Post-Game Talk: OT Heartbreaker

[bucks_oil]

Don't mind this interpretation. It's tough to know for sure what they are coached to do, so perhaps there is an error McLeod by not reading that Ceci is stepping up on Byfield and his job may be to get back to potentially chase down an icing if it doesn't go around the net.

Watching how Edmonton plays, I'm pretty sure Ceci is coached to do what he did, but I'm a little less certain what they'd specifically want McLeod to do there, but I'd also be pretty sure they didn't want him to do what he did.

Yeah look... I'm all about errors. I think it's splitting hairs to assign any blame to anyone on that OT goal. That's why I think you were barking up the wrong tree on OT SPCT and OT GAA, since i) statistically it makes no sense to do it and ii) you can't really blame Skinner on that goal.

The biggest errors in the game were (in order of occurrence):
Kempe1: Bouchard+Foegele,
Kempe2: Bouchard,
Doughty: Kulak+Skinner,
Fiala: Skinner.
With a dishonorable mention for whatever defender was too lazy to box out the LA forward from the fly-by screen on Fiala's goal (but it shouldn't have mattered on a shot from that distance)

And all of those happened before OT.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Sure the Kings PP sucks. But the Oilers aren’t going into any series thinking they can take undisciplined penalties cause their PP sucks, nor should they. I don’t expect Nuge to be a brawler, just cause he kicked Monahans ass that one time doesn’t mean that should be expected of his game.

In any case the Oilers are not gettng pushed around or anything. The glove in face stuff between whistles is mostly meaningless and has no effect. Just posturing and teams and players getting their angst out. tbh that its so present is part of what makes the EDM - LA matchup enticing. Theirs bad blood. As fans we tend to win when its the case. The games are very entertaining as contrasted by some weird takes here (not you) that another LA series would bore us to sleep or something.

I don't mind watching the matchup. Its interesting on a lot of levels. Defense vs Offense teams etc.

In anycase I don't think either club is taking more liberties than the other. Both teams are equipped to be making some helllacious hits. Which is also a brand I like.

 

[bone]

It actually looks the opposite when you dig a little deeper. Per Naturalstattrick in the 23:50 of 5v5 time in last nights game Edmonton was trailing, they had an xGF% of 60.16. In the 26:43 the game was tied they had an xGF% of 31.54. Satistically pretty soundly outplayed and this matches at least my eye test where I thought LA carried most of the play in the third period.

But people will jump on this to say 'see the Oilers were bad defensively!!1' when what actually happened was the opposite. When LA played with pace instead of just sitting in the trap We couldn't get anything going offensively.

Good post, though I'm not sure how you were able to generate that in NST. What I'd like to look at is jus the defensive stats instead of xGF% because it was clear that Edmonton had a harder time generating offence when the score was tied, but I don't think there was as much variance in the defensive rates.

 

[Louis Cypher]

I can’t even count how many times tonight I said “what the f*** are you doing Ceci”

I get he’s not a top pairing D. But he makes decisions like a junior high kid.

Clears it into the LA corner instead of into the wide open net on the 2 on one. LOL

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah look... I'm all about errors. I think it's splitting hairs to assign any blame to anyone on that OT goal. That's why I think you were barking up the wrong tree on OT SPCT and OT GAA, since i) statistically it makes no sense to do it and ii) you can't really blame Skinner on that goal.

The biggest errors in the game were (in order of occurrence): Kempe1: Bouchard+Foegele, Kempe2: Bouchard, Doughty: Kulak+Skinner, Fiala: Skinner. With an honorable mention for whatever defender was too lazy to box out the LA forward from the fly-by screen on Fiala's goal (but it shouldn't have mattered on a shot from that distance)

And all of those happened before OT.

Sorry to intervene in a great to read exchange but you already acknowledged Skinner has a slow glove hand.

I share the view that his glove hand is not NHL starter caliber.


But when you state "you can't blame Skinner on the goal" (In a game in which Skinner was beat glove hand 3-4 times. ) are you not blaming him because you already absolve him of having a slow glove hand? I'm curious about this.

Talbot made that save multiple times in the game, and in look off situations where the danger was different players at once.

Thing is Skinner had clear view of OT shot and it went in. He could even anticipate where shot was going because Kings have been going there on him a fair amount for two playoffs running.

Kings beat Skinner yesterday on same placed shot 3X and hit a crossbar on another. Just food for thought.

Last question is Skinner glove hand too low in these situations. Can he adjust positioning glove a bit higher without compromising his blockform style?

