Ottawa Hockey Analytics event (2/7/2015)

[schuckers]

Just a quick note that there will be a day long hockey analytics event at Carleton University in Ottawa on February 7th.

More details as I know them.

Click to read more...

 

[Doctor No]

These always sound like something I'd really enjoy attending. This one's during pricing season, which conflicts me out, but I hope that it goes well (so that there are more in the future).

 

[schuckers]

Doctor No,
Sorry you won't be able to make it. I'm certainly hearing there will be more around the continent going forward. Hope to eventually meet you at one of them.

 

[pucka lucka]

Doctor No,
Sorry you won't be able to make it. I'm certainly hearing there will be more around the continent going forward. Hope to eventually meet you at one of them.

When will you have details?

 

[Doctor No]

Doctor No,
Sorry you won't be able to make it. I'm certainly hearing there will be more around the continent going forward. Hope to eventually meet you at one of them.

I'm looking forward to doing so soon. I joke that it's a coincidence that hockey analytics really took off as soon as I put it aside in the early 2000s.

There's so much interesting stuff out there these days; even focusing on goaltending, I can barely keep up with what others are up to.

 

[hatterson]

As someone who can't make it to Ottawa for the day, is there any chance of being able to attend virtually with the various talks/events broadcast online?

 

[schuckers]

As someone who can't make it to Ottawa for the day, is there any chance of being able to attend virtually with the various talks/events broadcast online?

We hope to have this capability. And we certainly plan to have the slides/presentations available after the event.

 

[JessicaN]

very interesting!

 

[CaptainsHockey]

Whenever you have more details please let us know, I know some of us would want to go

 

[schuckers]

Webpage
Link to Registration
#OTTanalytics

Confirmed Speakers:
Tom Awad
Rob Vollman
Josh Weissbock
Andrew Thomas and Sam Ventura of war-on-ice
Michael Schuckers
(more to come)

 

[Doctor No]

That's a nice list - I'd particularly love to meet Rob some day; I love what he's done with goaltending analytics, and he's either not interested in talking to me about the pros and cons of what I've done, or my messages aren't getting all the way to him (I'm hoping for the latter, because he seems like a nice guy).

 

[DangleSprong]

subbed

 

[schuckers]

Just a note that we will have the following speakers at #OTTanalytics below

We are nearly our capacity so if you want to register you should do it soon.
OTTanalytics Conference Web Page

Confirmed Speakers:

Tom Awad, Hockey Abstract

Andrew Berkshire, Habs Eyes On The Prize, @AndrewBerkshire

Stephen Burtch, Sportsnet.ca, @SteveBurtch

Matt Cane, Puck++ and Hockey Prospectus, @Cane_Matt

Alex Diaz-Papkovich, Carleton University, @adp_diaz

David Johnson, Hockeyanalysis.com and Puckalytics.com, @hockeyanalysis

Emmanuel Perry, SenStats.com, @MannyElk

Michael Schuckers, St. Lawrence University and Statistical Sports Consulting LLC, @SchuckersM

Timo Seppa, Hockey Prospectus, @timoseppa

Andrew Thomas, University of Florida and war-on-ice.com, @acthomasca

Sam Ventura, Carnegie Mellon University and war-on-ice.com, @stat_sam

Rob Vollman, Hockey Abstract, @robvollmanNHL

Josh Weissbock, CanucksArmy.com and CHLStats.com, @joshweissbock

 

[Doctor No]

We must be on the same wavelength - I was just thinking about bumping this.

Good to see that you got Tom and Timo!

 

[Doctor No]

Coming up on Saturday!

 

[JaegerDice]

Wish I could go.

Will you guys be streaming or posting the talks on the website at all?

 

[schuckers]

Right now it looks like the streaming has fallen through, sadly.

I do hope to post the slides from the speakers on the website after the event.

OTT analytics webpage

 

[ZeroPT*]

I really hope I make it

 

[HarrisonFord]

Making the drive from Toronto for this!

 

[ottawa]

Wow, sold out

Wish I saw this thread earlier

 

[schuckers]

Couple things:

1. I can accommodate a couple of additional folks (due to some cancellations) if you haven't registered already. Send me an email using the conference website listed earlier in the thread.

2. Schedule is now at the following link:
#OTTanalytics Conference Schedule

3. We won't be able to webcast the event but I should be able to get presentations online.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Any other hfboard posters going to this?

 

[Micklebot]

Any other hfboard posters going to this?

Here's some posts from the Ottawa board,

It's happening right now, and I'm attending (I'm the nerdy-looking male; you can't miss me )! I took a few notes from the first few presentations (it's lunch break right now). It's rough but it's not nothing:

===

Rob Vollmer on past, present and future of hockey analytics. Need to check out his book.

RTSS: real time statistics (hits, blocked shots, etc.) were introduced in 97-98

2001-2004: focus on the WAR equivalents for hockey

Vollmer thinks Nashville's recent moves look very analytics driven

---

David Johnson (hockeyanalytics.com and puckalytics.com), creator of WOWY (With Or Without You) which looks at stats based on who you play with.

uses NHL.com stats as source (play by play etc.)

but NHL.com is manually entered data, with mistakes and omissions.

