Pre-Game Talk: Oilers @ Leafs - HNIC 5PM

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
76,032
36,196
Alberta
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I’m nearing the very top of the pyramid.
Nah it feels different, truly. They came back from 2 goals while limiting the best team in the league in their barn. That's a different kind of win. No McDrai heroics (not that those don't count obviously), just a team playing as hard as they can and finding a way.

I believe in this team.
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
33,500
13,349
Nah it feels different, truly. They came back from 2 goals while limiting the best team in the league in their barn. That's a different kind of win. No McDrai heroics (not that those don't count obviously), just a team playing as hard as they can and finding a way.

I believe in this team.
I agree.
This feels nothing like it did before primarily because this team is showing that it can win in multiple ways.
This lineup is legitimately good enough to beat any team in the league.

They stomped the Leafs the last time they played and the Leafs should be very concerned about this game.
The Leafs are a very good team and this Oilers team is good enough to beat them twice in a row,
 

FanOfSadTeam

Registered User
Dec 12, 2010
9,440
9,846
Untitled.jpg


Oh I'm sure they'd love that
 

5 Mins 4 Ftg

Life is better with no expectations.
Sponsor
Apr 3, 2016
49,473
83,102
Edmonton
Nah it feels different, truly. They came back from 2 goals while limiting the best team in the league in their barn. That's a different kind of win. No McDrai heroics (not that those don't count obviously), just a team playing as hard as they can and finding a way.

I believe in this team.

Thats why I am near the top of the pyramid! My only concern is goaltending and if Skinner can hold up during the playoffs. Otherwise the additions of Ekholm and his impact, VD, Kane returning, Yamo returning to form, and depth scoring is grounds for optimism.
 

djbard99

Registered User
Feb 11, 2023
201
208
Not having a great feeling about this one but I would have easily taken 2-1 on this trip. Will be watching this with 2 other Ont Oil fans in a crowded pro Leafs pub in London Ontario. Best Pizza outside of Edmonton though, it's no Devon Florida Pizza, Royal Pizza or the old Rosebowl Pizza but it's damn good and very very cheesy deep dish!View attachment 666606
Off topic on this board but what’s the best pizza here? Anyone wanna chime in I’ll try it tonight
 

bone

5-14-6-1
Jun 24, 2003
8,696
7,218
Edmonton
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Unless we collapse like the jets, we are a playoff team.

At this point even a .500 record the rest of the way would require 2 of the following 3 scenarios to occur, Calgary going 13-4, Nashville 14-6, and Winnipeg 11-6.

Considering the 16 games include 7 games vs. Anaheim, Arizona and San Jose, less than .500 would mean Edmonton doesn't deserve to play in the playoffs.
 

bone

5-14-6-1
Jun 24, 2003
8,696
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Edmonton
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It appears Koekkoek is on a one way deal, doesn't show he is on LTIR or anything. I know about Skinner's deal, but we aren't losing any pieces and if needed could add a RH dman.

He was assigned to the minors and since he's under $1.125M his full cap is buried regardless whether on a one-way or two-way contract.

I don't think he ever reported to the minors though for non-hockey related issues and is ultimately considered non-roster regardless.
 
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iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
19,210
18,969
Edmonton
At this point even a .500 record the rest of the way would require 2 of the following 3 scenarios to occur, Calgary going 13-4, Nashville 14-6, and Winnipeg 11-6.

Considering the 16 games include 7 games vs. Anaheim, Arizona and San Jose, less than .500 would mean Edmonton doesn't deserve to play in the playoffs.

Yeah there is a reason odds sites have us at ~96.5% to make playoffs.

Screenshot_20230310-154048.png
 

iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
19,210
18,969
Edmonton
Though MoneyPuck is somewhat questionable. Up until just a couple weeks ago they had the Flames in the top 5 odds to win the cup. Still have them at 8th best odds to win the cup.

Their model likes teams that possess the puck. It over rates Carolina in a similar fashion.

Both these teams dominate possession and pace of play by large margins but finish less than you'd expect based on league average scoring chance metrics.

It also over rates us and Calgary a little bit because we get scored on more than you'd expect based on league average scoring chance metrics.

But it under rates us to some degree because we score more than league average scoring chance metrics.
 
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bone

5-14-6-1
Jun 24, 2003
8,696
7,218
Edmonton
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Their model likes teams that possess the puck. It over rates Carolina in a similar fashion.

Both these teams dominate possession and pace of play by large margins but finish less than you'd expect based on league average scoring chance metrics.

It also over rates us and Calgary a little bit because we get scored on more than you'd expect based on league average scoring chance metrics.

But it under rates us to some degree because we score more than league average scoring chance metrics.

Precisely why I don't put a ton of value on their rankings, as I think it tends to undervalue talent (ie. McDrai should be expected to convert chances at a greater rate than Svechnikov or Necas) even though it claims to be trying to factor it in.

I do like to look at them from time to time, particularly right now that it's actually showing Edmonton to be good even with the underlying numbers overall and not just McDrai/powerplay smoke show.
 

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