OT: Assessing a New League, the Alliance of American Football

[cutchemist42]

So I know it's not hockey but really, how often do we get to discuss a new league coming around. Figured I would start this after the first week and say some thoughts.

1) As I understand it from others on Twitter, this league is using the San Fran Uber venture capitalist model of undercutting with low costs until their competition (XFL?) gives up, as there no other way to explain the low commercials working long term? Saw Arash toss out that the initial investment might be close to a billion, not exactly sure the true amount.

2) saw some questioning once again with lack of commercials how the league can sustain the 3 year salaries and paying for tuition.

3) Not many comparables....but the XFL launched with a much higher TV number than dropped

4) I like the markets they picked actually. They went directly into 2 NFL markets which surprised me as there's no way of avoiding the minor league status there, but not sure what else I would have gone with in the south?

5) trying the different rules is interesting, although I personally dont like how neteured the defence rules are to NFL/NCAA.

6) I actually dirnt expect for so many games to get on TV so the NFL network/TNT news surprised me. Good for visibility.

7) I dont see Vinces league doing this next year,but the broadcast last night was very clear that they want this to be a developmental/farm league I thought. Not my original thought but some think this league simply wants to bought by the NFL eventually. I know football is a different beast, but how many farm leagues maintain TV support?

8) I clearly dont think there's room for Vinces league and this. I was surprised to hear the XFL will also be a Spring league. What's really going to make them stand out from each other?

What do guys think?

Click to read more...

 

[Fenway]

I swear I didn't even know this league was starting up until I tuned to local news on CBS last night in Boston and the tail end of a game was on. I knew games would be on CBS Sports Network and NFL but was surprised to see it on CBS.

The USFL proved 35 years ago there was a market for spring football but the egocentric owner of the New Jersey Generals wanted war with the NFL. The USFL won their court case against the NFL and were awarded damages 0f $3 and the league folded.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Even if there was a team in my city or even nearby I wouldn't give a single f*** about this league.

 

[gstommylee]

I don't see this lasting long.

 

[Howie Hodge]

The replay official missed an obvious drop today. The on field officials came tot the conclusion it was a drop, but he told them to go with the original call. They called it a completion. That was in the 3 minutes I saw.

No interest in this league originally, and the poorly handled replay only confirmed my feelings.

Nice uniforms though.

 

[PCSPounder]

There aren't enough half-decent quarterbacks to make for a good passing game when you cull out the not-so-quick college wannabe defenses. That's where I found this (and any other effort like this that has happened to date) lacking.

Oh, as for neutered defense rules... did you ever see the ESPN film about the XFL? Specifically where they realized the audience expected total maimings on the field and everyone on the inside realized THAT was unsustainable? If this league becomes of any use to anyone, it'll be in minimizing that aspect while providing something that might be watchable enough for the NFL to adopt it. I'm not holding my breath, of course.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Took a look at Arizona ticket prices since I'll be out there in a few weeks. Cheapest is $20 in the endzone, but most tickets are $50+. Way too much for an unproven product. No wonder the place was empty.

 

[BattleBorn]

There's a place for a competing football league.

The issue isn't competing with the NFL, it's competing with the sports programming the media world needs except the NFL. If they're smart, the AAF won't compete with the NFL's ratings, they'll compete with the ratings the networks that might broadcast them would get versus another episode of "Which Singer is that" or "The Ladies of Santa Barbara."

These guys always screw up trying to make it work against "football," but if they can draw decent ratings for sports, I think they're okay. As sad as it is, I think an AAF (or whatever) would draw better on NBCSN versus a Preds/Hawks game, and that's there they need to hang out.

Try to beat the NHL and low level CFB or NBA games, and I think you've got a business.

 

[Hoser]

^Preach!^

There's no point going head-to-head with the NFL, that's financial suicide, but go for the low-hanging fruit.

Somewhat encouraging results from Saturday night: they beat ratings of an NBA game on ABC at the same time. That said both sporting events were watched by fewer viewers than a re-run of America's Got Talent on NBC...

 

[cutchemist42]

AAF makes a strong ratings debut, but it's tough to draw too many conclusions

AAF Maked Sttong Ratings Debut but Tough to Draw Conclusions.

Opening weekend the crowds averaged 19 000 with the attendance being worst in the comparable NFL market,which I think is a concern.

I just wonder if football is big enough in the states to handle 3 year contract amounts they are offering plus tuition with those attendance numbers and low commercials?

I just think a proper farm league should be playing the same defense rules as the league it's trying to be absorbed by. Otherwise you have to discount how offensive players do in this league while giving maybe defensive players more credit. I just think it needs to be more comparable.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Really surprised there isn't a pure development league for football, but I guess the religion of College football makes that impossible.

I know one thing - AAF and the XFL cannot co-exist.

 

[DoyleG]

There's a place for a competing football league.

The issue isn't competing with the NFL, it's competing with the sports programming the media world needs except the NFL. If they're smart, the AAF won't compete with the NFL's ratings, they'll compete with the ratings the networks that might broadcast them would get versus another episode of "Which Singer is that" or "The Ladies of Santa Barbara."

