Speculation: Ottawa all but eliminated from playoffs?

[russ4king]

Though I am primarily a Leafs fan, the Sens are my second favourite team and although I would love to see them sneak into the playoffs this year I have accepted that it isnt likely to happen. The math just doesn't work.

Clb and Det are tied with 71 pts with 18 games left. Ottawa has 67 with 18 games left. Let's say both Det and Clb only play .500 hockey the rest of the season (unlikely)...they end up with 89 points. That would mean Ottawa need 23 points in their last 18 games to hit 90. That is a record of 11-6-1.

Now the chances that both Det and Clb both only play .500 the rest of the way is unlikely. Both have played well above that this year, so it is likely a trend close to their current trend is likely. Throw into the fact the Sens have a couple teams ahead of them they need to leap frog. It's over.

Click to read more...

 

[JustinYS]

Yes, the majority of us here realize it. Others still believe but IMO that's foolish.

 

[starling]

Thanks, cap.

 

[Smash88]

Is this not the 3rd or 4th thread made in the past week, proclaiming our season over?

 

[SilverSeven]

Only hope is Andy going full god mode like last year. Doubt it happens.

 

[NyQuil]

It has more to do about how they are playing than the math.

They haven't been consistent all year long.

 

[OgieO]

It'll take a streak. We'll need a 5-0-2 stretch or something in there (plus above .500 in other games) to get us over the hump. We've seen it once or twice this year, but I agree the odds are certainly against us.

Spezza has been better (18 points in last 15 games), if we could get Turris (4 points in last 10) & Ryan (3 points last 10) going a bit better I think we could actually get hot again.

 

[NyQuil]

Spezza has been better (18 points in last 15 games), if we could get Turris (4 points in last 10) & Ryan (3 points last 10) going a bit better I think we could actually get hot again.

If something goes right, something else will go wrong.

Goaltending, special teams, defensive zone coverage, etc.

 

[BUCKLE UP]

The Sens will make the playoffs. Buckle up.

 

[Indrew]

Every loss cuts their chances in half while every win ups their chances by like 4%. Not favourable. They can't afford to lose more than like 3 more games total in March, and none against any team they have a chance of catching.

Just win, baby. A LOT.

 

[Still miss Vermette]

Crazier things have happened, I remember one year the Colorado Rockies won something like 17 of 18 down the stretch to make the playoffs. There's also always the New York Mets annual "be up 10+ games going into the last month and still lose the division."

I'll hold out hope until we are mathematically eliminated. I think they can do it we just need consistency and a little help along the way.

 

[russ4king]

I think in the east this year 93 points will get you in. Would mean the Sens need to run something like 12-4-2 the rest of the way. Not impossible, but unlikely. Anderson would have to play like he did last year. Question for all the Sens fans...would Alfredsson being here have made a difference? Points and his being clutch aside, he was such a huge part of the fabric of the team. Even if him being here would have meant 2-3 more points...that is a huge difference. And would put them right back in the mix.

 

[OgieO]

If something goes right, something else will go wrong.

Goaltending, special teams, defensive zone coverage, etc.

No denying that has certainly been our MO this year.

 

[Upgrayedd]

If something goes right, something else will go wrong.

Goaltending, special teams, defensive zone coverage, etc.

Seems like it a lot of the times sadly, maybe even a step further only one thing on the Sens can be working at one time...everything else takes a step back lol, has there been a point this year where we have had two lines producing? Seems like when we win it's one of: A single forward line has a great game, Karlsson has a great game or Andy has a great game rarily two/three of the three.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Though I am primarily a Leafs fan, the Sens are my second favourite team and although I would love to see them sneak into the playoffs this year I have accepted that it isnt likely to happen. The math just doesn't work.

Clb and Det are tied with 71 pts with 18 games left. Ottawa has 67 with 18 games left. Let's say both Det and Clb only play .500 hockey the rest of the season (unlikely)...they end up with 89 points. That would mean Ottawa need 23 points in their last 18 games to hit 90. That is a record of 11-6-1.

Now the chances that both Det and Clb both only play .500 the rest of the way is unlikely. Both have played well above that this year, so it is likely a trend close to their current trend is likely. Throw into the fact the Sens have a couple teams ahead of them they need to leap frog. It's over.

Yeah definitely man.

