Out Of Town Thread Part XXII

[montreal]

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[waffledave]

There’s a bunch of different ways but off the top of my head, trade Turris, Bonino, Smith, Jarnkrok etc. Or anyone of the other top 3 D left which they decided against.

When there’s a will, there’s a way.

No, sorry but that doesn't count. You can't just say "well just trade Turris" you need to be more specific than that.

Who will you trade to free up $8 mil NET cap space?
That means, you are moving x players, not getting any salary back, not giving up draft picks/prospects (they didn't do that with Subban), and you need to consider who will replace the players you are moving.

If you trade Turris/Bonino/Smith/etc... you need to find me a team that can take their full contracts, no retaining salary, has the roster space. You also need to replace these guys since they have key roster spots, so this will need to be considered when clearing up $8mil net cap space.

 

[Runner77]

No, sorry but that doesn't count. You can't just say "well just trade Turris" you need to be more specific than that.

Who will you trade to free up $8 mil NET cap space?
That means, you are moving x players, not getting any salary back, not giving up draft picks/prospects (they didn't do that with Subban), and you need to consider who will replace the players you are moving.

If you trade Turris/Bonino/Smith/etc... you need to find me a team that can take their full contracts, no retaining salary, has the roster space. You also need to replace these guys since they have key roster spots, so this will need to be considered when clearing up $8mil net cap space.

Also have to consider that $9M in cap space today is worth a lot more than when Subban signed his contract given how many teams are cap-strapped and how unlike prior years, the cap max took a step back. Cap trouble is putting a premium on cap relief deals otherwise there would be a lot less suitors in the UFA market. Nashville traded from a position of redundancy and it looks to me as if they are looking to be a player in the UFA market, given the timing of the Subban deal.

 

[Sterling Archer]

No, sorry but that doesn't count. You can't just say "well just trade Turris" you need to be more specific than that.

Who will you trade to free up $8 mil NET cap space?
That means, you are moving x players, not getting any salary back, not giving up draft picks/prospects (they didn't do that with Subban), and you need to consider who will replace the players you are moving.

If you trade Turris/Bonino/Smith/etc... you need to find me a team that can take their full contracts, no retaining salary, has the roster space. You also need to replace these guys since they have key roster spots, so this will need to be considered when clearing up $8mil net cap space.

Lolz what!?

Is your premise that the literal only way Preds could get cap (they didn’t need) was to trade PK?

And even when I say Turris ($6M) and a multitude of different names and potential prospects and picks, you’re answer is “no, sorry.” Hahaha. Dude. Really??

 

[Andy]

Is your premise that the literal only way Preds could get cap (they didn’t need) was to trade PK?

No, he's saying that the easiest way to free up capspace was by trading Subban. He had enough value where the Preds didn't have to add an additional asset to get rid of a bad contract (like Marleau) or where they didn't have to take salary back (likely in the case of trading Turris and Bonino), which would partially defeat the purpose.

At the end of the day, the two players on the Preds with significant salary and value were Ellis and PK. The preds chose to keep the younger player signed to a cheaper deal on longer term. It was unlikely teams were going to bite on Turris or Bonino, especially Turris. Even if the Preds moved Bonino, they still had to shed additional salaries to clear up the cap space to bring in Duchene (rumored) and sign Josi to an extension - maybe even Granlund.

Even if the Preds moved Bonino and Jarnkrot, that's still 3 million less in savings than moving Subban, assuming the preds wouldn't take salary back in the a Bonino and Jarnkrot deal. In moving those two guys, you also upset key contributors to your bottom 6.

Luckily for the preds, they were able to unload from a position of strength. That said, from a cap and team building perspective, it made the most sense to move Subban.

 

[japhi]

Also have to consider that $9M in cap space today is worth a lot more than when Subban signed his contract given how many teams are cap-strapped and how unlike prior years, the cap max took a step back. Cap trouble is putting a premium on cap relief deals otherwise there would be a lot less suitors in the UFA market. Nashville traded from a position of redundancy and it looks to me as if they are looking to be a player in the UFA market, given the timing of the Subban deal.

