Other Rebuilds: The Vancouver Canucks

[MBH]

At 27-18-4, it seems fair to say that a lot of the heavy lifting is done when it comes to the rebuilding of the Vancouver Canucks. They are a young, playoff contender. No, they're not a cup contender. Not yet. Maybe they will never be. But you gotta walk before you run.
The Canucks are an interesting model for anyone wondering what rebuilds might look like for the Red Wings.
No, they didn't have a 25+year playoff streak. Who does?
But in the Sedin era, 00-01 to 14-15, they made the playoffs 11 of 14 years. They were one of the best franchises in the west over that 14-year run. Both franchises held on to their Hall of Famers rather than trade them for picks and prospects.
It all ended for the Canucks in 15-16. For the Red Wings, their playoff string ended the next year, in 16-17.
The Canucks bottomed out in year 2 of the downturn, at 69 points. The Wings, hopefully, are at the bottom point now, in year 4.
The Canucks made serious games in year three, going from 73 points to 81 points. And they're improvement this season, year five, is even more remarkable.

So, how have the Canucks been able to turn this thing around so quickly?
They obviously had the advantage of having those 3 years out of the playoffs. Was that a factor? Not too much.
16 - Virtanen. 08 - Hodgson. 06 - Grabner.

It's kind of strange to see the Canucks so far ahead of the Red Wings' rebuild. Because, if you were to compare these teams at the end of the season - before the draft - in which they fell from the playoffs - the Red Wings were arguably in a better position for a rebuild.

The Canucks had Boeser, Virtanen, McCann, Demko and Horvat.
The Red Wings Larkin, Bertuzzi, Athanasiou, Mantha, Hronek and Cholowski.

So, how did the Canucks do it? It's kind of remarkable, considering the Canucks probably should have done better than Virtanen and Juolevi.

The Canucks hit a home run with Elias Pettersson. He was drafted 5th overall and, looking back, is almost certainly the best forward taken in 2017.
In 2018, at 7 overall, they drafted Quinn Hughes. Hughes already looks like a major coup at 7.

JT Miller, a 26-year-old center and faceoff ace, is having a huge year. The Canucks traded a first, third and goalie prospect to get him.


On defense they signed Tyler Myers. They had a leg up on the Wings because they already had Edler and Tanev on the roster. They got Tanner Pearson from Pittsburgh for Erik Gudbranson.

Of course, they hired a coach who seems to be working wonders, too.

The Canucks' rebuild is essentially complete. Sure, they're going to need pieces. But they're a playoff contender and they should only get better. Plus, they still have youth on the way.

What can the Wings take from this?
We've got our Horvat and our Boeser and our Virtanen

Well, so far, through three years of top 10 picks, the Wings have yet to hit a homerun.
Zadina looks good. Seider looks good. Rasmussen has potential.

But they haven't done at the NHL level the way Hughes and Pettersson have. And that's the key. Maybe Seider is that guy. I doubt it. I think he's got core potential. but not star potential. Same with Zadina.

The Wings need to draft their star this year. And they probably need one more the next year. And then they probably need to age a year or two before they can take us to the next level.

At the same time, Yzerman doesn't have an Edler or Myers. He'll need to add serious veteran defensemen to Hronek, Seider, and Cholowski.
And he'll need a goalie.

The Canucks lucked out a bit - missing on Juoveli and Virtanen - yet still turning this thing around so fast.

If the Wings hit their homerun this June, and park another one next June, maybe we can be in the playoffs by 2022 or 23.

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[Claypool]

So you're going to completely gloss over the fact that the Pacific division is terrible this season? If the Canucks go on a two-game losing streak they are out of the playoffs.

 

[MBH]

So you're going to completely gloss over the fact that the Pacific division is terrible this season? If the Canucks go on a two-game losing streak they are out of the playoffs.

I'm less concerned with the playoffs than points percentage.

16-17. .421
17-18 - .445
18-19 - .494
19-20 - .592

This is a team on the rise.

 

[ricky0034]

a lot of it is just being bad at the right time

by all accounts the Wings were pretty high on Pettersson too

between that and how good the 2015 draft was it really feels like the Wings dropped the ball not rebuilding sooner

 

[Frk It]

I think if we are lucky enough to get Lafreniere, it will trigger some more aggressive moves from Stevie. Could see him then wanting to add a top 6 center and top 4 D via trade or free agency.

Lafreniere-X-Zadina
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha

X-Hronek
Dekeyser-Seider

^ Get the right mix of depth with that group and I think that’s a playoff team. Maybe sign RNH next summer and trade for a LHD like TJ Brodie on a team with a crowded blue line.

Unfortunately a lot of this is dependent on the lottery. I’d like to think there is a Petterson in this draft, but I don’t know. Maybe Perfetti/Raymond leapfrog some guys once they develop more physically after being drafted.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

How did Vancouver do it? They got a #1OA level talent at 5. They don't have 66.67% of their defense being guys who are literally AHL level players at this point.

I'm less concerned with the playoffs than points percentage.

16-17. .421
17-18 - .445
18-19 - .494
19-20 - .592

This is a team on the rise.

And if the Pacific division is terrible this year... and you focus a good deal of your games in your division... where does that lead you?

