Confirmed with Link: Oilers Hired Michael Parkatti as Senior Director, Data & Analytics

[94 Oil Drops]

HOLY F***! They actually did it. The Oilers are now living in the 2020s!

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think everyone knew Mikko was a mistake at those dollars, but that's also when stupid shit was just happening behind the scenes.

Considering they then signed Jack Campbell for longer at a higher hit, I think it's safe to say the stupid shit behind the scenes isn't THAT far removed.

 

[joestevens29]

Considering they then signed Jack Campbell for longer at a higher hit, I think it's safe to say the stupid shit behind the scenes isn't THAT far removed.

While I don't disagree, we actually had first hand views of Koskinnen. He wasn't great the first year we had him then we reward him with a stupid extension for some reason.

 

[KlefDown]

analytics haters in absolute shambles rn

 

[Barrsy]

analytics haters in absolute shambles rn

Not sure there are alot of Analytic haters. Mostly guys who cant stand the slide rule kids who fervently & aggressively believe its the answer to everything.
Its a tool. Thats it. Like video.
It is ridiculous the Oilers did not have a dedicated department before now.

 

[oobga]

How many of you can actually say you manifested your job in a blog talking about why Mikko Koskinen should have never been signed?

View attachment 744880

That was definitely an obvious one, but it was so very Oilers. Bobby Burgers, Chia and everyone were fixated on a good 1 month run Kosko had and paid him top dollar. Even worse, Bobby Burgers said one of the reasons was because they we worried about having to get a goalie in the summer. I don't think that is at all valid either. No properly run team should be making such terrible deals because they're scared of having to do proper work in the summer. Every summer some good goalies shake loose. We just got pwned by a guy that was tossed around like he was near worthless that Vegas identified as having some potential and scooped up.

The Kassian deal, the Campbell deal. Some other really obvious ones that a proper analytics department should have been screaming to not do.

 

[joestevens29]

Not sure there are alot of Analytic haters. Mostly guys who cant stand the slide rule kids who fervently & aggressively believe its the answer to everything.
Its a tool. Thats it. Like video.
It is ridiculous the Oilers did not have a dedicated department before now.

I blame you. Why didn't you tell Daryl?

In all fairness and maybe I missed it, but I'm very curious how the whole Jackson thing came to fruition. Was Katz that afraid McDavid would actually leave or did Katz realize that it was time to get with the times?

Maybe Nicholson and Holland pushed back and Daryl decided to try something else?

 

[FlameChampion]

I blame you. Why didn't you tell Daryl?

In all fairness and maybe I missed it, but I'm very curious how the whole Jackson thing came to fruition. Was Katz that afraid McDavid would actually leave or did Katz realize that it was time to get with the times?

Maybe Nicholson and Holland pushed back and Daryl decided to try something else?

Sounded like Coffey was involved. But dont really know his role in it.

But yeah I dont know if Katz was afraid McDavid would leave or wanted to get with the times. Its a good question.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

I cannot pass judgement until I know how his body language is.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I like that Parkatti has some metrics on line matching and goalie usage. Does it seem accidental that he draws deep in those areas? Or is this purposeful to supplement what is seen as perhaps a deficit in the teams line matching and goalie usage. People know I think its the latter.

In anycase shout out to Parkatti for not being like Dellow and other analytics guys that lack basic social interaction skills. Seems like a nicer guy and not like the others that assume because they have some analytics that they're the only in the room that knows anything.

I like that Parkatti even works more within more typical statistical methodology and seems to have some background, learned or otherwise in it. Some of the analytics crew have often lacked firm understanding of all factors, third or extraneous variables and such that could impact data.

The social aspect and getting along isn't overstated. There will be more willingness for others to listen and heed what you have to say if your presentation is on the level rather than speaking top down.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Nice!

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

analytics haters in absolute shambles rn

literally no one thinks this

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

literally no one thinks this

Let him feel cool.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is an interesting Article Parkatti wrote about the play ins years ago if people haven't seen it.