Yes there are cap strapped teams but there are many teams with an abundance of cap space. Vancouver signed Edler at 6mm and there is talk of Myers at 7+. Colorado has like 36mm in space. Montreal has space, AZ, Florida, NYR, NYI, Philly, Ottawa, Buffalo, Minny, LAK, Carolina, etc.

You can’t explain the deal away on cap space alone, clearly GM’s were concerned about more then the cap. And I’m not talking about locker room stuff, rather his future as a top D man. Not many appear willing to take the bet that NJ did, which is frankly surprising. Can’t believe Vancouver wasn’t all over this, they have a good young team and need a spark, he would have been perfect and is miles better then Myers or Edler. They haven’t had a 1d since Jovo, how do they pass on PK?

 

[OldCraig71]

No, he's saying that the easiest way to free up capspace was by trading Subban. He had enough value where the Preds didn't have to add an additional asset to get rid of a bad contract (like Marleau) or where they didn't have to take salary back (likely in the case of trading Turris and Bonino), which would partially defeat the purpose.

At the end of the day, the two players on the Preds with significant salary and value were Ellis and PK. The preds chose to keep the younger player signed to a cheaper deal on longer term. It was unlikely teams were going to bite on Turris or Bonino, especially Turris. Even if the Preds moved Bonino, they still had to shed additional salaries to clear up the cap space to bring in Duchene (rumored) and sign Josi to an extension - maybe even Granlund.

Even if the Preds moved Bonino and Jarnkrot, that's still 3 million less in savings than moving Subban, assuming the preds wouldn't take salary back in the a Bonino and Jarnkrot deal. In moving those two guys, you also upset key contributors to your bottom 6.

Luckily for the preds, they were able to unload from a position of strength. That said, from a cap and team building perspective, it made the most sense to move Subban.

No, you are so wrong! They only traded him because his teammates hate him and because he wants all of the spotlight!

 

[Andy]

Not many appear willing to take the bet that NJ did, which is frankly surprising.

Others teams were willing to bet, hence the multiple teams interested in acquiring him. They just were not willing to make that bet at 9 million.

 

[japhi]

Others teams were willing to bet, hence the multiple teams interested in acquiring him. They just were not willing to make that bet at 9 million.

But that 9mm is part of the bet.

4 teams interested at 6mm, well ya I hope so. But not interested enough to give up valuable assets.

 

[Andy]

But that 9mm is part of the bet.

4 teams interested at 6mm, well ya I hope so. But not interested enough to give up valuable assets.

Well, we don't know what they offered. We just know they wanted the Preds to retain salary.

 

[Sterling Archer]

No, he's saying that the easiest way to free up capspace was by trading Subban. He had enough value where the Preds didn't have to add an additional asset to get rid of a bad contract (like Marleau) or where they didn't have to take salary back (likely in the case of trading Turris and Bonino), which would partially defeat the purpose.

At the end of the day, the two players on the Preds with significant salary and value were Ellis and PK. The preds chose to keep the younger player signed to a cheaper deal on longer term. It was unlikely teams were going to bite on Turris or Bonino, especially Turris. Even if the Preds moved Bonino, they still had to shed additional salaries to clear up the cap space to bring in Duchene (rumored) and sign Josi to an extension - maybe even Granlund.

Even if the Preds moved Bonino and Jarnkrot, that's still 3 million less in savings than moving Subban, assuming the preds wouldn't take salary back in the a Bonino and Jarnkrot deal. In moving those two guys, you also upset key contributors to your bottom 6.

Luckily for the preds, they were able to unload from a position of strength. That said, from a cap and team building perspective, it made the most sense to move Subban.

You’re missing the point entirely but I’ll play anyways.

You don’t usually trade a star player to crest cap space when it’s not even necessary to do so. Preds aren’t over the cap and didn’t need to make space. Poiles trading of PK was because he wanted to, not because he had to. This dovetails nicely to the next point.

If Poile had to create cap space, there are a myriad of different ways he could have done so and kept PK. All your points rely on what you THINK would have happened or what you THINK other GMs would have done or not. Fact is, incredibly undesirable players are traded all the time. If the desire to keep PK and crest cap space was there, there surely would have been a remedy.

That leads us back to the first point of Poile wanting to trade PK even though he got relatively nothing in return from any GM in the league. That’s the story and not the alternative universe if what ifs and would have beens. It’s what course was taken because Poile thought it was the best one for his team.