Lastly, it's not surprising at all to see Vancouver ahead of Detroit. They got lucky and got the best player in the draft and the type of player that shouldn't last past 1OA at 5OA. They have an assortment of very good top 6 forwards from prior drafts (Boeser, Horvat, Virtanen is finally peeking this way.) And they've got a good enough D core. It's the same thing that would happen if Detroit had landed on magic ping pong balls and added Auston Matthews or Jack Eichel or Elias Pettersson. When you land elite talent, mediocre guys get pushed down to where they become effective NHL players again. Detroit's issue right now is that their bottom pairing D are guys who shouldn't be in the NHL. Their middle pairing is guys who should be the ones babysat with low minutes on a bottom pairing or in the AHL. The top pairing has Hronek who has a little ways to go to be a complete player and some revolving door of Green (who should be hidden on a bottom pairing at ES) and Nemeth (who is an offensive black hole).

Adding one bona-fide stud at forward or one bona-fide stud on D in addition to health for the good players Detroit does have changes the whole look of both units.

.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I think if we are lucky enough to get Lafreniere, it will trigger some more aggressive moves from Stevie. Could see him then wanting to add a top 6 center and top 4 D via trade or free agency.

Lafreniere-X-Zadina
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha

X-Hronek
Dekeyser-Seider

^ Get the right mix of depth with that group and I think that’s a playoff team. Maybe sign RNH next summer and trade for a LHD like TJ Brodie on a team with a crowded blue line.

Unfortunately a lot of this is dependent on the lottery. I’d like to think there is a Petterson in this draft, but I don’t know. Maybe Perfetti/Raymond leapfrog some guys once they develop more physically after being drafted.

Right. and the thing to remember is this "worst team in Red Wings history" from this year has had four of those seven named players above be hurt and miss extended time, be hurt and have it affect their play in a material way, or has not played in Detroit at all. As long as Detroit is patient and makes logical moves, their rebuild is proceeding the way it should. Maybe they shouldn't be this bad... but they're building up their young assets and they should just need to watch them grow. I would say they actually need to get back to adding stabilizing veteran pieces in some of those middle pairing or middle six forward spots. If there is a Jonny Boychuk or Nick Leddy equivalent out for trade, they should be on that if it's not super cost prohibitive. I'd definitely deal a couple seconds for a guy like that who can make it so you're not continuing to run out like 6 good players and 12 worthless pieces of dog ****.

 

[Dingle]

There are so many variables to consider. Not all rebuilds are alike.

You can start a rebuild with a number of young good pieces already there. And in some instances a small number of players in mid-age range there. Now a 1-3 year low finish, allows you to draft high and jump back up.

There are real dangers in blind rebuilds. Ones based upon taking things down to the wood. Look at Edmonton. You can argue this is year 1 of a true recovery..2005 was their collapse. Where it not for a new building, which captivated their fan base, they would be trampled.

who may be available, the quality of players in those draft years. Good luck, dumb luck in terms of their development. For every Vancouver, there is an Edmonton. Imagine this conversation 5 years ago.

22 player roster, 20 game day roster, 15 players core (goalie and backup, top 4 D, top 9 forwards), 7 player cornerstone (Goalie, big three on D, power forward, sniper, two way center). That is a lot of bodies and you have to get them in relatively short order.

It is so much easier to have that short term dip, pick up those 2-3 high end guys and bounce right back up.

rebuilds are a mistake.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Yeah, we need better players to be good. We really need to hit out of this park if we don’t draft first overall.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not a big fan of the Nucks' rebuild. Landing a Pettersson does so much to change perception, but they're still only a mediocre team and big parts of their defense is gonna get old before long (Edler, Myers, Tanev).

Yeah Holland & Yzerman have done less than Benning to acquire veteran help for the short-term. Which is the major reason we are where we are and they are fighting for playoffs.
But if/when we are able to draft a top 3 (or even in the worst case a #4OA) I think it really starts to lay the foundation of what could be a stronger group down the road.

I think people underestimate what it could do to our team to insert the following next season:

Dekeyser + Seider (likely easily our top 2 best defensive d-men and possible shutdown pairing)
Zadina + Rasmussen (improved PP anyone?)
Smith + Svechnikov (improved size, skill and grit for bottom 6)
Maybe a UFA or two with all the cap space we'll have
Maybe Lafreniere or Byfield. Maybe. Worst case, we'll add someone like Stutzle, Raymond or Holtz to the system, likely won't be immediate help but greatly improves our outlook anyway.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Not a big fan of the Nucks' rebuild. Landing a Pettersson does so much to change perception, but they're still only a mediocre team and big parts of their defense is gonna get old before long (Edler, Myers, Tanev).

Yeah Holland & Yzerman have done less than Benning to acquire veteran help for the short-term. Which is the major reason we are where we are and they are fighting for playoffs.
But if/when we are able to draft a top 3 (or even in the worst case a #4OA) I think it really starts to lay the foundation of what could be a stronger group down the road.

I think people underestimate what it could do to our team to insert the following next season:

Dekeyser + Seider (likely easily our top 2 best defensive d-men and possible shutdown pairing)
Zadina + Rasmussen (improved PP anyone?)
Smith + Svechnikov (improved size, skill and grit for bottom 6)
Maybe a UFA or two with all the cap space we'll have
Maybe Lafreniere or Byfield. Maybe. Worst case, we'll add someone like Stutzle, Raymond or Holtz to the system, likely won't be immediate help but greatly improves our outlook anyway.

and if you want to go down that path... You'll have a fully healthy AA, a fully healthy Mantha. Wings could easily to the roster that plays tonight add by next season four top 6 forwards (AA, Mantha, Rasmussen, 1-4OA), at minimum two top 4 D (Seider, DDK) and maybe another one if Cholowski develops again.

That's one thing to remember about this year. We were thin and weak on players and then we had serious injuries befall the good players we did have. Avoid the injury bug to DDK, Mantha, and AA, and we're probably not challenging 45 points.