Fixing the 2019-20 NHL Play-ins

Last Friday I published a thread on Twitter decrying the NHL’s proposed Play-in 24-team format for the 2019-20 Stanley Cup playoffs: What’s most insane about the 24-team suggested forma…

boysonthebus.com

I like the thinking outside of the box as well. For instance him saying that teams with a top record playing teams that would be outside the bubble should be spotted a game lead to reflect their better record in the season. That wasn't applied by NHL but its interesting thought process.

No way the play ins should have occurred as they did with a younger Oilers team facing a BlackHawks that was missing playoffs otherwise, but still had a core from SC days that could be dangerous. Especially with the offseason rest that the Hawks and Oilers got leading into the play ins. the team with more experience is going to prevail against a club with less playoff experience with the format involving limited, and least contact possible, opportunity to prepare. Due to the NHL inanity they mapped out a format wherein Hawks could be even said to have advantage. That the Oilers had earned tons more pts in regular season begat only home ice advantage.

 

[brentashton]

So which one of us/you is him…?

 

[CornKicker]

maybe one more person pulling data and pointing out the analytics combined with actual results will see that dustin schwartz is a huge drag on all and every goalie thats been here. statistically every one of them gets worse working with him

 

[joestevens29]

maybe one more person pulling data and pointing out the analytics combined with actual results will see that dustin schwartz is a huge drag on all and every goalie thats been here. statistically every one of them gets worse working with him

I wouldn't be shocked if that's one of the first things that happens. Maybe not just goalie related, but go through the data and see what it's telling you about everyone on this club.

Then both positive or negative start investigating who was responsible for bring in those players.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

This is an interesting Article Parkatti wrote about the play ins years ago if people haven't seen it.

Fixing the 2019-20 NHL Play-ins

Last Friday I published a thread on Twitter decrying the NHL’s proposed Play-in 24-team format for the 2019-20 Stanley Cup playoffs: What’s most insane about the 24-team suggested forma…

boysonthebus.com

I like the thinking outside of the box as well. For instance him saying that teams with a top record playing teams that would be outside the bubble should be spotted a game lead to reflect their better record in the season. That wasn't applied by NHL but its interesting thought process.

No way the play ins should have occurred as they did with a younger Oilers team facing a BlackHawks that was missing playoffs otherwise, but still had a core from SC days that could be dangerous. Especially with the offseason rest that the Hawks and Oilers got leading into the play ins. the team with more experience is going to prevail against a club with less playoff experience with the format involving limited, and least contact possible, opportunity to prepare. Due to the NHL inanity they mapped out a format wherein Hawks could be even said to have advantage. That the Oilers had earned tons more pts in regular season begat only home ice advantage.

It's an interesting hypothetical. Agree it's good insight into a curious brain, logic and modelling to puzzle out an inane NHL decision to give virtually every team an unearned participation ribbon to the NHL playoffs under surreal world conditions.

Personally, I think the practical solution would have been to eliminate the play-in and assign playoffs based on winning criteria (and other established tie breaking means as required) or stick to the established 7 game series format. With the shorter series format I imagine the percentages increase for an underdog to win versus getting to 4 over a 7 game series.

Again for me, Parkatti's hire has the critical foundation of strong education and training, diverse real world experience and application, enhanced by solid communications skills without necessarily talking down to prospective audiences. This is a valuable support function for traditional big business and industries and will add value to the Oilers organization with another lens through which to help decision making across all functions.

EDIT: The NHL moved away from its 5 game playoff format years ago because I believe it had tilted favourably to underdog teams and diminished the earned right of teams that were better over the regular season grind. Bizzaro land for the play-in to reward the weak with an opportunity to compete and secondly with a format more favourable to knocking off teams that had earned their way over a 70 game track.