 

[Runner77]

Yes there are cap strapped teams but there are many teams with an abundance of cap space. Vancouver signed Edler at 6mm and there is talk of Myers at 7+. Colorado has like 36mm in space. Montreal has space, AZ, Florida, NYR, NYI, Philly, Ottawa, Buffalo, Minny, LAK, Carolina, etc.

You can’t explain the deal away on cap space alone, clearly GM’s were concerned about more then the cap. And I’m not talking about locker room stuff, rather his future as a top D man. Not many appear willing to take the bet that NJ did, which is frankly surprising. Can’t believe Vancouver wasn’t all over this, they have a good young team and need a spark, he would have been perfect and is miles better then Myers or Edler. They haven’t had a 1d since Jovo, how do they pass on PK?

There were 3 other teams besides NJ who wanted Subban. The other three bailed cause they all wanted Nashville to retain salary. So, if that doesn't tell you the current value of cap room, then it's your prerogative to believe an alternate scenario. Don't care about convincing you.

 

[japhi]

Well, we don't know what they offered. We just know they wanted the Preds to retain salary.

For sure, looks like he was shopped pretty hard though. I think a bunch of GM’s missed an opportunity. Vancouver in particular, how do they not gamble on 27mm over three years?

 

[waffledave]

Lolz what!?

Is your premise that the literal only way Preds could get cap (they didn’t need) was to trade PK?

And even when I say Turris ($6M) and a multitude of different names and potential prospects and picks, you’re answer is “no, sorry.” Hahaha. Dude. Really??

Andy explained it well but the premise here is that PK is the only guy with enough value that a team would be willing to take on the whole contract without any incentives or salary retained. And Nashville has enough depth on D that they can move one of them.

Your solution is "trade Turris" but you give no details on how to do that. Who will take him? Who will take his full salary, not ask for any retention, and not ask for any incentives to do so? There are maybe 5 teams in the whole league who would be able to do that at all. Then, who do you replace Turris with on Nashville? Even if you replace him with someone making 700k you are still only clearing up just over $5mil, so you're missing $3mil more to make it equivalent to the room they got from moving Subban's contract.

So yeah, "haha dude," really.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Andy explained it well but the premise here is that PK is the only guy with enough value that a team would be willing to take on the whole contract without any incentives or salary retained. And Nashville has enough depth on D that they can move one of them.

Your solution is "trade Turris" but you give no details on how to do that. Who will take him? Who will take his full salary, not ask for any retention, and not ask for any incentives to do so? There are maybe 5 teams in the whole league who would be able to do that at all. Then, who do you replace Turris with on Nashville? Even if you replace him with someone making 700k you are still only clearing up just over $5mil, so you're missing $3mil more to make it equivalent to the room they got from moving Subban's contract.

So yeah, "haha dude," really.

Well you’re asking for absolute answers to theoretical questions. How on earth could anyone answer that other than in theoretical terms???

I know it’s possible that if Poile wanted to get cap space and keep PK it would be possible. Are you arguing that that’s impossible?

 

[Perrah]

Well you’re asking for absolute answers to theoretical questions. How on earth could anyone answer that other than in theoretical terms???

I know it’s possible that if Poile wanted to get cap space and keep PK it would be possible. Are you arguing that that’s impossible?

Perhaps he didnt want to give up assets to accomplish that goal because they have traded quite a bit over the past 3 -5 years to make runs at it. You dont know what the priorities were outside of cap space.

 

[Andy]

You don’t usually trade a star player to crest cap space when it’s not even necessary to do so. Preds aren’t over the cap and didn’t need to make space. Poiles trading of PK was because he wanted to, not because he had to. This dovetails nicely to the next point.

I mean, if you want to ignore context, no, you don't trade star players to create cap space. However, when you have 4 star defensemen, continuously get bounced because scoring is an issue and have a player like Duchene supposedly ready to sign with you, the incentive to trade a star player increases quite substantially.

No, the preds weren't over the cap pre-Subban trade, but they only had roughly 4 million in cap space before Subban was traded, leaving very little to acquire a UFA. They also need to consider re-signing Josi, Smith and Granlund after this year, or at the very least, find replacements.