Interesting stuff about Voracek's WOWY (he didn't get better, he just got more opportunity); contrast with Jack Johnson.

Bobby Ryan's WOWY FTW!

---
Andrew Thomas, war-on-ice guy

- uses x, y coordinates from ESPN, sportsnet.ca

- wants to incorporate fan data (Passing Project)

---

Josh Weissbock, analytics in dev leagues (CHLstats.com)

PPG beats scouting reports for draft success prediction

looks like height matters too (Aragorn!)

---

panel: difficulty tracking real time data, errors, rink bias...

---

That's it for now, but if there's interest here I can try to take more thorough notes (check out the full program on the web site mentioned above). There may also be some live-tweeting going on (not me; I'm not cool enough to tweet), look for #OTTanalytics.

Update from Session #2 of the conference. This didn't get any love, so I kept my note-taking light.

---

Sam Ventura (CMU!), another war on ice guy

Corsi good because uses lots of events/info. Scoring chances good because focuses on most dangerous events. Idea: blend the two, use weights.

uses distance from goal, shot type, etc. obtains EGF (Expected Goals For), and EGA

correlates well to predict future EGF (from one season to the next), a little bit less for predicting future goals for GF% but does better than Corsi. True for teams and for individual players.

---

Alex Diaz, Carleton grad student

Infer shifts and penalty expirations from data.

uses it as input for market basket analysis to look for correlated events

applied to leafs pairings (Bozak effect, Phaneuf)

---

Matt Cane, puckplusplus.com

- weighting corsi components, but by predictive power (as opposed to net distance for example). shot that scores weighted more than shot that misses.

Goal against component more predictive for forwards than defensemen.

Weighted shots better predictor of FG% than Corsi.

---

Stephen Burtch

effects of coaching and changes within season

Jump in CF% and SCF% from MacLean to Cameron

under Cameron players perform better, better identification of roles for each.

Leafs: Horachek also improved CF% and SCF% from Carlyle.

---

Emmanuel Perry

Microstats, such as zone entries, which are factors in macroscopic stats such as cross.

case of misalignment between perceptions and stats: Cody Ceci. Explained by being team worst at allowing controlled entries against.

also looked at GSN line (but had to skip this for lack of time unfortch)

looked at corsi vs time spent in o-zone or d-zone. Boro and Condra get to the same result despite different corsi.

application of zone entry: auto-detect rushes, evaluate pp, descriptive/narrative potential.

---

Andrew Berkshire (Eyes on the prize)

on fan opinion and how it's influenced by tv commentary.

traditional defensive stats : blocked shots and hits but mean you don't have the puck

pb: the more you have the puck, the more you turn it over. leads to wrong perception: applies to Subban or Karlsson.

PK Subban "fixed"? turns out he's pretty much the same guy from rookie till now. And actually got worse in rel shots against. Replaced instinctive play with dumping the puck.

---

Panel: Andrew says Drew Doughty is overrated. His relative numbers (relative to his team) don't pop out. See Muzzin instead. Subban and Karlsson are better.

One more session left to go!

Final round:

Tom Awad

Modern era of hockey stats started in 2007 with availability of real time stats: led to Corsi/Fenwick, Zone starts, QoC, QoT, etc. By now, most of lowest hanging fruit has been picked.

Still, stats more of descriptive nature than prescriptive. Still can't answer Taylor Hall's question: "How can I improve my Corsi?"

Recent progress due to manual tracking.

Unsolved mysteries:

- score effects: teams play differently depending on the score (number of shots taken changes based on score, etc) but we don't know why at the micro level.

- contribs of players on the ice (WOWY), still can't see who screws up etc just by looking at current data.

SportVu will give us data we need: defensive positioning, zone entry formation, etc.

---

Timo Seppa

Tracked microstats data for local NCAA team. noticed that zone entry numbers don't match eye-assessed quality of D, and that's because of the defensive scheme they were running. RD stopped entries but because LD was backing off to retrieve dump ins. So D partner has impact on "targeted" D.

---

Michael Schuckers

Nemisz picked 25th (Calgary), Eberle picked 22nd (Edm), yet Central Scouting ranked Nemisz higher in skating.

Teams outdo central scouting up to 180 overall draft in career TOI.

So teams do better, are their scouts worth the money? Answer is yes: Teams get $2M value from their scouts. Scouts value comes from 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Central Scouting does better than teams in late rounds.

---

panel: question to Schuckers: could it be that teams are invested in players they draft early and so give them bigger chance to succeed with more TOI?

other question: shift in strategy where teams take more chances late in the draft, and that can also skew the results.

Timo's answer: based on limited experience with one nhl team, early rounds were consensus based but 3rd round and onward is where they relied more on scouts.

question: which new stats get your stats juices flowing? Awad: Zone entry analysis. Schuckers: upcoming player tracking data is what he'd love to have, but for now zone entry as well. Vollmer: compared to a few years ago, new stats come at you faster; need time to wrap your mind around them. Timo: draft analytics, he'd like to do this for a team, where it counts!

===

Aaaaaand that's a wrap.

 

[Doctor No]

Very interesting!

Would love to hear how this went from those in attendance.

 

[ottawa]

Good summary indeed, thanks...wish I could have attended. Also looking forward to comments from those that went