 

[bone]

Yeah look... I'm all about errors. I think it's splitting hairs to assign any blame to anyone on that OT goal. That's why I think you were barking up the wrong tree on OT SPCT and OT GAA, since i) statistically it makes no sense to do it and ii) you can't really blame Skinner on that goal.

The biggest errors in the game were (in order of occurrence):
Kempe1: Bouchard+Foegele,
Kempe2: Bouchard,
Doughty: Kulak+Skinner,
Fiala: Skinner.
With a dishonorable mention for whatever defender was too lazy to box out the LA forward from the fly-by screen on Fiala's goal (but it shouldn't have mattered on a shot from that distance)

And all of those happened before OT.

Fair enough. I am using those moreso for shock value, but it is concerning that he'd now have to play 44 minutes of overtime shutout hockey to even get to 3.00 GAA.

I can't disagree with you on your assessment of responsibility on those goals, though I do think Skinner should have a tiny bit on the first one could have played it better. I wouldn't have an issue with it if he had made a save on a similar quality shot at some point but he never really did. It's really the same issue I have on the 5th. Either goal on its own, I wouldn't blame Skinner, but the fact he let in both and never really had a big save at some other point is my bigger issue as Edmonton didn't really allow a lot of great chances against. We can't expect players to never make any mistakes, we need our goalie to erase at least some of them. Last night he couldn't erase any.

I'm not ready to fire him into the sun as he did eventually get on track and had a couple good runs this year, but he doesn't have a lot of time to figure it out so a bad game feels more like two bad games when it is playoffs because of how important every goal is.

 

[oXo Cube]

Good post, though I'm not sure how you were able to generate that in NST. What I'd like to look at is jus the defensive stats instead of xGF% because it was clear that Edmonton had a harder time generating offence when the score was tied, but I don't think there was as much variance in the defensive rates.

Have to do some filtering to get it to isolate to an individual game. but there's a dropdown for it in the team stats section.

Also, you would be correct. 0.99 xGA when trailing and 0.89xGA when tied. Basically the same and neither number is concerningly large.

Edmonton had an xGF 5v5 of 0.41 with the game tied and 1.5 when trailing.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Good post, though I'm not sure how you were able to generate that in NST. What I'd like to look at is jus the defensive stats instead of xGF% because it was clear that Edmonton had a harder time generating offence when the score was tied, but I don't think there was as much variance in the defensive rates.

Stats don't say much about the mental aspects of the game though. The sense of urgency the Kings would have in third period and OT would be borne of how they've seen multiple goal results slip away in the playoffs against the Oilers. The Kings had to have this one, played with absolute desperation to get it. KIngs have been burned by the Oilers in comeback games. This time they got the result.

Could even be speculated the Oilers could be more confident they were getting the result. Maybe didn' work as hard in third. That said I thought the Oilers spent more effort in the first 5 periods of the series than the Kings. Could have been some fatigue in what are hard hitting hard to play games. (what the Kings want)

 

[Juxta Position]

i didn't read the whole thread (which by the way is hilarious that it's 35+ pages for a loss) but even though Skinner was not great, that was as sloppy a game defensively as i've seen the Oilers play in a while.

I chalk that one up to overconfidence on the Oilers part. they spanked the Kings in game 1 and forgot that they are actually playing an NHL team, got cocky, and lost. It happens occasionally to this Oilers team, and they needed a wake-up call that even though they are the favorite to win, the kings are still an NHL team that made the playoffs.

I have full confidence that this game reminded them that even though they are the better team, they need to play like it because the Kings are NOT just gonna roll over and die.

But what this game also showed is that even though they played basically pond hockey defensively, they were still able to push the Kings to overtime. that means that at their best, they are a vastly superior team to the Kings....they just need to play like it.

 

[McAsuno]

Drop foegeles minutes then

Won’t disagree with him as well.

 

[oXo Cube]

Stats don't say much about the mental aspects of the game though. The sense of urgency the Kings would have in third period and OT would be borne of how they've seen multiple goal results slip away in the playoffs against the Oilers. The Kings had to have this one, played with absolute desperation to get it. KIngs have been burned by the Oilers in comeback games. This time they got the result.

Could even be speculated the Oilers could be more confident they were getting the result. Maybe didn' work as hard in third. That said I thought the Oilers spent more effort in the first 5 periods of the series than the Kings. Could have been some fatigue in what are hard hitting hard to play games. (what the Kings want)

FWIW, the stats im posting at this present moment only tell the story of what happened. The why is up to interpretation.