No player has to be traded and every trade that occurs is something a GM wants to do, so this is a moot point.

If Poile had to create cap space, there are a myriad of different ways he could have done so and kept PK. All your points rely on what you THINK would have happened or what you THINK other GMs would have done or not. Fact is, incredibly undesirable players are traded all the time. If the desire to keep PK and crest cap space was there, there surely would have been a remedy.

Of course there is a myriad of different ways, it doesn't mean they are all equally easy to carry out. Sure, the preds could have moved Bonino and Jarnkrot, but that probably entails two separate trades. In each case you need to ensure that you don't get salary back or you offset the room you tried to make. With how difficult it is to make trades in the nhl, it's likely hard to make two separate cap saving deals.

Sure, you could move Turris, but he's arguable immovable at this point. Does Poile want to add an asset in order to move Turris? We don't know, but why drop an asset when you don't have to. Also, the preds have dropped quite a few assets the passed few years trying to make a run for the cup. Perhaps they didn't want to further spend assets where they didn't have to.

The other consideration is Ellis, who is slightly younger, much cheaper and signed to longer term on a deal that will only look better as salaries increase yearly.

Trading Subban was probably the easiest way to shed significant cap space, and duly so since he was traded so quickly during the draft period.

That leads us back to the first point of Poile wanting to trade PK even though he got relatively nothing in return from any GM in the league. That’s the story and not the alternative universe if what ifs and would have beens. It’s what course was taken because Poile thought it was the best one for his team.

Again, when a player is traded, it's because a GM wants to trade them. Did Poile trade Weber because he was a lockeroom cancer or thought his contributions to the team were marginal? After all, Weber too was a star player.

At the end of day, the history of cap saving trades show that teams wanting to shed cap have very little leveraging, hence the return.

 

[japhi]

There were 3 other teams besides NJ who wanted Subban. The other three bailed cause they all wanted Nashville to retain salary. So, if that doesn't tell you the current value of cap room, then it's your prerogative to believe an alternate scenario. Don't care about convinving you.

I would argue it tells you the current value of Subban, more then anything,

The alternative scenario is that not one has cap room.

Also not trying to convince you, lots of Cap sites that show how much room each team has. No need to argue over what is easily found there.

 

[Runner77]

I would argue it tells you the current value of Subban, more then anything,

The alternative scenario is that not one has cap room.

Also not trying to convince you, lots of Cap sites that show how much room each team has. No need to argue over what is easily found there.

We'll agree to disagree. I already know where a prolonged exchange is going to end and I don't want to waste my time.

Not every team was prepared to absorb $9M in salary as NJ did. The league just announced a cap max regression and the UFA market is about to open. That tells me that Nashville wants to be active in the UFA market and the timing of the trade also tells me they needed a quick deal. Ultimately, the decision was also facilitated from the fact that they were dealing from a position of redundancy.

They're on record as looking for forward help. I don't agree with the trade personally, I think they undersold him. But, they wanted cap relief quickly and when you want something done fast, you don't get the best return for your asset. Also, this is not the best market to vye for cap room as a lot of teams are scrambling for it, so finding a suitor for $9M in the current market is a difficult thing. Maybe Poile believes that the cap room coming back will allow him to replace Subban by a comparable forward at the same or similar cap hit.

 

[waffledave]

You’re missing the point entirely but I’ll play anyways.

You don’t usually trade a star player to crest cap space when it’s not even necessary to do so. Preds aren’t over the cap and didn’t need to make space. Poiles trading of PK was because he wanted to, not because he had to. This dovetails nicely to the next point.

You're right that this doesn't happen, but this year the cap crunch is becoming a critical issue for multiple teams. It's never been this bad. The Preds didn't need to clear cap this season but they absolutely need to do it for next season, and that's assuming they don't want to make major moves in UFA (which they likely will, since that's what Poile does).

If Nashville waits till next year to clear up cap space so they can resign Josi, chances are there will be even fewer teams with the space to fit these big contracts. So maybe they are stuck and have to move Josi instead.

If Poile had to create cap space, there are a myriad of different ways he could have done so and kept PK. All your points rely on what you THINK would have happened or what you THINK other GMs would have done or not. Fact is, incredibly undesirable players are traded all the time. If the desire to keep PK and crest cap space was there, there surely would have been a remedy.