These guys always screw up trying to make it work against "football," but if they can draw decent ratings for sports, I think they're okay. As sad as it is, I think an AAF (or whatever) would draw better on NBCSN versus a Preds/Hawks game, and that's there they need to hang out.

Try to beat the NHL and low level CFB or NBA games, and I think you've got a business.

The AAF isn't.

They are relying on the NFL to provide the broadcast window (Most of the games will be on the NFL Network).

 

[BJNT]

Really surprised there isn't a pure development league for football, but I guess the religion of College football makes that impossible.

I know one thing - AAF and the XFL cannot co-exist.

If one or both leagues work I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a merger between them. Thus there would be an XFC and a AAFC along with either two NFL teams sharing one AAF team as an affiliate or NFL teams buying current AAF or XFL teams or starting their own and all 32 would have their own individual affiliate.

 

[PCSPounder]

There's a place for a competing football league.

The issue isn't competing with the NFL, it's competing with the sports programming the media world needs except the NFL. If they're smart, the AAF won't compete with the NFL's ratings, they'll compete with the ratings the networks that might broadcast them would get versus another episode of "Which Singer is that" or "The Ladies of Santa Barbara."

These guys always screw up trying to make it work against "football," but if they can draw decent ratings for sports, I think they're okay. As sad as it is, I think an AAF (or whatever) would draw better on NBCSN versus a Preds/Hawks game, and that's there they need to hang out.

Try to beat the NHL and low level CFB or NBA games, and I think you've got a business.

The ratings have to be a LOT stronger to overcome the following:

• The inevitable comparisons
• INSURANCE COSTS
• Costs of operating larger stadiums (because the smaller ones won't be big enough)
• Also, insurance costs, because they went up that much since the last time I typed it

Some of the recent failed leagues have proven there isn't really a market for this unless you can get it on major television. That and the NFL are the only thing propping this up. Even without insurance being where it is now, the economies of scale were part of what doomed the XFL (which did make it onto major television).

Now... if they're willing to go to smaller rosters (which probably helped the CFL when they were at one of their low points), then maybe the scale can change. Who knows if, down the line, some team takes over an abandoned MLS stadium (we're 2-4 years away from having one) and tries to make a go of it... that'll be an interesting experiment... and also justify the prices they're paying in Arizona. But ask me if I'd rather pay $50 for this or $65 for a standing room ticket in Eugene for UO and, well, you can guess my answer.

 

[cutchemist42]

The ratings have to be a LOT stronger to overcome the following:

• The inevitable comparisons
• INSURANCE COSTS
• Costs of operating larger stadiums (because the smaller ones won't be big enough)
• Also, insurance costs, because they went up that much since the last time I typed it

Some of the recent failed leagues have proven there isn't really a market for this unless you can get it on major television. That and the NFL are the only thing propping this up. Even without insurance being where it is now, the economies of scale were part of what doomed the XFL (which did make it onto major television).

Now... if they're willing to go to smaller rosters (which probably helped the CFL when they were at one of their low points), then maybe the scale can change. Who knows if, down the line, some team takes over an abandoned MLS stadium (we're 2-4 years away from having one) and tries to make a go of it... that'll be an interesting experiment... and also justify the prices they're paying in Arizona. But ask me if I'd rather pay $50 for this or $65 for a standing room ticket in Eugene for UO and, well, you can guess my answer.

Not necessarily directed at you, but your post made me think about the need for major television. Does the need for major television only apply to minor league football? I mean, we dont necessarily criticize the AHL, AAA Baseball, or the G League for not being on major television, we just expect it to be supported by ticket sales/local tv/parent clubs.

Does the AAFL/minor league football need the tv because of the salaries they guaranteed and other costs? AT the same time, they are limiting commercials so what would make tv work for them?

 

[jkrdevil]

Not necessarily directed at you, but your post made me think about the need for major television. Does the need for major television only apply to minor league football? I mean, we dont necessarily criticize the AHL, AAA Baseball, or the G League for not being on major television, we just expect it to be supported by ticket sales/local tv/parent clubs.

Does the AAFL/minor league football need the tv because of the salaries they guaranteed and other costs? AT the same time, they are limiting commercials so what would make tv work for them?

The player salaries for those other leagues you mentioned are paid for by the major league affiliate.

The league could work in theory, but not as it presently formed. I can’t imagine many people are going to stick around and watch a washout like 30-year Matt Simms or Trent Richardson play. Guys who we know at this point aren’t good enough to be in the nfl.

For players they need to target the younger tweener players. Guys just finished college, on the bubble of NFL roster who could benefit from additional reps. If they would be able to graduate guys to become productive NFL players then you have something to sell. An age limit may help.

One of the things these league should look at (and maybe the XFL would be in better position) is targeting at signing guys not yet eligible for the draft. Like a player who has excelled in college, but has a year remaining before being draft eligible and could use a more professional environment to develop. You aren’t going to compete against the NFL for talent but you could poach the NCAA.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Not necessarily directed at you, but your post made me think about the need for major television. Does the need for major television only apply to minor league football? I mean, we dont necessarily criticize the AHL, AAA Baseball, or the G League for not being on major television, we just expect it to be supported by ticket sales/local tv/parent clubs.