In my personal opinion, the Kings clearly wanted this game more than Edmonton did. A tank emptier of a game, so to speak. They almost blew it anyway because trapping doesn't work against the Oilers and they have horrible special teams.

 

[Navx94]

Glad we got the stinker out of the way early. Oilers will bounce back and show they’re a class above the kings. Skinner needs to get his game together if we want any shot at an extended playoffs.

 

[guymez]

FWIW, the stats im posting at this present moment only tell the story of what happened. The why is up to interpretation.

In my personal opinion, the Kings clearly wanted this game more than Edmonton did. A tank emptier of a game, so to speak. They almost blew it anyway because trapping doesn't work against the Oilers and they have horrible special teams.

Fair to say that the Kings cant play any better than they did last game.
We all know that isnt true for the Oilers and as it turned out the Oilers (despite not having close to their best game) still came within 1 shot of winning the game.

Thats one positive we can take from last nights game. We just saw the Kings at their best and it was barely good enough to win the game.
Bodes well for the rest of the series.

 

[WaitingForUser]

It wasn't quite a clear cut breakaway. Nurse had enough contain and has enough foot speed that it wasn't going to be a home free breakaway. It was a partially contained break that made Kopitar take the shot and perhaps faster than he'd want too but which probably helped as Skinner had less time to react.

that said I don't buy the 7.7% but I'm biased. My feel watching that play and the puck landing on Kopitars stick there was that it was very dangerous with Skinner in net, in OT. As @bones earlier posts point out Skinner makes very few stops in OT, I don't know that he has a HDSC save in OT in playoffs.

This one was trouble as soon as Kopitar got the puck on his stick. That Byfield not only did this but its what he was attempting is great on him. I've seen Byfield do this before.

True it wasn’t quite clear cut. And I said the exact same thing when the puck went right to Kopitar. I knew it was over truly a masterful play by Byfield on that one. Lucky bounce aside we had our chance as well and McDavid couldn’t get his stick on the pass. It could have gone either way. On to game 3 now and try to get home ice back.

 

[Messrules11]

Wow, thought I’d cruise over to the Kings board and see what they were saying about last nights game. Post #1114 is directed at ALL of us.
Must have taken him 2 hours to list all of that.

 

[bucks_oil]

Sorry to intervene in a great to read exchange but you already acknowledged Skinner has a slow glove hand.

I share the view that his glove hand is not NHL starter caliber.


But when you state "you can't blame Skinner on the goal" (In a game in which Skinner was beat glove hand 3-4 times. ) are you not blaming him because you already absolve him of having a slow glove hand? I'm curious about this.

Talbot made that save multiple times in the game, and in look off situations where the danger was different players at once.

Thing is Skinner had clear view of OT shot and it went in. He could even anticipate where shot was going because Kings have been going there on him a fair amount for two playoffs running.

Kings beat Skinner yesterday on same placed shot 3X and hit a crossbar on another. Just food for thought.

Last question is Skinner glove hand too low in these situations. Can he adjust positioning glove a bit higher without compromising his blockform style?

As a matter of principle, every player has physical limitations. I don't fault physical limitations. They aren't errors, they aren't in your control.

As a matter of principle, every player can follow a system, every player can know their responsibilities. Errors in systems play and tactical play are mental errors... sometimes they are not preventable (not every player is that smart I suppose), but most times they are preventable.

As a goalie and as a coach, I expect excellence in your mental game regardless of what position you play. When an error occurs it gets talked about. It gets owned.

Skinner's glove hand is certainly not a strength, but I don't accept that it's below NHL quality.

Having said that, I wouldn't expect Skinner to rip off too many glove saves on perfectly placed shots anymore than I would expect Perry to win a foot race to a puck... but yeah, understanding and compensating for your weaknesses is the way to improve your game.

Errors are errors. They happen, but they are to be loathed and they are owned.

Limitations are opportunities for self-improvement... and I do see growth in Skinner's game. He's also tactically, one of the better goalies we've had recently (so he does have some redeeming qualities).

Having said that, he totally blew it on Fiala's goal, so I don't even know why we are talking about the OT goal except because of our own emotions - which are irrelevant to the analysis of yesterday's game.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Wow, thought I’d cruise over to the Kings board and see what they were saying about last nights game. Post #1114 is directed at ALL of us.
Must have taken him 2 hours to list all of that.

That poor guy must live a lonely life if he does that after a playoff game

 

[Broberg Speed]

Yeah look... I'm all about errors. I think it's splitting hairs to assign any blame to anyone on that OT goal. That's why I think you were barking up the wrong tree on OT SPCT and OT GAA, since i) statistically it makes no sense to do it and ii) you can't really blame Skinner on that goal.