You still haven't come up with one way to do that though. Your solution is "trade all their bad contracts for nothing" but that's not a solution. Bad contracts get moved, but it always involves giving up additional assets or retaining salary. Neither happened here. So a team needs to take Turris, Bonino and more, at full salary, without getting any incentives to take on these contracts. You seem to think this is super simple to do, maybe you should be a GM cause there are a bunch of teams that could use your help.

That leads us back to the first point of Poile wanting to trade PK even though he got relatively nothing in return from any GM in the league. That’s the story and not the alternative universe if what ifs and would have beens. It’s what course was taken because Poile thought it was the best one for his team.

He got $8mil in cap space for giving up one asset. That's the return.

 

[Andy]

I know it’s possible that if Poile wanted to get cap space and keep PK it would be possible. Are you arguing that that’s impossible?

You need to consider the context man.

In order to free up as much cap room as Poile did with moving Subban, he would have to make a minimum of two moves. Not only does he need to make a minimum of two moves, he has to make them relatively quickly since free agency is about to open.

I don't see many teams rushing to pick up guys like Bonino, Turris or Jarnkrot. Let's just be real here, they aren't the same type of asset at all. Not only do you have to probably move players no one is rushing to take, but you likely have to make two deals to free up as much cap space in a short period of time.

You look at more desirable players with larger cap that you could expend. You fall on Ellis and Subban since you have 4 star Ds. Ellis doesn't clear as much cap, he's younger and signed at a longer deal that will look better as salaries rise. Subban is the obvious choice of two.

Subban is the obvious choice because of his cap hit and because the preds are likely to find a taker relatively quickly, free up space for some UFAs.

I mean, yeah, if you want to ignore context, you could ask, why would the preds choose to trade a star D to clear up cap space instead of trying to make up the equivalent cap space by making a combination of other deals instead. Unfortunately, context matters and the easiest route to create the most cap space as quickly as possible with the least impact on your club was to move Subban.

 

[waffledave]

Well you’re asking for absolute answers to theoretical questions. How on earth could anyone answer that other than in theoretical terms???

I know it’s possible that if Poile wanted to get cap space and keep PK it would be possible. Are you arguing that that’s impossible?

Nothing's impossible, but good lucking finding a GM who will take Turris and Bonino without retaining salary or getting any prospects/picks back.

 

[waffledave]

I mean, yeah, if you want to ignore context, you could ask, why would the preds choose to trade a star D to clear up cap space instead of trying to make up the equivalent cap space by making a combination of other deals instead. Unfortunately, context matters and the easiest route to create the most cap space as quickly as possible with the least impact on your club was to move Subban.

I sincerely don't understand why this is so confusing to people here.

If we're just ignoring context and making things up that don't make sense, why doesn't Nashville just have Turris score 50 goals next year? That would help them out big time, they wouldn't need to sign Duchene at all.

 

[Lshap]

I would argue it tells you the current value of Subban, more then anything,

The alternative scenario is that not one has cap room.

Also not trying to convince you, lots of Cap sites that show how much room each team has. No need to argue over what is easily found there.

What we're politely dancing around is the very real likelihood that, yes, Subban's value is lower than we believed. Win-now teams keep their stars, even the high-priced ones; apparently, Poile felt Subban's contribution no longer matched his salary.

The reason given is he's hoping to sign a UFA? Then why not do what every other team is doing -- sign the UFA first and then worry about making room for him.

 

[Runner77]

What we're politely dancing around is the very real likelihood that, yes, Subban's value is lower than we believed. Win-now teams keep their stars, even the high-priced ones; apparently, Poile felt Subban's contribution no longer matched his salary.

The reason given is he's hoping to sign a UFA? Then why not do what every other team is doing -- sign the UFA first and then worry about making room for him.

It was easier to do that in past years. We have a max cap regression that has caught a lot of teams shorthanded. The price to gain cap room has gone up. It can be prohibitive. It can cost a team a first round pick to gain it right now. Or trading a $9M D for spare parts. You don't know what the market will bear after you've put yourself in a vulnerable position of cap trouble.