Does the AAFL/minor league football need the tv because of the salaries they guaranteed and other costs? AT the same time, they are limiting commercials so what would make tv work for them?

Football is an inherently national game. It works because teams play once a week, its readily available on TV, and it's the best sport to gamble on. And most people would much rather watch it at home than in person.

So no, I don't think it works as a localized league that's just "something to do for a night out" the way the other 3 sports are.

 

[PCSPounder]

Not necessarily directed at you, but your post made me think about the need for major television. Does the need for major television only apply to minor league football? I mean, we dont necessarily criticize the AHL, AAA Baseball, or the G League for not being on major television, we just expect it to be supported by ticket sales/local tv/parent clubs.

Does the AAFL/minor league football need the tv because of the salaries they guaranteed and other costs? AT the same time, they are limiting commercials so what would make tv work for them?

Insurance costs THAT much for a venture like this, in ways that it doesn't for the other sports you mention... including hockey.

Plus these aren't small rosters.

It's also basically suicide to try to run games for a few sponsors. Previous leagues have proven that 5,000-seat and 10,000-seat venues simply don't provide the economy of scale for the game (without a somewhat substantial "alumni base" if you want to talk small college ball).

All that's been proven is that the sport creates, MAYBE, a large curiosity base. XFL started off with a 10 rating and CBS got a 2.2 for this (and there's an argument that, in the era where streaming is starting to compete with everyone, those could be considered "similar numbers"). To assume those numbers will continue is folly. Can AAF buck that with some sort of blitz package? Are you seeing a blitz package right now?

 

[cutchemist42]

Insurance costs THAT much for a venture like this, in ways that it doesn't for the other sports you mention... including hockey.

Plus these aren't small rosters.

It's also basically suicide to try to run games for a few sponsors. Previous leagues have proven that 5,000-seat and 10,000-seat venues simply don't provide the economy of scale for the game (without a somewhat substantial "alumni base" if you want to talk small college ball).

All that's been proven is that the sport creates, MAYBE, a large curiosity base. XFL started off with a 10 rating and CBS got a 2.2 for this (and there's an argument that, in the era where streaming is starting to compete with everyone, those could be considered "similar numbers"). To assume those numbers will continue is folly. Can AAF buck that with some sort of blitz package? Are you seeing a blitz package right now?

So if you believe Arash Madani, the venture capital money for this league is $750mil to $1bil. (I personally dislike him as a reporter for any sport he covers but I'm taking him at his word) Whats the end goal for a group burning that kind of money? (Not directing this at you personally, just further wondering out-loud)

How much more of a folly then is Vince for trying a 2nd time?

 

[Newsworthy]

Great football league. NFL in danger now of losing fans.

 

[cutchemist42]

Feb. 14: Thursdays with Burkie - Sportsnet.ca

Bill Polian was on Primetime Sports around the 1:30 mark to discuss the league.

• Kinda using those Vice techniques (climate change vs global warming, war on terror) to describe the league. I think developmental league causes a different reaction than farm/minor league does. After hearing this interview, I even more think that their main hope is to be absorbed by the NFL at some point.
• I HATE the way he talked about the Clarrett court ruling when it came to towing the NFL line on letting play at a certain age. I found that ruling bogus and the reasoning IMO applies even less to a minor league than it did concerning the NFL.
• I wish one of them had asked about the finances concerning sponsorship money with little commercials.
• I think Richard Deitsch brought up a good point....the league is already cutting off half of the country with no regional ties to these Southern teams.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Feb. 14: Thursdays with Burkie - Sportsnet.ca

Bill Polian was on Primetime Sports around the 1:30 mark to discuss the league.

• Kinda using those Vice techniques (climate change vs global warming, war on terror) to describe the league. I think developmental league causes a different reaction than farm/minor league does. After hearing this interview, I even more think that their main hope is to be absorbed by the NFL at some point.
• I HATE the way he talked about the Clarrett court ruling when it came to towing the NFL line on letting play at a certain age. I found that ruling bogus and the reasoning IMO applies even less to a minor league than it did concerning the NFL.
• I wish one of them had asked about the finances concerning sponsorship money with little commercials.
• I think Richard Deitsch brought up a good point....the league is already cutting off half of the country with no regional ties to these Southern teams.

Most players just out of HS CANNOT play in NFL, they will be killed. They need time to finish growing physically. This isn't NBA.

 

[BigZ65]

Watched two games. There was one decent QB. Honestly think the blitzing rules hurt the quarterbacks even more as reading a defense with 7-8 in coverage and delivering a timely and accurate ball is going to be difficult for all of them. At least allowing more blitzing will ensure open receivers, just need smart pre-snap reads.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Great football league. NFL in danger now of losing fans.

Haha

 

[NickWIHockey]

i saw bits of the game, and it was.. ok Clearly not NFL -level, and comparable to the XFL. people forget the USFL had freaking Reggie White playing in it , that would be as if a rival league to the NHL had Gretzky or Lemeiux playing in it