The biggest errors in the game were (in order of occurrence):
Kempe1: Bouchard+Foegele,
Kempe2: Bouchard,
Doughty: Kulak+Skinner,
Fiala: Skinner.
With a dishonorable mention for whatever defender was too lazy to box out the LA forward from the fly-by screen on Fiala's goal (but it shouldn't have mattered on a shot from that distance)

And all of those happened before OT.

Today I'm having a hard time envisioning the Oilers winning this series, they play the wrong way.

I'd add I don't see McLeod as an Oiler moving forward.

Need new line combinations for next game, it seems to me McLeod is the big reason for this.

Also I'm glad Foegele's contract is up. He can take his low hockey IQ 20 goal game elsewhere.

And we knew Skinner was going to be a problem before the regular season even begun, never mind the playoffs.

 

[bone]

Wow, thought I’d cruise over to the Kings board and see what they were saying about last nights game. Post #1114 is directed at ALL of us.
Must have taken him 2 hours to list all of that.

Gotta commend the effort there. I'd never spend that much time reading another fanbases gameday thread. Nothing untruthful that I could see though the snippets occasionally miss the intended tone or context.

 

[bucks_oil]

Fair enough. I am using those moreso for shock value, but it is concerning that he'd now have to play 44 minutes of overtime shutout hockey to even get to 3.00 GAA.

I can't disagree with you on your assessment of responsibility on those goals, though I do think Skinner should have a tiny bit on the first one could have played it better. I wouldn't have an issue with it if he had made a save on a similar quality shot at some point but he never really did. It's really the same issue I have on the 5th. Either goal on its own, I wouldn't blame Skinner, but the fact he let in both and never really had a big save at some other point is my bigger issue as Edmonton didn't really allow a lot of great chances against. We can't expect players to never make any mistakes, we need our goalie to erase at least some of them. Last night he couldn't erase any.

I'm not ready to fire him into the sun as he did eventually get on track and had a couple good runs this year, but he doesn't have a lot of time to figure it out so a bad game feels more like two bad games when it is playoffs because of how important every goal is.

I don't worry about him making either of those two saves... that isn't his game.

His game is (generally) exceptional positioning, making the saves he's expected to and not messing up very often. He's like the exact opposite of a Cujo or Smith (who each could learn a thing or two about positioning from Skinner).

Last night he messed up big time on Fiala and a bit on Doughty... focus on those, I'm sure that's what Skinner is doing.

Skinner is (generally) a low-event guy. If all of our players play low event games, we're going to win this series based on talent.

 

[joestevens29]

Wow, thought I’d cruise over to the Kings board and see what they were saying about last nights game. Post #1114 is directed at ALL of us.
Must have taken him 2 hours to list all of that.

Wow that was something to see. Didn't read it as scrolling took long enough

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

What's the difference between the now or potentially the conference finals? Unlike Vegas, the Kings don't even care about making a playoff run, they just want to beat the Oilers.

1. Of course the Kings care about making a run. I think you meant they are not expected to. Home playoff games = profit
2. The difference is we give teams two chances to try to knock out Vegas. The difference is we get an easier path to potentially rest up more than our opponents. The difference is we have a higher chance of going deep so we get more playoff hockey to watch

All you people that wanted Vegas over LAK are crazy

I haven't been impressed with his performance these playoffs so far. Only one ES point and his line is getting caved. He's been subpar all season and that trend seems to be continuing into the playoffs. I was expecting him to step up for the playoffs, but so far, I haven't seen it. He seems to play better on the road than at home, so we'll see

Yup. Hope so

 

[WaitingForUser]

1. Of course the Kings care about making a run. I think you meant they are not expected to. Home playoff games = profit
2. The difference is we give teams two chances to try to knock out Vegas. The difference is we get an easier path to potentially rest up more than our opponents. The difference is we have a higher chance of going deep so we get more playoff hockey to watch

All you people that wanted Vegas over LAK are crazy


Yup. Hope so

Just to add to the first point here. It was Vegas that obviously scared to face us in the first round. It’s quite obvious they threw the final game on purpose.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Wow, thought I’d cruise over to the Kings board and see what they were saying about last nights game. Post #1114 is directed at ALL of us.
Must have taken him 2 hours to list all of that.

Wow someone had far far too much on their hands to copy all that

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Just to add to the first point here. It was Vegas that obviously scared to face us in the first round. It’s quite obvious they threw the final game on purpose.

Hey I agree 1000 percent

They said we were their toughest matchup