Detroit's 11-9-4 record since Jan. 1 is definitely way above the .500 mark.
Columbus at 16-7-1 is our only concern. But hot streaks always cool down eventually. So we'll see how long their winning ways at that percentage can be sustained.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I think in the east this year 93 points will get you in. Would mean the Sens need to run something like 12-4-2 the rest of the way. Not impossible, but unlikely. Anderson would have to play like he did last year. Question for all the Sens fans...would Alfredsson being here have made a difference? Points and his being clutch aside, he was such a huge part of the fabric of the team. Even if him being here would have meant 2-3 more points...that is a huge difference. And would put them right back in the mix.

I would say it's more likely that if we'd won an afternoon game this year, or been better in back to backs or won more than 3 out of 9 shootouts that we'd probably be way better than what our record shows.

 

[83DIZ65]

What needs to happen for us to make it.

Hemsky Spezza Michalek remain lights out down the stretch.

Hoffman proves he belongs and produces at an above average clip.

Turris line performs to its lvl every game.

Karlson is Karlson.

Anderson goes GODMODE.

Power play gets better.

Penalty killing gets better.

Defense weathers storms better.

If all of this happens....i give us a 50/50 shot at making it.

because if all of this happens I believe a 14-4 record could happen. which is likely what it will take for us to get in.

 

[Xspyrit]

If the Sens go on a 5-6 Wins streak, they will be right here until the end. But they have to DO IT

Now I was just looking at the standings and I'm going to say that if the Sens miss the playoffs, it will be largely due to the poor record in OT/SO (6-11). If they went 11-6 instead (like Tampa), they'd have 5 more points and be in a wild card spot right now, 2 points back of Tampa and very close to many teams. Switch Tampa and Ottawa OT/SO records, and Ottawa would have 72 pts while Tampa would have 69 pts.

Montreal is 10-7, Toronto is 13-8...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=otWins&viewName=overtimeRecords

Conclusion : yes there's many problems going around a young inexperienced club but the team hasn't been clutch enough

 

[83DIZ65]

If the Sens go on a 5-6 Wins streak, they will be right here until the end. But they have to DO IT

Now I was just looking at the standings and I'm going to say that if the Sens miss the playoffs, it will be largely due to the poor record in OT/SO (6-11). If they went 11-6 instead (like Tampa), they'd have 5 more points and be in a wild card spot right now, 2 points back of Tampa and very close to many teams. Switch Tampa and Ottawa OT/SO records, and Ottawa would have 72 pts while Tampa would have 69 pts.

Montreal is 10-7, Toronto is 13-8...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=otWins&viewName=overtimeRecords

Conclusion : yes there's many problems going around a young inexperienced club but the team hasn't been clutch enough

anyone know how many shoot out goals and ot goals alfy has had in his career?

 

[NickLidstrom]

It is possible, but the boys don't have the drive. They have been giving up all year long, and if they don't believe in themselves- which they haven't been doing- we are toast.
I don't think it's happening. I guess we can chalk this season up as a 'learning experience'?

 

[MtRundle]

Offense has not been a problem this year.

We are one of the top 5 worst teams defensively this year. Somehow I don't see us playing well enough defensively to go on a 5-7 game winning streak.

We beat the Jets and still gave up 49 shots.

edit: 14-4 to get in... wow so we go 7-0 then 7-4, would be tough

 

[YNWA14]

The Sens will make the playoffs. Buckle up.

This.

 

[83DIZ65]

The Sens will make the playoffs. Buckle up.

teams good enough to do what it has to.....as long as they get up for every game.....

 

[Sun God Nika]

wow at all the defeated fans, its not over till we get eliminated.

 

[Kickabrat]

On the glass is half full instead of half empty side of things this could be the case of Sens making the playoffs...

Detroit is missing Zetterberg and Datsyuk. They should have lost to the Kings in regulation instead of a OT win...another example of the refs missing the puck hitting the netting and screwing the Sens, anyway I digress.

The Sens have a relatively easier schedule going forward.

It's getting to that time of year where the leafs start falling.

Montreal has shown it can go into a tailspin at any given time; right about now would be as good a time as any.

Tampa already feeling the loss of heart and soul St. Louis.

CLB keeps chugging along, I see them as the team to beat in the wild card race.

Caps insert a new Russian in the mix and he screws up any chemistry they might have had.

Jagr gets injured and NJ loses 99% of its offense.

Sens players wake up today and decide they need to play for the full game instead of 2/3 of the game and go on a winning streak that will forever be ingrained in Sens fans everywhere..

The current odds of the Sens making the playoffs is still greater than zero.


What - me worry?