size is way too small. Pretty much the only "advanced" metric I'd even look at this early in the season is Corsi but even that is more of a curiousity thing than any sort of evaluation tool.

The sample size doesn’t really change the fundamentals. They‘re not individual stats.


As for what “advanced” stats have value this early with the relative sample sizes. Depends on what you’re trying to assess and what argument you try to make off that assessment.

 

[Ace]

Seems insane that the same people who watched Dahlin light himself on fire defensively for four years have such a disdain for Power who doesn’t do that…but isn‘t as strong in either body or fundamentals as he will be at the start of year two. He’s not accidentally on the ice when the team is the most dangerous. He is a consistent reason for it. That isn’t undone by being out of position or outmuscled in his own end sometimes. He isn’t a negative player…and it is wild how much some people make him out to be one.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[GellMann]

Boy, when someone talks about fancy stats not matching the eye test --- this is our Exhibit A (and B and C, probably).

Power's had some good moments, but overall I haven't seen an uptick in his D-Zone play. While he's more willing to get involved along the boards, he's still not good at it yet. If we're getting hemmed in for a shift or two.....chances are Power is on the ice.


Yet........these stats are undeniable. My brain is overloading at the contradiction.

He has struggled. He is overwhelmed with the speed of things, and as a result his decisions are a tick slow and turn possession into 50/50 battles, misses passes etc.

I don't care if the fancy stats don't pick it up. There were two great shifts in a row that perfectly illustrate this phenomenon in the first period tonight. Power was on the ice for a full offensive zone shift with Benson, Mitts and Peterka, where those three danced around for a while, got a couple chances. Power finally touches the puck for the first time at the end of the shift, gets closed in on, dumps the puck in the general direction of a winger, missing him wildly, and the shift ends. Washington clears and everyone changes, Power boosts his xGF pretty handily because he never had to defend. His very next shift, the exact same thing happened - he did not touch the puck but Tuch and Skinner made some plays. These shifts were a nice boost to his fancy stats, and the only thing he did of note was BAD.

Power is good enough to be in the NHL in a sheltered role with less minutes than we are giving him, that's how he needs to learn to play this game at an elite level eventually. But he is a million miles away from that right now and it's obvious to anyone watching the games. I enjoy stats, fancy stats, doing statistics myself in general. If you can watch 82 games for your team and have watched hockey a long time, you have more interesting things to say about a player than any stat ever created, especially in hockey specifically

 

[dire wolf]

He has struggled. He is overwhelmed with the speed of things, and as a result his decisions are a tick slow and turn possession into 50/50 battles, misses passes etc.

I don't care if the fancy stats don't pick it up. There were two great shifts in a row that perfectly illustrate this phenomenon in the first period tonight. Power was on the ice for a full offensive zone shift with Benson, Mitts and Peterka, where those three danced around for a while, got a couple chances. Power finally touches the puck for the first time at the end of the shift, gets closed in on, dumps the puck in the general direction of a winger, missing him wildly, and the shift ends. Washington clears and everyone changes, Power boosts his xGF pretty handily because he never had to defend. His very next shift, the exact same thing happened - he did not touch the puck but Tuch and Skinner made some plays. These shifts were a nice boost to his fancy stats, and the only thing he did of note was BAD.

Power is good enough to be in the NHL in a sheltered role with less minutes than we are giving him, that's how he needs to learn to play this game at an elite level eventually. But he is a million miles away from that right now and it's obvious to anyone watching the games. I enjoy stats, fancy stats, doing statistics myself in general. If you can watch 82 games for your team and have watched hockey a long time, you have more interesting things to say about a player than any stat ever created, especially in hockey specifically

I agree with your general point, but I think you are over-stating it a bit. He's fantastic for his age, but he is sometimes overwhelmed a bit both physically and mentally (in terms of speed). I'm not worried about him -- he'll continue to get better and better. He's way ahead of where he should be for his age as a defenseman. I agree they should watch his minutes, but he is already averaging a lot less ice time than last year (22:05 vs. 23:48).

Also, whatever our eyes are seeing, you can't deny some facts:
https://x.com/Sabremetrix/status/1726687558162399678?s=20

 

[joshjull]

I agree with your general point, but I think you are over-stating it a bit. He's fantastic for his age, but he is sometimes overwhelmed a bit both physically and mentally (in terms of speed). I'm not worried about him -- he'll continue to get better and better. He's way ahead of where he should be for his age as a defenseman. I agree they should watch his minutes, but he is already averaging a lot less ice time than last year (22:05 vs. 23:48).

Also, whatever our eyes are seeing, you can't deny some facts:
https://x.com/Sabremetrix/status/1726687558162399678?s=20

Thats a great way to put it.

 

[toddkaz]

I honestly don't understand this contract. Even if Power played lights out he would top out at 8m a season. He is basically getting Heiskanen money without even proving himself.

His rookie season was good but nothing spectacular. 8 million is just ridiculous for an unproven defenseman who has played one season in the NHL.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

I honestly don't understand this contract. Even if Power played lights out he would top out at 8m a season. He is basically getting Heiskanen money without even proving himself.

His rookie season was good but nothing spectacular. 8 million is just ridiculous for an unproven defenseman who has played one season in the NHL.

Well said. Adams overpaid . Maybe magically next year he will be very good when contract kicks in?

 

[KeyserSoze81]

I honestly don't understand this contract. Even if Power played lights out he would top out at 8m a season. He is basically getting Heiskanen money without even proving himself.

His rookie season was good but nothing spectacular. 8 million is just ridiculous for an unproven defenseman who has played one season in the NHL.

I think Adams got drunk off the success of signing Thompson and Cozens early, and wanted to go back to the well again this offseason. I don't love Power's game and would have preferred a bridge, but I still can understand the desire to lock him up if you expect him to develop according to plan (and expect the cap to rise as expected).

He has been pretty bad this year, but just about everyone other than Peterka, Greenway, and Middlestadt has regressed noticeably this season. I love Granato, but there are some major arrows pointing to coaching right now.

 

[Chainshot]

Right now, his (and RJohnson's) abilities to move the puck in transition are excellent. And just like with Ryan, when things break down in their own zone, it's really noticeable. I'm still going with the optimist view on both, that as they mature, there will be improvement in their d-zone play and decision making. Power tips the ice in their favor in a way few other defensemen can do. And at his size and with his minutes, it's difficult to hide the lack of d-zone engagement so there are moments when it leads to undesired outcomes.

 

[Snippit]

On a night of bad, he was uniquely bad.

We cannot Risto this guy.