 

[TheNumber4]

Lol this is quite funny

Congratulations to Michael Parkatti

Copper & Blue contributor Michael Parkatti has won the Oilers Hackathon 2.0!

www.coppernblue.com

The hell. What the hell is an Oilers Hadkathon and we had an Oilers Analytics Working Group in 2013?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

maybe one more person pulling data and pointing out the analytics combined with actual results will see that dustin schwartz is a huge drag on all and every goalie thats been here. statistically every one of them gets worse working with him

Will be interesting to see how/if the goaltender function is looked at differently. From a facts perspective though Schwartz has proven to be effective with the raw clay development phase of goaltenders with Skinner, Hart and Jarry all becoming established #1 NHL goaltenders before their age 25 seasons. What he hasn't been able to solve is mature phase age 30+ goaltenders with questionable mental strength, coping and resilience skills like Koskinen and Campbell.

I'm more curious about the organization decision making process that led to Campbell as 'the guy' and betting beaucoup money and term to get this team into a true Cup contender in its winning cycle. Last year had a massive chance of going sideways if the Schwartz trained Skinner had not put up a Calder Trophy finalist season. How might an analytics perspective enhance and augment the subjective eye test when it comes to the hugely important function of NHL goaltending a Cup Window Team and beyond.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Alright guys you got me. I’m Michael.

 

[TheNumber4]

The Drop Episode 1 gave us a glimpse of how our brain trust operates. It showed the TDL where we acquired Brassard. Essentially the decision was made by a board room consisting only of:

Kieth Gretzky - AGM / Bakersfield GM
Paul Coffey - Special Advisor to Katz
Bill Scott - AGM / Cap Cruncher
Archie Henderson (at the time) - Head of Pro Scouting
Tyler Wright (at the time) - Head of Amateur Scouting
Bobby Nicholson - Director of Hamburger Naming

And….

Justin Mahe - Manager of Analytics

So we’ve had “analytics” before. But how much did Holland consider them for his moves? You can get a sense watching how they deliberate decisions. Regarding Brassard, Holland goes over it with the board room as they contemplate the move:

“Well you’ve (Archie?) seen him a lot this year, and you’ve (Scott?) known him since he was 18 , he scored 16 pts in 30 games, that’s a 40 point pace, he can play center, he can play wing…. Oh and Justin what does your numbers say?”

Justin looks at his laptop and replies “Pretty good defensive rating”

That’s it. So on the home stretch to making a TDL addition. Essentially minutes away from making the decision on whether to trade for Brassard. Holland finally gets his analytical analysis input and it amounts to “Pretty good defensive rating”.

So while the Oilers finally look like they’re going to take Analytics seriously with this Parkatti hire, our GM and decision making process needs to actually use them. It needs to be ingrained in the process from the get go. It shouldn’t be just asking at the very last minute after a decision has already been made by eye test and reputation how do the numbers look. Holland may just be too old school to truly make analytics an important consideration. I think this again signals that Holland will be retired as GM soon. And for this new analytics era of the Oilers to really kick off, we may need him to.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

Boys on the Bus

Hockey Meets Math

boysonthebus.com

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's an interesting hypothetical. Agree it's good insight into a curious brain, logic and modelling to puzzle out an inane NHL decision to give virtually every team an unearned participation ribbon to the NHL playoffs under surreal world conditions.

EDIT: The NHL moved away from its 5 game playoff format years ago because I believe it had tilted favourably to underdog teams and diminished the earned right of teams that were better over the regular season grind. Bizzaro land for the play-in to reward the weak with an opportunity to compete and secondly with a format more favourable to knocking off teams that had earned their way over a 70 game track.

Not to want to go too OT here but the NHL was PURPOSELY allowing large market clubs that were missing the playoffs to get into the playoffs. This was the NHL changing rules on the fly, and doing it in the most cynical manner. The NHL basically rigged the system with the play ins that year allowing non playoff placed clubs to be in them.

 

[Spawn]

I’m glad that if we are hiring a stats blogger it is a guy who seems to have an actual background in analytics and isn’t just a guy with free time, an excel spreadsheet and a huge ego.

We will probably never really know the extent of his impact, but I’m always interested in how analytics get folded into decision making.