TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
It's a useless metric. Do all teammates play the same amount of time with each other? No. Everything is dependent upon everything and you don't have enough data to figure out how they all relate to each other.
Terrible analogy. Duchene had a proven track record before he was traded to Ottawa. Tierney is proving he can put up points in his current situation. Maybe it's just a lucky streak but that not a guarantee. Suomela hasn't proven anything other than that he can make an NHL roster.
How on earth is it a useless metric when, over the past 11 seasons and 165 playoff series, it is equally as effective as regular season points as picking the winner of a playoff series? How can you see that fact and then keep a straight face while calling it a useless metric?
Suomela led the Finnish league in points and CF% while playing 3rd line minutes. His NHL estimated scoring rate in the Finnish league was 36 points per 82 games. I would much, much rather have a 36 point player with elite metrics than what Tierney was with the Sharks. It’s also not a terrible analogy because what Duchene did in the past had nothing to do with what Sens fans said about him in his first ~10 games with them where he went scoreless. They said “I saw Turris with us for a long time, and this new guy we have is clearly a notch above, regardless of what the points say.” They based this on what they saw of Duchene with them, rather than anything else.
Regression to the mean proved those Sens fans right when the scoring rates of Duchene and Turris normalized and it will prove Sharks fans right when Suomela and Tierney’s scoring rates normalize.